Ontario Budget 2012: McGuinty avoids war with Hudak and Horwath, by starting one with unions

During the minority government era in federal politics, we all grew accustomed to the annual spring budget dance - a popular budget full of election treats, and never ending speculation over whether or not it would trigger an election.

Yet Dalton McGuinty's first minority government budget felt different. Sure, Tim Hudak pushed out his chest and boldly declared he'd vote against it (despite not giving any kind of coherent explanation on how he'd balance the books). And yes, Andrea Horwath was not pleased and will now "consult" with Ontarians over what to do. But the reality is the NDP will support the budget, if only because none of the parties want - or can afford - an election.

The budget itself was decidedly "treat-free" - there's not a single ounce of sugar in it. Not even a Harper-esque tax credit for buying sunscreen. Rather, the Liberal story of the budget was about what the government didn't do - they didn't scrap all day kindergarten, they didn't cut Health Care, they didn't increase class sizes.

Of course, if the benchmark is the Drummond Report, then what the government didn't do, might be enough to help the public swallow this tough medicine budget. I feel like most Ontarians recognize tough decisions are needed, and the cutbacks and wage freezes McGuinty has proposed will be far less painful than Rae Days, tax hikes, or health care cuts.

Unless you're in a union, that is. A public sector wage freeze is easier said than done, so Ontario is in for a year of labour unrest.

While McGuinty's budget will ensure campaign signs stay locked up, it's time to pull out the strike signs.

The Drummond Report

The eagerly anticipated Drummond report has been released - if you're into horror stories, by all means curl up by the fire and read the full 562 pages here.

In it, Drummond offers 320 recommendations. The initial reaction by many pundits is that this puts NcGuinty in a bind, since he will never agree to reverse tuition cuts or scrap full-day kindergarten.

Actually, the report might prove to be a political saving-grace for McGuinty. Tough cuts are coming, and this report offers McGuinty the political cover he needs to implement them. Because if those on left holler about cuts, McGuinty can calmly put his hand on their shoulder and in his best Premier dad voice say "I know it's been tough, but it could have been a lot worse"; this gives him an opportunity to present himself as the saviour of green energy and education all over again.

Politics is all about managing expectations, and anything McGuinty brings forward now is going to seem a lot less draconian, when measured against the Drummond benchmark.

Mind you, that's assuming McGuinty brings forward a serious budget this spring. If he just plugs his ears and ignores the bulk of the valuable advice Drummond offers, then McGuinty will have effectively used taxpayer dollars to help develop the backbone of Tim Hudak's next election platform.

Stay tuned.

An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership

It's been six months since I last looked in on the field of possible Liberal leadership candidates, and that's because, well, there's not much to report. Apart from speculation surrounding the interim leader, there's been little chatter in the media, on blogs, or in Liberal circles.

However, the Liberal Biennial convention may have marked the unofficial starting gun on the leadership race, as names were floated around the convention hall and in hospitality suites. Sure, most of the likely contenders say they're not interested, but that's unlikely to quiet the rumours.

Today, a look at the ten most talked about names. Tomorrow, a look at some of the sleeper candidates.



Bob Rae

The case for Rae: Even Rae's harshest critics within the Liberal Party acknowledge he's done a bang-up job as interim leader and he's the best politician we have.

Is he a contender? If Rae runs, he'd have an impressive organization behind him. Do I think he'll be the next leader? No, not really. As Rae himself said in May, the party is likely to look to a new generation of leadership. But if you put $10 on Rae and asked me to put $10 on just one other name, I'd have a hard time thinking of someone who is more likely to be the next leader.

Why he isn't running: "I'm focusing on the job of interim leader". Plus, he made a deal with his wife.



Dominic LeBlanc

The case for LeBlanc: Young, experienced, bilingual. Deep Liberal roots, but still a fresh face for most.

Is he a contender? If I had to put a name down on that $10 bet I mentioned above, it would likely be on Dominic. He's got pieces of an organization left over from his 14 minute leadership run in 2008, and seems to be the only "high profile" candidate who has not categorically ruled out running.

Will he run? LeBlanc was bullish after the election, but has been quiet since then.



Justin Trudeau

The case for Trudeau: He's a political superstar, who has the potential to get Liberals and Canadians excited about the Liberal Party.

Is he a contender? If he runs, he will likely win.

Why he isn't running: "My kids are 2 and 4 and I barely see them enough as it is."



Dalton McGuinty

The case for Dalton: He's the most successful Liberal in Canada right now. The man has grown immensely as a politician over the past decade.

Is he a contender? Given the name recognition and organization he'd bring to the table, he'd likely be the frontrunner.

Why he isn't running: He has an ok day job right now. And he "wants to remain married".



David McGuinty

The case for David: If you can't get Dalton, he'd be the next best thing. I likely wouldn't use that slogan on a button but, like his brother, David is experienced, rarely missteps, and has grown as a politician over the years.

Is he a contender? He'd have a better chance if he'd left Ottawa more than once or twice since being elected as an MP, but he's a capable politician and the McGuinty organization should not be underestimated.

Will he run? He's "mulling" a run.



Marc Garneau

The case for Garneau: Bilingual, respected...and he was a freaking astronaut! How cool is that!

Is he a contender? If you buy into the "alternance" theory, it might be a francophone's turn. At the very least, Garneau would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media.

Will he run? You may have missed it if you weren't reading the political pages on December 25th, but Garneau is considering a run.



Scott Brison

The case for Brison: Like Rae, Brison is a talented politician with the gift of the gab - well spoken, with a quick wit.

Is he a contender? His campaign struggled in 2006, but Brison's pitch should find a receptive audience this time.

Why he isn't running: “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces”



Denis Coderre

The case for Coderre: I'm really not the person who should be answering this.

Is he a contender? Coderre is one of the best organizers in the Liberal Party. I wouldn't expect him to win, but he could very easily carry Quebec.

Will he run? Coderre is considering a run for LPC leadership, Mayor of Montreal, or coach of the Montreal Canadiens.



Martin Cauchon

The case for Cauchon: Has an impressive track record, is well spoken, and could be the key to winning back Quebec.

Is he a contender? Cauchon has been thinking about running for a decade, so I suspect he'd be able to put a strong team together, even outside Quebec.

Will he run? He hosted a hospitality suite at the convention. Of course, we have yet to hear publicly on the question of his candidacy from Cauchon, or his wife.



Gerard Kennedy

The case for Kennedy: I've made the case before, and I'd argue Kennedy was ahead of the game when he talked about the Liberal Party needing to rebuild itself, back in 2006.

Is he a contender? Well, the party has been moving down the "order of finish" list from 2006 (from Dion to Ignatieff to Rae...), so I guess it's his turn.

Will he run? He hasn't closed the door.

The Fall and Rise of Dalton McGuinty

If I told you a few months ago there would be a picture of Dalton McGuinty waving on newspaper front pages October 7th, you'd have assumed it would be on the Sun, directly below a "GOODBYE! GOOD RIDDANCE!" headline .

After all, when the unofficial campaign kicked off this spring, McGuinty was 10 or 15 points down. You couldn't turn on the TV without seeing a PC "Taxman" commercial. Over a dozen MPPs saw the way the wind was blowing and decided against running for re-election. Opportunists viewed a Tory nomination as the easiest way to power.

Yet Dalton McGuinty earned a rare third term last night. How the hell did this happen?

The first, and perhaps most important, decision of his campaign team was to highlight the Liberal record. Rather than going neg in response to the taxman ads, the Liberals ran a series of crisp and clean commercials featuring nothing but Dalton McGuinty talking about his record. The ad started with McGuinty sheepishly admitting he wasn't the most popular guy in Canada, before making the case for re-election. The supporting arguments were easy to understand and were backed up with facts and figures.

The Liberals carried this largely positive tone into the fall. Important, considering the grumpy nature of the electorate and the dynamics of a three-party race - simply hitting Hudak over the head day in and out would have left Andrea Horwath free to pick up the pieces. By selling McGuinty, the Liberals were better able to capitalize on Hudak's missteps.

And misstep he did. I'm not talking about the "foreign workers" slip, the homophobic pamphlet, or Cheryl Miller's unfortunate case of honesty. Hudak's biggest mistake was his campaign message, which could be summed up in four words - "taxes bad, McGuinty bad". Yes, no one likes taxes. Yes, many agree McGuinty is the taxman. But Hudak wasn't promising to remove the HST and McGuinty wasn't promising to increase it. Sure, Hudak's platform contained a few tax cuts in it, but he didn't talk much about them and never really explained how he'd balance the books. Hudak's campaign was curiously silent on all other issues - except for the all-important issue of BBQ abilities.

The Liberal campaign was equally focused and on message, but was cooking with more ingredients. They played to the Liberal strengths of Health Care and education, while promising new jobs. Their platform was more modest than their opponents', so when the markets began to teeter, they were able to quickly pivot to the same "experienced leadership in uncertain times" pitch Stephen Harper rode to victory this spring. Let's all say it together now - we need a strong, stable, Conservative Liberal government!

Now, I don't want to oversell this - after all, the Liberal vote fell 5 percentage points, and they lost 17 seats. They barely got more votes than the Conservatives. It was a humbling result.

But McGuinty still won. He won by talking about issues that mattered to voters, and made a convincing case for why he deserved re-election. Tim Hudak talked a lot about about McGuinty's shortcomings and talked a lot about "change" - but never articulated what it was he would change.

So while the end result may be a bit of a surprise, it shouldn't be. The Liberals made a better case for why they should be in power than the PCs, and won. It's as simple as that.

Ontario Votes

Ontarians head to the polls today, with the two parties deadlocked a Liberal majority looming a PC victory likely the outcome still up in the air.

I'll be voting for Dalton McGuinty. No surprise there. But I still want to take a moment to explain why, because I truly believe this is a government deserving of re-election.

When I first moved to Ontario in 2008, I had rather lukewarm feelings towards the Premier. He'd spoken well at an Alberta Liberal convention a few years earlier, but it's not like he had the crowd chanting "yes we can!". My sense was he'd been a competent Premier but had largely wasted his first term, preferring to govern towards re-election than towards some grander vision.

But during my time in Ontario, I've grown more and more impressed with McGuinty, both in terms of his political abilities and, more importantly, by what he's managed to accomplish.

Throughout his second term, McGuinty hasn't shied away from thinking big. His push on green energy has had mixed results - smog days are down and Hydro bills are up...but the important thing is that Ontario has begun shifting from the industries of yesterday towards the industries of tomorrow. McGuinty introduced the HST knowing full well it would be popular with experts and economists, but not with the public.

In less controversial moves, he has continued to make improvements to Ontario's Health Care and education systems. Ontario wait times have gone from the longest in Canada to the shortest. I was at a party a few weeks ago, and people were remarking about how easy it is to find a family doctor these days. Full day kindergarten has come to Ontario. Ontario schools are now ranked number 1 in the English speaking world. If I sound like a Liberal commercial, it's because I am. And that's another reason I'm proud to be voting Liberal.

Back this spring, McGuinty was getting the snot punched out of him by everyone. PC ads calling him "the Taxman" were airing on every channel. The temptation must have been uncontrollable to punch back. Instead, the Liberals began airing minute-long commercials with nothing but McGuinty talking about his record. He used facts. He cited third party validators. He made the case for re-election.

Of course he has taken some jabs at his opponents this campaign. That's the name of the game. But the Liberals have been the only party treating voters like grown-ups. It showed in the debate, when McGuinty spent the night boring the audience with facts, Hudak spent the night finding new ways to say "taxes bad, McGuinty bad", and Andrea Horwath spent the night producing a string of platitudes and charming stories.

The grownup tone of the Liberal campaign was also matched with a grownup platform. The Liberal platform is more modest than the Tories', who pretend they'll be able to cut taxes without cutting services. The NDP platform is even more troubling - in addition to promises that would cripple the economy, Horwath has abandoned the NDP's traditional role of looking out for the little guy, in favour of gimmicky promises. The environment? She likes the idea of it, but wants to cut taxes on gas guzzlers and home heating. Taxes, I would add, which are paid disproportionately by the richest Ontarians.

Those are some of the reasons I'll be voting Liberal today. I'm sure a lot of Ontarians - the majority in fact - disagree with me. If you do disagree, then make sure you too get out and vote today, so that your voice is heard.

The Sun Won't Come Out For Hudak

The Toronto Star's endorsement of Dalton McGuinty shouldn't surprise anyone. Yes, they were briefly the "Orange Star" this spring, but anyone who has read their Ontario election coverage saw this one coming a mile away.

Today's Globe endorsement is likely a bit more meaningful - at least, if you think newspaper endorsements mean much of anything (they don't). After all, the paper has endorsed Stephen Harper the last three federal elections. And although their endorsement of McGuinty is measured, it's far less measured than the most Globe endorsements which are usually typed with one hand while the other one firmly holds the editorial board's nose.

So this leaves Tim Hudak with nothing but the Sun endorse...what? Yikes.

Yes, even the Sun has decided against endorsing the Tories this campaign. They admit they "wanted" to like Tim, but just couldn't. Guess he doesn't look as good in the flesh as his eHarmony profile.

Of course, Hudak could still win the election. But these (non) endorsements speak to the type of campaign he has run - at times juvenile, always negative, with no more than a minute or two of substance sprinkled on the "taxes bad" talking points. As the federal Liberals have learned of late, if you don't give people a good reason to vote for you, they usually don't. The same goes for newspaper endorsements.


UPDATE: Hudak lands the Post.

The Morning After

Last night was the lone televised debate of the Ontario election campaign. With the vote too close to call, a lot was riding on it, and after last night...

...not a heck of a lot changed. I have a hard time seeing how anyone would actually change their mind as a result of last night's debate, and the Ipsos flash poll largely confirms that.

After all, if you're like me and you like Dalton McGuinty, you liked what you saw. While the opposition focused on buzzwords and empty anecdotes ("Gary the accountant tells me he lost his job because of the HST"), McGuinty made his case his facts and figures. He responded to attacks, defended his record, and talked about his plans. He looked and sounded like was a grown up - some might even say a Premier.

That's not to say it was a masterful performance we will all rave about years from now. He fought much of the debate on weaker ground - there was a lot more talk about taxes and energy prices than about Health Care and education. He took some hits. But that's the life of an incumbent - the important thing is, he held his ground.

Hudak was the leader who most exceeded my expectations, but that likely says more about my expectations than about his performance. I liked his "big screen TV" and "lemonade stand" metaphors, and he showed real emotion when talking about his daughter's experience in the Health Care system. If you were scoring the debate on points, Hudak landed the most blows. His "nobody believes you anymore" soundbite will probably lead off most clip packages.

However, the one knock on Hudak's performance is a biggie. Quite simply, he looked and sounded like an opposition leader, not a Premier. He mentioned "Changebook" and his "5 point jobs plan" a few times, but there were only scattered descriptions of specific platform promises. He went after McGuinty at every opportunity - even when asked directly about what bold ideas he had for Ontario. It was a good performance, but not one that screamed "Premier-in-waiting".

And then there's Andrea Horwath. Horwath had the most to gain from this debate, and she likely helped herself out a bit. She was likable, and played those tried and true NDP hits - "hike up corporate taxes", "results for people", "putting people first".

Personally, I wasn't moved. She talked about the difficulty of balancing a family budget as a mom...on her lowly six-figure MPP salary. She talked about the awful treatment her son received at a Hamilton hospital...and later admitted the story was more "illustration" than fact. She told a story about a woman who gave her a big hug because she loved the NDP platform so much.

Personally, I found it all manipulative and lacking substance. But it will play to Horwath's base, and may even rope in a few undecided votes.

Add it all up, and after 90 minutes of debating, we're no closer to figuring out who will win on October 6th.

Ontario Debates

No one knows who will win the Ontario election, two of the three leaders remain virtual unknowns, and the campaign still lacks a ballot question. Yet somehow, without warning, Ontario finds itself just 9 sleeps away from Voting Day.

So tonight's debate will be important.

I'll be live-blogging the festivities starting at 6:30, and will offer my thoughts on why Dalton McGuinty won afterwards.

For those just tuning in tonight, here's a look at the players:

Dalton McGuinty: McGuinty has taken his lumps over the past eight years, and was written off by most pundits just a few months ago. Voters wanted change, Ontario's economy was sputtering, and the HST was about to claim its second victim. Yet here we are, closing in on E-Day, and "The Taxman" is tied with Tim Hudak.

McGuinty has looked cool and been on message since day 1. He has played up his "experienced leadership" through tough economic times, and cautioned voters against risking Ontario's stable economic recovery on unproven leaders. The man is one blue sweater vest away from being mistaken for Stephen Harper. I know Liberals will squirm at those words, but I mean it in the nicest way possible.


Tim Hudak: The PC campaign has focused almost exclusively on two isses - taxes, and Hudak's BBQ skills. While most voters concerned about these two issues will no doubt vote PC on October 6th, Hudak's set list hasn't moved much beyond this (with the exception of his controversial "foreign workers" jab). Given McGuinty hasn't actually promised to raise taxes, and is likely a fine BBQer himself, Hudak will need to show he's more than a tax cut sound machine tonight, if he wants to win.

Hudak always struck me as a bit of a Stockwell Day type, so he's the odds-on favourite to use a prop during tonight's debate.


Andrea Horwath: Most Ontarians can't pronounce her name and wouldn't recognize her on the street, yet they'll still tell you they like Andrea Horwath.

Being liked and unknown means Horwath has the most riding on tonight. A strong performance, and it's not impossible for her to pull off an "accidental" win on election night à la Bob Rae. If she Iggies the debate, all the positive Jack Layton feelings in the world won't be enough to keep her in the mid-20s.

Horwath will be standing centre stage tonight, which is appropriate, since all eyes will be on her.

This Week in Ontario - And They're Off!

Political excitement at the federal level may have evaporated faster than water in downtown Toronto, but the provincial scene is still very much alive this summer across Ontario.

Among this week's highlights:


1. The Liberals scored a big endorsement from David Suzuki, whose foundation criticized the Ontario NDP last week.


2. The NDP played up their "Buy Ontario" platform. Which is a great idea, until the inevitable news story comes out that their lawn signs were made in Michigan, or some equally trivial offense.


3. Tim Hudak is promising to cut red tape - in fact, he's willing to create a whole new ministerial office to do just that. I feel like that should have been a West Wing walk-and-talk, along the the lines of:

"So he wants to cut $30 million in government spending and waste in the Department of Agriculture. How's he going to do that?"
"He'll hire someone, staff him, and have him conduct an extensive review of all spending."
"How much will that cost?"
"$35 million."

I'm sure Aaron Sorkin would have a wittier way to go about it, but you get the point.

Still, Rob Ford rode the gravy train to victory, and Hudak has made the very clever promise to dock his own pay if he can't de-gravy Queen's Park. A pledge like that creates a sense that he's serious and that it's more than the usual political doublespeak.

Hidden Agenda?

The Ontario Tories bared more than their...uhh...private members...this weekend, releasing their election platform (summarized by CP here).

I've always been a fan of parties releasing their platforms early - it gives you time to define yourself, and show voters what you stand for. Which in Tim Hudak's case, seems to be largely what Dalton McGuinty stands for. Here's how Adam Radwanski describes it:

Change for the sake of change.

That, roughly, is Tim Hudak’s estimate of what Ontarians want in this year’s provincial election. So on Sunday, the Progressive Conservative Leader unveiled a platform – “changebook” – that gives voters the option of keeping most of Dalton McGuinty’s priorities, without keeping Dalton McGuinty.

Sure, Hudak dangles a few carrots, but the HST, corporate tax cuts, and all-day kindergarten are here to stay, and Hudak promises only a few administrative tweaks to the Health Care system. This follows up recent flip-flips on the Human Rights Tribunal and health premiums. Sure, he's still promising to scale back the Green Energy Act, but it's unclear where he'll find the kilowatts to accomplish this and still follow through on McGuinty's promise to close Ontario's coal plants by 2014.

There are, of course, a few populist trinkets recycled from the federal election - income splitting for couples and removing the HST from home heating fuels. While these will be popular, they do open up Hudak to the "hidden agenda" attack. After all, Hudak will not be able to pay for his $3-11 billion in goodies (depending on how you count it) solely by having 6 fewer Cabinet Ministers.

So expect the Liberals to counter with some nasty hidden agenda commercials once we get closer to Election Day. For now, the OLP has launched a feel-good spot - it's a minute long, very similar in style to the positive beer commercials run by Harper last election.

Campbell Resigns

One of the most interesting story lines in Canadian politics over the past year has been the fate of the three Liberal Titans - Dalton McGuinty, Jean Charest, and Gordon Campbell. Their political background, beliefs, and styles are very different, but they've dominated the political landscape in Canada for close to a decade. Hell, the federal Liberals have gone through four leaders since this trio took power of the country's three largest provinces at the start of the decade.

Sure, they all had setbacks - Campbell's famous DUI, McGuinty's broken promise, and Charest's near-defeat in 2007. But up until recently, things were going swimmingly for them.

McGuinty trounced John Tory in 2007, leaving the provincial PCs in complete disarray. Charest bounced back in 2008, capturing a majority government. Gordon Campbell took a third straight majority in 2009, in a province where Premiers usually wear out their welcome before the paint dries in their office.

But ever since Campbell's re-election, the trio has fallen on hard times. The HST burned McGuinty first, then Campbell. And Jean Charest has had to fend off daily scandals. In a recent Angus Reid survey, Campbell's approval rating came in at 9%. Charest and McGuinty haven't done much better themselves lately.

So Campbell decided to pack it up, in an attempt to save his party from an electoral wipe-out in 2013. McGuinty is ready to run for a third term and might very well win it. As for Charest - the man is a fighter and comes back to life more often than slasher film villains, but it wouldn't at all surprise me to see him make the same call as Campbell early next year.

Outside of the three Liberal Titans, Danny Williams is the only current Premier who has managed to win re-election. And Danny, being Danny, is an exception in every sense.

Maybe it's part of a larger "time for a change" mood sweeping the nation. Maybe it's just a coincidence in timing. But even if McGuinty is re-elected next year, he's going to be surrounded by a lot of fresh blood on the provincial scene.

Shuffle

McGuinty shuffles the deck:

Hoping to breathe new life into his government after a summer marked by blunders, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty unveiled a cabinet shuffle that elevated two new faces, and had several veterans either demoted or switching chairs.

John Gerretsen lost his position Wednesday as the province’s Environment Minister, and has been moved to Minister of Consumer Services, after the controversial eco-fees program that led to a significant backlash from consumer and retail groups last month. And Rick Bartolucci was shuffled from Minister of Community Safety and Correctional Services to Municipal Affairs and Housing after the government faced scrutiny about handing special powers to police during the recent G20 summit in Toronto. Jim Bradley is switching jobs with Mr. Bartolucci.

In addition to shuffling some of his veterans, Mr. McGuinty added two former mayors to the mix.Former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray and former Ottawa mayor Bob Chiarelli, who both won Liberal by-elections earlier this year, were awarded posts as Minister of Research and Innovation and Minister of Infrastructure, respectively.

For analysis, check out Radwanski.

It Tastes Awful. And it Works.

Ontario was hit with an earthquake today, but the real question people are asking is whether or not the earth will move on July 1st. That's when the HST will be implemented - how Ontarians react may very well decide who wins next year's election.

Tim Hudak, who used to think the HST was a nifty idea and probably still does deep down inside, has spent the last year crusading against it. Twelve of the twenty press releases he's put out in June have specifically mentioned the HST. It's abundantly obvious Hudak wants to make the next election all about the HST, as he tries to become Ontario's version of Bill Vander Zalm.

McGuinty, meanwhile, has fought back with a TV ad:



In it, Dalton sits in the backyard and talks about the HST, calling it "strong medicine". I guess they've gone the Buckley's route on this one - "It tastes awful. And it works".

So it's cough medicine up against cotton candy. While voters generally prefer cotton candy, the Ontario Grits appear to be gambling that voters will trust the guy telling them the cough medicine will make their cough go away more than the guy telling them cotton candy will work just as well. That's why McGuinty is being featured prominently in the ads. Make him look like a strong leader who makes tough choices. He's the decider.

Personally, I don't doubt for a second the HST is good policy. Every expert says it is. Hell, Jim Flaherty says it is and he won an award for being the greatest Finance Minister ever or something like that.

Moving beyond all the rhetoric, I think it's clear some people will come out ahead and some will wind up behind. Some things will cost more and more will cost less. Why I think the province as a whole will come out ahead is that it will eliminate a lot of inefficiencies.

Revenue Minister John Wilkinson, who has the unenviable job of selling the HST, has a great anecdote about this. Currently, hospitals pay PST on bathroom supplies for visitor bathrooms...but not for patient bathrooms. So the Ontario government is literally paying people to inspect how toilet paper is used. He jokes about money being flushed down the drain, but I can think of more colourful metaphors to use.

It's for reasons like that I feel this will be a good move for Ontario on the whole. Politically, it all depends on whether Ontarians are willing to hold their noses and swallow the Buckley's.

McGuinty's 2011 Playbook: Mr. Freeze versus The Joker

It's hard to boil a 224 page budget down to one line item. But the early reaction to Thursday's Ontario budget has been all about McGuinty's pledge to freeze public sector wages.

Is it good policy? It seems reasonable enough to me given the tough economic times, but then again, I might have a different opinion if I were a public sector employee. And that's why this budget could compound McGuinty's problems. Because a wage freeze is something people will feel, it impacts a lot of people, and it impacts a lot of people who I would guess vote Liberal in higher-than-average numbers.

But this fits into McGuinty's modus operandi of late. He's clearly trying to brand himself as a man capable of making tough decisions - as a serious politician. It's not a bad narrative to run with when you're up against a young, inexperienced leader who offers gimmicks over substance. And it doesn't hurt that Hudak's MPPs routinely do less-than-serious things like getting banned from the legislature and suggesting that Toronto separate from Ontario.

As for the rest of the budget, there's good and bad. An 8 year plan to balance the books is asinine - that's two elections down the road and the province will change dramatically during that time. It would be like an 8 year plan for the Leafs to win the cup - yes, you can't promise to do it any sooner, but it's not so much a plan as it is wishful thinking.

The good, in my opinion, in the increase in post-secondary spaces, and McGuinty pushing ahead with his all day kindergarten plan. These are the sort of things that will benefit Ontario in the long run. The sort of things serious politicians do.

Provincial Uprising

Angus Reid has updated their Premier approval numbers from November and it's not rosy - only 2 of the 10 Premiers crack the 30% approval barrier.

And suddenly, Stephen Harper's underwhelming poll numbers start looking a lot more whelming by comparison. The man has struggled of late and may spend his life chasing an unobtainable majority, but at a time when voters are P.O.'d at governments coast-to-coast, he's still Canadians' top choice for Prime Minister.

The Premiers

Danny Williams 80% approve, 11% disapprove
Brad Wall 56% approve, 24% disapprove
Greg Selinger 27% approve, 28% disapprove
Darrel Dexter 23% approve, 53% disapprove
Gordon Campbell 23% approve, 60% disapprove
Jean Charest 22% approve, 53% disapprove
Dalton McGuinty 21% approve, 52% disapprove
Ed Stelmach 16% approve, 62% disapprove
Shawn Graham 15% approve, 62% disapprove

Despite his American vacation, Danny Williams towers over the field. 80%? Crap, I'm not sure Sidney Crosby could get that. The scary thing is, 80% is on the low side compared to other recent polls.

More and more, Danny is looking like this generation's Ralph Klein - he could choke 101 puppies to death in the Legislative Assembly and voters would shrug and say "that's just Danny being Danny". Because, after all, even puppies don't get 80% approval ratings, no matter how cute they are.

What's remarkable is that Williams has done it without the same partisan foundation Klein stood on - it's not like Newfoundland is an ultra-Conservative province, after all. I don't know how he does it, but if you could bottle Danny Williams, a teaspoon of him a day would turn anyone into a contender.

The news is less good for Danny's fellow Atlantic Canadians, who could certainly use a teaspoon or two of the Williams magic.

The biggest loser since November is Nova Scotia's Darrell Dexter, who has seen a 20 point swing in his numbers, most likely due to a series of expense claim scandals. Let this be a cautionary tale to all you kids out there on the dangers of experimenting with NDP governments.

Shawn Graham is now less popular than Ed Stelmach, which tells you all you all you need to know about how the New Brunswick Hydro sale has gone over. The weird thing is, you can't count Graham out in the upcoming election (likely this September) - a recent poll has him just 6 points down. The same holds true for equally unpopular McGuinty, Charest, and Stelmach.

No matter how cruddy the job of "Premier" has become, it still beats "opposition leader".

'Tis the Season to Shuffle

You know, it occurs to me I have more to say about a PC Cabinet shuffle in a province I don't live in, than on McGuinty's shuffle today. Perhaps I'll make following Ontario politics closer my New Years resolution for 2010.

So I'll be sure to update this post with links to some solid post-shuffle analysis from people who know what they're talking about.

As for my take, a large scale shuffle was definitely needed. Let's be honest, McGuinty has lost some big guns, and his 2009 was about as good as Tiger Woods'. This move lets Dalton recalibrate and refocus. Moreover, there's been some talk of a new throne speech when Queen's Park resumes sitting, although with proroguing on the "not hot" list for 2010, that may not be in the cards.

Beyond that, I won't comment much on the individual moves. Brad Duguid is the big winner, taking over Energy (making him the point man on the Green Energy Act's implementation) - everyone I know in the know speaks highly of him and the work he did in Aboriginal Affairs. Eric Hoskins is an excellent choice for Citizenship and Immigration. There's also been some speculation that one of the combo ministries could be split to let Glen Murray in after the by election, which would be a welcome addition.

But while Alberta's shuffle was designed to signal a new (rightward) shift, I don't really get the sense this one was designed to send a big message to the electorate. Rather, this was about McGuinty putting in place the team he wants selling his government in the lead-up to the 2011 provincial election.


SEE ALSO:
Steele
Radwanski

On the bright side, Ignatieff was picked as "the leader you'd most like to attend an Isaiah Berlin leture with"

Angus Reid has a fun poll out, where they ask "the beer question", amongst others. In it, we learn that the mustached socialist is the "jock" of Canadian politics - he's the one voters would like to have a beer with, or have on their sports team. Harper wins most of the "prime ministerial" questions - negotiating with other countries and representing Canada. Ignatieff, well, he's the one voters would go to for a book recommendation, and they'd love to have him on their trivia team.

The question that really caught my eye was this one - "who would you prefer being Prime Minister in the event of another Quebec referendum?". And, wouldn't you know it? The firewall guy from Calgary wins hands down - 29% to 17% (for Ignatieff) to 10% (for Layton). It shows the kind of progress Harper has made in the eyes of voters over the past few years.


ALSO...

The other poll released this weekend (but fielded a month ago), shows McGuinty up 38% to 34% on Tim Hudak in Ontario. Nothing too surprising there - it's well in line with what the Ontario polls have been saying over the past 5 or 6 months.



UPDATE: Angus vote numbers are out, and it's 36-29...about the normal over the past few years...

Dalton McGuinty's Giant Sigh of Relief

I need to start this off with the mandatory "by elections are meaningless blah blah blah" disclaimer. And, at first glance, it's hard for results to look any less meaningless than what we got:

Hoskins (Lib) - 47% (--)
Levy (PC) - 29% (+2%)
Heller (NDP) - 17% (+1%)
Chopik (GP) - 5% (-3%)

Ho hum. Toss in the low voter turn-out (I'd project it out to be about 33% when all the votes are counted) and the fact that the Liberals didn't have to face a Wild Rose Alliance candidate, and this looks like just a run of the mill Liberal hold.

But the ingredients were all in place for an upset. Consider:

1. A long time, high profile, popular incumbent leaves office
2. A two-term government with a comfortable majority (safe to "send a message")
3. HST
4. OLG
5. E-Health
6. Did I mention HST?
7. A new Tory leader

And, yeah, the former Liberal MPP is facing manslaughter charges.

So this could have been a disaster for McGuinty. Instead, he gets a convincing win, which should stem any momentum Tim Hudak may have been building, and earn McGuinty a far more favourable narrative than he would have gotten had St. Paul's fallen.

Oh, and lost in all the above analysis is the fact that a great humanitarian, Dr. Eric Hoskins, is now an MPP. This is a guy who has given his life to helping heal children in war zones around the world. I was door knocking tonight with a University friend of Eric's who first met him in Ethiopia, and he couldn't stop saying great things to say about Eric. Quite simply, this man is in politics for all the right reasons, and we need more people like Eric Hoskins involved in the political process. So maybe it's best to look past the spin and just focus in on that.

I’d like to tax the world in perfect harmony…

Jim Flaherty may have just become Dalton McGuinty’s new best friend. More on that in second.

McGuinty brought forward his first recession budget today, joining virtually every other jurisdiction in the world by sending the province spiraling into deficit (including Newfoundland!). The bulk of the spending is on infrastructure - 32.5 billion over two years. If you're curious where everything else is going (and I know you're not), you can read the full budget here.

But let’s be honest – there's only one thing in this budget people will be talking about. And the word of the day is “harmonization”, after McGuinty’s pledge to harmonize the GST and PST in Ontario:

Ontario will also undertake major tax reforms, including a move to implement a harmonized sales tax that will combine the 8 per cent provincial sales tax with the 5 per cent federal goods and services tax. The move will save Ontario businesses $500-million in paperwork costs, Mr. Duncan said.

But it will also raise the price of many goods and services, including essentials such as gasoline, home heating oil, newspapers and coffee, said New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath.

Harmonizing the taxes will add to “the burden of average families who need help the most and give that money to those that need help the least,” she said.

To cushion the blow of the tax changes, the federal government is providing the province with $4.3-billion in transitional funding over three years. Ontario will use the money to cut cheques totalling $1,000 to every family in the province that earns less than $160,000. Individuals who earn less than $80,000 will get $300.

This is certainly a risk. The broken promise on health care premiums was a giant target that John Tory failed to hit last election campaign – McGuinty has now drawn a giant target for the next Tory leader shoot at in 2011.

You can be sure that the “tax on everything” attack that buried Stephane Dion will be heard loud and clear across Ontario over the next two and a half years. But before we all pile on McGuinty for doing something which may turn out to be hugely unpopular, it is important to keep in mind the big difference between this and the Green Shift – primarily, that McGuinty is in power. A great policy that is politically toxic is useless to an opposition party because it will never see the light of day. A great policy that is politically toxic at least serves the greater good if it’s brought in by a government in power. After all, being in power is about bringing forward positive change – not just running for re-election.

So this raises two distinct questions:

1. Is this a great policy?
2. Is it politically toxic?

On the first question, most would tend to agree this is the right thing to do from an economic perspective (yeah, yeah, it's the National Post, but still...). And with counterbalancing measures, exemptions, and rebates in place, it likely won’t be too punitive on Ontario’s poor. It’s not the thing legacies are built on, but it’s solid policy.

As for its' toxicity? Well, anytime you mess around with tax shifting, there are risks. But, as the teaser said, McGuinty’s secret weapon in all of this may be his old foe, Jim Flaherty. McGuinty is doing exactly what Flaherty has asked for and, one presumes, the Finance Minister will be quite supportive of this. That certainly puts Flaherty's wife - and PC leadership candidate - Christine Elliott in a bind but, either way, it should provide McGuinty with some cover on this one. He'll still be vulnerable on the left, but with the federal Tories and most business groups onside, his rank flank should hold up.

Don't get me wrong - McGuinty will take a hit on this one. But, I don't think it will be a fatal one.

Opportunity Knocks

The only knock I've had against Dalton McGuinty in the past is that he's been very risk-averse and has never really seemed to take full advantage of his time in power to bring about real change. He's run the province well, but if Dalton were a font...well, I have no clue what font he'd be, but he wouldn't be bold.

Tomorrow's budget will probably be the best opportunity he ever gets to put his stamp on the province and to leave a legacy. The word of the year is "stimulus", which means governments have been given a green light to spend to their hearts content, without worrying about balanced deficits or balanced budgets. So the money is there to do whatever he wants.

On top of that, with the PCs in leadership mode, there's no opposition leader to take him to task or to critique him. So there's likely to be little political fall-out.

He has the resources and political cover to be bold. I'll be very curious to see what he does with this opportunity.