The ever shrinking Liberal shadow

There's only so much you can read into the critic portfolios assigned to the third party in the house - especially when numbers dictate that everyone gets something. But the Liberal shadow cabinet deserves a bit of attention, if only because it marks Bob Rae's first significant public decision as interim leader.

Among the notables:

-Ralph Goodale is an obvious and deserving choice as Deputy Leader, given his experience and the need to grow the party west of Mississauga.

-In Rae's most notable and encouraging move, Stephane Dion winds up with intergovernmental affairs and democratic reform. True, these are not high profile posts in the Harper government (quick quiz: name the intergovernmental affairs minister), but between the NDP's murky position on the Clarity Act and the number of Premiers jumping into the Senate reform frenzy, this is an important role, and one Dion is perfectly suited for.

-On the leadership front, Dominic LeBlanc takes over from Rae as Foreign Affairs critic, while Justin Trudeau settles for sport, youth, and post-secondary education. Score one for Dom.

-Scott Brison is back in Finance, a critic role he is familiar with and performs well at.

-Hedy Fry and Geoff Regan get big promotions to Health Care and Industry.

In the interim

The Liberal Party will name an interim leader this Wednesday. While it may not be the most important decision to make over the next four years, it still deserves careful consideration. All indications are the permanent leader won't be chosen for at least another year - and maybe two - so the interim leader will be the face of the Liberal Party as it regroups and rebuilds, all the while trying to remain relevant.

Sadly, we find ourselves with only 34 candidates for the job, so it's actually fairly simple to write a short list.

For starters, no party's interim leader should ever be running to be permanent leader, except in extraordinary circumstances, such as war, disaster, or the national executive wanting Michael Ignatieff in charge. The reasons for this should be self evident, and Rob Silver spells them out here. I'd also add that any hint the "party elites" giving an unfair advantage to a chosen candidate would not exactly be in the spirit of engaging and unifying the membership.

So that likely means LeBlanc and Trudeau will take a pass, while they consider their options.

It's been argued the interim leader should be bilingual. Now, there are degrees of bilingualism, but I generally agree with this sentiment. Ralph Goodale would likely be the best candidate if not for ce petit problème. Similarly, picking Wayne Easter would have been a nice thank you to PEI, which now makes up 9% of the Liberal caucus, but he's a one language man himself.

Even with just those two small criteria, the field narrows considerably. Such are the problems of losing over half your MPs. From what I gather, the top contenders for the job are:

Stephane Dion: He's not being seriously considered, but I include his name here since someone will surely mention him in the comments section. Going to Dion would be somewhat fitting, but we all know the caucus, party, and country would never go for it. At the very least, we need to make the Tories produce some new attack ads.

Scott Brison: Brison is young, charismatic, and knows how to deliver a sound byte. Of course, for those very reasons, he may still be mulling over a run for the top job.

Marc Garneau: He may not be as seasoned politically as the other candidates, but he has name recognition. On the downside, if you think spending time outside the country is bad, just imagine what the Tories will have to say about Garneau spending time outside the planet.

David McGuinty: Would be a strong candidate, but his last name certainly complicates things with an Ontario provincial election on deck.

John McCallum: Somewhat more experienced for the job than the others, by virtue of having been named interim Liberal leader in 2008 by CTV.

Frank McKenna: Yes, I know he doesn't have a seat. But still, wouldn't he be a great selection!

The above would all make fine leaders, and lesser known MPs like Geoff Regan, Kirsty Duncan, or Joyce Murray also deserve consideration. And hey, there's always Jimmy K, though it would mean an end to his leadership aspirations.

But, above all these names, the one that stands out is Bob Rae. Rae is experienced, respected, bilingual, and well spoken. He would keep the Liberals in the headlines and would keep them relevant. It's hard to imagine a better candidate for the job.

Of course, for those reasons, Rae might very well decide to run for the top job. However, he'll be 66 by the time the next election rolls around, and my read of the landscape is that the Liberal membership is looking towards the next generation and a long-term rebuilt. I'm certainly in no position to tell Bob Rae he can't run for leader, and he would make a fine candidate. But a year or two as the interim leader would be an exciting challenge for a man who has accomplished so much over his career.

So it seems very much like a win-win. The caveat I'd place on it is that Rae must recognize this is a caretaker position. So that means no talk of leadership and no talk of merger.

But if he's willing to play ball under those conditions, I can't think of a better candidate for the job.

Moment of the Decade: #2 The Coalition

If you missed it, I asked readers to nominate, then vote, on Canada's top political moment of the decade. Over the first two weeks of January, I'm counting down the top 10 vote getters. Tomorrow, I reveal the complete voting results and the number one moment of the decade.




If nothing else, it made Canadians pay attention to politics.

Over the past year, people had complained about how dull our politics were – the Americans had just gone through a thrilling election whereas you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who could tell you anything memorable about our election that had happened around the same time. There’d been something about sweater vests and puffins, but nothing had really happened, and nothing had really changed.

Then, for a fortnight in December, everyone paid attention. And I mean everyone. That Christmas, friends and family who couldn’t name their local MP didn’t want to talk to me about anything except the coalition. And they all had an opinion. Someone had committed an affront to democracy – just who had committed what affront depended on who you asked. Those dastardly Liberals were going to use the separatists to steal an election! That bully Stephen Harper was using an economic crisis to play petty politics!

In one of my favourite political memories, I bundled up on a cold Toronto Saturday and visited a pair of competing rallies, both accusing opposites side of subverting democracy. At one rally, the coalition was described as “the saddest moment in the history of Canada” and a “coup”. At the other, Jack Layton talked about how Stephen Harper had “taken away your right to vote”.




Looking back, it’s actually easy to see how it all happened. The Liberals were weak and Harper went for the jugular. The opposition fought back with the only weapon they had. So Harper backed down. But this was the only chance Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton would ever have at power so they kept punching. So Harper used the only weapon he had and prorogued. Then Michael Ignatieff saw an opportunity to skip the unpleasantness of a leadership race and he took it.

It was wild, it was exciting, but even with emotions higher than they’d ever been, it really wasn’t anything more than a bunch of politicians behaving completely rationally, like basic game theory would expect them to. One by one, they saw an opportunity for power and they took it. Even though we faulted them at the time, can you really blame politicians for doing what politicians do?

Moment of the Decade: #8 The Clarity Act

If you missed it, I asked readers to nominate, then vote, on Canada's top political moment of the decade. Over the next two weeks, I'll be counting down the top 10 vote getters.



When I first announced this contest, one of the e-mails I got argued against the inclusion of the Clarity Act on the list. The argument was that the Clarity Act was the conclusion to the national unity crisis that dominated the 90s, and really had little to do with the aughts.

But I think it’s a worthy finalist.

The Clarity Act, along with Jean Charest’s 2003 victory (which would have been my only addition to the Top 10 had I just done this list up myself) took the national unity card off table for much of the decade. Ha ha. OK, it didn’t take the card out of play because, this is Canada, a country where Paul McCartny concerts and the roster of Team Canada become national unity debates. But it did help shift the nature of the debate away from separation – even in the hay day of Adscam, no one really saw separation as a real possibility.

I’d like to think it also showed a tough-love approach vis-à-vis Quebec could work, but the 2004 Health Care Accord, 2006 Tory election platform, and the Nation debate make me question this. Still, these changes didn’t come about because there was a knife at Ottawa’s throat and, in the long run, that's a healthier environment to be having the debate about federalism in.

Still, as far as how it affected the decade, the direct cause-and-effect relationship is a little, shall we say, unclear. So how about this for a more direct link: Stephane Dion’s 2006 leadership win and, par consequence, the coalition crisis, would not have happened if not for the Clarity Act. Because, if not for the Clarity Act, no one would have ever taken Stephane Dion seriously in the 2006 Liberal leadership race. Yeah, I know everyone thought it was cute that his dog was named Kyoto, and that might have still gotten him past Dryden, but sans clarity, he simply doesn’t win.

So maybe Stephen Harper still rides out the decade as Prime Minister and the only thing that changes is that the tag line in the attack ads goes from “Not a Leader” to “Bob Rae: Can we afford him again?”. But I do think the last half of this decade would have looked a lot different without Dion, who for better or worse, left his mark.

The Clarity Act, more so than the other two policies that cracked the top ten (Iraq and SSM), will probably go down as Jean Chretien’s greatest legacy. And, yes, by now, the Conservative commentators are already thinking of just how they will tell me to go shove it in the comments section because, as we all know, Stephen Harper was the real father of the Clarity Act. But, regardless of whose idea it was, it's hard to deny the Act was one of the most important pieces of legislation we've seen over the past 20 years.

Maybe the Clarity Act had little to do with the 00s – maybe it was the conclusion to the national unity crisis that defined Canada throughout the 70s, 80s, and 90s. But if it actually was the conclusion of our long national unity nightmare, well, I’d say that certainly means it’s an event worthy of inclusion in the history books and worthy of inclusion in this list.

Political Moment of the Decade: #9 Dion Stuns the Favourites

If you missed it, I asked readers to nominate, then vote, on Canada's top political moment of the decade. Over the next two weeks, I'll be counting down the top 10 vote getters.



It’s overall impact on the decade is debatable. In retrospect, it seems likely that Stephen Harper would have destroyed whomever crawled out of the octagon alive in Montreal. But for everyone involved, that leadership race was one of the most thrilling events of the decade.

You see, up until that point, the Liberal Party had held 7 leadership votes in its history. And, while Sheila did manage to scrounge up a few dozen votes in 2003 (yours truly included), in reality, it had been 16 years since a real leadership race.

And when the heavyweights started dropping…well…that changed everything. Suddenly you had candidates no one had ever heard of. These weren’t political machines that had been organized for years. It was every politico’s fantasy come true – pluck a candidate from obscurity and turn them into the next Prime Minister.

For me, I was intrigued early on by Gerard Kennedy. I liked that he had western roots. I liked his involvement with food banks. I liked what I’d heard about him. Not knowing much else, I found an e-mail address on the Internet and sent off an incredibly lame note along the lines of “so…you gonna run?”. Eventually myself and some friends from Alberta got in touch with his people and helped build up a pretty impressive team. Talking people onside, being with a candidate from the start…it’s exciting stuff, and I think a lot of Liberals had the same experience.

So, because of that, it was hard for Liberals not to get a little offended when someone suggested that maybe your guy didn’t have the greatest French or English, or maybe a candidate should have more than 6 weeks of political experience, or have been a Liberal Party member before declaring his intent to run. We all looked past this, because it was such an intriguing field. An NDP Premier, one of the smartest men alive, the Clarity Act guy, the founder of Canada’s first food bank, a Hall of Fame goalie…this wasn’t just the 3 highest profile Cabinet Ministers of the last decade slugging it out – this race had something for everyone. Hell, this being the 21st Century and all, there was even a woman!

And it was all kinds of fun. Every week there was a new deadline, a new Joe Volpe scandal, a new Michael Ignatieff gaffe, and a new rumour that Frank McKenna was on the verge of entering the race. You never really knew who was going to win. The media was in love with Iggy…then it was Bob Rae’s race to lose…then the At Issue Pannel had a love-in with Stephane Dion…then Kennedy looked good in membership numbers…then a poll showed Dryden to be the most electable.

By the time you got to Montreal, it was anybody’s guess. Ignatieff was the front runner, but expectations had been spun so high that I’m not sure it was even mathematically possible for him to get the votes on the first ballot he was expected to. Every candidate who had dropped out had endorsed Bob Rae, but then it was common knowledge that the Tories wanted Rae to win…unless that was a clever reverse psychology trick of theirs. Gerard Kennedy had Justin Trudeau and was against the Quebec Nation resolution but the guy only had a dozen Quebec delegates. Stephane Dion had run out of time during his Friday speech but, really, I’m sure the ability to deliver a speech on time would never prove important for the next Liberal leader, right?

So everyone had a theory. I was feeling fairly good at the start of the week when talk of a Dion-Kennedy suicide pact kept making the rounds. I was feeling really good when I was told in confidence that Ken Dryden was going to announce his support for Gerard during his speech Friday. I was feeling less good when the National reporting Dryden was set to endorse Ignatieff. I was on the floor and had no clue what the hell was going on when he eventually endorsed Rae. It was wild.

Back at home, the country tuned in. They saw the tightly scripted spontaneous demonstrations, the signs, the tambourines, the scarves.

It was exciting. An underdog won and everyone loves the underdog.

Until they realize the underdog talks funny and is a bit of dweeb.

Maybe CTV Would Like To Start Over Too...

The airing of Stephane Dion's false starts from an interview with CTV anchor Steve Murphy last October violated broadcasting codes and ethics, the Canadian Broadcast Standards Council has ruled.The CBSC released its decision Wednesday.

The Liberal leader did the interview with CTV Atlantic's news anchor during the federal election campaign.

Mr. Murphy’s first question to Stéphane Dion was: “If you were prime minister now, what would you have done about the economy and this crisis that Mr. Harper has not done?”

2008 Man of the Year

2004: Ralph Klein
2005: Belinda Stronach
2006: Michael Ignatieff
2007: Jean Charest

It’s time to crown the Calgary Grit “Person of the Year”. As the above list of past winners shows, this award doesn’t necessarily go to my favourite politician, or to the politician who had the best year. Rather, it goes to someone whose influence was felt on the Canadian political landscape – with that said, I try to stay away from the PM whenever possible, since that’s always an easy cop-out.

So who wins in 2008? Well, let’s look at the runner-ups first. Maxime Bernier and Julie Couillard injected some life into the droll world of Canadian politics, but had little long-term impact. At the provincial level, Jean Charest and Ed Stelmach were re-elected in a pair of rather uneventful elections. Few Premiers made bold political moves, outside of Gordon Campbell’s carbon tax – but its rejection in the federal election limits his influence to the West Coast. And, once again, few in the Harper Cabinet distinguished themselves, although Jim Flaherty’s fiscal update certainly makes him a candidate. Guy Giorno is also a tempting choice, but it’s difficult to say what percentage of PMO decisions were his, and what percentage were Harper’s.

I toyed with the idea of thinking outside the box and picking Barack Obama. After all, Canadians paid far more attention to the US election than to our own. And the don’t-call-it-NAFTAgate scandal did bring it home, to a certain extent. However, I see little evidence of an “Obama effect” on our election so while his election was historic and may change Canada significantly over the next 4 or 8 years, it didn't change Canada significantly this year.

No, in the end, the three most significant political events of the year were likely: the Green Shift, the federal election, and the coalition confidence crisis. And one man was at the center of each of them.

The fall of Stephane Dion in 2008 wasn’t unexpected. It wasn’t unique. But, it was the story of the year.

His bold policy, the Green Shift, was a great metaphor for Dion himself. Canadians said they wanted action on the environment, just like they said they wanted thoughtful and honest politicians. The Green Shift was a good policy in theory and, if given the chance, would have accomplished a lot. But, it could not be messaged or sold properly, and was soundly rejected by voters - as was Dion.

That rejection came during the 2008 federal election, when Harper became only the 5th Conservative Prime Minister ever to earn re-election. However, the election was never about Harper. From the very first attack ad in 2007, it was clear the election would be about Dion. So, despite a strong showing in the French debates and some spirited attacks against Harpernomics, voters chose Harper over Dion.

Or so they thought.

This brings us to what was, hands down, the defining moment of 2008 – the fortnight of insanity that began November 26th. Every hour, the political world moved a little. An election was on, an election was off. A coalition was rumoured. The vote was Monday, no it was next Monday. Dion would be PM, no it would be Ignatieff, no it would be Dion, no it would be Harper. For political junkies, this was better than an election.

The impact of those two weeks will be far reaching – from the Liberal leadership (non) race, to how Ignatieff will define himself as a leader, to the timing of the next election, to the constitutional precedents that were set. Sure, Dion was no more a player in the coalition saga than any of the other leaders, but his lame-duck leader status no doubt hurt the opposition insurgents. It also turned political insanity into Liberal insanity, leading to the crowning of a new Liberal leader 5 months ahead of schedule. Just as Dion's win in 2006 was due to a rejection of Ignatieff, Ignatieff's win - nearly three years to the day later - was due to a rejection of Dion.

So while 2008 was not the best of years for Stéphane Dion, his influence was felt throughout it.

Dion Steps Down

We can all agree, I think, that the Liberals - from the leader on down - were not ready for this campaign, and were not ready to govern. But few races in this country have more underscored the extremely cruel nature of electoral politics. It's an elbows-out game for all concerned, and parties have to know that when they choose their leaders. Frankly, Dion should have known that before he sought the leadership in the first place. But if Steve Paikin ever writes a sequel to The Dark Side he may not need to look for a single other person to write about.
-Radwanski


The question immediately, in anonymous quotes and Conservative attacks, was one of leadership. Before he could even begin to go about trying to lead, he was defined as weak and cowardly, pursued by numerous rivals who, while they hadn’t been able to beat him in a year-long campaign, were apparently better, stronger, more deserving captains. For months he was mocked without riposte. Maybe a more archetypal politician might’ve been able to transcend this, might’ve reassured those who doubted his abilities. But, in Dion’s case, all that made him who he was only seemed to confirm what his opponents purported him to be. All that he supposedly stood in opposition to, he now needed to personify. And so maybe the question is how we now define leadership. Or how we know a leader when we think we see one.
-Wherry


There’s always a lot of second-guessing in a campaign like this but the campaign – and Dion’s leadership – were probably over 18 months ago. As Wherry laments above, within months of surprising everyone and winning the leadership, Tory ads had defined him as weak, the media had bought into that narrative, and the knives were being sharpened. I shudder to think of what would happen today to a wooden and uninspiring civil servant named “Lester” who talked with a lisp, wore bow ties, and lost his first two elections. It’s pretty clear that the days of a “not a leader” like Pearson becoming Prime Minister are long gone.

It became common to refer to Dion as “an honest politician and decent human being” during the dying days of the campaign, as if these were horrible character flaws holding him back from becoming Prime Minister. At the same time, voter apathy reached all-time highs, because of cynicism towards politics and politicians. Go figure. Maybe Dion needed the “bastard side” Will Ferguson talks about. Maybe he needed to be more pragmatic. Maybe the failure was not in the product but in how it was marketed.

When all is said and done, the problem is that Dion wasn’t “an honest politician” – he was “an honest man” thrust into the job of politician, a job he just wasn’t well suited for. Brilliant academic, yes. Passionate fighter of Canadian unity, no one can deny. Talented Cabinet Minister, you betcha. But as a politician? It just wasn’t his calling.

Even if you were never a big fan of Stéphane Dion and even if you think the party will be better served under new leadership, it’s hard not to feel at least a little bit sorry for the man. The story of Paul Martin’s leadership was probably a “greek tragedy” – for Dion, it was just a sad story.

Election '08

Results
Elections Canada
Wikipedia
SFU
Nodice
Fringe Parties


Ad Watch
The Winners
Bad Actors Love Harper (CPC)
See the Softer Side of Jack (NDP)
Jack Attack (NDP)
Green Shift (Liberal)
Viva Loss Vegas (CPC)
Harpernomics (Liberal)
Jack Attaque (NDP)
Pot Pourri
Bushwacked (Liberal)
Runaway Train (Greens)
Doodling Dippers (NDP)
Subtle Micro-Targeting (CPC)


Projections and Predictions
Throughout the campaign, I used public polling data to project seat totals. The first set of projections, explaining the methodology, can be found here, with my final projections here. Other updates can be found here, here, and here. So how did I do? It was a missed bag. The NDP and Bloc projections were spot on but the final Liberal and Conservative totals were outside the margin of error. Still, when compared to the other projections and predictions being made, the model held up respectably:

1. Calgary Grit predictions (total miss: 16 seats)
2. Ekos predictions (total miss: 18 seats)
3. Calgary Grit simulation model (total miss: 23.6 seats)
4. Barry Kay projections (total miss: 24 seats)
5. Andrew Coyne predictions (total miss: 26 seats)
6. UBC Stock market (total miss: 30 seats)
6. David Aiken predictions (total miss: 30 seats)
8. Democratic Space (total miss: 36 seats)
8. Kady O'Malley predictions (total miss: 36 seats)
10. Election Prediction Project (total miss: 38 seats)


Week in Review
Week 1 in Review
Week 2 in Review
Week 3 in Review
Week 4 in Review
Week 5 in Review


Posts
Debate Drinking Game
French Debate Live Blog
English Debate Live Blog
Better Know a Riding - Papineau
Election Day

Meet Dion...

...just 20 short months after winning the Liberal leadership race.

This site is a great idea and well produced. Sure, it should have been done back in January 2007 but better later than never.

From the home office in Toronto-Danforth, the top 10 reasons...

So I trekked out to Jack’s neck of the woods last night for the Kinsella Young Liberal event. First off, full marks to the Lang Gang for another fun event, to follow up their wildly successful time raiser earlier this month. I always like underdog campaigns because you can have some fun with them and it certainly seems like that’s their strategy.

Jeff gives a great recap of the event and Warren’s zingers here, while Aaron takes issue with Warren’s “rah-rah go Liberals” attitude. Since, you know, if there’s one think Kinsella is known for, it’s his rose-coloured-Dion-is-great-and-can-do-no-wrong attitude. If only he could look at Dion more objectively, like other bloggers.

For those curious what the hubbub was all about, the presentation was a more in depth look at this top 10 list of reasons people shouldn’t count Dion out. I’d say I agree with all of the points on that list to a certain extent, although a lot of them work more to the “stop a Harper majority” than the “elect Dion” end game.

Here’s the quick 10 points without explanation (to do that, go here) – I’m curious to see what people think.

1. Dion is underestimated and female voters don’t trust Harper.

2. The LPC has great brand and organization strength. [ed note: brand, yes. Organizational? I think the Tories have us beat there]

3. Dion will turn the focus away from “leadership” by emphasizing the Liberal team.

4. The Tories can’t run an outsider or scandal-backlash campaign anymore.

5. Campaigns matter and the Liberals have a good campaign pitch.

6. “Mark my words: Jim Flaherty’s anti-Dalton McGuinty campaign will go down in the political history books as one of the dumbest, most self-destructive campaigns ever.”

7. Team McGuinty will get involved due to point 6.

8. Picking Dumont over Charest will hurt Harper in Quebec.

9. The media are out to get Harper.

10. “Stéphane Dion is a decent, hard-working guy. Canada is full of decent, hard-working guys and gals. The more they get to know him, the more they will like him. Just watch.”

Third Annual Politicians in Cowboy Hats

2006 Politicians in Cowboy Hats
2007 Politicians in Cowboy Hats

A big thanks to everyone who sent in pictures or posted them on their own blogs. Let's begin the photo round-up with the CP wire story's winner and loser:

And with good reviews from the Alberta media scarce during his time there, who can fault the LPC from pouncing on this and making it the top story on their weekly e-brief:

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion attended the Calgary Stampede last weekend, where he was named the best dressed political cowboy. Wearing boots, blue jeans, a fitted plaid shirt, topped off by a broad-brimmed cowboy hat, Mr. Dion looked like a true cowboy as he walked the grounds of the stampede, meeting with Albertans.

Dion also gets top tough guy Clint Eastwood points for walking into a wild west town, knowing that everyone was gunning for him. So I'll second the consensus and name him "best dressed" for Stampede 2008, taking the title from last year's winner, Harry Chase.

As for the green party leader? Mayday mayday! Call in the fashionistas! Since Liz has gotten a lot of flack for the above picture, I will post a slightly more flattering one of her from Sunday. May also gets Clint Eastwood points for wearing the Canada-USA pin, something no other party leader in Canada would ever be gutsy enough to do:
So what about the Village Person? Well, his psychic may have dropped the ball on giving him the Maxime Bernier heads up, but she's earning her paycheck in the fashion advisor role. Unlike the nerdy Quebec professor, who benefits from low cowboy expectations, Albertans expect a lot of their local PM and ever since leathervestgate, Harper has actually done a good job at looking presentable during the 15 minutes of public appearances he puts in every Stampede. In this picture, Steve gets into the spirit of things by giving a handshake so friendly to a little girl, you'd think she was his daughter.
Another Albertan on the hot-seat following his "Alberta Stampede" comments last year was Ed Stelmach. Now, after winning 72 seats in March, Stelmach could show up wearing nothing but a belt buckle and it probably wouldn't matter much. Come to think of it, wearing nothing but a belt buckle might have been better than this random mish-mash of clothing:
So what about those trying to replace Ed as Alberta's top cowboy? Well, politics are always at play during the stampede and with the ALP leadership race on, this year was no different. Saturday morning saw David Swann's breakfast go head-to-head against the federal Liberal one. For the first time in a while, Liberal MLAs visited the federal breakfast, with Dave Taylor, Darshan Kang, and Kent Hehr eating pancakes with Dion. Meanwhile, the Swann breakfast drew 2000 hungry Calgarians, among them Harry Chase. Still, in our fashion review, we must give Taylor the win over Swann:

Last year's winner of "worst dressed" for a bizarre animal sweater vest, Carolyn Bennett was much improved this year. I'll give her credit - she stampedes every year and appears to have an extensive western wear wardrobe, which isn't bad for a Toronto gal. She's pictured bellow with newly elected MLA Kent Hehr:
Finally, the Liberal candidate looking to replace Myron Thompson in Wild Rose, Jen Turcott, sports a stylish cowgirl outfit. A good try, but how could anyone look better than Myron in western wear?

Are you now or have you ever been a Bruins fan?

Sports and politics often clash, and while the Olympics seem to be the real hot button issue of late, it’s Canada and it’s payoff time, so it’s not too surprising that pucks and politics have become intertwined yet again.

The latest round of controversy comes from Quebec. The Mayor of Montreal has demanded that local firefighters take down Habs logos painted on fire stations – by the time this one is done, this may make David Miller and Dave Bronconnier’s headaches over “support our troops” decals seem mild by comparison. We’ve already seen the CP headline “Montreal Mayor Defends Team Spirit”. I’m sure we can expect “Mayor denies ties to Zdeno Chara”, “Protesters demand Mayor wear jersey”, and “Mayor resigns amid Habs-gate scandal” headlines in the weeks ahead.

Also in hot water is Michael Fortier. The Senator appears to be far more forthcoming with his hockey opinions than with government polling reports, telling reporters he believes the New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup. Uh-oh. Certainly a valid hockey opinion, but you have to wonder how the guy ever got elected in Montreal saying things like…what? Oh right.

So, anyways, Dion hears this and decides to score some points in Quebec so he goes and chews out Fortier for not having faith in the Habs. Unfortunately, a smart assed reporter asks Dion who Montreal is playing in the first round of the playoffs and Dion hums and haws until his aid jumps in with the answer. Oops. I guess it’s not too surprising that, given his blind faith in the Liberal Quebec election readiness team, he’d also have blind faith in the Canadiens.

Stephen Harper has yet to comment on the playoffs but this time of the year is no doubt difficult for a closet Leafs fan like him. Luckily, Jim Flaherty has jumped in to let Quebecers know that, yes, the Conservative Party’s respect for Quebec goes beyond the nation resolution, and includes a love of all things bleu blanc rouge. Although it's not mentioned in the article, I can only assume that Flaherty went on to blame Dalton McGuinty for the Leafs’ missing the playoffs.

Also showing a lack of faith is Mario Dumont, who has picked the Sharks to win the Cup. That prompted the following rebuke from Jean Charest, which I can only hope (but doubt) was tongue in cheek: "Mr. Dumont will have to explain to Quebecers. ... That is unacceptable." No word on Pauline Marois’ view but one assumes she’s just pissed that the team is called “Canadiens”.

All of this and we're just a few games into the first round! And you just know Denis Coderre is already drafting his witness list for the inquiry into Shane Doan’s upcoming re-appointment as Team Canada captain. So stay tuned.

At Least He Didn't Promise To Invade Norway...

There’s been a lot of hubbub over some comments made by Dion earlier in the week, that certain people have interpreted as a suggestion NATO invade Pakistan. Today’s Post editorial calls it “Stephane Dion’s Obama Moment”which is probably the nicest headline the Post has given to him in a year.

As for Dion's actual comments, here they are:

"We are going to have to discuss that very actively if they [the Pakistanis] are not able to deal with it on their own. We could consider that option with the NATO forces in order to help Pakistan help us pacify Afghanistan."

Wow! That's a totally...non-controversial opinion. What Dion was getting at is a perfectly valid argument - the At Issue Panel on CBC said as much last night. You won’t get stability in Afghanistan and the region unless Pakistan does something about its border and stops harbouring terrorists.

But the problem, as is so often the case, isn’t one of content but of communication. I don’t think there’s any doubt what the Tory message is going to be next campaign and the ambiguity in these comments plays right into that. The National had a clip of Mansbridge interviewing Dion last night and, when asked what his solution was, Dion started to answer “I don’t have any solutions” before quickly correcting himself to “I don’t have a magical solution” - if he hadn’t caught himself when he did, the Tories would be making their next attack ad buy right now (they still might).

Foreign policy seems to get everyone into hot water no matter how much of an expert they are. We know the Tories will distort every word come campaign time, so Dion is going to have to get his talking points down cold to make sure he doesn’t fall victim to another “Obama moment”.

Tuesday Tid-bits

-This is kind of cool - Stephane Dion blogging from Bali.


-Radwanski is right on the money here. There needs to be some sort of degree of presumed innocence among Parliamentarians because, if scantilycladwomangate has taught us anything, the wild accusations being tossed around are starting to get way out of hand.


-Also via AR, comes Pat Martin's latest media stunt:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
DECEMBER 11, 2007

SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN…

…with toxic toy consumer tips for Canadian parents

Oh, please, somebody get this up on Youtube because:

a) I assume Pat Martin will be the one dressed as Santa.
b) This is going to be even more awkwardly entertaining than the puppets press conference this spring.


-From this week's Hill Times:

An online Angus-Reid poll released last month of opposition party leaders showed that 34 per cent of Canadians think that Mr. Layton would make a good Prime Minister of Canada compared to Mr. Dion who had 23 per cent support and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May who had 14 per cent support.

But Liberal MP David McGuinty (Ottawa South, Ont.) said he does not put any stock in polls in between elections. "[If] Mother Theresa were alive, she [would] have obviously [had] the highest rankings too. I don't believe it for a second. When people walk into a ballot box in the next federal election, there will be many questions on their minds.

By my reading, David McGuinty is either comparing Jack Layton to mother Theresa, or implying that Mother Theresa's support levels would dry up during an election campaign. While there is probably some truth to the later statement, I have my doubts that even mother Theresa has the political sense to nix a Santa Claus press conference.

How Far We've Come

It was a year ago today that the green scarves spread throughout the Palais de Congress, propelling Stephane Dion to a surprising 5th ballot victory in Montreal. There are no shortage of reflection pieces out there about this anniversary, many of them taking on obituary form.

It would be hard to deny that it hasn't been a good start for the backpacked professor. But, at the same time, his first year wasn't any worse than the first year of his three predecessors. It certainly wasn't any worse than the first year of the other consensus candidate who won his party's leadership on the same day.

There haven't been any high profile gaffes or glaring strategic mistakes (apart from his selection of Jocelyn Coulon for the Outremont byelection). Instead, three nagging problems seem to have cropped up. First, the Tory "not a leader" ads have resonated with both the media and the general public. It was a smart branding and, since it's a lot easier for a PM than an opposition leader to look like a leader, it's gained traction. It certainly hasn't helped that a few Liberals would rather organize against Dion than against Harper but that's a fact of life in politics.

Second, the Liberal Party is a mess structurally. The constant election threat that hangs over minority governments has made rebuilding harder - the was no time for a Kingston or Aylmer conference and the party has had to focus on election readiness rather than fundraising or restructuring. In Quebec especially, the party appears to be in shambles and it certainly doesn't help matters when people like Denis Coderre and Pablo Rodriguez refuse to step up to the plate when called upon to do so by their leader. Outremont showed what a lack of organization can lead to and it's clear work needs to be done - not just by Dion, but by the party as a whole.

The third problem is Dion's less-than-Churchillian communication abilities in English. I don't think this is fatal, but there aren't a lot of obvious solutions. Easier to fix is the lack of a clear message or general sense of what the Liberal Party stands for. I think there's a lot of potential with the "three pillars" and "green economy" stuff and, luckily, most Canadians do have a good sense of what the Liberal brand represents - always being in power will do that for you. All that's really needed is an overarching theme or story as to why Harper shouldn't be Prime Minister and why Stephane Dion should be. And, no, that theme is not "Brian Mulroney". There are definitely punches to be landed on the yet-to-be-named-scandal but there needs to be an easy to understand message for Canadians as to why Stephane Dion deserves to be the next Prime Minister. On the policy front, I think Dion is well positioned. He's got ownership of the environment and poverty. He's got credibility on federalism from his Clarity Act days. I also think there are votes to be gained on Afghanistan (with a clearer position) as well as traditional Liberal issues like cities, social issues and immigration - all it takes are some decisive, well communicated policies. What's missing is a simple and clear message of what Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party represent.

Despite a decade in elected office, Dion has never been touched by scandal. The Elizabeth May deal showed he's willing to think outside the box which is encouraging. And there's a very strong team of candidates with the likes of Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy, Martha Hall Findlay, Marc Garneau, and Justin Trudeau vying for seats. With a clear election message and structural improvements to the party, there's no reason things can't be turned around.

Crime, Crime, Everywhere a Crime

Stephen Harper's new New Government appears to have survived the throne speech so its next test will be on an omnibus crime bill - most of it being composed of legislation sent to parliamentary purgatory this spring. It will be a matter of confidence which seems fair enough to me, given the size of it and the fact that it's one of the original "five priorities" that still hasn't come to pass (fun fact - "The 5 Priorities" is also the name of Stephen Harper's garage band).

Among the proposed highlights:

-tougher sentences on gun crimes (NDP has pushed for this before)
-raising age of sexual consent to 16
-higher penalties for impaired driving
-reverse onus for repeat offenders of violent crimes
-dealth penalty for anyone who doesn't pay back their leadership debt in time (that one is just speculation on my part)

Now, I do think there's a chance the NDP or Bloc might decide to support this legislation, but let's assume they don't for a minute. That leaves Stephane Dion in the unenviable position of, yet again, having to give Harper a de-facto majority or of triggering an election.

And while I think a lot of experts would agree that there are some very bad and very unnecessary proposals here, at the end of the day, this is politics. And there's enough popular policy in here that I don't think this is the hill Dion wants to die on. If he was debating this legislation against Harper in front of a law class, he'd probably win (well, at least a french law class). But explaining to Canadians why you don't want to get tough on drunk drivers and gun crimes? That's a bit harder to sell.

So this one probably falls into the "live to fight another day" category. I would advise the Liberals to let this one through and I suspect they likely will.

Second Annual "Politicians in Cowboy Hats" Blog Post

Everyone seemed to enjoy last summer's Stampede fashion review so, after hitting all the major breakfasts on the first weekend, I'm pleased to present my recap of how the big names fared this year. For some historical perspective, the Globe & Mail offers up Stampede pictures throughout the ages.

Ever since the disaster of 2005, the nation's eyes turn to Stephen Harper every Stampede. Last year, Harper hoped in and out of the Hays breakfast in under 20 minutes, wanting to avoid human interaction at all costs. To his credit, this year the PM stayed and posed for pictures for double that time. As for the outfit, Harper looked about as good in western wear as it's possible for Stephen Harper to look in western wear. Clearly his psychic stylist is earning her money, although it might be time for a taxpayer funded nutritionist.

I caught Prentice at BBQs Saturday and Sunday, and he wore the same outfit on both occasions. It's also the same thing he's worn every single day of the Stampede since, one imagines, his 12th birthday. It's a good look but it might be time for Jim to mix it up a little bit.

I can't make fun of Carolyn Bennett for her wild pink outfit since the Stampede has been running a "tough enough to wear pink" promotion to raise awareness for breast cancer. It's a shame since it would have been really easy to poke fun at her pink shirt, bizarre sweater vest, and green Dion scarf.

Kevin Taft has been everywhere this week - the Stampede parade Friday, a series of breakfasts Saturday, and the Hays breakfast Sunday. The pink worked well on Friday, but Kevin's wife pulled off Western a lot better than him at the Hays breakfast Sunday. The jacket? Definitely a no-no. Still, at least Kevin is aware that it's the Calgary Stampede.

Actual conversation with Jason Kenney:

Me: Hey Jason, you're in MP - I was hoping to get a picture with you.
Jason: Are you Young Liberals or Young Conservatives?

Me: Young Liberals.

Jason: I won't hold it against you. I used to be a Young Liberal too.

Me: Yeah, in Goodale's office. Just wanted the picture because I've got a collection of pictures of myself with Tory MPs...I got one with me and Anders last year.

Jason: Ha Ha. Well I'm not as bad as Rob, eh?

And, with that, Jason Kennedy went up about 200% in my books. Admittedly, he was starting pretty low so a 200% increase isn't a lot, but he's climbing.

Speaking of which...

Craig Cheffins, new to elected politics, obviously has yet to learn the "never dance when there's a camera around" rule.

Stephane Dion looked almost the same as he did last year. For a French University professor, he always presents himself surprisingly well at Stampede.

Peter Miliken, a frequent visitor to the Hays breakfast flashes his sheriff badge. If only he could lay down the law in the House of Commons and keep the children in order...

Harry Chase is probably the only politician in Canada who can wear a coat like that and pull it off. The man looks like he's straight out of a Western and probably deserves "best dressed 2007" for that. That said, it's never a good sign when you need to identify yourself as an MLA on your apron.

There were also a bunch of other politicians at the Hays breakfast I wasn't able to track down. Lawrence Cannon was out and about espousing the values of Quebec nationhood to the Calgary faithful (which means he must have felt a bit like Jason Jones in those Molson Canadian commercials). Bill Casey was also shaking hands. Carol Skelton may have been around but since no one alive knows what she looks like, I don't have a picture (unless she accidentally wandered into one of the other shots).

Whatchu Talkin About?

Macleans had some fun with google site search to find out what topics got the most play on Stephen Harper's website over the past year. For those keeping track, the environment narrowly edged out crime, taxes, accountability, health care, child care, and, in a bit of a surprise, "dancing with the stars".

So, I figured I'd run my site through the machine and see what I've been blogging about.

-Not only does he win the hamburger poll and the golfing poll, but Stephen Harper tops the equally scientific Calgary Grit poll with 1440 references. That leaves him miles ahead of Jack Layton (215), Stephane Dion (95), and Gilles Duceppe (65).

-Among Liberals, Dion is edged out by Joe Volpe (180), Gerard Kennedy (1380), and Michael Ignatieff (175). Hot on his heels are Jean Lapierre (83) and Garth Turner (42). [note: Unlike Garth Turner's blog where the only thing Garth Turner has ever talked about is Garth Turner].

-Much like Stephen Harper, I don't have a lot of time for Harper Cabinet Ministers. Peter Mackay (83) and Rona Ambrose gets decent ink (48), while Jim Flaherty (19), Lawrence Cannon (22), and Gordon O'Connor (19) have earned a bit of my time. But Maxime Bernier (9), Carole Skelton (1), and Jean-Pierre Blackburn (1) haven't exactly been setting the blogosphere on fire.

-I am, of course, always ready to blog about the important issues of the day, such as the Shane Doan kerflufle (4), Stephen Harper's stylist (11), and Jack Layton's "big ass" comments (4). [note: in fairness, "big ass" comments on this blog could be in reference to a lot of things including, ironically enough, Jack himself]

-On the historical side, Joe Clark (98) beats Pierre Trudeau (63). However, Justin Trudeau (38) does best Ben Mulroney (15).

-On a lighter note, Britney Spears drew 5 mentions, Paris Hilton got 6, and Prince Harry got 4. Lindsay Lohan has never been mentioned on this blog (...until now).

Stephane Dion is not a hero. You know who is a hero? Hiro. From Heroes.

Unable to break into majority government territory, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have turned to the burning issue on everyone's mind this spring...yes...Senate Reform! An exciting series of new ads attack Dion for...zzzz.....sorry, I'm already sleepy just thinking about the topic.

That's right, apparently Liberal Senators are delaying Harper's Senate Reform Bill. Uh-oh. If this doesn't spur protests on the grounds of Parliament Hill, I don't know what will.

The best part of the ads is that their main focus seems to be to convince Canadians that Stephane Dion is not a hero. I mean, I like the guy, but I'd never consider Stephane Dion my hero. I doubt even Jason Cherniak considers Stephane Dion his hero. And, let's say for a second that Canadians from coast to coast do consider Stephane Dion their hero. I don't think his stance on Senate Reform is going to make anyone change their opinions. After watching 23 episodes of Heroes this year, never did I once see a hero who had the ability to speed legislation through the Senate. (although, it would make for a fun episode if John Baird wanted to do a guest spot next season)



Oh, and I'm not positive if saying your opponent is unfit to lead because he obstructs Senate business is necessarily wise one week after a handbook on how to obstruct parliament's business was leaked.


I'm just sayin'.