Thursday, January 29, 2009

Jack Attack

A jilted Jack has lashed out against his old coalition partners with a pair of new radio ads. There’s nothing overly novel about them – it’s basically a rehash of the same tactic he ran against Dion last campaign.

But, really, it’s still just the NDP. It’s like worrying about a leaky faucet, when there’s a hurricane warning. The main show will be the Conservative attack ads, which have yet to materialize. So when?

I heard from a Tory that their original game plan had been for a blanket ad buy right after the announcement of the winner at the LPC leadership convention, to run their ads then. Now that the Liberals have cleverly diffused that option, the guessing game is on as to when the assault begins. The Tories probably had to hold off until after the budget to do anything, but you can bet that hasn’t stopped them from scripting and focus group testing a few ads by now.

So any guesses as to the launch date? I’ll pick February 10th in the pool.

Oh, and as a fun trivia tid-bit, today marks the 2 year anniversary of the infamous “they didn’t get it done” ads.

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16 Comments:

  • Feb. 20. The day after Mr. Change comes for a visit.

    By Blogger Robert McClelland, at 10:19 PM  

  • One question, if Michael does find a time to bring down Harper, are the Bloc and the NDP going to vote against him and vote with Harper, after Jack's childish complaining.

    By Anonymous Cari, at 11:21 PM  

  • My prediction: Harper won't launch attack ads. If he does, it will be later, rather than sooner.

    1. Iggy is reasonably well-defined compared to Dion. Attack ads will be less effective.
    2. Harper just survived a major confidence vote. If he uses attack ads the best time for them is before a confidence vote because it can soften Liberal resolve, and if he still loses the vote, Harper has at least been able to run ads close to an election that aren't impacted by the 20 million dollar limit.
    3. A leadership-centric campaign was contingent on a weak Liberal leader, who even trailed Jack Layton on "best leader" polls. Harper never used an attack strategy on Martin, and won't on Ignatieff.
    4. The degree to which Harper relied on his "attack machine" is greatly overstated. The party running the most negative ads in 2008 was the Liberals (while the NDP ran the most over-the-top one).

    There will be SOME negative ads at some point, but it is closer to 2006 than 2008.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:12 AM  

  • hosertohoosier,

    They work in the U.S., they work here.

    They worked last time, they will work again.

    Question No. 1: CG is correct, when?

    Question No. 2: Can the Liberals counter those attack ads? Or because of a lack of funds, are we forced to again stay silent and hope MSM and Youtube help us for free?

    Once the dust settles, the December near-death experience and forced non-Conservative budget, will be cleverly spun by Harper to encourage even more donations and to emphasize the critical importance that a majority is achieved in the next election.

    Negative ads are most effective when they are the first impressions or before people create an impression. Since Robert took February 20, I will take February 21, and go one further, on HNIC.

    By Blogger MississaugaPeter, at 3:44 AM  

  • Michael and the Liberals are screwed.


    > I think for Ignatieff, getting rid of Harper now is not his priority. He can wait a year or two.


    He is needs to wait a year or two and HOPE Canadians forget.


    Dion let Harper walk over him.
    Michael joined Harper, just one month after Harper set out to completely destroy balanced elections and the Liberals in the process through cutting election funding. How could Michael join Harper after that? Please tell me.


    Michael and the Liberals are screwed. Neither the NDP or the BLOC will ever come to their aid again. Listen to what was said, I am pretty sure they met and more.


    This is NOT probation. Harper has absolute victory.


    The opposition has been divided and conquered. Thanks to Michael joining Harper even after what Harper has done.

    By Blogger Socially Active, at 5:59 AM  

  • If NDP and BLOC vote for the Tories - then they become the ones proping up Harper.

    Layton has made himself look very pitiful, and, how come he had these ads ready so soon? Boy, trustworthy in a coalition situation, I think not.

    Hey, let them blow their money on these ads.

    Layton, trying to be another Obama - hey Jackie boy, one of the reasons for Obama's success is he doesn't demonize and doesn't believe in it.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:01 AM  

  • Feh. Attack ads against Iggy write themselves:

    "What was the Liberal leader doing while the Conservatives worked hard to rewrite the budget, to help ordinary Canadians?"

    "He finished writing his latest book."

    I'm not even a Con supporter! That bunch will probably find 100 new ways to call him an out-of-touch egghead.

    What a political dolt.

    By Blogger BriguyHFX, at 8:12 AM  

  • Good grief - of course he finished his book. He had a contract to honour. After that, he travelled all over Canada. Next......

    By the way, doesn't Jackie boy realized that Obama doesn't believe in partisanship?

    Layton, Canada's political whore will sleep with anyone trying to be relevant.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:59 AM  

  • I will say, that it wouldn't completely shock me if Harper lays off the attack ads for a while. You always try to be unpredictable in politics - we might see another sweater vest offensive this winter, with the negative stuff staying in the can until summer/next election.

    It might also be that the Tories are waiting for a big Ignatieff gaffe to latch onto.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:25 AM  

  • Jack is taking a lot of hits over his response to the budget. But really, havne't the Liberals caved on this one? We saw when SH wiggled out of the last debacle in December how he came back to rule the day. The Liberals may someday regret letting him wiggle out again.

    By Anonymous Saskleft, at 10:30 AM  

  • Iggy did the right thing.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:49 AM  

  • The next attack ads will likely be against the Liberals rather than Ignatieff. 50 billion taken out of employment insurance by Liberals?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 11:57 AM  

  • No, the Liberals haven't "caved," they have put the best interests of Canadians ahead of the electoral process. They could have voted against this budget, which would have brought down this inept government and forced an election. That would mean that for at least 5 weeks there would be no money flowing out of Ottawa to the people and industries of this country that desperately need a short-term injection of cash to stimulate the economy. Following the election, whoever ended up winning would have to create a new budget from scratch, further delaying the stimulus that our economy needs.
    This is not the time for huffing and puffing and political brinksmanship, it is a time for our officials to work together constructively for the national interest, not partisan gain. In allowing this budget to move ahead, the Liberals are doing their part to ensure that Canadians win while at the same time raising conscientious objections as befits the role of Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

    By Blogger RGM, at 1:05 PM  

  • I agree with RGM
    " put away Childish things"

    Kudos to Michael Ignatieff

    he shows real leadership

    fh

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:45 PM  

  • Yeah EI reform is a real childish concern during a depression. Liberal arrogance has no bounds.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:35 PM  

  • The Spin if

    a) MI decided to vote down the budget:

    - the coup returns, etc, etc
    - all he wants is power; unelected party leader vies to be unelected government leader
    - put the shovels away; they wanted action but chose to delay relief for Canadians

    b) MI tried to put in further amendments

    - Liberal budget not good enough for Liberals
    - they say they're more fiscally responsible but want us to spend even more

    At least MI has tried to put forward the image of being level headed and willing to be cooperative while identifying the areas up front where they can hold the Cons to not doing enough - setting the stage to differentiate themselves for an election down the road. Don't think it's such a bad idea for MI for wanting SH to wear his fundamentally sound economy for awhile.


    I think the Cons have to rethink their strategy. Now they can't use

    - power at any cost
    - he's too much like a conservative

    I think they'll go for something around being too intellectual and not identifiable with the 'regular' guy. My guess for attack ad timing - right after the book release, assuming they've had access to an early copy.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:34 PM  

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