Friday, June 04, 2010

In Favour of a Merger

Last week, I posted about why a Liberal-NDP merger is unlikely to work.

However, after listening to the arguments of many Liberals over the past week, I have come a new conclusion. I now support a merger.

A merger between the Liberal and the Conservative parties.

I know many of you will laugh, but let's look at this analytically. The main argument being advanced in favour of a Liberal-NDP merger or coalition is that we need to get back into power. Well, a Liberal-Conservative merger is the quickest road back to power. While the math isn't there for a "Liberal-Democrat" win, even if half of all Liberal voters jumped to the NDP, the Liberal-Conservatives would still win 207 seats.

And that number is likely a conservative estimate (so to speak). After all, the Liberal Party has voted with the Conservatives more often than with the NDP in recent years. Their MPs have been largely interchangeable: Belinda Stronach, Scott Brison and Keith Martin left the Tories for the Liberals; David Emerson, Joe Comuzzi, and Wajid Khan walked the other way. When was the last time a Liberal MP joined the NDP caucus?

And, while there is no history to justify a Liberal-NDP merger, there was once upon a time a Liberal-Conservative Party in Canada, led by John A. MacDonald.

Believe me, I too see how bleak the future looks for the Liberals. After all, we have been out of power for four years, while Harper sits with a towering 34% in the polls. I cannot imagine a more hopeless situation.

A merger is the only way out. And since the only way to power is by merging with the Conservatives, I urge my fellow Liberals to look there, rather than to the NDP. This would not be a coalition of the losers! We would not need Bloc Quebecois support!

We would no longer have to worry about the Tories running negative ads against our leader - as he would be their leader! We would become competitive in Western Canada! We would govern for a century!

My fellow Liberals, I urge you to join me in supporting this exciting proposal.

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75 Comments:

  • Exciting? Seems pretty modest to me.

    By Blogger Don, at 9:14 AM  

  • The scary part is that although there would be very little support among the rank and file, there are those in the party establishment who might be open to that idea. Scary indeed.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:14 AM  

  • This is getting embarrassing. We are the Liberal Party. The party that Canada has turned to repeatedly throughout its history. Right now, we have a leader that has the potential to be one of the great ones of all time, and yet the rank and file sit around mulling over ridiculous concepts. Folks, get a grip

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:40 AM  

  • You're adorable - I hope those new haircuts do you justice.

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 10:04 AM  

  • This might be one of the stupidest blog posts i've ever read.
    What is everyone afraid of?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:06 AM  

  • I thought you were serious about this, right until you declared that the leader of the Liberal Party would be the leader of the combined party. What a farce!

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:06 AM  

  • I know you meant it as a joke, but it does not seem unreasonable to me.

    By Blogger Greg, at 10:35 AM  

  • Paul, next time you blog another tired lament about how women just don't like or you, try this on for size: maybe you're a dink with no sense of humour!

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 11:33 AM  

  • I know it was a joke, but I would vote for the Tory-Liberal coalition (John Manley should be its leader - maybe not right away, but eventually). Actually, it would be preferable to a Tory majority (for me), since it would probably marginalize social conservatives and the big government left.

    Incidentally, there is a more recent example of a Liberal-Conservative coalition. In 1917 Borden led a unionist coalition of some Tories and some Liberals to power with a massive majority (despite winning only 3 seats in Quebec).

    This might be easier if the two wings of the Liberal party split into separate parties - the Turner-Martin-Ignatieff wing being natural coalition partners for the Tories, while the Trudeau-Chretien-Dion wing could partner with the NDP.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:34 AM  

  • Some european countries have gone with "gran coalitions" - if Canada ever shifted to PR, it's not outside the realm of possibility.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:39 AM  

  • Joke or not, just watch Harper extend his hand to the Liberals after the election (where I'm betting he still wins the most seats) to "join him in coalition to give Canadians the stable government they deserve".

    Can't happen? How else would Harper retain his grip on power after failing again to get a majority?

    Harper favours power over principle we know that.

    So then the question is, would Liberals consider sitting alongside ministers who they've decried as bullies, incompetents and "not worthy" of holding the positions they do? Or if Harper resigned working under a Jason Kenney or Maxime Bernier led government?

    Anyone who thinks Harper wouldn't make the offer after the votes have come in hasn't been paying attention.

    Whether the Liberals would accept, well I'd like to think no, that principle towers over power (you can't say the government is evil, taking us back to the stone age, Harper is the worst PM in history, and so on and then JOIN them!), but we'll see.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:39 AM  

  • One thing is true in just about all political coalitions and mergers. The bigger party (in this case the Conservatives in a Lib-Con merger and the Liberals in a Lib-NDP merger) ALWAYS dominates the smaller one.
    After the Rae-Peterson accord, Liberals won a majority (Rae won one afterward, but now the NDP are dead in Ontario for generations while the Libs are back in power).
    In Germany when we saw the Social Democrats form a "grand coalition" with the Merkel's Conservatives (who had a few more seats), what happened? Social Democrats tanked in the next election and Merkel got to govern with a much more right-wing coalition (with the Social Democrats).

    And of course the CPC more resembles the Alliance than the PC party of old, just compare where Mulroney stood on social issues and foreign policy compared to this party.

    Just look at the Liberal-NDP aborted coalition attempt. Their accord was essentially the Liberal platform minus the Green Shift (which Liberals had already abandoned), there were ZERO policy concessions to the NDP.



    A merged NDP-Liberal party or a Liberal-NDP coalition would essentially be the Liberal Party, I can't imagine it would advocate positions anything more than a tad left of previous Liberal platforms.

    Do you really believe otherwise Dan? On what basis?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:50 AM  

  • Brilliant idea Dan, I am behind you 100%

    tGPOitHotU

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:02 PM  

  • Come to the Dark Side, we have cookies.

    -V

    By Blogger The Rat, at 12:03 PM  

  • It was only a couple of years ago Liberals were talking about the 308strategy, being competitive in every riding and taking the fight national. Now the Liberals are curling up into a ball and whimpering, mainly because the guys at Power Corp don't like Ignatieff.
    The NDP should be moving in for the kill on such a collection of wimps, not merging with them.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 12:05 PM  

  • LOL... love it man.

    By Blogger Christian Conservative, at 12:09 PM  

  • We're behind you, Grit! Somehow though I imagine if Iggy became leader of this two-headed abomination, we'd still be down in the polls.

    By Blogger Volkov, at 12:35 PM  

  • Passes joint to Calgary Grit ... "here, take another hit, dude"

    By Anonymous Sean Cummings, at 12:38 PM  

  • Great post Dan! It's Rick Mercer fodder.

    I think a Bloc-Liberal merger is the answer. Sort of a one-size-fits-all party to sew up Quebec.

    By Blogger Joanne (True Blue), at 12:56 PM  

  • Call the new party the 'Progressive Conservatives' and I'm in!!!

    By Blogger Tof KW, at 1:28 PM  

  • A merged NDP-Liberal party or a Liberal-NDP coalition would essentially be the Liberal Party, I can't imagine it would advocate positions anything more than a tad left of previous Liberal platforms.

    Presumably, a Liberal-NDP party would have 1/3 of its MPs as New Democrats.

    It would be fishing for 1/3 of its votes from existing New Democrats (actually, above this, if you look at where the polls are - more like 2/5).

    Looking at fundraising dollars, about 1/3 of its revenue would come from New Democrats.

    I don't know membership numbers off hand, but I suspect 1/3 of its members would be dippers.

    So, yeah, I'd say the NDP would have some say in the party and its policies. If not, then the NDP would never agree to a merger or to a coalition.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:29 PM  

  • And yes, this post is obviously a joke, but logically, I don't think a Liberal-Conservative coalition/merger makes any less sense than a Liberal-NDP one.

    I encourage any of the pro-merger Liberals to give me a serious argument of why it isn't.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:31 PM  

  • Dan - Your proposal may be the only way to get a majority government these days.

    By Blogger Joanne (True Blue), at 2:08 PM  

  • I don't think a Liberal-Conservative coalition/merger makes any less sense than a Liberal-NDP one.

    Yes - it's funny because it's TRUE !

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 3:22 PM  

  • Are there pro-merger Liberals? I just thought some were hoping Iggy wouldn't close the door ahead of time, that's all. I must have missed something.

    By Blogger Eugene Forsey Liberal, at 3:26 PM  

  • I hear there's a poll out showing that a Bob Rae led Liberal-Conservative party would outperform a Stephen Harper led Liberal-Conservative party.

    By Anonymous Deb, at 3:49 PM  

  • Eugene -

    http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100601/politics-coalition-100601/20100601/?hub=TorontoNewHome

    The president of the Young Liberals has called on Canadian progressive parties to unite to defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

    Samuel Lavoie told The Globe and Mail that he supports a merger of left-wing federal parties, meaning the Liberals and the NDP, but not the Bloc Quebecois.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:52 PM  

  • That said, I don't think a lot of people are seriously talking about mergers or consider it likely. More along the lines of "non agression pacts", "coalitions", etc...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:52 PM  

  • Dan,

    I agree that a merger either way makes as much sense as the other, simply because a significant portion of current liberal voters (if not party members) would move in the opposite direction of the proposed union.

    IMO (humble, very unscientific and totally off the top of my head), very roughly, about 25-35% of the party would go Con or neutral rather than follow a Lib-Dip coalition, and about 35-50% would go Dip/Green/Indy rather than participate a Lib-Con merger. In the end, there would be very close to a 50-50 electoral split between two polarized/polarizing parties.

    Personally, I'd rather not see it happen, as I think it would be an abandonment of the traditional centre. I've always thought the the principle benefit of the existence of NDP and Conservative parties was that it kept the loonies out of the Liberals (although we still had our share! :) ). But, hey, that's just one guy's opinion...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:53 PM  

  • And yes, this post is obviously a joke, but logically, I don't think a Liberal-Conservative coalition/merger makes any less sense than a Liberal-NDP one.

    I encourage any of the pro-merger Liberals to give me a serious argument of why it isn't.


    I'm NOT in favour of any merger (I do favour a coalition if the NDP+Libs equal close to a majority of seats), but since I think Harper is going to try to goad the Liberals into joining him in a coalition (not a merger) after the election, I think someone should address this idea that the Cons-Libs have as much in common as the Libs-NDP.

    Simply put, I think its fair to say that 70-80% of Liberal partisans (not Liberal voters) HATE Stephen Harper and see him as the most right-wing Prime Minister this country has ever had. They think that the majority of his cabinet is completely incompetent and would shudder to a support a party led by Jason Kenney, Maxime Bernier, Peter Van Loan or whoever else might take over if Harper stepped down.

    These same people think Jack Layon is an idiot, but must would think something along the lines of "his heart is in the right place, he just doesn't understand the economy". They certainly don't hate him and agree with him far more often than they ever do Harper.

    If you look at voting on private member's bills, Libs and NDPers have a FAR more similar voting record than Libs and Cons. Its those bills that tell you where teh hearts of Liberal and NDP members really lie.

    Basically if the NDP weren't anti-corporate, there were would be no fundamental differences between Liberals and NDP at all (with the exception of Israel, but there are some Liberal MPs very critical of Israel already and they would be a minority in any coalition/merger as well).

    Whereas if you took issues such as the gun registry (100% Con support is a lot more than 33% NDP support), abortion rights, same-sex marriage, foreign aid, affordable housing, child care, Kelowna/Aboriginal issues, the environment, the Libs and NDP have largely identical views and the Cons and Libs couldn't be further apart. The Libs and NDP now even have the EXACT SAME position on corporate taxes.

    And for those who say the NDP constitution and their members are so wedded to socialism that they can't help but always be anti-corporate, just look at ANY NDP provincial government. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan they CUT spending and income and corporate taxes! They were called business friendly parties. Yet Jack Layton still shows up to their conventions.

    Have NDP provincial governments really been any more left than federal Liberal governments over the years?

    If the NDP were ever in government with the Liberals I see no reason why they wouldn't act just as moderate as their provincial cousins. So therefore in a a coalition or merger, I think it's pretty safe to say that it would act little different than previous federal Liberal minority governments. And we survived those didn't we?

    So I believe that there would be little compromise involved in a Liberal-NDP coalition/merger (again just look at where they stand on issues of the day), whereas a Lib-Con coalition (a merger frankly would never happen) would involve a total surrender of principles, unless gay rights, women's rights, foreign aid in Africa, aboriginal rights, child care, poverty, reducing GHG's, etc... are issues that we no longer care about.

    And if we do care about those issues than the NDP are the natural coalition partner to help get things done.

    Ok rant over...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:46 PM  

  • Maybe Ignatieff should consider crossing the floor. His views are very close to the Conservative party's in some ways.

    eg. Immigration

    By Blogger Joanne (True Blue), at 10:37 AM  

  • Self deception?

    Difficult though, as it may seem..

    The only Royal proud Canadian way to solve the Liberal dillema is to bite the bullet and carefully choose a new vital Charismatic leader.

    This way you can rise in the polls without any NDP baggage.

    In the trenches..here..many people equate the NDP to a failed system known as communism.

    A vast voting block of European flavoured Canadians.

    By Blogger TonyGuitar, at 11:55 AM  

  • joking, right!?

    the liberal party needs a major overhaul. give me something different, a major leader, attitude, guts, someone innovative, and throw in some humor... and maybe i'll just vote in the next election!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:40 PM  

  • joking, right!?

    the liberal party needs a major overhaul. give me something different, a major leader, attitude, guts, someone innovative, and throw in some humor... and maybe i'll just vote in the next election!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:40 PM  

  • It is pretty pathetic to watch the natural governing party of Canada to be this lost and confused after four years out of government.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:18 PM  

  • Running a ministerial portfolio is likely no different than being a top-level manager at a large corporation. Ideology has little to do with managing an organization. A Liberal can be just as good a Cabinet Minister as a Tory (the exception, of course, being that anything a Liberal does, by definition, is wrong.)

    The difference - and it's a fundamental difference - is in ideology, and ideology shapes legislation. The Liberal Party and it's supporters subscribe to a fundamentally incorrect ideology: that people are, by and large, incapable of looking after themselves, and therefore need to by organized into communities and have a big government provide them withball kinds of social [engineering] programs (to ensure cultural preservation, or provide childcare, or whatever). The NDP is even more extreme in this belief.

    Conservatives, by and large, believe people should be left alone. Obviously there are some services that the government needs to provide, but the number of services provided is much smaller and tends to be limited to essential programs - like defense and the RCMP.

    This fundamental ideological divide between Liberals and Conservatives means that the more appropriate place for Liberals to take their corrupt ways is towards the NDP. There is no place for the Party of Adscam within the Conservative Party machine.

    By Blogger Steven, at 1:22 PM  

  • Unless dealing with Elections Canada in which the rules do not apply to the Conseratives or dealing with envelopes filled with money.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:19 PM  

  • Brian Mulroney was not involved with the CPC, he was involved with the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, which died in October, 1993.

    As for Elections Canada, the Conservative Party did nothing wrong, and the Corts have agreed: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/01/18/tories-in-and-out-election-spending.html

    Your personal biases against the CPC notwithstanding, Anonymous Person, clearly there is no issue here except the one you're making in your own mind.

    By Blogger Steven, at 3:05 PM  

  • "And of course the CPC more resembles the Alliance than the PC party of old, just compare where Mulroney stood on social issues and foreign policy compared to this party."

    In the short term, yes. However the Conservative party is drifting to the left and will continue to do so over time. You have to remember that the Alliance included members that mused about giving 12 year-olds the death penalty, allowing businesses to discriminate in hiring, and that compared living on native reservations to a vacation in Hawaii.

    Far-right MP's like Myron Thompsons, Larry Spencers, Darrel Stinsons, and Jim Pankiws of the reform party are slowly being replaced by hyper-partisan hacks that care about nothing but winning (eg. Pierre Poilievre).


    Why? The merger increased the party's competitiveness, and made it beholden to more left wing swing ridings than before (while also giving them more moderate MPs).

    Over time parties will move where the votes are. A merged Liberal-NDP party would drift towards the centre over time - unless it faced a serious challenge from its left flank.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 5:09 PM  

  • As usual, Dan, you pilfer from my web columns. I have been calling for a new Liberal-Conservative Party for the last couple of years. Also, more recently I have explained why a merger with the NDP would not work:
    Ignatieff clicks his heels...

    By Blogger Werner Patels, at 6:37 PM  

  • Notwithstanding Steven's ridiculous comments above, "ideology" is indeed to some extent the Liberal Party's problem. Only four years out of power, Liberals seem to have little to no sense about their connection to the current or even past aspirations of Canadians (or their base!). As near as I can tell, the only principles they have are those that contribute to their holding power as the "natural governing party". Out of power, they have taken no consistent tacks or articulated any kind of clear vision. What is the alternative? What distinguishes the Liberal Party? A history of reasonably competent government, I suppose, but saying "we tackled the 1990s deficit" isn't a reason why people should vote for them.

    Ultimately, there has been a swing of about 5-6% from the Liberals to the CPC since 2004. On one hand, they must determine why those voters left. More importantly, they need to figure out why they should come back. Presenting an alternative to the aforementioned "hyperpartisan hacks" would be a start.

    By Blogger Josh, at 6:49 PM  

  • As a CPC supporter whether it is a joke or not I like the idea. It might even force the people of Quebec to reconsider whether they want to be represented in government in Ottawa or remain as mere opposition without any real power. It would be a merger of the center.

    Reform might re-emerge but would be weak. The NDP and Greens might siphon off some left wing Liberal votes but such a merger has the potential to deliver majority governments long in to the future and to clean up Canada's fiscal, social and immigration problems. The nation needs it. John Manley would be a great choice for leader, if he could be persuaded to run. In a serious tone there would have to be a leadership convention. Harper would likely run but would lose, as would Iggy and Rae if they ran. The new leader would be planted firmly in the middle and with a majority could fix the nation.

    By Blogger Earl, at 7:43 PM  

  • Steve, the ruling only affected a few of the accused and many still could be in trouble because of the first verdict. And Mulroney holding a membership in the Conservative party means he is involved.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:44 PM  

  • If the CPC and LPOC actually merged and there is little in the way of ideology to to differentiate the two parties, then a leadership convention would be held. Both parties now have the one member one vote mechanism for choosing a leader. There is little to suggest that Harper, Iggy or Rae could win. Bernard Lord or John Manley would be good choices.

    BTW check out the polling analysis at:

    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

    Not my blog but a very good non partisan look at polling and the resulting seat totals.

    By Blogger Earl, at 7:56 PM  

  • Is the Liberal leadership simply one member one vote or is it like the Conservative party where each riding is allocated 100 points.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:52 PM  

  • A unified Libservative party would rule for a century ... over Ontario.

    Quebec would be horrified at being ruled permanently by Conservatives and secede.

    The four Western provinces would be horrified at being ruled permenantly by Liberals and secede.

    The four Atlantic provinces would be so far from Ontario that they would join the U.S..

    That leaves Ontario. (The Arctic regions would likely be split between the West and Quebec.)

    Have fun! :)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:40 AM  

  • Anon 9:46 - You make a good point about provincial NDP governments, but those governments but a lot of those have existed in the absence of a Liberal Paty (like in Sask and Man), or with a shifted right Liberal Party.

    So they end up taking over the centre-left of the spectrum, rather than the left.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:36 AM  

  • Anon 8:52 - all ridings are weighted equally in the Liberal leadership, like in the Tory one.

    I think the CPC don't give ridings their full 100 points if they don't have 100 people actually vote whereas the Liberals do, but, other than that, I believe it's basically the same system.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:42 AM  

  • The CPC gives ridings the full 100 points even if they have less than 100 voters. The proposal to change that is what Peter MacKay threw his big hissy fit over at the 2005 party convention.

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 12:58 AM  

  • The BC Liberals are effectively a merged Liberal Conservative party as are to a lesser degree is the Saskatchewan party and the Quebec Liberals. You could even argue a lot of people who support the Stelmach PC's in Alberta such as Allison Redford have political viewpoints not far from many Liberals. BC and the west is actually the biggest hurdle for a Liberal NDP merger largely due the the tradition of the NDP in BC of being closer to labor and more activist and the Liberals and Conservatives being aligned with each other against the NDP since the days of WAC Bennett. In fact I have already heard many conservatives voicing fear that a Liberal Conservative merger would give us a national govt similar to Ed Stelmach's.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:41 PM  

  • The reality is that merging the NDP and Liberals or the Liberals and Conservatives amounts to the same thing. If you merge the NDP and Liberals, blue Liberals will join the Tories. If you merge the Conservatives and Liberals, red Liberals will join the NDP.

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