Friday, September 19, 2008

Seat Projections

For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections

With three companies running daily tracking polls, there's a lot more data available, which has decreased some of the variance in my projection model.

I've also tweaked the system slightly by weighting the Ekos polls less - with the demon dialing, the're getting much larger samples than the other companies and were dominating the model.

No other changes in methodology from last week, so without further adieu, here is where things sit. Again, as a disclaimer, these results are only as good as the publicly released polls and makes no effort to project where things will be at on October 14th.

Simulation Totals



  • There's a few things I think your model can't take into account, and they're pretty big. GOTV may be the killer for the Libs and I base that on my personal observations, and that of others, on on indicator of ground support: Signs.

    Can you believe this? I commute for the far eastern suburbs of Vancouver to the downtown area daily and I have not seen 1(one) single Liberal sign. Not. One. Others have commented on a similar dearth of signage in Ontario and Quebec. This may be that cliche canary smelling some stinky gas in a certain coal mine of an election.

    By Blogger The Rat, at 11:01 a.m.  

  • Interesting. I find the Quebec results fascinating seeing as the Liberals would gain as many seats as the Conservatives in the province. (Not that I want to complain about any media narrative but you'd never believe that if you read the papers or listen to Chantal Hebert, I'm still in awe at her article this morning.)

    I guess the Liberals benefit from the falling Bloc support in Montreal.

    I also can't believe that Alberta isn't at 100% Conservative.... I wonder what the conditions are for that 1 in 1000 chance of the Liberals winning a seat.

    By Blogger Bailey, at 11:19 a.m.  

  • Any chance you could give us the variances on those distributions?

    By Blogger Steve Myers, at 12:06 p.m.  

  • Ignore the last comment, I just saw the CI's are posted. Apparently I'm blind.

    By Blogger Steve Myers, at 12:08 p.m.  

  • Bad for dion. But, we alreday knew that.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:28 p.m.  

  • Not that bad for Dion. 98 is a lot bigger than 2 ...

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 2:43 p.m.  

  • If the Tories win less seats than the Liberals in Quebec, I will buy a hat and eat it.

    By Blogger Anthony, at 3:53 p.m.  

  • Are you still using 1000 simulations? Why not ramp up to 10000 or more?

    By Blogger JG, at 4:49 p.m.  

  • One... million simulations.

    *pinky to mouth*

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:06 p.m.  

  • You can lower the Liberal count in Manitoba/Saskatchewan to 2 (Goodale & Neville). Simard's losing to the Tories and Keeper to the NDP. Can't see any potential pick ups.

    By Blogger The Hack, at 9:34 p.m.  

  • I feel that your Quebec projections are to low for the conservatives. Several polls have shown that the Tories are either tied or ahead of the BQ outside Montreal. If this is the result on election day that means that several ridings in the Eastern townships like Brome-Missisquoi,Compton-Stanstead, Richmond-Arthabaska and Shefford will fall to the Tories.

    The Quebec City area is a lock for the Tories and I think they will keep all the currect riding they have and add the ridings of Quebec and Montmorency-Charlevoix.

    The Sud du Saint-Laurent will also show some surprises on election day. ADQ leader Dumonts seat is within this region the the ADQ has a strong ground effort that will benefit the Tories.

    Add Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Saint-Maurice-Champlain and Trois-Rivières all are prime riding s for the tories to pick up.

    Also if the tory numbers hold in Quebec look for some surprises in the outer burbs of Montreal like Repentigny and Rivière-des-Mille-Îles.

    After the election the Tories could hold upto 30 seats in Quebec alone.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:05 a.m.  

  • Online vote-swapping legal but voter beware, Elections Canada warns
    Last Updated: Wednesday, September 17, 2008
    CBC News

    Canada's electoral watchdog has deemed online vote-swapping to be legal but warned that the scheme could be used to dupe voters into casting their ballot for certain parties.

    Elections Canada began looking into the issue after a Facebook group surfaced last week urging people living in ridings likely to have tight races to swap votes as a way to keep Stephen Harper's Conservatives from winning a majority.

    James Hale, a spokesman for the federal agency, said the act of encouraging someone to vote in a particular way is allowed under the Elections Act.

    It's also acceptable for people to invite voters to participate in an organized strategic voting plan, whether on the internet or through other means, he said.

    But, he said, "electors should be cautious for a couple of reasons."

    Voters could potentially be misled by someone acting under a false identity who tricks them into voting a particular way, which would be an offence under the Elections Act.

    Since people cast ballots alone in a voting booth, it is also difficult to verify whether they actually voted as promised.

    Also, the agency warned, it is illegal for money or "material benefit" to pass hands as part of a voting arrangement.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:01 a.m.  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:02 a.m.  

  • My guess is that there will be some more subregional splits made public later in the campaign (Nanos has already started doing them once a week and a few Quebec polls did them as well). Once they're more readily available I'll try to work them in.

    I think in Quebec, especially, that will make a big difference. If the NDP support is focused in Montreal and the Tory support is focused outside of Montreal, that should translate into better results for both those parties (since extrapoling CPC gains to Montreal if they're not up there is just wasted votes).

    I also seem to recall the Bloc polling higher than they got in reality the last few elections since their vote doesn't seem to show up as much on election day.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:59 p.m.  

  • C'mon Liberals. Let's not delude ourselves. The conservatives are laughing at us.

    We are on the verge of a disaster. Only the generosity of some voters in battleground ridings can save us and the Bloc.

    I cheer myself with this Rex Murphy insight. The CPC is a party with a strong leader and no team. The LPC is a party with a strong team and no leader. There is still a future for us. But, we may have to wait 5 years.

    Let's keep our fingers crossed.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 4:57 p.m.  

  • If the present trend continues Dionne will earn a place in history beside Kim Campbell. Could be one ugly election night with those at Liberal gatherings asking each other "We could have had Rae??"

    Will Iggy and Rae even still want the job if it is a rout?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:36 p.m.  

  • "Will Iggy and Rae even still want the job if it is a rout?"


    By Blogger JimTan, at 3:15 a.m.  

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