I love Canada...so long as I run it

Justin Trudeau raised a bit of a stir last week with his comments that he'd consider supporting Quebec separatism if the Harper government took Canada too far to the right. Most have already weighed in on this, and my opinion comes closest to Andrew Coyne's:

I don’t doubt that some of the things the Harper government has done have been unpopular in Quebec. Forgive me if I suggest that is not enough, in itself, to condemn them. Every government does things that some people like, and some people don’t. That some of the latter group are in Quebec does not elevate the matter into a national emergency, as if it were impermissible that Quebecers could be dissatisfied: a guarantee given to no other section of the country. The only reason it occurs to people to suggest it is because of the threat of separatism, and the only reason the threat has any currency is because of the willingness of others to indulge, or indeed validate it.

For Justin, of all people, to be among their number is especially unfortunate. But as I say, Justin isn’t really the problem.

I'm a fan of Justin, but these comments show a high level of immaturity - I don't like the government, so I'm leaving. I would add that you saw quite a bit of this in Western Canada too after the 2004 election, and it was no more appealing there.

Obviously Justin Trudeau isn't the only Quebecer, or the only politician, who feels this way. Given his name, his comments will only serve to help propagate this "my way or I'm hitting the highway" feeling, which isn't part of a healthy political dialogue.

An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership

It's been six months since I last looked in on the field of possible Liberal leadership candidates, and that's because, well, there's not much to report. Apart from speculation surrounding the interim leader, there's been little chatter in the media, on blogs, or in Liberal circles.

However, the Liberal Biennial convention may have marked the unofficial starting gun on the leadership race, as names were floated around the convention hall and in hospitality suites. Sure, most of the likely contenders say they're not interested, but that's unlikely to quiet the rumours.

Today, a look at the ten most talked about names. Tomorrow, a look at some of the sleeper candidates.



Bob Rae

The case for Rae: Even Rae's harshest critics within the Liberal Party acknowledge he's done a bang-up job as interim leader and he's the best politician we have.

Is he a contender? If Rae runs, he'd have an impressive organization behind him. Do I think he'll be the next leader? No, not really. As Rae himself said in May, the party is likely to look to a new generation of leadership. But if you put $10 on Rae and asked me to put $10 on just one other name, I'd have a hard time thinking of someone who is more likely to be the next leader.

Why he isn't running: "I'm focusing on the job of interim leader". Plus, he made a deal with his wife.



Dominic LeBlanc

The case for LeBlanc: Young, experienced, bilingual. Deep Liberal roots, but still a fresh face for most.

Is he a contender? If I had to put a name down on that $10 bet I mentioned above, it would likely be on Dominic. He's got pieces of an organization left over from his 14 minute leadership run in 2008, and seems to be the only "high profile" candidate who has not categorically ruled out running.

Will he run? LeBlanc was bullish after the election, but has been quiet since then.



Justin Trudeau

The case for Trudeau: He's a political superstar, who has the potential to get Liberals and Canadians excited about the Liberal Party.

Is he a contender? If he runs, he will likely win.

Why he isn't running: "My kids are 2 and 4 and I barely see them enough as it is."



Dalton McGuinty

The case for Dalton: He's the most successful Liberal in Canada right now. The man has grown immensely as a politician over the past decade.

Is he a contender? Given the name recognition and organization he'd bring to the table, he'd likely be the frontrunner.

Why he isn't running: He has an ok day job right now. And he "wants to remain married".



David McGuinty

The case for David: If you can't get Dalton, he'd be the next best thing. I likely wouldn't use that slogan on a button but, like his brother, David is experienced, rarely missteps, and has grown as a politician over the years.

Is he a contender? He'd have a better chance if he'd left Ottawa more than once or twice since being elected as an MP, but he's a capable politician and the McGuinty organization should not be underestimated.

Will he run? He's "mulling" a run.



Marc Garneau

The case for Garneau: Bilingual, respected...and he was a freaking astronaut! How cool is that!

Is he a contender? If you buy into the "alternance" theory, it might be a francophone's turn. At the very least, Garneau would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media.

Will he run? You may have missed it if you weren't reading the political pages on December 25th, but Garneau is considering a run.



Scott Brison

The case for Brison: Like Rae, Brison is a talented politician with the gift of the gab - well spoken, with a quick wit.

Is he a contender? His campaign struggled in 2006, but Brison's pitch should find a receptive audience this time.

Why he isn't running: “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces”



Denis Coderre

The case for Coderre: I'm really not the person who should be answering this.

Is he a contender? Coderre is one of the best organizers in the Liberal Party. I wouldn't expect him to win, but he could very easily carry Quebec.

Will he run? Coderre is considering a run for LPC leadership, Mayor of Montreal, or coach of the Montreal Canadiens.



Martin Cauchon

The case for Cauchon: Has an impressive track record, is well spoken, and could be the key to winning back Quebec.

Is he a contender? Cauchon has been thinking about running for a decade, so I suspect he'd be able to put a strong team together, even outside Quebec.

Will he run? He hosted a hospitality suite at the convention. Of course, we have yet to hear publicly on the question of his candidacy from Cauchon, or his wife.



Gerard Kennedy

The case for Kennedy: I've made the case before, and I'd argue Kennedy was ahead of the game when he talked about the Liberal Party needing to rebuild itself, back in 2006.

Is he a contender? Well, the party has been moving down the "order of finish" list from 2006 (from Dion to Ignatieff to Rae...), so I guess it's his turn.

Will he run? He hasn't closed the door.

In leadership news...

...Justin Trudeau won't run, but Thomas Mulcair will.

So this sets us up for a Mulcair-Topp battle for Stornoway. All early indications are that Topp and Mulcair will play nice with each other, while their supporters mercilessly smear each other in the press.

After watching Liberals do this very thing for years, I'd caution against this war-by-proxy. You'd be amazed how many people pick a candidate to support just because someone else's supporters come across as complete assholes. By sending their supporters out to do the dirty work, Mulcair and Topp are opening the door for someone like with Paul Dewar or Nathan Cullen to come "up the middle" and win.

I know it sounds unlikely now given all the media attention on Topp and Mulcair, but this is a long race, and things like this have been known to happen before.

The ever shrinking Liberal shadow

There's only so much you can read into the critic portfolios assigned to the third party in the house - especially when numbers dictate that everyone gets something. But the Liberal shadow cabinet deserves a bit of attention, if only because it marks Bob Rae's first significant public decision as interim leader.

Among the notables:

-Ralph Goodale is an obvious and deserving choice as Deputy Leader, given his experience and the need to grow the party west of Mississauga.

-In Rae's most notable and encouraging move, Stephane Dion winds up with intergovernmental affairs and democratic reform. True, these are not high profile posts in the Harper government (quick quiz: name the intergovernmental affairs minister), but between the NDP's murky position on the Clarity Act and the number of Premiers jumping into the Senate reform frenzy, this is an important role, and one Dion is perfectly suited for.

-On the leadership front, Dominic LeBlanc takes over from Rae as Foreign Affairs critic, while Justin Trudeau settles for sport, youth, and post-secondary education. Score one for Dom.

-Scott Brison is back in Finance, a critic role he is familiar with and performs well at.

-Hedy Fry and Geoff Regan get big promotions to Health Care and Industry.

Ridings to Watch - Quebec

I've already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. Now, a look at Quebec.

At the start of the campaign, the pundits confidently predicted there would be no surprises in Quebec. Well...surprise! The NDP vote has tripled, and there are probably over 50 ridings in play tomorrow. I'm not going to profile each of them - instead, a look at some bellwether ridings for each party.

I don't profess to be an expert on Quebec politics, so I invite those of you more familiar with the on-the-ground situation in La Belle Province to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions.


The Liberals

It seems almost certain the Liberals will lose seats in Quebec, but it's hard to predict just how bad it will get. And it's possible the Bloc's collapse will actually help them in some ridings. That said, we can likely write the Liberals off outside the island of Montreal, with the NDP poised to pick up Hull and Brossard.

Within Montreal itself, I think it's important to recognize the failings of seat projection models - mine included. For example, my model gives Denis Coderre just a 60% chance of holding Bourassa against the orange wave. Say what you will about Denis, and I've said plenty, but the man has been an MP for 14 years, he has name recognition, and he has a powerful organization. Even though I build incumbency into the model, not all incumbents are created equal.

The same is true of challengers. My model gives the young Trudeau only a one-in-three chance of holding Papineau, but there were several reports the NDP laid down their arms in Papineau at the start of the campaign, in exchange for the Bloc doing likewise in Outremont. If I were putting money on it, I'd say Justin holds.

There are 10 other Liberal seats I haven't already mentioned. Some of them, like Mount Royal and St. Laurent-Cartierville, are locks both using my projection model and common sense. The ones to watch on election night are seats like Westmount Ville-Marie and Laval-Les Iles.


The Conservatives

Let's start with the bad news for Stephen Harper. Lawrence Cannon could be falling on Monday - my model gives him just a one-in-ten chance of holding Pontiac, and that's more charitable than most other seat projections which have already written him off completely. In fact, the only Conservative MP my model predicts as being completely safe is Maxime Bernier. Suffice to say, that's probably Harper's nightmare scenario.

My model has the Tories in trouble in Beauport and Charlesbourg, and local riding CROP polls have confirmed that. Beyond that, my model gives them even odds in most of their other seats - however, due to the strength of their organization, I'd expect them to hold most of these and come out of Quebec with around 6-8 seats tomorrow. After all, as Larry Smith has reminded us, there are benefits in having a seat at the Cabinet table. These benefits just aren't enough to get Larry Smith elected.


NDP-Bloc Races

In the battle to form the official opposition, this is what it all comes down to. My projection model pegs the NDP's Quebec seat total at 33 to 58 seats but, as I said yesterday, if you're an NDP candidate finding yourself in Vegas this weekend, I'd bet on the low end of that. Quite simply, the NDP have few volunteers and a limited ground game outside of the 3-6 ridings they were targeting at the start of the campaign. Yes, many seats will fall because of the orange wave, but with place holder candidates, next to no canvassing, and no GOTV, I expect many of the close races to break against them.

So let's look at some of the bellwether ridings. If the NDP can't win ridings like Saint Lambert, Laval, and Gaspesie, they're in trouble - they may not even crack 15 or 20 seats in the province.

Sorting their ridings by probability of victory in my model, the seats to watch (around 30th on the list) are ridings like Longueil, Shefford, Ahuntsic, Saint-Bruno, and Quebec. If seats like those go orange, then Jack is likely on his way to Stornoway.

Another good indicator of how the night goes will be the early returns from Berthier-Maskinongé, home of the aforementioned Vegas candidate. A recent poll gave her 29% in the riding, placing her just 7 points back of the Bloc incumbent. That's about 9 points below where I project she should be, but given the media scrutiny, we can consider that the extreme example. So if the NDP come in over 30% there, they could be in for a very good night.

2010 in Pictures: The Year That Was

2010 in Pictures: Hello Sports Fans

Conservatives themselves doubt Harper's judgement. How can we trust him?

More info on the top-secret Conservative ads:

MONTREAL — There's a surprising new star making a cameo appearance in Conservative ads attacking Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff: his name is Justin Trudeau.

French-language TV ads that have begun airing in Quebec show the rookie MP blasting a few volleys of friendly fire at his leader.

The ads include clips from an interview Trudeau did during the 2006 Liberal leadership race.

"Ignatieff, he's a little all over the place sometimes," Trudeau says in the spot, in a clip drawn from a 2006 TV interview.

"He says this, he says that - he contradicts himself."

Trudeau then delivers this little parting shot: "For me, he's not someone with... maybe he has the intelligence, but maybe not the wisdom required."

The ad's narrator ends the spot by asking viewers: "Liberals themselves doubt (Ignatieff's) judgment. How can we trust him?"

So, some guy who wasn't an MP and supported another guy in a leadership race Ignatieff lost - three years ago - had some tame criticism of the front-runner. Well, colour me shocked. If you're that desperate Tory war room, I hear Bob Rae used to berate Iggy when they were college roommates for not taking out the trash.

So, if those quotes are fair game, let's see what the Minister of Industry has to say about Harper:

OTTAWA (CP) - Tony Clement painted Stephen Harper as a divisive, unelectable Conservative leader Wednesday in a televised debate notable for the absence of high-profile candidate Belinda Stronach.

Clement, the former Ontario health minister and acknowledged underdog in the three-way race, was clearly on the offensive against Harper. He suggested the former Canadian Alliance leader will be unable to unify Conservatives and draw Canadians outside the party to its fold.

"Stephen . . . you've been on the record as a wall-builder. I want to be on the record as a bridge-builder."

Clement then accused the Calgary-based MP of proposing to build a firewall around Alberta, of writing off electoral prospects in Quebec and of badmouthing Atlantic Canadians.

Vancouver Interviews: Justin Trudeau on Youth in Politics

As part of my ongoing series, bad production value interviews, today I'm pleased to present Justin Trudeau...with set-up noise in the background.

Regardless, the young political superstar was kind enough to chat with me about youth involvement in politics during May's Liberal leadership convention. Here's what he had to say:



See also: Ralph Goodale on Western Alienation, Scott Brison on the economy, Carolyn Bennett on the Change Commission

Star Candidates

For the first time in recent memory, there's good news for the Liberals in Quebec, with Marc Garneau agreeing to run in Westmount - this after a fairly public feud between him and Dion last month.

There was good news for another Quebecois star candidate as well today, as Justin Trudeau and Sophie Gregoire gave birth to Xavier James Trudeau. And, wouldn't you know it, little Xavier shares a birthday with his grandfather. Since it's never too early to start planning these things, may I suggest the following slogan for the 2059 Liberal leadership race: "Mark an X for Xavier".

Won't the real Gord Brown please stand up, please stand up, please stand up...

-One of my pet political interests is finding leadership races I could win by signing up a rec league soccer team. Last year, I reported on the PEI NDP race, won in a close 29 to 19 vote. This week, the Nova Scotia Green Party held their AGM and, in a tight three-way race, Ken McGowan emerged the winner in a 32 to 20 to 9 nail bitter.


-Apparently the oilsands will be exempt from several of the clean air regulations...you can bet the opposition parties are just going to love this.


-Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. UPDATE: And Lawrence Cannon gets hit too...


-Leeds-Grenville Conservative MP Gord Brown (no doubt busy campaigning for Tony Blair's job), has been caught Jaffering a constituent.


-Didn't take long for Justin Trudeau to attract controversy.


-After going 7 for 8 and 3 for 4 in the first two rounds, I'll take my chances and bet against Detroit for the third straight round. Anaheim versus Buffalo is your final.

Just In

Justin Trudeau has squeaked out the Papineau Liberal nomination with a first ballot win.

Good news in my opinion. The LPC could use some young blood, and Justin's star power makes up for the loss of Belinda. Best of all, it gets a true hard line federalist in the Quebec caucus (if he wins...).

As for his critics, the man had to work for his nomination which is the way it should be.


UPDATE: Antonio's predictions may have been a tad off, but he does have the final vote tally:

Trudeau 640
Deros 327
Giordano 217

Nomination Watch

In a shocking move which no one saw coming, it's been announced that Justin Trudeau will run in the next election for the Liberals. He's settled on Pierre Pettigrew's old riding of Papineau, currently held by the BQ.

And with Bill Graham's official announcement that he won't run again, the feeding frenzy for one of the country's safest Liberal seats is in full swing. ABC has the rundown on the rumours, as Bob Rae targets the riding. I got the following e-mail from one of the other aspirants, Meredith Cartwright, which I presume she has sent to virtually every Liberal in the country:

Toronto Centre's Member of Parliament, The Honourable Bill Graham, may retire. Mr. Dion is now under pressure from the party elites to facilitate the nomination of one of their guys into Toronto Centre, including a non-resident male, or conversely to appoint a non-resident female candidate into Toronto Centre.

Meredith Cartwright is working relentlessly to prepare for and win an open nomination in Toronto Centre, where she will be supported by the diverse communities that comprise Toronto Centre.

The nomination process is the point at which most women are shut down and the point at which a leader's support makes a crucial difference.

Please click the below to sign our online petition and urge the liberal leader, now is the time to bring more women and th! is woman to Parliament!

Click here to support Meredith