Monday, October 13, 2008

Polls, Projections, Predictions

This is your chance to make predictions for tomorrow - either on popular vote, seat totals, or on any of the close riding races you've been following that you think might surprise people. The final projections from the Calgary Grit simulation model are at the bottom of this post - but, before then, here's what some other people are saying. I'll be updating this post throughout the day tomorrow, so if you come across anything I've missed, feel free to send it my way.

First up, the polls:

Nanos
CPC 34.2%
Lib 26.7%
NDP 21.4%
Bloc 9.5%
Green 8.2%

Ipsos Reid
CPC 34%
Lib 29%
NDP 18%
Bloc 9%
Green 8%

Harris Decima
CPC 34%
Lib 25%
NDP 19%
Bloc 11%
Green 9%

Angus Reid
CPC 38%
Lib 28%
NDP 19%
Bloc 9%
Green 6%

Strategic Counsel
CPC 33%
Lib 28%
NDP 18%
Green 11%
Bloc 10%

Segma
CPC 34.6%
Lib 22.9%
NDP 20.5%
Bloc 10.3%
Green 10.2%

Ekos
CPC 34.8%
Lib 26.4%
NDP 19.4%
Green 9.6%
Bloc 9.8%


Then, the predictons and projections:

Election Prediction Project
CPC 125
Lib 94
NDP 36
Bloc 51
Ind 2

Democratic Space
CPC 128
Lib 92
NDP 34
Bloc 52
Ind 2

UBC Stock Market
CPC 131
Lib 89
NDP 39
BQ 47
Oth 2

Barry Kay Seat Projections
CPC 135
Lib 87
NDP 33
Bloc 51
Ind 2

David Akin
CPC 128
Lib 84
NDP 43
Bloc 50
Green 1
Ind 2

Andrew Coyne
CPC 133
Lib 88
NDP 34
Bloc 51
Ind 2

Ekos Predictions
CPC 136
Lib 84
NDP 35
Bloc 51
Ind 2

Scott Reid
CPC 124
Lib 82
NDP 43
Bloc 58
Ind 1

Kady O'Malley
CPC 129
Lib 91
NDP 33
Bloc 53
Ind 2

Andrew Steele
CPC 121
Lib 90
NDP 44
Bloc 50
Ind 3


Which finally brings us to the Calgary Grit Simulation Projections. The methodology can be found here. The short version of it is that I've taken regional breaks on all publicly released opinion polls and plugged them into a model that takes into account results from the past 2 elections, by elections, and incumbency effects. Then, based on the variance of the polls and the variance in this model (found using '04 data to project '06), I simulate 1000 elections - this way, it recognizes that a projected 40% to 39% win in a riding only means the party on top has a better chance of winning the seat...they won't neccesarily take it.

For this final update, I'd considered flushing all the data except for the last results from each pollster, but a lot of people do vote in advanced polls and thanksgiving polling is always kind of wonky so I've kept the model the same - that is, weighted using a 3 day half life (so 1000 interviews today is worth as much as 500 interviews 3 days ago). Because the final polls use bigger samples and are more recent, they'll be weighted far more heavily anyways. Oh, and Strategic Counsel never posted the regional breaks from their final poll on their website, so they've been excluded.

So, with all that said, the model predicts:

CPC 133.2
Lib 86.2
Bloc 51.6
NDP 36.0
Ind 1.0

If you're curious, just using the final polling numbers produces a very similar result of CPC 131.6, Lib 86.7, Bloc 52.5, NDP 36.2.

I spent some time this weekend going through things riding by riding and, as for my personal predictions, I'll say: CPC 136, Lib 84, Bloc 49, NDP 37, Ind 2.

Below are the tables, regional breaks, confidence intervals, and all that jazz:















24 Comments:

  • Conservative: 119
    Liberal: 99
    Bloc: 52
    NDP: 36
    Independents: 2
    Green: 0

    Losses in Quebec and Atlantic are main areas that will keep Conservative numbers down. In other regions a Conservative loss will mean a Liberal gain, and vice versa. If these numbers are correct the NDP and Liberals will form a coalition, or the NDP will agree to back the Liberals for a length of time.

    By Blogger Scott, at 10:20 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 10:39 PM  

  • I agree with the majority and CG's projection. A small (humiliating) improvement for harper. A defeat for dion.

    The most significant result will be in Quebec where harper is going to lose big. Tax cuts aren't enough. You have to win their hearts.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 10:43 PM  

  • Conservatives 146
    Liberals 71
    Bloc 50
    NDP 38
    Independents 2
    Speaker-1

    No possible coalition between NDP and Liberals.

    Popular Vote

    Conservatives 37
    Liberals 26
    NDP 19
    Bloc 9
    Greens 8

    Large numbers of former Liberal voters in urban Ontario and BC will vote Green. The NDP and Liberals will see a slight uptake in support in Quebec as Conservative voters migrate to the Bloc to replace Bloc supporters migrating to the NDP and Liberals in Montreal.

    The Conservatives will make gains in Winnipeg, the Lowermainland, and the 905.

    Liberal looses in Northern Ontario are the NDP’s gain.


    With the electorate unhappy and uninterested, the number of Canadians voting will reach historic lows

    BC

    Conservatives 23 (+6)
    NDP 9 (-1)
    Liberals 4 (-5)

    Alberta

    Conservatives 28

    Saskatchewan

    Conservatives 12
    Liberals 1 (-1)
    NDP 1 (+1)

    Manitoba

    Conservatives 10 (+2)
    NDP 4 (+1)
    Liberals (-3)

    Ontario

    Liberals 37 (-17)
    Conservatives 51 (+11)
    NDP 18 (+6)

    Quebec

    Bloc 50
    Conservatives 10 (-1)
    Liberals 13
    NDP 1 (+1)
    Independents 1

    New Brunswick

    Liberals 3 (-3)
    Conservatives 6 (+3)
    NDP 1

    Novo Scotia

    Liberals 4 (-2)
    Conservatives 3
    NDP 3
    Independents 1 (+1)

    PEI

    Liberals 4

    Newfoundland

    Liberals 5 (+1)
    NDP 1 (+1)
    Conservatives 1 (-2)

    NWT

    NDP

    Yukon

    Liberals

    Nunavut

    Conservatives (+1)

    (Liberals -1)


    Conservatives: seat pick ups

    1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
    2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
    3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
    4) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
    5) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
    6) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals
    7) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals
    8) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals
    9) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals
    10) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals
    11) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals
    12) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals
    13) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals
    14) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals
    15) Conservatives pick up Halton from Liberals
    16) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
    17) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals
    18) Conservative pick up Brampton West from Liberals
    19) Conservative pick up North Vancouver from Liberals

    1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens

    1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
    2) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP
    3) Conservative pick up West Wiminserter Coquitlam from NDP

    Liberals: seat pick ups

    1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives

    NDP: seat pick ups

    1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
    2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
    3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
    4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals
    5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals
    6) NDP pick up Welland from Liberals
    7) NDP pick up Kenora from Liberals

    1) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives(Liberal win 2006)
    2) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson)
    3) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives

    Bloc: seat pick ups

    1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives

    By Anonymous Adrian, at 10:49 PM  

  • Mine is much more Optimistic but I personally do think there may be some surprises

    108 Conseravtives
    105 Liberals
    52 Bloquistes
    40 New Democrats
    3 Independents

    Nanos polls shows the liberals to still be ahead in Southwestern Ontario and the GTA

    By Blogger Jack, at 10:56 PM  

  • I can see 3 Green seats; I expect a slight Harper majority. I think Layton's missed his chance to be Opposition, which I would bet he'd be good at. Can't wait to see the outcome.

    By Blogger Ashley_Wilkes-Booth, at 11:34 PM  

  • I won't predict nationally, but I think Saskatchewan will be a surprise. Goodale is safe. But the big news will be 3 NDP seats.

    By Anonymous Riders Fan, at 11:58 PM  

  • You spent some time this weekend going through things riding by riding?

    Really?

    OK, how exactly do you do that? I'd love to try it. I just have absolutely no idea what information I would use. Are you comparing polling results from past elections to the actual results in past elections, then transposing the differences onto polling results this time, or what?

    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 12:36 AM  

  • Conservative = 135
    Liberal = 85
    NPD = 39
    Bloc = 47
    ind = 2

    just my thoughts...

    By Anonymous Andrew, at 12:40 AM  

  • Conservative - 133
    Liberal - 88
    NDP - 38
    BQ - 48
    Green - 0
    Independent - 2

    I've got the BQ a few seats down from what I thought two days ago. Only reason for that is due to the normally prescient Nanos poll showing a pretty sharp downward trend for the Bloc in Quebec the last couple of days which might confirm the last Ipsos Reid poll showing surprising strength for the Tories outside the Montreal metro area (Bloc 36-Conservative 31).

    Of course, the logical part of my brain expects the Bloc to hit 52-54 seats and immediately crow about how seperatism is back, baby. Blech.

    By Anonymous Mike Berthold, at 1:23 AM  

  • Christ Adrian, I do not know what to say other than you pulled a Harper and plagiarized me.

    Koby http://themaplethree.blogspot.com/2008/10/seat-predictions.html

    “Large numbers of former Liberal voters in urban Ontario
    and BC will vote Green. The NDP and Liberals will see a slight uptake in support in Quebec as Conservative voters migrate to the Bloc to replace Bloc supporters migrating to the NDP and Liberals in Montreal.

    The Conservatives will make gains in Winnipeg, the Lowermainland, and the 905.

    Liberal looses in Northern Ontario are the NDP’s gain.

    The Conservatives will loose their stranglehold on Quebec City to the Bloc

    With the electorate unhappy and uninterested, the number of Canadians voting will reach historic lows.”


    Then again some say that plagiarism, the truest form of imitation is a form of flattery. So in that respect thanks.

    My predication, as posted on my blog.

    Voter Turnout

    58%

    Popular Vote

    Conservatives 34.5 (-1.5)
    Liberals 27 (-3)
    NDP 19 (+1.5)
    Bloc 10.5
    Greens 7.5 (+3)

    Canada

    Conservatives 138 (+14)
    Liberals 75 (-28)
    Bloc 53 (+2)
    NDP 40 (+11)
    Independents 2 (+1)

    BC

    Conservatives 23 (+6)
    NDP 9 (-1)
    Liberals 4 (-5)

    Alberta

    Conservatives 28

    Saskatchewan

    Conservatives 12
    Liberals 1 (-1)
    NDP 1 (+1)

    Manitoba

    Conservatives 10 (+2)
    NDP 4 (+1)
    Liberals (-3)

    Ontario

    Liberals 37 (-17)
    Conservatives 50 (+10)
    NDP 19 (+7)

    Quebec

    Bloc 53 (+2)
    Conservatives 6 (-4)
    Liberals 14 (+1)
    NDP 1 (+1)
    Independents 1

    New Brunswick

    Liberals 4 (-2)
    Conservatives 5 (+2)
    NDP 1

    Novo Scotia

    Liberals 5 (-1)
    Conservatives 2
    NDP 3
    Independents 1 (+1)

    PEI

    Liberals 4

    Newfoundland

    Liberals 5 (+1)
    NDP 1 (+1)
    Conservatives 1 (-2)

    NWT

    NDP

    Yukon

    Liberals

    Nunavut

    Conservatives (+1)

    (Liberals -1)

    Conservatives: seat pick ups

    1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
    2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
    3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
    4) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
    5) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
    6) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals
    7) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals
    8) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals
    9) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals
    10) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals
    11) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals
    12) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals
    13) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals
    14) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals
    15) Conservatives pick up Halton from Liberals
    16) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
    17) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals


    1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens

    1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
    2) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP

    Liberals: seat pick ups

    1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives

    1) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP

    1) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc
    2) Liberals pick up Ahuntsic form the Bloc

    NDP: seat pick ups

    1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
    2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
    3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
    4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals
    5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals
    6) NDP pick up Welland from Liberals
    7) NDP pick up Kenora from Liberals

    1) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives(Liberal win 2006)
    2) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson)
    3) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives
    4) NDP pick up Oshawa from the Conservatives
    5) NDP pick up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar from Conservatives
    6) NDP pick up South Shore-St. Margaret's from Conservatives

    Bloc: seat pick ups

    1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives
    2) Bloc pick up Louis Hebert from Conservatives
    3) Bloc pick up Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles from Conservatives
    4) Bloc pick up Beauport-Limoilou from Conservatives
    5) Bloc pick up Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean from Conservatives

    >>>You spent some time this weekend going through things riding by riding?

    Really?

    No. I am something a political junkie and so it did not take long. I had also done up a similar post back in June when the Conservatives were in bashing away at Ontario. http://themaplethree.blogspot.com/2008/06/seats-projections-if-election-was-held.html
    My views changed quite a bit between June and now, but not about Liberal fortunes in Northern Ontario and BC.

    >>>>>> OK, how exactly do you do that? I'd love to try it. I just have absolutely no idea what information I would use.

    Election prediction project is a great place to start. Sure there a many partisans posting this or that. However, there are also a lot of political junkies posting stuff there and it is a great place to find out about local polls and candidates that you never here about nationally. Democratic space is another great site.

    By Blogger Koby, at 1:31 AM  

  • CG I won't pretend to be nearly informed enough to make any sort of prediction beyond my own back yard (Central Edmonton).

    But based on the sign wars, local media coverage and many informal conversations with voters in this part of the world, I think that the CPC is about to lose two seats here in oiltown.

    Jim Wachowich in Ed-Centre by a hair, Linda Duncan in Ed-Strathcona by a couple thousand.

    Fingers crossed.

    By Anonymous Justin, at 2:11 AM  

  • Total
    CPC: 127
    LPC: 86
    NDP: 40
    BQ: 54
    Ind: 2 Andre Arthur, Bill Casey

    Ontario
    Cons: 46
    Libs: 44
    NDP: 16

    Quebec
    Cons: 5
    LPC: 14
    BQ: 54
    NDP: 1
    Ind: 1 (Andre Arthur)

    New Brunswick:
    Cons: 5
    LPC: 4
    NDP: 1

    Nova Scotia
    Cons 2
    LPC: 7
    NDP: 2
    ind: 1 (Hearn)

    PEI
    LPC: 4

    NFLD
    LPC: 6
    NDP: 1

    BC
    CPC: 20
    LPC: 4
    NDP: 12

    AB
    CPC: 27
    NDP: 1

    SK
    NDP: 1
    LPC: 1
    CPC: 12

    MB
    CPC: 9
    NDP: 4
    LPC: 1

    North
    LPC: 1
    CPC: 1
    NDP: 1

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 5:05 AM  

  • Intersting riding predictions

    1. Tories win in Nunavat
    2. Elizabeth May loses
    3. Trudeau loses in Papineau (I wish - but the polls there are much closer than I had thought, so I'm going to make the gutsy call)
    4. Blackburn loses, and its no longer a Luc Harvey riding
    5. Gerard Kennedy loses in my riding
    6. Ignatieff keeps his seat, but it is surprisingly close. Boyers is a strong candidate.
    7. Michael Fortier will lose but break 35% of the vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 5:20 AM  

  • liberal minority, trudeau wins his seat, so those kenedy, or such a small minority for harpy that hes kicked out, by those he has been controlling exacting their revenge a la consie style...oh and nanos is exposed as been overated, he hit it once last election, since then to many have hoped he always right.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:44 AM  

  • Good stuff CG, I've enjoyed it. I did a bit of a model myself (much cruder than yours) but got similar results:

    CPC 129
    Lib 85
    BQ 50
    NDP 41
    Ind 3
    Grn 0

    You can find the final projection here.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 7:46 AM  

  • Gauntlet - I pretty much just looked at the results from my model and anywhere where it was close, I checked EPP to see what kind of comments people were making. Plus, some of the more "high profile" ridings like Parkdale High Park or Papineau, I went more with my gut on.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:18 AM  

  • I think Democratic Space and Election Prediction are bang on, as usual.

    I think this election is hard to predict because of the vote-splitting. The Tories might do a little better than people think, plus the trending seems to be arcing slightly back to their favour (outside Quebec).

    The Green Party won't win a seat.

    Open question to everyone: Which leaders will have to step down? How soon will we be voting again?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:50 AM  

  • Splitting makes this one very hard to call, but looks like it's most likely favorable to the Cons (again, outside Quebec):

    CPC 138 (37.5%)
    Lib 76 (27%)
    NDP 39
    Gre 0
    BQ 54
    Oth 1

    With fewer than 80 seats and the lowest Lib popular vote precentage in history (current record: Turner's 28% in 84), Dion cannot survive.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:12 PM  

  • I wonder if the bounce in the stock market will have an impact.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:32 PM  

  • 128 Conseravtives
    95 Liberals
    46 Bloc Q
    39 NDP

    By Anonymous Mezba, at 1:49 PM  

  • 79 seats for the Libs, sign, seal it, deliver it. I have been calling that for about 18 months as you know Dan.

    The rest I do not care about, oh and I will owe you 20 dollars.

    GPOitHotW

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:12 PM  

  • Oh, and if anyone wants my provincial breaks:

    Newfoundland: Lib 6, NDP 1
    PEI: Lib 4
    NS: Lib 5, CPC 3, NDP 2
    NB: Lib 5, CPC 4, NDP 1
    Quebec: Bloc 49, Lib 16, CPC 8, NDP 1, Ind 1
    Ontario: CPC 51, Lib 40, NDP 15
    Manitoba: CPC 7, NDP 4, Lib 3
    Sask: CPC 12, NDP 1, Lib 1
    AB: CPC 27, NDP 1
    BC: CPC 23, NDP 10, Lib 3
    North: CPC 1, Lib 1, NDP 1

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:01 PM  

  • Thanks so much for your article, quite helpful material.

    By Anonymous contactos barcelona, at 5:36 PM  

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