2011 Person of the Year

As 2011 winds down, it's time to pick a Calgary Grit Person of the Year for the 8th consecutive year. The criteria is simple - someone who made an impact on the Canadian political scene in 2011.

While I usually try to think outside the box on these picks, this year's selection is about as obvious as they come. In effect, I think it's the first time I've been on the same page as the Canadian Press. But before we get there, a few runner-ups.

In any other year, provincial politics would have been the story, as political junkies in nearly every province got their fix. In Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, PEI and Newfoundland, incumbent governments were returned to power in a series of fall elections that ranged from "boring" to "painfully boring".

More exciting may have been the provinces who didn't go to the polls. In British Columbia, Christy Clark become Premier by taking the BC Liberal leadership race over Kevin Fallon 52% to 48% on the third ballot. She promptly called a referendum where voters "extinguished" the HST.

In Alberta, you needed a program to keep track of the floor crossings, new parties, and surprise resignations. When the dust settled, Alison Redford emerged as Premier.

In Quebec, François Legault founded a new party and surged to first in the polls on his bold promise of not being Jean Charest or Pauline Marois.

So yes, Redford, Clark, McGuinty...a case could be made for any of them as the person of the year. Just not this year.



JACK LAYTON



There are few politicians who ever get the chance to go out on top. Sadly, Jack Layton did just that in 2011.

If we rewind back to the start of 2011, Ottawa was busy playing its favourite "will they or won't they" game of election speculation. Between Bev Oda's problem with "nots", the Conservative Party's problem with the rules of Parliament, and Bruce Carson's problem with escorts, the opposition parties smelled blood in the water. The Liberals had made it clear they were ready to vote down the government and Gilles Duceppe, knowing he was guaranteed at least 40 seats in the subsequent campaign, was set to force an election unless Stephen Harper gave him $5 billion for equalization, a new hockey arena, and daily piggyback rides around the House of Commons. Harper said he didn't want an "unnecessary election" but his eyes said "yes".

So it was all up to Jack. Layton had often mocked the Liberals for propping up the Harper government, only he himself tended to come down with a case of "making Parliament work" every time the Liberals found a backbone. Complicating the situation was hip surgery that left him needing a cane to walk.

Layton ended all the speculation 5 minutes after Jim Flaherty's budget speech, passing immediate judgment on the Harper government. We were off to the poll yet again, for what most figured to be a boring campaign with few surprises. The funny thing about surprises though, is that they tend to be unexpected, by definition.

So fast forward to April 12th, in a 70s-themed debate studio, when Jack Layton pulled off a tour de force. Barely able to stand without sweating a month earlier, Layton stood tall for two hours. Many of his lines were tacky - I rolled my eyes when he uttered "hash tag fail" and when he told Stephen Harper "you've changed, you used to care about the environment". But he connected with voters, both in terms of style and content, and left Michael Ignatieff reeling when he brought up the Liberal leader's less-than-exemplary attendance record. In 30 seconds, the great Michael Ignatieff experiment (and possibly the Liberal Party) was effectively over.

Layton was good the next night in Quebec, but he didn't need to be. He'd already made waves cheering on the Habs at local bars and everyone in Quebec was talking about his performance on tout le monde en parle. Layton soon overtook the Bloc in Quebec and, par conséquent, the Liberals. From there, all he had to do was surf the orange wave to Stornoway.

So by May 2nd, it was already obvious Jack Layton would be the newsmaker of the year. He had taken the NDP to record heights and done what Ed Broadbent and Tommy Douglas could not.

You all know the rest of the story - the tragedy and the tributes - since it dominated the headlines in August and September. Even beyond the grave, Layton left his mark, with the NDP making gains in most provincial elections. His departure also launched the NDP leadership race, and made the Liberal and Bloc races somewhat more meaningful.

Although Jack is gone, he'll continue to have a major impact on Canadian politics for years to come.


2010: Rob Ford and Naheed Nenshi
2009: Jim Flaherty
2008: Stephane Dion
2007: Jean Charest
2006: Michael Ignatieff
2005: Belinda Stronach
2004: Ralph Klein

Taste of Victory on the Danforth

There's a lot of talk today about the eventual by election for Jack Layton's Toronto-Danforth seat. Many Liberals are salivating at the prospect of a victory there which would pull them within a mere 67 seats of official opposition status:

Liberals hope to paint Layton’s Toronto riding red again

Liberal Party president Alfred Apps is counting out Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, predicting a two-way fight with the NDP for Jack Layton’s Toronto seat.

Mr. Apps, a Bay Street lawyer who knows the Toronto political landscape well, told The Globe Wednesday that Mr. Layton won the seat because of his “terrific municipal background and powerful personality.”

He added: “Jack actually won it on the strength of his personal reputation and charisma.”

Given that by elections are all about expectations, I certainly wouldn't be advising Alf Apps, or anyone else, to raise expectations of a Liberal win on the Danforth. But it's still likely worth examining just how probable a Liberal pick-up actually is.

For starters, we need to accept that anything can happen in a by election. In Kevin Lamoureux's Winnipeg North by election upset last year, NDP support fell from 62% to 41% while Liberal support jumped from 12% to 46%. So at least in theory, Jack Layton's 43-point victory in May is not an insurmountable hill to climb.

But that's still a mighty tall hill, which only looks taller when you take a proper scan of the landscape. As the map at the top of this post shows, the two ridings to the East of it fell to the NDP in May. A relative no-name, Matthew Kellway, beat a 6-term incumbent in the Beaches by 11 points. That's nothing to sneeze at.

The riding has gone NDP provincially the previous four elections - most recently by 6,500 votes. Yes, Peter Tabuns is a popular incumbent, but there are a lot of people in the riding who are used to voting orange, even when Jack's name isn't on the ballot.

Finally, it's a riding that, demographically, "should" be an NDP seat. When I put the Census demographics into the regression meat grinder, it comes out as the 16th strongest NDP seat in the country.

Add it all up, and the odds of an upset on the Danforth are exceedingly small. Raising hopes to the contrary is only setting Liberals up for disappointment.

Jack Layton, in Pictures

Although most of the tributes to Layton have focused on his role on Parliament Hill, he will be missed from coast to coast - cycling with Olivia, attending local festivals, marching in Pride parades and, yes, attending Star Trek conventions.

Jack

Jack Layton will lie in state for public visitations in the foyer of the House of Commons from 12:30 to 8 pm today and 9 am to 1:30 pm tomorrow. There will be a public visitation at Toronto City Hall all day Friday, and Saturday morning before the state funeral at Roy Thompson Hall.

Tributes have rolled in from across the country - you can read recounts of Jack's life from Randy Boswell, Andrew Duffy, Chantal Hebert, Stephen Maher, Lawrence Martin, John Doyle, Chris Macdonald, and Jeff Jedras. Friends and rivals have also weighed in - Stephen Harper, Ed Broadbent, Stephen Lewis, Bob Rae, and Paul Dewar amongst others.

The Chronicle Herald chronicles the reaction of Nova Scotia politicians, Jason Feteke gives the view from Alberta, and Kady O'Malley recaps Monday in Ottawa. The Star and Globe editorial boards have nothing but nice things to say. Even the Economist chimes in.

And then there's Christie Blatchford, who is peeved everyone is making such a big deal out of this and takes issue with Layton's "vainglorious" goodbye letter. I'll be the first to say there's nothing wrong with going against the societal convention of profusely praising even the most flawed public figures upon their passing, but it's hard to read Blatchford's piece without feeling like she's just a miserable person. Maybe she just had a bad Monday.

On the political side, Paul Wells and John Ivison reflect on the groundwork Layton laid for his crowning moment this spring, while Pundits Guide looks at Layton's electoral track record and the road ahead. She points out this will mean a Toronto Danforth by election, and one imagines that could tempt a few recently defeated Liberal MPs out of retirement - or perhaps a jump to federal politics for David Miller or Mike Layton.

John Ibbitson quite rightly reasons that Harper will be virtually unnoposed in Ottawa, with the NDP, Liberals, and (what's left of) the Bloc all in the midst of leadership races. Well, there is still Elizabeth May to hold his feet to the fire, I guess. Greg Weston and Jeffrey Simpson wonder what's next for the NDP.

On that topic, speculation has already ramped up about who will replace Layton, with Brian Topp (whose tribute to Layton can be read here) and Thomas Mulcair seen as the early favourites by "NDP insiders" (the Post profiles the full field here). That didn't take long.

Farewell Jack

It seems strange to think it was only a few months ago we were all watching Jack Layton give one of the greatest campaign performances in Canadian history. Yesterday morning he passed away, a harsh reminder that cancer can strike anyone, any time.

Although he had a long and accomplished career, that final campaign will be what Layton is best remembered for, and what most of today's tributes will focus on. There aren't a lot of politicians around these days who genuinely connect with voters, but Layton did just that, every step of the way. He told Canadians how he'd improve their lives and did it with a smile. Voters responded and the results were nothing short of historic.

Making it all the more impressive were the health challenges facing him. A year earlier, he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer. A month earlier, he was barely able to stand for more than a minute without breaking into a sweat. Yet there he was, cool and composed, looking more at ease than any of the other leaders. It was like the Curt Schilling bloody sock game - an athlete overcoming it all when the chips were done. The only difference - Jack did it for 39 straight days.

And while Layton will be remembered most for the 2011 campaign, where he will be missed most is in the day-to-day life of federal politics. He has been a fixture in Parliament since 2003, a period during which the Liberals burned through 6 leaders. Through confidence crisis, coalition crisis, and elections, Jack was always involved, the one mustached constant. It will be impossible to write about the rise of Stephen Harper, the fall of the Liberals, or the destruction of the Bloc without mentioning Jack. And through the political chaos, he did manage to wrestle out a few "results for people" along the way.

Although I've been critical of Layton at times, I respected his determination and never once doubted his sincerity. This spring, he not only made history - he made a generation of Canadians give a damn about politics. In this day age, that's a much greater and much more meaningful accomplishment than 103 seats.

Canadian politics are worse off without Jack.

Layton Says Goodbye

August 20, 2011

Toronto, Ontario

Dear Friends,

Tens of thousands of Canadians have written to me in recent weeks to wish me well. I want to thank each and every one of you for your thoughtful, inspiring and often beautiful notes, cards and gifts. Your spirit and love have lit up my home, my spirit, and my determination.

Unfortunately my treatment has not worked out as I hoped. So I am giving this letter to my partner Olivia to share with you in the circumstance in which I cannot continue.

I recommend that Hull-Aylmer MP Nycole Turmel continue her work as our interim leader until a permanent successor is elected.

I recommend the party hold a leadership vote as early as possible in the New Year, on approximately the same timelines as in 2003, so that our new leader has ample time to reconsolidate our team, renew our party and our program, and move forward towards the next election.

A few additional thoughts:

To other Canadians who are on journeys to defeat cancer and to live their lives, I say this: please don't be discouraged that my own journey hasn't gone as well as I had hoped. You must not lose your own hope. Treatments and therapies have never been better in the face of this disease. You have every reason to be optimistic, determined, and focused on the future. My only other advice is to cherish every moment with those you love at every stage of your journey, as I have done this summer.

To the members of my party: we've done remarkable things together in the past eight years. It has been a privilege to lead the New Democratic Party and I am most grateful for your confidence, your support, and the endless hours of volunteer commitment you have devoted to our cause. There will be those who will try to persuade you to give up our cause. But that cause is much bigger than any one leader. Answer them by recommitting with energy and determination to our work. Remember our proud history of social justice, universal health care, public pensions and making sure no one is left behind. Let's continue to move forward. Let's demonstrate in everything we do in the four years before us that we are ready to serve our beloved Canada as its next government.

To the members of our parliamentary caucus: I have been privileged to work with each and every one of you. Our caucus meetings were always the highlight of my week. It has been my role to ask a great deal from you. And now I am going to do so again. Canadians will be closely watching you in the months to come. Colleagues, I know you will make the tens of thousands of members of our party proud of you by demonstrating the same seamless teamwork and solidarity that has earned us the confidence of millions of Canadians in the recent election.

To my fellow Quebecers: On May 2nd, you made an historic decision. You decided that the way to replace Canada's Conservative federal government with something better was by working together in partnership with progressive-minded Canadians across the country. You made the right decision then; it is still the right decision today; and it will be the right decision right through to the next election, when we will succeed, together. You have elected a superb team of New Democrats to Parliament. They are going to be doing remarkable things in the years to come to make this country better for us all.

To young Canadians: All my life I have worked to make things better. Hope and optimism have defined my political career, and I continue to be hopeful and optimistic about Canada. Young people have been a great source of inspiration for me. I have met and talked with so many of you about your dreams, your frustrations, and your ideas for change. More and more, you are engaging in politics because you want to change things for the better. Many of you have placed your trust in our party. As my time in political life draws to a close I want to share with you my belief in your power to change this country and this world. There are great challenges before you, from the overwhelming nature of climate change to the unfairness of an economy that excludes so many from our collective wealth, and the changes necessary to build a more inclusive and generous Canada. I believe in you. Your energy, your vision, your passion for justice are exactly what this country needs today. You need to be at the heart of our economy, our political life, and our plans for the present and the future.

And finally, to all Canadians: Canada is a great country, one of the hopes of the world. We can be a better one -- a country of greater equality, justice, and opportunity. We can build a prosperous economy and a society that shares its benefits more fairly. We can look after our seniors. We can offer better futures for our children. We can do our part to save the world's environment. We can restore our good name in the world. We can do all of these things because we finally have a party system at the national level where there are real choices; where your vote matters; where working for change can actually bring about change. In the months and years to come, New Democrats will put a compelling new alternative to you. My colleagues in our party are an impressive, committed team. Give them a careful hearing; consider the alternatives; and consider that we can be a better, fairer, more equal country by working together. Don't let them tell you it can't be done.

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world.

All my very best,

Jack Layton

"If I have tried to bring anything to federal politics, it is the idea that hope and optimism should be at their heart"

Very sad news today, with Jack Layton announcing he is now battling a new form of cancer.

He will be taking a leave of absence as party leader to focus on getting health, and has recommended that Nycole Turmel take over as interim leader.

Splitting the Dippers

We finally got a bit of clarity from Jack Layton on an issue he has danced around for the better part of the past decade:

It’s official: Layton backs 50%-plus-one rule for Quebec secession

NDP Leader Jack Layton is once again stating that a straight majority would be enough for Quebec to legally secede from Canada in the event of a third referendum on sovereignty.

“What constitutes a majority is 50 per cent plus one,” Mr. Layton said after announcing his shadow cabinet on Thursday. “That’s been crystal clear for five years as the official policy of our party.”

Despite Layton's statement, the NDP is still somewhat bashful about its repudiation of the Clarity Act. Just watch this interview where Evan Solomon asks MP Peggy Nash about her party's position on the Clarity Act four times, only to have her dodge the question four times.

I just don't see how the NDP will be able to straddle the divide on issues of federalism for four years - the last time someone tried this, it exploded in Brian Mulroney's face, destroying his party and very nearly the country.

The fact of the matter is there are NDP MPs who are unclear how they'd vote in a referendum. The party opposes the Clarity Act. They want to expand Bill 101 to the federal workplace. Layton favours a round of constitutional negotiations to create "winning conditions".

In addition to the above, it seems certain other issues will emerge over the next four years - especially with the PQ poised to take power.

The NDP has taken great joy in dividing the Liberal Party at every opportunity during the minority years. Now, the Liberals have a golden opportunity to return the favour if they can bring what's left of their Quebec caucus onside. It won't be hard to toss federalism grenades into the NDP tent - a few mischievious opposition day motions should do the trick.

By returning to its strong federalist roots, the Liberal Party could in one fell swoop put the squeeze on the Dippers, score points outside Quebec, and become relevant in the West. And if you assume that more than 14% of Quebecers are strong federalists, there'd be little electoral backlash in La Belle Province.

It's abundantly clear the NDP's Beau Risque is going to give them headaches. The Liberals should position themselves so that they're the ones who benefit.

One-on-One

Peter Mansbridge talks coalitions with Michael Ignatieff in studio, talks coalitions with Jack Layton on the campaign trail, and talks coalitions with Stephen Harper in an empty hockey rink.

All three do a good job getting their message out, but Layton clearly made the best choice in terms of format. Viewers get to see the energy of the campaign trail, and his interview comes across as a quasi NDP infomercial at times.

Tour Gratuit

On Sunday, I lamented that this election campaign was still lacking a defining storyline. Given the polls today, it's safe to say we finally have it.

The NDP surge is one of those surprises that maybe shouldn't be too surprising. After all, there have been thousands of attack ads aired against Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper over the past year, and apart from a few cameo appearances in coalition commercials, no one has dared lay a finger on Layton. He's been able to get his message out unopposed - with Jack being more popular and a better politician than either Harper or Ignatieff, it shouldn't be surprising that voters have responded to it.

On top of this, the NDP are big enough to be taken seriously, but not a big enough threat for power to be taken too seriously. Yeah, their platform is full of holes, but they'll never be in a position to implement it, so all that really matters to voters is that Jack wants to give more money to seniors, hire more doctors, and cut the cost of home heating fuels. Let the Prime Minister worry about how to pay for it.

Given the sudden reality that the NDP are serious players in this election, it's only fair to start taking them seriously. There's now a real possibility the NDP will come out of this election with 60-80 seats, with close to half of them coming from Quebec. So what kind of "table de cuisine" issues will these NDP MPs be fighting for?

Well, for starters:

1. In the debates, Layton promised to open the constitution to create "winning conditions" for federalism in Quebec. It's unclear what this means...so maybe it's time someone asked him, eh?

2. We've had several stories about quasi-separatist NDP candidates in Quebec, and there has been some switching back-on-forth between the two camps. If the NDP start electing place holder candidates across Quebec, we can likely expect that a few of them might hold extreme views. Now might be the time to take a serious look at just what kind of NDP team Jack will be bringing to Ottawa - maybe Mario Dumont can offer advice on how this might turn out.

3. Jack Layton was against the Clarity Act in 2004 and for it in 2006. It would be good to know where his Quebec team stands on the issue today.

4. Jack Layton supports extending Bill 101 to federal jurisdictions.

5. The NDP have cozied up to fringe separatist groups in Quebec.

Now, some of this isn't any worse than what the other parties have done. After all, it wasn't all that long ago that the co-founder of the BQ was Paul Martin's Quebec lieutenant. And, despite some of the jabs above, I actually do think it's a good thing for Canada if the NDP can finally squash the temporary ad hoc rainbow coalition known as the Bloc Quebecois.

But it's only fair that voters in Quebec, and in the rest of Canada, know where the party stands before casting their vote for them. A little clarity from Jack would be appreciated.

Ad Watch: Going After the Tim Hortons Crowd

Actually, that should read "Tim Hortons Crowding":

Personally, I don't really like the ad, but it strikes me as one that could work.

The ad is on an issue voters care about. It's got Jack sounding confident in front of a big flag. Plus, attack ads done in a "cartoon style" like this seem less mean than grainy black and white photos - that's why the Dippers used a "chalk attack" in 2008.

It's not fancy. It certainly won't win any awards. But it gets the message across, which is what it's supposed to do.

How would you grade this ad?
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See Results

PC Glee

From the Alberta PC convention this weekend, a musical talent show that's just beging for someone to edit in some Simon Cowell quips. It's absolutely horrifying, but it's still worth at least skipping ahead to the 10:30 mark to see Ted Morton and Dave Hancock's duet of Kumbaya.



After watching that, I'm all the more impressed with the following:

End of Summer News Bits

1. Bloc MP Carole Lavallée is upset with Stephen Harper:

La députée bloquiste Carole Lavallée juge inacceptable que le premier ministre Stephen Harper ait écrit aux élèves du pays afin de les encourager à visiter les parcs nationaux.

Dans cette lettre expédiée en mai aux élèves de deuxième secondaire au Québec et de huitième année dans le reste du pays, M.Harper rappelle que le gouvernement fédéral offre un laissez-passer valide pour 12 mois permettant de visiter gratuitement les parcs nationaux et les lieux historiques gérés par Parcs Canada.

«Allez explorer nos montagnes, nos forêts, nos champs de bataille, nos forts, nos campings et plus encore», écrit M.Harper.

«En tant que Canadiens, nous avons la chance de vivre dans un pays qui a une riche histoire et une véritable beauté naturelle. Ce laissez-passer vous permet d'en apprendre plus sur l'histoire et la nature que partagent tous les Canadiens. En tant que futurs leaders, vous tenez le Canada entre vos mains. Le meilleur moyen de vous préparer à diriger est d'en savoir le plus possible sur ce grand pays qui est le nôtre. Profitez-en bien?!»

Of all the grievances I have with Stephen Harper, I must confess that encouraging High School students to visit National Parks is fairly low on my list...


2. Jack Layton's decision to hold a free vote on Bill C-391 likely means the death of the long gun registry. Again, there are probably worse things to complain about than a leader letting his MPs vote their conscience, but Layton and his urban MPs will wear this one.

As they should.

Layton has taken delight in mocking the "Liberal-Conservative coalition" and exploiting divisions in the Liberal caucus at every opportunity. On social issues, on foreign policy - how many times have we seen an NDP bill designed to split the Liberal caucus down the middle?

Each time, Layton called it a lack of leadership on the part of the Liberal leader. So if Jack is going to let a program he supports die, a program which was just called "cost effective and efficient" in an RCMP report - well, he deserves to shoulder the blame.


3. We likely won't have a fall election, but a 4 riding mini-election could give the political junkies out there their fix.

On Target

Via Aaron Wherry, Iggy's gun registry proposals:

First, we’d change the law, so that people who forget to register their gun can be issued a ticket, rather than face a criminal charge. This will give front line officers the tools you need to distinguish an honest mistake from a threat to public safety. Someone who habitually breaks the law and flouts the regulations should be treated far differently from someone who makes a one-time mistake. One kind of behavior is criminal, the other isn’t. And you need the appropriate tools to deal with each situation. That’s a message we heard loud and clear.

Second, we’ll permanently eliminate fees for new licenses, renewals, and upgrades.

And third, we’ll streamline paperwork, to make registration as quick and easy as possible.

Seems like a reasonable compromise to me. And it must also seem like a reasonable compromise to the 8 Liberal MPs who voted for Candice Hoeppner’s private members bill to abolish the gun registry - Ignatieff said MPs who vote for her bill on third reading will be punished and, after the abortion fiasco, I assume he's made sure his ducks are lined up first for this one. (Right?)

So what all of this means is that the fate of the gun registry now rests in the hands of a dozen NDP MPs who voted to scrap the registry last fall. Fairly or unfairly, Layton knows he'll get the blame for killing the registry if he doesn't whip the vote on this one. My guess is that's not what Jack wants, and enough NDP holdouts will have a change of heart, helping to shoot down Hoeppner's bill.

On the bright side, Ignatieff was picked as "the leader you'd most like to attend an Isaiah Berlin leture with"

Angus Reid has a fun poll out, where they ask "the beer question", amongst others. In it, we learn that the mustached socialist is the "jock" of Canadian politics - he's the one voters would like to have a beer with, or have on their sports team. Harper wins most of the "prime ministerial" questions - negotiating with other countries and representing Canada. Ignatieff, well, he's the one voters would go to for a book recommendation, and they'd love to have him on their trivia team.

The question that really caught my eye was this one - "who would you prefer being Prime Minister in the event of another Quebec referendum?". And, wouldn't you know it? The firewall guy from Calgary wins hands down - 29% to 17% (for Ignatieff) to 10% (for Layton). It shows the kind of progress Harper has made in the eyes of voters over the past few years.


ALSO...

The other poll released this weekend (but fielded a month ago), shows McGuinty up 38% to 34% on Tim Hudak in Ontario. Nothing too surprising there - it's well in line with what the Ontario polls have been saying over the past 5 or 6 months.



UPDATE: Angus vote numbers are out, and it's 36-29...about the normal over the past few years...

Abstinence Only Voting

"Nothing makes people more cynical about politics than when parties don't do what they say, don't stand up for what they believe."
-Jack Layton, 2007



TODAY:

The House of Commons voted 144-117 today against a Liberal motion to bring down the minority Conservatives.

The Liberals and Bloc Quebecois supported the motion while the Tories opposed it and the NDP abstained.

Jack Layton: Making Parliament Work Since One Week Ago

A new NDP ad is out (which I assume won't actually air), where Jack chides the other parties...for doing what he proudly did for the past three years.

Political Games

Sent out by the NDP on Tuesday. I'm sure President Obama will be eternally grateful for Jack's "help"...

Dear Friend,

Today, Jack Layton flies to Washington D.C. to help President Obama in his fight for universal health care. And to fight to protect our cherished Medicare back here in Canada.

It’s an important few days, and I want you to share every step.

I’m inviting you to follow along on twitter as Jack delivers his speech on our fight for Medicare at the Woodrow Wilson Center. And as we meet with key Obama Democrats - like White House Director of Communications Anita Dunn.

Click here to follow Jack Layton on twitter.

And I’m also down in Washington to meet with key senior Democrats about how they waged a winning campaign for change that put everyday people first, ahead of the big corporate interests – just like we want to do in Canada.

You can follow me on twitter by clicking here.

While the other parties are staring each other down, playing political games, this is what your New Democrats are up to. Fighting day in and day out to get real results for real people [ed note: in the United States...] . Thanks for being a part of it.

Brad Lavigne
National Director

Jack Attack

A jilted Jack has lashed out against his old coalition partners with a pair of new radio ads. There’s nothing overly novel about them – it’s basically a rehash of the same tactic he ran against Dion last campaign.

But, really, it’s still just the NDP. It’s like worrying about a leaky faucet, when there’s a hurricane warning. The main show will be the Conservative attack ads, which have yet to materialize. So when?

I heard from a Tory that their original game plan had been for a blanket ad buy right after the announcement of the winner at the LPC leadership convention, to run their ads then. Now that the Liberals have cleverly diffused that option, the guessing game is on as to when the assault begins. The Tories probably had to hold off until after the budget to do anything, but you can bet that hasn’t stopped them from scripting and focus group testing a few ads by now.

So any guesses as to the launch date? I’ll pick February 10th in the pool.

Oh, and as a fun trivia tid-bit, today marks the 2 year anniversary of the infamous “they didn’t get it done” ads.

Election '08

Results
Elections Canada
Wikipedia
SFU
Nodice
Fringe Parties


Ad Watch
The Winners
Bad Actors Love Harper (CPC)
See the Softer Side of Jack (NDP)
Jack Attack (NDP)
Green Shift (Liberal)
Viva Loss Vegas (CPC)
Harpernomics (Liberal)
Jack Attaque (NDP)
Pot Pourri
Bushwacked (Liberal)
Runaway Train (Greens)
Doodling Dippers (NDP)
Subtle Micro-Targeting (CPC)


Projections and Predictions
Throughout the campaign, I used public polling data to project seat totals. The first set of projections, explaining the methodology, can be found here, with my final projections here. Other updates can be found here, here, and here. So how did I do? It was a missed bag. The NDP and Bloc projections were spot on but the final Liberal and Conservative totals were outside the margin of error. Still, when compared to the other projections and predictions being made, the model held up respectably:

1. Calgary Grit predictions (total miss: 16 seats)
2. Ekos predictions (total miss: 18 seats)
3. Calgary Grit simulation model (total miss: 23.6 seats)
4. Barry Kay projections (total miss: 24 seats)
5. Andrew Coyne predictions (total miss: 26 seats)
6. UBC Stock market (total miss: 30 seats)
6. David Aiken predictions (total miss: 30 seats)
8. Democratic Space (total miss: 36 seats)
8. Kady O'Malley predictions (total miss: 36 seats)
10. Election Prediction Project (total miss: 38 seats)


Week in Review
Week 1 in Review
Week 2 in Review
Week 3 in Review
Week 4 in Review
Week 5 in Review


Posts
Debate Drinking Game
French Debate Live Blog
English Debate Live Blog
Better Know a Riding - Papineau
Election Day