Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Election by Numbers

I've updated my election spreadsheet, and will be posting some riding-by-riding analysis over the next while. For now, a list of somewhat interesting numbers from the last campaign:


1: Ridings the Bloc Quebecois won by more than 3 percentage points, showing how close they came to a complete wipe out.

2: Ridings won by the Liberals without a Liberal incumbent - Charlottetown (Sean Casey) and Kingston and the Islands (Ted Hsu).

3: Number of ridings in Alberta where the Liberals finished second, down from 9 in 2008 and 19 in 2006.

9: The number of ridings where the Greens got at least 10% of the vote, down from 41 in 2008.

10: Number of provinces where Liberal and Green support dropped from 2008. The NDP increased in support everywhere except Newfoundland, with the Conservatives up everywhere except Quebec.

20: The number of ridings the Liberals won by more than 5 percentage points, down from 63 in 2008.

28: The number of ridings where turnout was down from 2008, with the largest drops coming in Bourassa, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel, and York West.

33: Number of ridings where the Liberals increased their raw vote total from 2008, with 5000+ vote gains coming in Winnipeg North, Guelph, and Central Nova. Admittedly, increasing Liberal support in Central Nova from 2008 wasn't too hard.

45: The number of seats the NDP took from the BQ. They won 17 former Liberal seats, 7 former CPC seats, and Andre Arthur's.

74: Number of ridings (out of 75) where the Bloc vote went down. Congrats to rookie MP Jean-François Fortin who increased BQ support by 649 votes in Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia.

16,283: The most votes received by an independent candidate, by James Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

26,097: The vote increase from 2008 for the NDP in Montcalm, their largest gain in the country.

57,282: The number of votes the Liberals received in Calgary, marking the first time in a long time (and perhaps ever) the Liberals got more votes in Calgary than in Edmonton (43,331).

9 Comments:

  • Interesting! A lot of jaw-droppers there.

    Since Green has shifted to becoming more of a left-wing party than an environmentalist party, do you think their poor support was actually declining popularity, or merely progressives rallying behind the NDP flag?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:42 AM  

  • That's probably part of it, but you can take your pick among the Greens' problems this election:

    1. Left wing voters rallying to Layton
    2. Dissilusioned voters rallying to Layton
    3. Focusing time and resources on May's riding
    4. Exclusion from debates
    5. Decline of environment as an issue
    6. Increase in strategic voting

    I really do think the biggest problem for them was probably May focusing on Saanich and then being excluded from the debates - that left the Greens with no real presence in 307 ridings.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:14 PM  

  • The thing with Greens: they're not 'Left'. They're pseudo-libertarians that are just a shade more yellow than the Conservatives.

    It's nice to see that they were non-existent in this election.

    The thing with the 'Left': we MUST get our act together soon or the Cons will be running this country to the end of days.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:05 PM  

  • @Anon 1:05pm: one might think that the Greens are "pseudo-libertarians that are just a shade more yellow than the Conservatives" from some of the people involved, but that's not what you find when you look closely at their written policies - well, what you can find of them, anyway, as their platform was about 98% platitudes by my estimate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:31 PM  

  • The last guy is right. They shifted left when they cleaned house between Harris and May.

    On the environment they unfailingly take left-wing solutions (higher taxes, more government, more restrictions and regulations) than right-wing solutions (property rights, market-driven).

    They also take left-wing positions on almost all social issues, like gun control, abortion, euthanasia, gay rights, women's rights - even unions.

    Check out their http://greenparty.ca/files/attachments/vision_green_2011en_1.pdf
    vision and their http://greenparty.ca/files/attachments/green-book-2011-en.pdf platform. They're left.

    - Raising corporate taxes, and cutting subsidies
    - Making personal taxes even more progressive, raising the floor
    - Minimum wage of $10/hour, 35 hour work weeks
    - Day care programs
    - Doubling CPP payouts
    - Increasing federal transfers for education
    - Reducing military spending

    May even blamed her 2008 loss on Canada's media being too "right-wing." Yeah.

    They used to be as you described, but they purged the moderates long ago. Only lefties remain.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 3:51 PM  

  • Just did some comparing of LW vs RW votes in all the elections since 1979. Here's some more interesting tidbits:

    Con vote in 2011 for the first time exceeded Reform+PC votes from 93/97/00

    Lib+NDP+Green votes in 04/06/08/11 exceeded 50% every time. During 93/97/00 the Lib+NDP vote never exceeded 50%

    Total right-wing vote has not been over 40% in an election since 1988 when it was 45%. (although it occasionally exceeds 40% in polls between elections)

    BQ vote has been on a long slow decline since 2004.

    (I am aware that the greens have a libertarian streak in them, but also aware that most voters don't see them that way)

    By Blogger Dan F, at 5:35 PM  

  • I love your posts like this. Keep it up!

    By Blogger Jae/Jennie, at 8:36 PM  

  • you forgot:

    2. Number of winning Liberal MPs who increased the vote share since the previous election. (Again, Ted Hsu is one of 2)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:25 AM  

  • Gosh, there is a lot of useful material here!

    By Anonymous www.avila-3d.com, at 4:39 AM  

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