The Perils of Strategic Voting
Without a doubt, the reason for the major shocker on the election night were the NDP voters going Liberal in the last minute out of fear of the big, bad politician from Alberta. The NDP fell from 20% to 15% and the Liberals increased by a similar amount. But was this a smart move? Did they save the government from Harper?
To test this, I took 5% of each riding's vote and shifted it from the Liberals to the NDP. I ignored Quebec and simply gave 1 Liberal seat to the Bloc. Now, since voter shift didn't happen in Quebec and the "key" ridings voted strategically more than, say, Red Deer Alberta, this is likely minimizing the impact of the strategic voting. But it gives you an idea of what the effect was.
So, as a result of this shift, the following changes occured on election night:
8 NDP ridings went Liberal
5 NDP ridings went Conservative (mostly in BC)
7 Conservative ridings went Liberal
With our 1 Quebec seat, this gives us election night results of:
Lib 119
Con 101
NDP 32
Bloc 55
Cadman 1
Wow! Good thing those NDP voters jumped ship, eh? All the strategic voting did was cost the Tories 2 seats, at a price of 13 NDP seats. Once again, the two coalitions have similar numbers but the NDP lost well over a third of their seats due to strategic voting. Prominent victims include Lorne Nystrom and Olivia Chow.
I think the NDP should comision someone who knows what they're doing (unlike myself) to do a study and find out just what the strategic voting likely cost them. Since we're in for an election in another year, they need to stress the point that it doesn't work before the next election.
Without a doubt, the reason for the major shocker on the election night were the NDP voters going Liberal in the last minute out of fear of the big, bad politician from Alberta. The NDP fell from 20% to 15% and the Liberals increased by a similar amount. But was this a smart move? Did they save the government from Harper?
To test this, I took 5% of each riding's vote and shifted it from the Liberals to the NDP. I ignored Quebec and simply gave 1 Liberal seat to the Bloc. Now, since voter shift didn't happen in Quebec and the "key" ridings voted strategically more than, say, Red Deer Alberta, this is likely minimizing the impact of the strategic voting. But it gives you an idea of what the effect was.
So, as a result of this shift, the following changes occured on election night:
8 NDP ridings went Liberal
5 NDP ridings went Conservative (mostly in BC)
7 Conservative ridings went Liberal
With our 1 Quebec seat, this gives us election night results of:
Lib 119
Con 101
NDP 32
Bloc 55
Cadman 1
Wow! Good thing those NDP voters jumped ship, eh? All the strategic voting did was cost the Tories 2 seats, at a price of 13 NDP seats. Once again, the two coalitions have similar numbers but the NDP lost well over a third of their seats due to strategic voting. Prominent victims include Lorne Nystrom and Olivia Chow.
I think the NDP should comision someone who knows what they're doing (unlike myself) to do a study and find out just what the strategic voting likely cost them. Since we're in for an election in another year, they need to stress the point that it doesn't work before the next election.
posted by calgarygrit at
9:05 p.m.
12 Comments:
Nice numbers - thanks for doing that.
I really don't believe in strategic voting at all - selling out your gut instinct on who to vote for based on not wanting another party to win seems like a bad idea to me in all circumstances.
By
Andrew, at 7:44 a.m.
I think you mean "7 Liberal ridings went Conservative" not "7 Liberal ridings went NDP".
The NDP needs to take this problem head-on in the next election. Maybe ads with the tagline, "Vote Strategically, Vote NDP".
-Andrew Spicer
By
Andrew Spicer, at 12:16 p.m.
Trying to analyze strategic voting is tough, such broad based assumptions of 5% moving accross the board seems a bit much. I'd wager that in some ridings it moved up to 10% to try and defeat the Tories in other ridings probably very little.
As I'm sure you know In Alberta if the NDP voters wanted to defeat the cons they'd have to abandon the ndp entirely, and even still the liberals would have had a very tough time winning seats.
By
Bemused, at 1:54 p.m.
Obviously there was more strategic voting in some ridings rather than others. For example, in Calgary, it didn't really matter how you voted since you knew the outcome. I think that's why the Greens did so well in Alberta. And if you're in Anne McLellan's riding, then it obviously makes sense to switch NDP to Liberal (if you like Anne) since that's the way the 2 way race was going.
But the NDP definitely needs to get the point across of just how dangerous strategic voting is.
By
calgarygrit, at 10:20 p.m.
Thanks for nice and information article!
By
Data recovery software, at 2:08 a.m.
I give good love
I’ll buy your clothes
I’ll cook your dinner too
Soon as I get home from work
sex on camvegas swingers
By
Anonymous, at 12:04 p.m.
Republican primaries
Late in 1911, Roosevelt finally broke with Taft and LaFollette and announced himself as a candidate for the Republican nomination. Roosevelt, however, had delayed too long, and Taft had already won the support of most party leaders in the country. Because of LaFollette's nervous breakdown on the campaign trail before Roosevelt's entry, most of LaFollette's supporters went over to Roosevelt, the new progressive Republican candidate.
Roosevelt, stepping up his attack on judges, carried nine of the states that held preferential primaries, LaFollette took two, and Taft only one. The 1912 primaries represented the first extensive use of the presidential primary, a reform achievement of the progressive movement. However, these primary elections, while demonstrating Roosevelt's continuing popularity with the electorate, were not nearly as pivotal as primaries became later in the century. There were fewer states where a common voter had an opportunity to express a recorded preference. Many more states selected convention delegates at state party conventions, or in caucuses, which were not as open as they later became. While Roosevelt was popular with the public, most Republican politicians and party leaders supported Taft, and their support proved difficult to counter in states without primaries.
Vegas Escortssalvia divinorum
By
tung, at 9:57 a.m.
The tools that an editor would most likely request are also the ones that the community considers the most sensitive and that drive the most concern at RFA. My understanding is that the ability to Block and to Delete are considered the most dangerous abilities to hand out, followed in a distant third by Protection. Yet I think 90% of requests for tool access will end up involving at least deletion, in the case of NPP, vandal patrolling and those active at deletion venues, and in the case of vandal patrolling, they will have a strong need for block, and may also request protection for semi-protect. Now it is true that we can just apply stricter scrutiny when those tools are requested, but as we do so, we turn it right back into the mess RFA is in now.
vegas stripperscheap sexy lingerie
By
tung, at 11:14 a.m.
Murasaki Shikibu (c. 973 – c. 1014 or 1025) was a Japanese novelist, poet and lady-in-waiting at the Imperial court during the Heian period. She is best known as the author of The Tale of Genji, written in Japanese between about 1000 and 1012. In about 1005, Murasaki was invited to serve as a lady-in-waiting to Empress Shōshi at the Imperial court, probably because of her reputation as a writer. She continued to write during her service, adding scenes from court life to her work.
toys shophusven søges
By
tung, at 11:23 p.m.
Martha Layne Collins (born 1936) is a businesswoman and politician from Kentucky who was the state's 56th governor from 1983 to 1987. Prior to her election as governor, she was the 48th Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky, serving under John Y. Brown, Jr. She is the only woman to have been governor of Kentucky, and her election made her the highest-ranking Democratic woman in the U.S. at the time. She was considered as a possible running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale in the 1984 presidential election, but Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro instead.
Anal Kugler & ægEscorts Directory
By
tung, at 5:24 a.m.
tiffany outlet
chanel handbags outlet
nike air max uk
fred perry polo shirts
fitflops uk
true religion jeans
swarovski jewelry
mulberry outlet
ralph lauren uk
tommy hilfiger
nfl jerseys
oakley sunglasses uk
ray-ban sunglasses
ray ban,rayban,occhiali ray ban,ray-ban,ray ban occhiali,ray ban sunglasses
michael kors uk outlet
thomas sabo outlet
puma outlet
omega outlet
nobis jacket
michael kors outlet
mm1231
By
mmjiaxin, at 8:34 p.m.
Sex positions are often the go-to tip for spicing up your sex life with a partner. But when it comes to our solo sex lives, that is, masturbation, finding the right sex position isn't usually something you think about.
Maybe this is because we think about masturbation for its functional benefits and not an expression of love or lust or creativity. This is too bad because sometimes masturbation might be about a quickie with yourself, but it also can be an opportunity for self-care and self-love.
What position you are in may not be the first thing you think about when masturbating, but the ways we hold our bodies when we masturbate matter. For example, many of us keep very stiff when we masturbate, and only relax once we have climaxed. This impacts how the sex we're having with ourselves feels.
There are countless of variations, but here are some basic ideas to spark your imagination.
penisring
blog
By
Anonymous, at 5:22 a.m.
Post a Comment
<< Home