Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Seat Projections

After much nagging from Gauntlet, the seat projections have returned. If you want to read up on the methodology, click here. Subsequent updates can be read here and here.

I'll be posting the final projections this weekend, once all the companies release their final polling numbers.

As always, the usual disclaimers apply - if the polls are wrong, these projections will be wrong. And, as we all know, a lot can change over the final week of a campaign.


  • I think the first graph for the Conservatives is from last week.

    By Blogger Bailey, at 11:26 PM  

  • fixed

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:45 AM  

  • Those seem fairly reasonable to me - it wouldn't at all surprise me to see all the parties roughly where they were after the last election (with the Greens getting a few more votes but no seats).

    By Anonymous Sean, at 1:28 AM  

  • carry-on.

    next election 2012?

    By Blogger art, at 10:30 AM  

  • Reports say that advance voter turnout is lower than in 2006, so there may not be a "throw the bums out" attitude among the population.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 10:32 AM  

  • That's with extra advanced polling dates this time too, right?

    Of course, the last election was in January so maybe that had something to do with it?

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:50 AM  

  • Thanks, CG. What's the percentage likelihood of Con/Lib Min/Maj?

    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 11:32 AM  

  • Very similar results to the LISPOP projection (very dissimilar results to the Hill and Knowlton proection, but that one goes poll by poll instead of aggregating).

    Also on advance polls, I wonder how those affect actual polls. For instance if the Conservatives had really good GOTV, or were more likely to vote in advance polls, would they be less likely to respond to pollsters calling? Indeed, the Tory decline coincides strongly with advance polling dates.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:44 AM  

  • The US economy collapse comes to the rescue!

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 1:48 PM  

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