Happy Anniversary!

One year ago today, Stephen Harper turned an "unwanted election" into his first majority government, Jack Layton and the NDP soared to never before seen heights, and Liberals spent the evening curled up in a fetal position sobbing in the corner.

On political anniversaries, it's tempting to give each party a thumbs up or thumbs down, but the past year has been less clear cut, as the major parties try to figure out where they fit in Canada's new political dynamic.


The Conservatives

It feels like a "Harper majority" was hyped longer than the Phantom Menace – and the end result was just as much of a letdown. After years of being told by both the right and left that a Harper majority would mean an unrecognizable country, it turns out a Harper majority looks a lot like a Harper minority. I hardly think when people warned of his “hidden agenda”, abolishing the penny is what they had in mind.

So if the past year has proven anything, it’s that Stephen Harper has always been and always will be an incrementalist. He has made some changes - goodbye gun registry, so long Katimavik...CBC and Statscan, you can stay, but we’ll make your job a bit harder, in the hope the public begins to question your value. These are bigger changes than he made during the minority years, but the man isn’t reshaping Canada as we know it.

While none of those moves prompted a large backlash, there are storm clouds on the horizon. The F-35 fiasco could tarnish his reputation as a strong financial manager. A stagnant economy would speak directly against the ballot question he was elected on. Robocon could blow up in his face. Bev Oda is still in Cabinet, so that alone guarantees us a few hilarious screw ups.

Outlook: Harper survived year one of the majority unscathed, but he survived with Nicole Turmel as leader of the opposition. The next year will be harder than the last.


The NDP

The past 13 months have been the most turbulent in this “new” party’s long history, filled with highs, lows...and voting delays.

Jack Layton’s death was tragic, but life has gone on for the Dippers. Their leadership race may not have generated the excitement they hoped it would, but they came out of it with the only leader who has a realistic shot at ever living at 24 Sussex, so that’s a point in their column.

With the exception of a few easily forgotten floor crossings, their rookie caucus hasn’t been the embarrassment we thought it would be, so that’s another point for the boys in orange.

Outlook: Mulcair is in the midst of his leadership honeymoon, but he’s been treated to the kid gloves by the Conservatives so far. That’s going to change if Harper ever decides Mulcair is a legitimate threat.


The Liberals

On March 31st, Justin Trudeau knocked out Tory Senator Patrick Brazeau. There haven’t been many highlights over the other 365 days since election night.

That’s not to say Liberal rebuilding hasn’t gone on behind the scenes. The party picked a new president with a lot of good ideas. Today, the Liberals became Canada’s most open party by letting supporters register to vote for the leader. Liberals finally get that the party needs fixing, and I’ve been surprised at the number of new faces I’ve seen at events over the past year – people who joined the party after May 2nd, because they wanted to save it.

In front of the scenes, Rae has performed well in the interim leader’s role, but the “will he or won’t he” saga around his leadership has been a distraction.

Outlook: The next year will be all about leadership, as the Liberals pick the man or woman who will either oversee the party’s death or its return to relevance. No pressure, though.


The Bloc

Can’t say I miss them.

Worthy of Celebration

April 17, 2012: Constitutional ‘divisions’ keep Harper from celebrating Charter

January 23, 2011: Harper celebrates five years as PM

My 5 cents on the federal budget

For years the Liberals warned you of Stephen Harper's hidden agenda. Just wait until he gets a majority, and you won't recognize Canada.

For years, Conservatives quietly whispered to their base that they couldn't go as far as they wanted because of that damn minority government. The Liberals won't let us, the Senate won't let us!

So after waiting for nearly a decade, we finally got to see the long anticipated Harper majority budget. And what was the flagship change he needed a majority to bring in?

The elimination of the penny.

OK, so it wasn't exactly the "transformational" budget we'd long feared or hoped for, depending on our allegiances. But it does provide a good look at what kind of Prime Minister Stephen Harper truly wants to be.

This budget should tell us once and for all, that he's not a guy who wants to fundamentally change Canada. Sure, he's tossed a few symbolic gestures to the base, in the form of CBC budget cuts, the death of Katimavik, and a warning to environmental activists. But Harper remains the head of the biggest spending government in Canadian history, even after accounting for population growth and inflation.

The budget also shows us he's not hunting for a legacy, quite yet. There are some "big picture" reforms in this budget, but they're mostly fine tuning - a speedier immigration process, changes to the innovation agenda, pension reform. These are all worthy initiatives if they work, but they likely won't ever find their way into history textbooks. They're also the sort of things a Liberal government would do.

So, there you have the real Stephen Harper. A largely low key and pragmatic Prime Minister willing to toss symbolic gestures to his conservative base. A man whose greatest legacy at this point is the elimination of the penny.

Sixth Annual Politicians in Cowboy Hats

For a brief history of Stampede fashion, you can read the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 round-ups.

Although Rick Hansen served as Stampede Parade Grand Marshal, all eyes were on Will and Kate this year. I do find it somewhat perplexing how many of the same people who lambasted Ignatieff for his time outside of the country went absolutely ga-ga over our future head of state visiting us for the first time in years. If a 6-day cross-country tour isn't the definition of "Just Visiting", I don't know what is. That said...



OH MY GOD! Will and Kate looked absolutely dashing!!! So young! So thin! So beautiful! And they pulled off Western wear more perfectly than most people who have lived in Calgary their entire lives! Their outfits were, like, so simple, and yet so perfectly perfect. I hereby crown them "best dressed" of the 2011 Stampede - the king and queen of fashion.



This was Naheed Nenshi's first stampede as mayor, and I know many were worried how the man would look in western wear. After all, Dave Bronconnier left big cowboy boots to fill - the man looked the part of the Mayor of Calgary every Stampede, riding 'ol leroy down 9th Avenue. Nenshi meanwhile, went to Harvard, is a University Professor, and spends his spare time blogging about population density rates in new housing developments. And let's be honest, the man doesn't really look like John Wayne (neither the actor nor the serial killer).

However, Naheed hit it out of the park this year. His outfit is irrelevant - the man rode a horse in the parade, thereby making him a Stampede All-Star.

With Stampede a success, the big question now turns to what he'll wear for pride.


FEDERAL POLITICIANS

Usually it's the federal politicians who make the biggest splash at the Stampede - for better or worse. After all, Liberal academics, socialists from Toronto, and environmental crusaders don't tend to have a large collection of denim in their closets. Heck, even the "Alberta boy" himself, Stephen Harper, committed the biggest gaffe in Stampede history.

But this year? Everyone's tired out from the election. Jack Layton needs to spend time with Quebec. The Liberal leadership contest hasn't reached the point where candidates need to parade in cowboy hats to court Calgary Liberals.

Stephen Harper did give a speech about how invincible he is (which always ends well in westerns...), but his stylist really earns her money come the second week of July every year, so the PM once again looked fine.



"Here's a pancake. You'll get your eggs once Canada is out of deficit in 2015."


PROVINCIAL POLITICS

In comparison, provincial politics are rockin' this summer with an election on the horizon, and the PCs and Liberals both in the midst of leadership contests. As always, the media was all abuzz about the chosen one, Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith.



And 5,000 came to the Stampede breakfast, but there were only 5 pancakes and 2 sausages. So Danielle Smith said "bring them to me" and she placed her hands over them. She broke the pancakes and gave them to Prime Minister Harper, telling him to distribute them to the multitudes. Lo and behold, they were all fed, with stacks of pancakes left over. And so the legend of Danielle Smith grew.


PC LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES

The Stampede may be the most important event of the entire PC leadership race. After all, it gives candidates a dozen socials a day to press the flesh in Alberta's largest city. As such, the contenders have all no doubt held countless strategy meetings and focus groups to find that outfit that says "I'm an Albertan, I enjoy a good rodeo, but I don't look like a member of the Village People when wearing a cowboy hat".

So as a public service, I've taken it upon myself to rank the PC leadership contenders choice of western wear.


1. Rick Orman



Winning the "Calgary Grit Best Dressed" trophy will likely be the highlight of the leadership race for Orman, so I hope he savours this. While Orman's outfit isn't Jim Prentice-good by any means, it's the best of a rather uninspiring field. And he gets bonus marks for the 3 cute children in western wear. After all, in politics, nothing beats cute children.


2. Alison Redford



Redford has a bit of a "female Harry Chase" look going on. I know that doesn't sound like a compliment, but it really is, since I consider Chase a stampede fashion superstar.


3. Ted "The Man" Morton



Here's what I said about Ted when I voted him "worst dressed" last year:

Once again, Ted is just trying to hard. When he ran for leadership, he drafted a catchy little country music jingle. He holds "golf and gun" fundraisers. But, really, he's just a university professor from the big city trying to pass himself off as a good 'ol country boy. And, in this case, it shows.

Morton has improved this year, though I'd probably only give the prof a "C-" grade, and the vest above leaves a lot to be desired. However, in browsing the 7 Stampede Breakfast photo-albums on his Facebook page, I did notice he mixed it up and owns at least 2 different cowboy hats, so I'll give him marks for effort.


4. Gary Mar



Here, PC leadership candidate Gary Mar poses with the winner of the Gary Mar lookalike contest.

While I recognize orange is a hot colour politically these days, I'm just not feeling it. I mean, seriously, have you ever seen Clint Eastwood wearing orange?


5. Doug Griffiths



Mercifully, Ed Stelmach no longer wears suit jackets to the Alberta Stampede, but his habit appears to have rubbed off on a few of his MLAs. Quite simply, it's just something you don't do.


6. Doug Horner



Like Griffiths, Horner dons the suit. What knocks him down to the "worst dressed" spot on this list is the cup of Starbucks in his left hand. Quite simply, cowboys do not drink Starbucks.

It appears Yvonne Fritz is equally aghast.

One-on-One

Peter Mansbridge talks coalitions with Michael Ignatieff in studio, talks coalitions with Jack Layton on the campaign trail, and talks coalitions with Stephen Harper in an empty hockey rink.

All three do a good job getting their message out, but Layton clearly made the best choice in terms of format. Viewers get to see the energy of the campaign trail, and his interview comes across as a quasi NDP infomercial at times.

Pictures from the Campaign Trail

Last night, I posted pictures of Michael Ignatieff humanizing himself to voters. After all, what voters look for in a Prime Minister is someone who knows how to eat a hot dog.

Today, a look at how Stephen Harper has spent the first dozen days of the campaign.

Harper plays piano with a little girl. I know what you're thinking, but there's no need to worry for his safety - she has never met Michael Ignatieff.

You can still win a free coffee with "roll up the rim"...but from now on, you will be unable to claim it until Canada is out of deficit in 2015.

Afterwards, Stephen Harper thanked the Maple Leafs for not plunging Toronto into an unecesary and unwanted playoff campaign, which would have risked Canada's economic recovery.

Harper thanks the Tory war room staffers for their hard work.

Even Stephen Harper has started playing the coalition drinking game!

Harper, fed up with media questions, decides to solve the problem.

Stephen Harper announces a tax break for silly photo ops.

Flying into Stephen Harper international airport

Even though most of the champagne and reflection flowed on the 5th anniversary of his 2006 election night win, it was five years ago tomorrow that Stephen Harper was sworn in as Prime Minister.

But today might be the more interesting milestone. Assuming he doesn't quit to go form his own rock band by the end of the day, Harper will pass Lester B. Pearson to become the 11th longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history. I'm not sure Harper's legacy will ever be as great as Pearson's - after all, you don't get airports named after you for cutting the GST 2 points. But, still, it's worth noting.

In another 78 days, Harper will pass fellow Calgarian RB Bennett for 10th place on the all-time list. If he lasts another year, he'll move ahead of Dief to become the fourth longest serving conservative Prime Minister and the longest serving westerner (well, Etobicoke-born westerner).

Celebrating longevity without accomplishment is a bit hollow, but it's still a lot more than we expected out of him. Remember 6, 7, 8 years ago? It was impossible to say "Prime Minister Stephen Harper" without laughing.

And now? He's lasted longer than Mike Pearson. Not bad.

2010 in Pictures: Hello Sports Fans

2010 in Pictures: Stephen Harper Plays Rock Band

I won't get that majority 'till the day I die

Finally an explanation for Harper's anemic legislative agenda - he's been practicing.

PC Glee

From the Alberta PC convention this weekend, a musical talent show that's just beging for someone to edit in some Simon Cowell quips. It's absolutely horrifying, but it's still worth at least skipping ahead to the 10:30 mark to see Ted Morton and Dave Hancock's duet of Kumbaya.



After watching that, I'm all the more impressed with the following:

This will make for an interesting chapter in his hockey book

“Canadians are being forced to subsidize millionaire hockey team owners and that’s a misconduct."
-Stephen Harper, 2000

"Errr...."
-Stephen Harper, today



Off the top, let me say that I'm not dead set against the idea of the government playing a role in the return of the Nordiques. I'm a sports fan, and the first website I ever made up was a tacky little "Save the Expos" tripod thing - I get what it's like to lose a team. So if we were talking about a loan or investing a few million dollars to get the Nords back, I think the payoff would be worth it.

But the proposal on the table is for $185 million, and it comes with no guarantees of a team. Gary Bettman has blocked several attempts to move teams north and likely would again.

It simply isn't a good investment and it's no secret the only reason Harper is even considering it is to save his Quebec City MPs. Choosing politics over policy isn't anything new for Harper, but I'm not even sure this is good politics. Consider the ramifications.

Money for Quebec City could rekindle memories of Mulroney's CF-18 deal in Winnipeg. In Alberta, where the Flames and Oilers are looking for new arenas, the editorialists are already describing this move as "almost Liberal in its optics". That's about the worst insult the Calgary Herald can dish out. And if Roughriders fans are willing to drive hundreds of miles, paint themselves green, and wear watermelons on their heads in support of their team, surely they might be willing to change their vote if the Tories choose Quebec over Regina.

Then, what do you do with Hamilton (and the many swing seats in the region), if they get a team? Does Balsillie get the same housewarming gift as Peladeau? And, as the joke goes, if Hamilton gets an NHL team, we can be sure Toronto will want one too.

Given all this, we should not be surprised to see many Conservatives skating gingerly. Maxime Bernier has broken ranks, though that's not a huge surprise - the man breaks ranks with the Conservatives over decisions on what to serve for dinner at their caucus retreat. More concerning for Harper are the "anonymous" western MPs voicing their displeasure.

I can understand the alure of the Quebec City swing seats. But this is a government that has been bodychecked on massive deficits, G20 spending, and an expensive jet contract. If Harper's plan is to run on his credibility as a sound financial manager, then he's skating on thin ice.

And while it's tempting to end this post with the "thin ice" line, I do have to add that it's positively baffling the Liberals haven't given more than a shoulder shrug on this one. They have nothing in Quebec City to lose but their deposits - hell, I'd imagine there are at least a few Quebec City residents who'd rather their tax dollars go to childcare than Karl Peladeau. The Liberals were burned on this issue in 2000 and they've been handed a golden opportunity for payback. As they say - if you've got a clear shot, take it.

End of Summer News Bits

1. Bloc MP Carole Lavallée is upset with Stephen Harper:

La députée bloquiste Carole Lavallée juge inacceptable que le premier ministre Stephen Harper ait écrit aux élèves du pays afin de les encourager à visiter les parcs nationaux.

Dans cette lettre expédiée en mai aux élèves de deuxième secondaire au Québec et de huitième année dans le reste du pays, M.Harper rappelle que le gouvernement fédéral offre un laissez-passer valide pour 12 mois permettant de visiter gratuitement les parcs nationaux et les lieux historiques gérés par Parcs Canada.

«Allez explorer nos montagnes, nos forêts, nos champs de bataille, nos forts, nos campings et plus encore», écrit M.Harper.

«En tant que Canadiens, nous avons la chance de vivre dans un pays qui a une riche histoire et une véritable beauté naturelle. Ce laissez-passer vous permet d'en apprendre plus sur l'histoire et la nature que partagent tous les Canadiens. En tant que futurs leaders, vous tenez le Canada entre vos mains. Le meilleur moyen de vous préparer à diriger est d'en savoir le plus possible sur ce grand pays qui est le nôtre. Profitez-en bien?!»

Of all the grievances I have with Stephen Harper, I must confess that encouraging High School students to visit National Parks is fairly low on my list...


2. Jack Layton's decision to hold a free vote on Bill C-391 likely means the death of the long gun registry. Again, there are probably worse things to complain about than a leader letting his MPs vote their conscience, but Layton and his urban MPs will wear this one.

As they should.

Layton has taken delight in mocking the "Liberal-Conservative coalition" and exploiting divisions in the Liberal caucus at every opportunity. On social issues, on foreign policy - how many times have we seen an NDP bill designed to split the Liberal caucus down the middle?

Each time, Layton called it a lack of leadership on the part of the Liberal leader. So if Jack is going to let a program he supports die, a program which was just called "cost effective and efficient" in an RCMP report - well, he deserves to shoulder the blame.


3. We likely won't have a fall election, but a 4 riding mini-election could give the political junkies out there their fix.

Stephen Harper: He Prorogues

I was at the Victory Fund fundraiser last night in Toronto. I thought Ignatieff was better than he's been at past events and he tantalizingly teased us that there would be concrete policy coming from the Liberals shortly.

However, the highlight of the night was the Piano Man, Bob Rae, who regaled everyone with "you are my sunshine", "Auld Lang Syne", and his own version of "Let It Be". Here's the video, courtesy of Jeff:



Anonymous Liberal senior strategist strategizers I talked to after the performance generally placed Rae's talent on par with Harper's, although one party insider felt Harper had a better singing voice. Still, most were willing to give Bob the edge on creativity, while conceding Harper chutzpah points for the venue choice.

So let's put it to a vote. After watching both videos, who deserves the title of Political Piano Man?

Who is the Piano Man?
	Bob Rae
	Stephen Harper
pollcode.com free polls

Moment of the Decade: #1 The Merger

If you missed it, I asked readers to nominate, then vote, on Canada's top political moment of the decade. Over the first two weeks of January, I've been counting down the top 10 vote getters. Today, the political moment of the decade:



The right wing merger didn’t get a lot of Canadians excited. There weren’t protests in the streets. Canadians outside the Ottawa bubble may not have even been aware it was going on. If they did, few immediately recognized it as the game changer that it was – after all, right wing parties in Canada changed their name and their leaders every few years. And it seemed unlikely they would even change their leader this time.

So former future Prime Minister Bernard Lord and a slew of other high profile candidates yawned and took a pass, letting Stephen Harper walk over Belinda “Bake a Bigger Economic Pie” Stronach and Tony “Never Get Tired of Losing” Clement. Most assumed Stephen Harper could never become Prime Minister – hell, he was the Canadian Alliance leader. And he was from Calgary. We all knew Ontarians would never vote for him. The thought of Quebecers doing that was laughable.

Because, after all, the Alberta firewall guy was up against the Paul Martin juggernaut. One of Martin’s top Alberta organizers was going around the 2003 leadership convention telling everyone that, merger or no merger, the Liberals were going to win 9 seats in Alberta next election. I still have my Paulberta t-shirt, as an ironic keepsake. Everyone just knew Paul Martin was going to win 200 seats. It turns out he barely did…it just took him 2 elections to do it.

So it’s fair to say the merger didn’t really grip the nation the same way the coalition or the Stronach floor crossing did. Sure, we enjoyed watching David Orchard and Joe Clark huff and puff. Scott Brison joining the Liberals was kind of interesting, but all it did was reinforce the feeling that a Martin landslide was inevitable. Let’s face it, this wasn’t political theater of the highest caliber.

But in retrospect, it proved to be one of the most important events of the decade. Because, to pick a moment of the decade, you really need to think about what the decade was all about.

The story of the 90s was the Liberals balancing the financial and national unity books. The story of the 80s was Brian Mulroney's rise to power and what he did there. For the 00s, the overarching political narrative was the fall of the Liberals and the rise of Stephen Harper. The event that made it all possible was the merger.

And that, is why I suspect it was voted the political moment of the decade.


You can see the full results here. Thanks to everyone who voted - I had a lot of fun with this one, and I must say the final list is very close to the top 10 list I'd have produced if I did this myself.

#10: Paul Martin is Quit-Fired
#9: Dions Wins LPC Leadership
#8: The Clarity Act
#7: The 2006 Federal Election
#6: Confidence Vote Mayhem
#5: Adscam
#4: Same Sex Marriage Legalized
#3: No to Iraq
#2: The Coalition Crisis
#1: The Merger

Moment of the Decade: #2 The Coalition

If you missed it, I asked readers to nominate, then vote, on Canada's top political moment of the decade. Over the first two weeks of January, I'm counting down the top 10 vote getters. Tomorrow, I reveal the complete voting results and the number one moment of the decade.




If nothing else, it made Canadians pay attention to politics.

Over the past year, people had complained about how dull our politics were – the Americans had just gone through a thrilling election whereas you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who could tell you anything memorable about our election that had happened around the same time. There’d been something about sweater vests and puffins, but nothing had really happened, and nothing had really changed.

Then, for a fortnight in December, everyone paid attention. And I mean everyone. That Christmas, friends and family who couldn’t name their local MP didn’t want to talk to me about anything except the coalition. And they all had an opinion. Someone had committed an affront to democracy – just who had committed what affront depended on who you asked. Those dastardly Liberals were going to use the separatists to steal an election! That bully Stephen Harper was using an economic crisis to play petty politics!

In one of my favourite political memories, I bundled up on a cold Toronto Saturday and visited a pair of competing rallies, both accusing opposites side of subverting democracy. At one rally, the coalition was described as “the saddest moment in the history of Canada” and a “coup”. At the other, Jack Layton talked about how Stephen Harper had “taken away your right to vote”.




Looking back, it’s actually easy to see how it all happened. The Liberals were weak and Harper went for the jugular. The opposition fought back with the only weapon they had. So Harper backed down. But this was the only chance Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton would ever have at power so they kept punching. So Harper used the only weapon he had and prorogued. Then Michael Ignatieff saw an opportunity to skip the unpleasantness of a leadership race and he took it.

It was wild, it was exciting, but even with emotions higher than they’d ever been, it really wasn’t anything more than a bunch of politicians behaving completely rationally, like basic game theory would expect them to. One by one, they saw an opportunity for power and they took it. Even though we faulted them at the time, can you really blame politicians for doing what politicians do?