Sunday, October 05, 2008

Week 4 in Review: Portions of this post have been plagiarized


Week 1 in Review
Week 2 in Review
Week 3 in Review

Quotes of the Week - Debate Edition:
"In 2 1/2 years, you've weakened this economy. You are the danger. You don't believe in the government playing a role in the economy. We have to have a government that takes a role in the economy to help people, that's what we as Liberals can offer."
-Stephane Dion

"What leaders have to do is to have a plan and not panic. Last night, Stephane, you panicked. You came on the set and announced a whole new economic plan in the middle of a national debate."
-Stephen Harper

"If you can't do the job of a leader of the opposition, I don't know why you are running to be prime minister."
-Jack Layton, to Stephane Dion.

"I know I won't be prime minister. And three of you won't be prime minister, either. Some of you know it, but you don't say it."
-Gilles Duceppe


"You’re a good father, and your kids are lovely."
-Elizabeth May, when asked to say a nice thing about Stephen Harper


On the Net: Harpernomics.ca, Macleans morning memo, Stand Canada brings attention to where candidates stand on Darfur,

Stock Market: CPC 142, Lib 80, NDP 42, BQ 40, Oth 3. With a Tory majority trading at 28%.

Election Prediction Project: CPC 118, Lib 71, BQ 37, NDP 26, Oth 2, close 54

Calgary Grit Seat Projections: Will be updated Monday or Tuesday, once a few more post-debate polls roll in. But, at this point, the results obviously vary wildly depending on who you choose to believe.

Democratic Space Seat Projections: CPC 142, Lib 82, BQ 49, NDP 34, Ind 2

Policy Corner: The Liberal Platform. The NDP Platform. The Green Platform. The Conservative Platform.

Sacked Candidate Count: The Dippers pull ahead! NDP 4, Lib 3, CPC 2

Conservative Battle Cry: "The economy is strong! The Americans have not entered Baghdad!"

Liberal Battle Cry: "We may not beat the Tories but, gosh darn it, we'll beat George Bush."

NDP Battle Cry: "I care about working families...unless they work for Exxon!"

Bloc Battle Cry: "No issue? No raison-d'etre? No problem!"

In Case You Missed It:
Vote out Anders, Part 83
A Question of Timing
English Debate Live Blog
French Debate Live Blog
Debate Drinking Game
Better Know a Riding - Papineau
Caption Contest

17 Comments:

  • Another reason to like Stephane Dion.

    He is a Habs fan.

    By Blogger ottlib, at 7:43 PM  

  • CalgaryGrit,

    Did you get a chance to read the Globe and Mail 11 webpage expose of Harper?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081004.whapercover04/BNStory/politics/home

    I don't get it why any Conservative MP would want to be elected. Being a pathetic lemming is not something I would aspire to be when I grow up. Over time, being treated as s*** just for the sake of being an MP would be rather depressing.

    The article at least answered my question why Monte Solberg jumped ship?

    After today's article, I am now wondering who the Globe and Mail are going to back. It will be very interesting to see who they and The Star end up endorsing.

    By Anonymous MississaugaPeter, at 7:46 PM  

  • We know who the Star will endorse - Dion. If they endorse Layton, he would probably have to clearly be the anti-Harper choice.

    For the Globe, they really are in doubt, but I figure they will endorse Harper reluctantly - saying something like Harper hasn't earned a majority but deserves an extension of his minority government.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 8:17 PM  

  • "He is a Habs fan."

    I can't understand why Leaf fans don't get it. 1967 was the last year the Leafs won the cup, and the last year we had a Leaf fan as Prime Minister (since Pearson is a Toronto boy). From 1968-2006, apart from 9 months in 1979, Canada has been governed by leaders that were almost certainly Habs fans (because they were from Quebec, and the generally Nordiques sucked, while the Habs did not).

    Harper, of course, needs to pretend to like the Oilers or Flames, but deep within his heart he is a Leaf fan. Some may question this decision - to back a team whose fundamentals are not sound. But Harper is an incrementalist - and the Leafs are rebuilding. They may not be Canada's natural Stanley Cup winners yet, but slowly, they will yet forge a Leafs nation.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 8:41 PM  

  • Newspaper endorsements would have been a fun question to add to the off-beat election pool I did up...maybe next time.

    I'll say the Star endorses Layton and the Globe gives a reluctant Harper endorsement (like H2H said).

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:04 PM  

  • I'd bet on the Star going for Layton, too. We'll soon see...

    By Blogger Bo Green, at 9:24 PM  

  • I think the Star will urge people to abandon the NDP and vote Liberal. NOW magazine has an interesting take on that idea on its website now.
    Has the media ever said it would be clear sailing to victory for any party, or do they always try to make it look like anything could happen at this point?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 9:43 PM  

  • Good job for linking to the Stand blog. To see what each of the party's positions on Darfur are and which candidates support Stand check out SpeaktheName.org.

    By Blogger Avnish, at 11:43 PM  

  • Call me crazy, but doesn't the EKOS poll undersample Ontario? Last time I checked, fewer people live in Quebec than Ontario, yet the Quebec sample is larger. My guess is that the Nanos numbers are the most accurate, mostly based on the fact that they nailed it the last two times, whereas all the other pollsters were significantly wrong. If so, this election is pretty close and could be decided by turn out and the ground game. Plus, the Liberals don't necessarily need to win the popular vote to win the election. The Tories have a lot of wasted votes in the west.

    By Blogger Andy, at 12:40 AM  

  • The Nanos numbers have been incredibly moody for a three day roll (Tory leads swinging from 5 points to 15 points in a matter of 2 or 3 days), and off-base from pretty much every company out there.

    Nanos has a good track record, but it's wishful thinking to believe he's on the money.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:24 AM  

  • Definition of wishful thinking: Posting as "Anonymous" and thinking you are credible.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 7:08 AM  

  • One wonders what Anonymous will have to say now that Harris/Decima has the CPC at 32%

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 11:37 AM  

  • RB,

    He would probably point to Ipsos numbers where the CPC is still doing well, Angus-Reid or the Strategic Counsel battleground poll.

    That said I would hate to be a fly on the wall in Harper's office right now.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:47 PM  

  • The real trouble is this:

    http://www.healthzone.ca/health/article/512306
    Then this:
    http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081006.wmarkets1006/BNStory/SpecialEvents2/home

    And hmm I wonder which campaign these guys are trying to derail a la Ralph Klein:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081006.whealthcare1006/BNStory/National/home
    and then this:
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081005.welxnlayton1005/BNStory/politics/home

    Campaigns matter, but they are noise - a margin of error you can push around underlying fundamentals. What we know about those fundamentals just turned decidedly against the Conservatives.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:54 PM  

  • The other thing I wonder about is this:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/cpcpcc

    The Conservative ads are all at least 3 weeks old, apart from a few running in Quebec (and apparently not making much of a difference there). Are the Tories broke (or rather, have they spent up to the 20 million dollar cap)?

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:07 PM  

  • Call me crazy, but doesn't the EKOS poll undersample Ontario? Last time I checked, fewer people live in Quebec than Ontario, yet the Quebec sample is larger.

    It's not an "undersample", just a smaller one - the national estimates are obtained with a weighted average of each regional estimate, using the population weights.

    By Blogger Josh G, at 1:36 PM  

  • Reality Bites: Definition of wishful thinking: Posting as "Anonymous" and thinking you are credible.

    As opposed to posting under a pseudonym and thinking you are credible.

    (Signed, another guy posting under a pseudonym.)

    One wonders what Anonymous will have to say now that Harris/Decima has the CPC at 32%

    Well, I suppose he could point out that the same poll has the Liberals at 25% (one point farther behind than the last election) and the NDP at 21% (almost 9% closer to the Liberals than the last election).

    He could also point out that, according to the Hill & Knowlton predictor, that would result in seat totals of 120 Con, 85 Lib, 55 NDP, 46 Bloc, 1 Grn, 1 Ind - which represents a 35-seat spread in the Conservatives' favour, compared to 21 in the last election.

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 9:59 PM  

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