Taste of Victory on the Danforth

There's a lot of talk today about the eventual by election for Jack Layton's Toronto-Danforth seat. Many Liberals are salivating at the prospect of a victory there which would pull them within a mere 67 seats of official opposition status:

Liberals hope to paint Layton’s Toronto riding red again

Liberal Party president Alfred Apps is counting out Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, predicting a two-way fight with the NDP for Jack Layton’s Toronto seat.

Mr. Apps, a Bay Street lawyer who knows the Toronto political landscape well, told The Globe Wednesday that Mr. Layton won the seat because of his “terrific municipal background and powerful personality.”

He added: “Jack actually won it on the strength of his personal reputation and charisma.”

Given that by elections are all about expectations, I certainly wouldn't be advising Alf Apps, or anyone else, to raise expectations of a Liberal win on the Danforth. But it's still likely worth examining just how probable a Liberal pick-up actually is.

For starters, we need to accept that anything can happen in a by election. In Kevin Lamoureux's Winnipeg North by election upset last year, NDP support fell from 62% to 41% while Liberal support jumped from 12% to 46%. So at least in theory, Jack Layton's 43-point victory in May is not an insurmountable hill to climb.

But that's still a mighty tall hill, which only looks taller when you take a proper scan of the landscape. As the map at the top of this post shows, the two ridings to the East of it fell to the NDP in May. A relative no-name, Matthew Kellway, beat a 6-term incumbent in the Beaches by 11 points. That's nothing to sneeze at.

The riding has gone NDP provincially the previous four elections - most recently by 6,500 votes. Yes, Peter Tabuns is a popular incumbent, but there are a lot of people in the riding who are used to voting orange, even when Jack's name isn't on the ballot.

Finally, it's a riding that, demographically, "should" be an NDP seat. When I put the Census demographics into the regression meat grinder, it comes out as the 16th strongest NDP seat in the country.

Add it all up, and the odds of an upset on the Danforth are exceedingly small. Raising hopes to the contrary is only setting Liberals up for disappointment.

Report to the LPC Membership...

...by ALF APPS. As posted on Facebook earlier today:

REPORT TO THE MEMBERSHIP

from the NATIONAL PRESIDENT of the LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA
June 3, 2011

FELLOW LIBERALS:

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT TO YOU ON THE RECENT ACTIVITIES OF YOUR NATIONAL BOARD AT THIS EXTREMELY CRITICAL MOMENT IN OUR PARTY’S HISTORY.

EXACTLY ONE MONTH AGO, ON THE MORNING OF MAY 3RD, LIBERALS ACROSS CANADA AWOKE TO DEAL WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WORST ELECTION DEFEAT IN OUR HISTORY – INCLUDING THE DEFEAT OF OUR LEADER IN HIS OWN RIDING.

THAT VERY DAY, MICHAEL IGNATIEFF ANNOUNCED THAT HE WOULD BE STEPPING DOWN AS LEADER.

HIS ANNOUNCEMENT, TOGETHER WITH A FORMAL LETTER THAT FOLLOWED CONFIRMING HIS RESIGNATION, IRREVOCABLY SET SOME EVENTS IN MOTION UNDER OUR CONSTITUTION.

FOR GOOD OR ILL, THE NATIONAL BOARD IS CURRENTLY THE SUPREME AUTHORITY OF OUR PARTY BETWEEN CONVENTIONS. IT IS A BODY WHICH CONSISTS OF THE ELECTED OFFICERS OF THE PARTY NATIONALLY AND FROM EVERY PROVINCE AND TERRITORY ACROSS THE COUNTRY, FROM ALL FOUR OF OUR PARTY COMMISSIONS AND FROM THE CAUCUS.

[snip]

I HAVE CONVENED A MEETING OF THE NATIONAL BOARD FOR JULY 9, 2011, AT WHICH TIME, WORKING CLOSELY WITH OUR INTERIM LEADER AND CAUCUS, WE WILL ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING KEY CHALLENGES:

1. A PROCESS FOR CONDUCTING A NATIONAL ELECTION POST-MORTEM ENGAGING CAUCUS, CAMPAIGN PERSONNEL, DEFEATED CANDIDATES, PARTY OFFICERS AND OTHER LIBERALS;

2. THE NEAR-TERM FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL RESTRUCTURING OF THE PARTY REQUIRED DUE TO OUR REDUCED STANDING IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS AND IN RESPONSE TO THE REDUCTION IN OUR PUBLIC SUBSIDY AS A RESULT OF OUR LOWER VOTE TOTALS IN THE LAST ELECTION AND THE IMMINENT REDUCTION AND LOSS OF THE PER VOTER SUBSIDY ON ACCOUNT OF THE PENDING BUDGET;

3. THE PROCESS THROUGH WHICH LIBERALS THROUGHOUT CANADA CAN BE ENGAGED IN A FUNDAMENTAL RE-IMAGINING OF THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF THE LIBERAL PARTY, INCLUDING ITS CORE VALUES AND BELIEFS, THEIR APPLICABILITY IN OUR EVOLVING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE AND, MOST IMPORTANTLY, MODERN METHODS THROUGH WHICH ORDINARY CITIZENS CAN BE BROUGHT TO A DEEPER LEVEL OF ENGAGEMENT AND COMMITMENT TO ITS MISSION;

4. A PROGRAMME FOR BUILDING UP OUR MEMBERSHIP AND FUNDRAISING BASE OVER THE BALANCE OF THE COMING YEAR;

5. THE PROCESS PURSUANT TO WHICH RANK AND FILE LIBERALS WILL BE ENGAGED IN DEVELOPING, CONSIDERING AND PRIORITIZING POLICY AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM RESOLUTIONS FOR DEBATE AND DETERMINATION AT THE UPCOMING BIENNIAL CONVENTION; AND

6. PLANNING FOR THE NEXT BIENNIAL CONVENTION ITSELF.

WE HAVE TO WORK HARDER AND FASTER THAN EVER TO BUILD UP OUR MEMBERSHIP AND OUR WAR-CHEST, BUT THE SILVER LINING OF OUR RECENT DEFEAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A COMPLETELY FRESH START AND FOR GENUINE CHANGE IN HOW OUR PARTY WORKS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT TIME NOT ONLY TO UNDERTAKE OUR IMPORTANT WORK OF REBUILDING, RENEWAL AND REFORM WITH DUE CONSIDERATION AND CARE, BUT ALSO TO ENGAGE LIBERALS EVERYWHERE IN THAT PROCESS.

OVER THE COMING MONTHS, YOUR NATIONAL BOARD LOOKS FORWARD TO RECEIVING YOUR INPUT ON THESE AND OTHER QUESTIONS AS WE MOVE FORWARD TO BUILD A BETTER AND STRONGER LIBERAL PARTY FOR THE YEARS TO COME.

SINCERELY,

ALFRED APPS