Saturday, September 27, 2008

Seat Projections

For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections

The polls have taken a turn for the worse for the Liberals, and my projections now show Harper with a 52.3% chance of a majority...and that's mainly due to older sample that hasn't completely decayed in weight yet. As always though, things can change a lot between now and election day.

From a methodology perspective, I'm hoping to see a few more regional breakdowns on some of these polls so that some of the Montreal/Toronto dynamics can be better taken into account.
















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9 Comments:

  • Why do the MSM keep trying to promote the fact that the Dips have a shot at official opposition? Yes I'm being bitter, but the MSM is doing all they can to help Harper win this election. Plus, this incessant polling is distorting this election as well. Its become a bandwagon effect promoted by the media. Christ that twit Jane Taber is already talking about the next leadership race.

    Paul Wells is suggesting that May may want to after the debate openly support the Libs to prevent a Con majority. I calculate that could mean the Libs finishing with approx 110 seats in total. What do I know, the MSM has already decided who's going to win.

    By Blogger liberazzi, at 12:57 PM  

  • msm is not trying to help PMSH.
    Beating the Harper majority drum to raise fear, not support.

    By Blogger wilson, at 1:48 PM  

  • CTV stands to benefit from a Harper Majority, because their biggest competition in Canada is the CBC, and conservatives have no problem allowing large businesses to crush small ones, so no more upstarts like Znaimer.

    CBC is a big union shop, and the idea that the NDP will get in must be appealing in some respects.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:50 PM  

  • Putting the latest Harris Decima and Nanos numbers in the Hill and Knowlton election predictor, there are some trends.
    The Conservatives gain seats in Nfld. The Liberals still sweep PEI. Tories and NDP pick up in Nova Scotia. Conservatives gain four seats in NB. The BQ holds 44 to 51 seats. In Ontario, the Liberals win less than 40 seats, with Ignatief and McGuinty losing to the Conservatives. In Manitoba, the Liberals get 0-1 seats. In BC the Liberals get two seats.
    Wildcards in upcoming weeks: The Anybody but Harper movement, low voter turnout, Green collapse on election day, popular incumbents beating the trends, Quebec and Atlantic Canada moving toward the percieved winner.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 4:22 PM  

  • “In BC the Liberals get two seats.”

    Nuna,

    Not going to happen! The NDP is just being hopeful.

    Anyway, I'm not surprised by the trend. Someone asked some time ago whether anyone else believed that dion could do it. The answer is now obvious. Obama could do it.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 6:00 PM  

  • Any thoughts on how that will all break down in Atlantic Canada province-by-province?

    By Blogger nbt, at 6:17 PM  

  • The Toronto Star has a poll with the Liberals and NDP tied at 21 with the Conservatives at 40.
    That would give the Liberals two seats in western Canada-Van South and Wascana.
    Those numbers also have Scott Brison and Dominic Leblanc losing their seats, so take that for what it's worth.
    The Liberals would lose Brampton and all Ontario cities except Bob Rae's seat, Scarborough and York seats and some in Missasauga
    THe BQ would take 53.
    Conservaties would take 6 in Nfld. 2 in PEI, 8 in NB and 5 in NS.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 10:13 PM  

  • Don't count on Wascana. Ralph is going down. Its about time. Hes been feeding at the public trough long enough.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:50 PM  

  • nbt - without seeing any regional breaks in Atlantic Canada, it's hard to predict. But, common consensus has the Libs/NDP picking up in Newfoundland.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:21 AM  

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