Sunday, September 14, 2008

Week 1 in Review: Gone to the Birds

On the Net: The most attention was on the now-dismembered, for obvious reasons, but the Liberals also launched and On a more positive note, ThisIsDion was also launched.

Quote of the Week: Stephen Harper - "Do you like handcuffs?"

Guess Who's Back? Ed's Back! Jack Layton dropped his first "Ed Broadbent" reference of the campaign earlier this week, in reference to the puffin poop. It's like 2006 all over again!

Guess Who's Back? Rick's Back! Rick Mercer compares the Canadian and US elections.

Stock Market: The UBC stock market has the Tories leading the Liberals 37.5% to 28.5%, with the NDP (17.7%), Bloc (8.6%), and Greens (8.8%) all trailing.

Poll Projections: I'll be doing detailed updates of my seat projection Thursday or Friday of every week. However, given the barrage of polls out there, I'll be releasing less detailed Sunday updates as well. And, adding in the last three days of polling, the Tories are now projected to win 144.5 seats, the Liberals 92.5, the Bloc 42.3, and the NDP 27.8. Oh, and if you're interested, the Conservatives wind up a majority government on 4 out of the 1000 simulations.

Plane Names: The NDP plane has been christened "Kitchen-Air", the Liberal plane has been dubbed "Profess-Air", while the Tory plane has been cleverly named "Sweater Vest Jet".

Policy Corner: Economist Stephen Gordon on the Tories' diesel tax cut - "I’m running out of synonyms for stupid."

Conservative Week in Review
Battle Cry: "Two and a half more years! Two and half more years!"
Grade: C+
Yeah, it was a bad week for the Tory war room. There's no denying that. But the Conservative ad campaign appears to be working and Harper himself has looked cool, collected, and downright un-scary. Plus he dealt well with the gaffes which is something he hasn't always handled well in past campaigns. And despite the failure of the 6 a.m. press sessions, they've controlled the agenda and gotten their message out.

Liberal Week in Review
Battle Cry: "Introducing Canadians to Stephane Dion...only 21 short months after he was elected leader!"
Grade: C+
Dion, at the least, met expectations this week and avoided any major mishaps. However, with the Tories gaffe-prone and failing to put any real policies in the window, the door was open for the Liberals to set the agenda and, for a wide range of reasons, they failed to get their message out. Just look at the attention Harper's diesel fuel cut got compared to Dion's promise to double the child tax benefit.

NDP Week in Review
Battle Cry: "I will follow Stephen Harper to the gates of...Calgary!"
Grade: B
Jack says he's running to be Prime Minister but, in reality, he's attacking Harper so that he looks like the stronger opposition leader. And, so far, he hasn't done a bad job of that. The goal of the NDP in any campaign is always to stay relevant and he's managed to grab headlines with populist policies.

Bloc Quebecois Week in Review
Battle Cry: "We are so screwed"
Grade: D
The Bloc has limped out of the gate, with former separatists questioning the very raison d'etre of the party. And, you have to wonder, what issue does the Bloc have to rally behind anymore? Will they actually propose anything this campaign that hasn't been proposed by someone else? I have my doubts.

And, yeah, the Greens are probably the winners of the week. However, Conservatives everywhere have threatened to boycott my blog if the Greens get their own "week in review" recap so I will not elaborate on their performance at all.

In Case You Missed It
Fly Away, Little Sparrow
Not a Leader: Russian Invasion Edition
Puffin Poop
The League of Below Average Prime Ministers Endorses the Green Shift



  • And, you have to wonder, what issue does the Bloc have to rally behind anymore?

    "Free Quebec! Or if not, give Quebec more stuff!"

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 8:26 p.m.  

  • Wow, doesn't that seem a little soft on the liberals and NDP?

    I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you implying your model shows that there's a Conservative minority 996 times out of 1000? That's uh, you know. Not so good!

    I'd say B-, C, C, D. The Liberals got lost in the shuffle somehow this week in the media, between being pooped on and "I'm a fruit." Did you know Dion announced some immigration overhauls yesterday? Yeah, me neither.

    Whereas Jack is still Car Salesman Video Professor, talking about his kitchen table and ATM fees, auditioning for Most Irrelevant National Politician.

    I'm voting Bloc Ontario.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:27 p.m.  

  • You know, thinking it over, I think I may have been a bit generous to all the parties since no one really had a good week. So, although editing posts is frowned upon (I know, I know, tsk, tsk), I'm gonna make a quick change to them.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:46 p.m.  

  • Someone needs to set up a pool to see if Jack drops the Ed-bomb in the debates this year or not.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:49 p.m.  

  • There is one important fact(oid) to be mentioned. In many cultures, getting pooped on by a bird is considered extremely good luck. When it happens, people run out to buy lottery tickets, etc. So, since Dion needs all the luck in the world to win this (i.e., remain opposition leader and not get edged out by Layton), he should consider himself blessed.

    By Blogger George, at 10:50 p.m.  

  • "However, Conservatives everywhere have threatened to boycott my blog if the Greens get their own "week in review" recap"

    Do it! It will be worth the loss.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:19 a.m.  

  • Wow, I'm taken aback - I imagined the Bloc's seat projections as much worse. If things are this bad and they get 40 seats, then maybe we should think about hiring Duceppe onto the Green Party...

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 9:02 a.m.  

  • The Liberals need to re-brand the Green Shift a bit this week. They should come out strong calling it "The Green Tax Cut". Repeat it over and over and don't let people forget it.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:01 a.m.  

  • That's not a bad idea at all for Dion, Robert - I bet the Liberals are wondering why they didn't do that six months ago. Clever thinking.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 10:06 a.m.  

  • jason; I seem to recall Bloc support usually being overstated in polls the past few elections because their supporters are younger and don't generally vote as much. I was playing with the numbers, and if Harper can get it to the point where he's 3% or so up on the Bloc, they should be down in the low 30s for seat totals.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:09 a.m.  

  • The Liberals are going to bring out the "hidden agenda" again, which should stampede voters into delivering a Liberal majority.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 11:56 a.m.  

  • The Liberals seem to be running a great campaign... online where nobody sees it.

    If only they brought there material to the television, or talked more about Harper having held no campaign stops open to the public, or "the green shift is here" videos, etc.

    Maybe they're waiting for the last week of the campaign to fight the tv war. I'm afraid the war might be over by then.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:26 p.m.  

  • If only they brought there material to the television

    I'll bet there are a number of Conservative supporters that would like to see that happen as well.

    By Blogger le politico, at 4:11 p.m.  

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