Where are they now?

Via Full Pundit:

These, then, are the people with whom Dumont has thrown in his lot. And he might be having second thoughts after seeing what they've done to him in a promotional video for his show, Dumont 360 (snipurl.com/ qu9lj).

For 10 seconds, it shows Dumont in slow motion pointing, posing, jogging (!) and finally waving his arms. He might be the only one who can watch the video without laughing and saying, "This guy almost became premier of Quebec?"

Remember When...

...Quebec elections actually mattered? From my vantage point, this one seems about as meaningful as your typical trip to the polls in Alberta.

With that in mind, here are some random thoughts on tonight's debate, transcribed as I (kind of) watch it.

8:08 pm: Pauline Marois takes her first two times speaking to complain about Charest calling a snap election. It's a bad sign when, come the debates, you're still hung up on that and have nothing relevant to talk about.

8:09 pm: Mario Dumont came right out in his opening statement promising mixed public/private health care...and he goes right back to it again now.

8:11 pm: Charest asks Dumont where he'd cut the 2 billion he's promising to cut. Dumont...doesn't answer the question. I vaguely recall an exchange like this hurting Dumont during the last election.

8:24 pm: It's interesting to see so much talk about health care, considering how thoroughly that topic was ignored during the federal election.

8:30 pm: Dumont: "when we all go back to the legislature, our parties will work together". Well, that's assuming there are three parties that actually wind up going back to the legislature...

8:42 pm: Is it just me, or does anyone else wish Jack Layton were here so that we could hear more about the kitchen table issues facing Quebecers?

8:46 pm: Marois: "The only person here who has faced an economic slow down before is me, when I was Finance Minister". Hey! She's cribbing Bob Rae's talking points!

8:52 pm: Marois: "It's your responsibility as head of state...". I'm not sure that's a good way to frame things.

9:06 pm: Marois and Dumont go apeshit over Charest calling the early election again. Do they really want to make this their big issue?

9:13 pm: btw, interesting trivia bit. If and when Charest wins, he'll be the first Premier since Duplesis to win back-to-back-to-back terms.

9:30 pm: Federalism! Woohoo! Now it gets interesting!

Marois says the Quebec nation resolution wasn't enough. Gosh, who could have possibly foreseen that it wouldn't satisfy the separatists?

All three want more powers for Quebec. Maybe we should give it to them because I'm sure then the separatists will be satisfied, right?

Dumont, for reasons only he knows, decides to bring up smoking and drugs. This annoys me, because there's no Andre Boisclair to crack jokes about. Get it? "Crack" jokes?

Charest then delivers a fantastic sound byte where he lists everything he's managed to soak down Ottawa for since he became Premier. It's kind of depressing in one sense, but the man is absolutely winning this round.


In Conclusion

Charest looked like a Premier. Marois looked like an opposition leader. And Dumont looked like some random guy who stumbled into the opposition leader's seat by fluke. It might have played differently to a Quebec audience, but I give this one to Charest, hands down.

Meanwhile, in Quebec...

Are you now or have you ever been a Bruins fan?

Sports and politics often clash, and while the Olympics seem to be the real hot button issue of late, it’s Canada and it’s payoff time, so it’s not too surprising that pucks and politics have become intertwined yet again.

The latest round of controversy comes from Quebec. The Mayor of Montreal has demanded that local firefighters take down Habs logos painted on fire stations – by the time this one is done, this may make David Miller and Dave Bronconnier’s headaches over “support our troops” decals seem mild by comparison. We’ve already seen the CP headline “Montreal Mayor Defends Team Spirit”. I’m sure we can expect “Mayor denies ties to Zdeno Chara”, “Protesters demand Mayor wear jersey”, and “Mayor resigns amid Habs-gate scandal” headlines in the weeks ahead.

Also in hot water is Michael Fortier. The Senator appears to be far more forthcoming with his hockey opinions than with government polling reports, telling reporters he believes the New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup. Uh-oh. Certainly a valid hockey opinion, but you have to wonder how the guy ever got elected in Montreal saying things like…what? Oh right.

So, anyways, Dion hears this and decides to score some points in Quebec so he goes and chews out Fortier for not having faith in the Habs. Unfortunately, a smart assed reporter asks Dion who Montreal is playing in the first round of the playoffs and Dion hums and haws until his aid jumps in with the answer. Oops. I guess it’s not too surprising that, given his blind faith in the Liberal Quebec election readiness team, he’d also have blind faith in the Canadiens.

Stephen Harper has yet to comment on the playoffs but this time of the year is no doubt difficult for a closet Leafs fan like him. Luckily, Jim Flaherty has jumped in to let Quebecers know that, yes, the Conservative Party’s respect for Quebec goes beyond the nation resolution, and includes a love of all things bleu blanc rouge. Although it's not mentioned in the article, I can only assume that Flaherty went on to blame Dalton McGuinty for the Leafs’ missing the playoffs.

Also showing a lack of faith is Mario Dumont, who has picked the Sharks to win the Cup. That prompted the following rebuke from Jean Charest, which I can only hope (but doubt) was tongue in cheek: "Mr. Dumont will have to explain to Quebecers. ... That is unacceptable." No word on Pauline Marois’ view but one assumes she’s just pissed that the team is called “Canadiens”.

All of this and we're just a few games into the first round! And you just know Denis Coderre is already drafting his witness list for the inquiry into Shane Doan’s upcoming re-appointment as Team Canada captain. So stay tuned.

Poulet

An interesting game of chicken is developing in Quebec, with both the ADQ and PQ promising to vote against Charest's budget over the fiscal imbalance solving tax cuts. I'm sure someone will blink in this one, probably Charest, since a defeat at this point would probably mean Mario Dumont taking over as Premier.

Of course, given Harper's talking points over the past year, this begs the obvious question: Was all that money for Quebec in Flaherty's budget intended to help defeat the most federalist Premier from Quebec in Stephen Harper's lifetime?

The morning after the morning after

Jean Charest: It could have been worse for him but the man is certainly vulnerable, which means there will be intense pressure from within his own party to resign or, at the very least, rebrand. Minority governments are dicey in even the most stable political places and Quebec politics is the antithesis of stability so it’s really hard to predict how he’ll fare or if the PLQ can afford a leadership race before the next election. Because of that, I’ll predict he stays around until the next vote.

Andre Boisclair: The PQ will be having a leadership review vote this June. Given that the party has been known to knife even their most successful leaders, I can’t for the life of me imagine Boisclair surviving the vote. The timing of the vote certainly opens the door for Duceppe to jump provincially should the PQ dump Boisclair but I can’t really see why anyone would want to lead the PQ these days and, we should remember, he already turned the job down once under far better circumstances. Regardless of who their leader is, the PQ has a real identity crisis on their hands now and might not even promise a referendum in their next campaign platform.

Mario Dumont: Usually in minority governments, the Premier is the man under the microscope but I think it’s fair to say all eyes will be on Mario Dumont. He’s going to have to borrow a few muzzles from his buddy Steve to keep the wing nuts who were elected in check. He’ll also have to show that his party is credible and ready to govern. If he performs well as opposition leader, the next election is his to lose…but on the flip side, if he stumbles, the ADQ could fall back to fringe status next time since he doesn’t have the entrenched voter loyalty the other two parties command. It will be very interesting to see how much pressure he puts on Charest, in particular with respect to demanding more “autonomy”.

The Bloc Quebecois: Is in serious trouble next election. I’ll go into this a bit more as we lead up to the election since it’s not directly tied to the provincial vote but, for now, is there anyone out there who can name one issue they have to attract voters? Because I don't think an anti-scab law is going to exactly capture the imagination of the Quebecois.

Stephen Harper: I don’t necessarily buy the argument that what happens provincially translates federally…if anything provincial governments usually counter their federal counterparts. However, what the strength of the ADQ has shown is that Harper certainly has the potential to gain votes in Quebec. It shows there are Quebecers willing to vote for a party with conservative values under the right circumstances. Now, no one really knows how much of the vote was a protest vote, how much was anti-Montreal, how much was about reasonable accommodation, how much was about Dumont’s personal popularity, and how much was about Charest and Boiclair being universally hated. But the potential is there for a Quebec breakthrough.

That said, outside of Quebec, I don’t see this as a great victory for Harper. The man burned through a wad lot of political capital (and monetary capital too) to get Jean Charest re-elected and the end result was anything but a resounding victory for Harper’s ally.

Bloggers Hotstove

I was on a special post-budget edition of the Bloggers Hotstove this week with Tasha Kheirriddin and Antonio DiDomizio. If you don't want to listen to the whole thing, it can be broken into three parts:

1. Tasha makes some very smart comments on the budget.

2. Antonio and I bicker about the fiscal imbalance (which I can't for the life of me seem to pronounce properly no matter how hard I try).

3. Antonio goes on an absolutely amazing rant against Mario Dumont.


Anyways, check is out here.

Neck and Neck and Neck

Wow.

Liberals 33%
PQ 30%
ADQ 30%

First of all, I guess I was wrong, wrong, wrong about Tuesday's debate. To me, it looked like Charest had won and Dumont was nothing more than a hyperactive squirrel (think Jack Layton in the 2004 debates) but it seems Quebecers saw it differently or, at the very least, the overpass stunt paid some dividends.

So this leaves the election outcome a complete crapshot. Any of the three parties could conceivably form what will almost certainly be Quebec's first minority government in over a century.

And that is what makes today's proclamation by Andre Boisclair so interesting:

The Parti Québécois would want to hold a referendum on sovereignty even if it forms only a minority government, leader André Boisclair said Friday.

Obviously, Boisclair would never get a referendum law passed in a minority government so he's just blowing smoke up the electorate's ass. But if he maintains that his raison d'être of forming government is to hold another referendum, it becomes hard to see how Mario Dumont could justify proping up a Boisclair government. If you don't believe in the first priority of the government, how can you say you have confidence in them? Especially after the two bickered to no end on Tuesday and have very little common ground anywhere in their platforms.

What I'm getting at is, let's suppose, the numbers above hold and we get a seat breakdown similar to what Hill & Knowlton predicts (two bad assumptions to make, but, whatever):

PQ 49
PLQ 43
ADQ 33

In such a situation, it seems to me that Jean Charest could make a very strong case to stay as Premier, governing with ADQ support. He'd have won the popular vote and could promise a more stable government than Boisclair.

I'm not sure if we'd see a formal coalition, but I do think that if the ADQ does win the most seats, an ADQ/PLQ formal coalition wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Mostly because Dumont doesn't have the talent to make a full Cabinet himself but also because he could probably find common ground with Charest on a wide range of issues.

So will it be Peterson/Rae deux? Peut-être....

Le Debat

Random comments as I half pay attention to the Quebec debate (Fuddle Duddle's got the french live blog going too)...

6:12 pm: I just log on to the CPAC website now as Charest says "you need to elect the best team, I have the best team". I guess the fact that none of his candidates have been busted for genocide denial or racist comments does put him in first.

Health Care

6:14 pm: Dumont promises more private health care.

6:16 pm: Boisclair says that "Charest does not deserve a second chance". I'm not sure if Andre Boisclair is really the person who should be saying that people don't deserve second chances...

6:23 pm: Boisclair says that all Quebecers should have access to drugs. I'm sure Andre knows a guy who can help ensure that...

6:25 pm: Dumont attacks Boisclair for what "his government" did when the PQ were in power. I don't think Andre Boisclair can be held responsible for what the PQ did considering he was stoned most of the time.

Environment

6:33 pm: We all love the environment blah blah blah...this is gonna be a dull round.

6:39 pm: Ding Ding Ding! Boisclair becomes the first candidate to take a shot at Alberta during the debate, lamenting how Quebecers' tax dollars are funding the oil sands. I know! I just hate how Quebec tax dollars keep getting sent to Alberta.

6:48 pm: Let me just say that it's nice to watch a debate where we won't have to listen to hours of post-game analysis about how good everyone's French was.

Economy

6:55 pm: I'm not sure if you can look "Prime Ministerial" in a provincial debate, or even if that's a good thing, but Charest seems to be cool and in control of this one. Dumont and Boisclair also keep going after each other like rabid squirrels whenever they get the 1 on 1 debates against each other which, one imagines, also serves Charest well.

6:59 pm: Jack Layton Andre Boisclair complains about government money going to the banks and insurance companies.

7:03 pm: Dumont produces a document related to the overpass collapse...I'm not really sure what the brouhaha is all about so I guess we'll need to wait until the post game show to see what it's all about.

7:08 pm: Boisclair asks Dumont "what is the room to manoeuvre?" repeatedly. Even the translator gets fired up over it! It looks to me like Boisclair caught Dumont not knowing his facts. WHAM! BAM! You know it's bad when Andre Boisclair makes you look inexperienced and not ready to govern.

Social Programs

7:13 pm: Jean Charest takes credit for increasing the Quebec birth rate. Who does this guy think he is? Pierre Trudeau?

7:27 pm: Charest: "Mr. Dumont, why are you saying the opposite of the truth?". Charest goes on to absolutely own Dumont on the topic of school boards.

Quebec's Political Future (Let's get ready to rummmmble!)

7:32 pm: Boisclair says that Charest accepted Trudeau's constitution. Huh? Charest was, like, 24 then. (hat tip to Antonio on that one)

7:35 pm: Boisclair doesn't answer what his "Plan B" is if a referendum fails. Dumont doesn't answer what constitutional powers he wants. They go back and forth on this for about three minutes.

7:40 pm: Boisclair attacks Charest for not demanding enough from Ottawa. Charest then lists everything he's squeezed out of Martin and Harper over the last four years.

7:43 pm: Boisclair compares the fiscal imbalance to giving a blood bank to a vampire. I'm not really sure how the metaphor works but I'm glad he didn't say "giving crack to an addict".

7:47 pm: Dumont says that the Counsel of Federation is a playground for Charest to go to Niagara Falls, Edmonton, and St. John's. Believe me - I live in Edmonton - and no one would consider a trip to Edmonton as a junket or perk.


So, all in all, I'd say Charest did what he had to do - he looked the most like a leader out there. Dumont really fizzled in my opinion. Of course, I'm sure people in Quebec may get a completely different impression from it so it'll be interesting to see tomorrow's media spin.


UPDATE: It's a small sample, but the overnight polls seem to have Dumont taking the debate. Go figure. (H/T Nottawa)