An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership

It's been six months since I last looked in on the field of possible Liberal leadership candidates, and that's because, well, there's not much to report. Apart from speculation surrounding the interim leader, there's been little chatter in the media, on blogs, or in Liberal circles.

However, the Liberal Biennial convention may have marked the unofficial starting gun on the leadership race, as names were floated around the convention hall and in hospitality suites. Sure, most of the likely contenders say they're not interested, but that's unlikely to quiet the rumours.

Today, a look at the ten most talked about names. Tomorrow, a look at some of the sleeper candidates.



Bob Rae

The case for Rae: Even Rae's harshest critics within the Liberal Party acknowledge he's done a bang-up job as interim leader and he's the best politician we have.

Is he a contender? If Rae runs, he'd have an impressive organization behind him. Do I think he'll be the next leader? No, not really. As Rae himself said in May, the party is likely to look to a new generation of leadership. But if you put $10 on Rae and asked me to put $10 on just one other name, I'd have a hard time thinking of someone who is more likely to be the next leader.

Why he isn't running: "I'm focusing on the job of interim leader". Plus, he made a deal with his wife.



Dominic LeBlanc

The case for LeBlanc: Young, experienced, bilingual. Deep Liberal roots, but still a fresh face for most.

Is he a contender? If I had to put a name down on that $10 bet I mentioned above, it would likely be on Dominic. He's got pieces of an organization left over from his 14 minute leadership run in 2008, and seems to be the only "high profile" candidate who has not categorically ruled out running.

Will he run? LeBlanc was bullish after the election, but has been quiet since then.



Justin Trudeau

The case for Trudeau: He's a political superstar, who has the potential to get Liberals and Canadians excited about the Liberal Party.

Is he a contender? If he runs, he will likely win.

Why he isn't running: "My kids are 2 and 4 and I barely see them enough as it is."



Dalton McGuinty

The case for Dalton: He's the most successful Liberal in Canada right now. The man has grown immensely as a politician over the past decade.

Is he a contender? Given the name recognition and organization he'd bring to the table, he'd likely be the frontrunner.

Why he isn't running: He has an ok day job right now. And he "wants to remain married".



David McGuinty

The case for David: If you can't get Dalton, he'd be the next best thing. I likely wouldn't use that slogan on a button but, like his brother, David is experienced, rarely missteps, and has grown as a politician over the years.

Is he a contender? He'd have a better chance if he'd left Ottawa more than once or twice since being elected as an MP, but he's a capable politician and the McGuinty organization should not be underestimated.

Will he run? He's "mulling" a run.



Marc Garneau

The case for Garneau: Bilingual, respected...and he was a freaking astronaut! How cool is that!

Is he a contender? If you buy into the "alternance" theory, it might be a francophone's turn. At the very least, Garneau would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media.

Will he run? You may have missed it if you weren't reading the political pages on December 25th, but Garneau is considering a run.



Scott Brison

The case for Brison: Like Rae, Brison is a talented politician with the gift of the gab - well spoken, with a quick wit.

Is he a contender? His campaign struggled in 2006, but Brison's pitch should find a receptive audience this time.

Why he isn't running: “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces”



Denis Coderre

The case for Coderre: I'm really not the person who should be answering this.

Is he a contender? Coderre is one of the best organizers in the Liberal Party. I wouldn't expect him to win, but he could very easily carry Quebec.

Will he run? Coderre is considering a run for LPC leadership, Mayor of Montreal, or coach of the Montreal Canadiens.



Martin Cauchon

The case for Cauchon: Has an impressive track record, is well spoken, and could be the key to winning back Quebec.

Is he a contender? Cauchon has been thinking about running for a decade, so I suspect he'd be able to put a strong team together, even outside Quebec.

Will he run? He hosted a hospitality suite at the convention. Of course, we have yet to hear publicly on the question of his candidacy from Cauchon, or his wife.



Gerard Kennedy

The case for Kennedy: I've made the case before, and I'd argue Kennedy was ahead of the game when he talked about the Liberal Party needing to rebuild itself, back in 2006.

Is he a contender? Well, the party has been moving down the "order of finish" list from 2006 (from Dion to Ignatieff to Rae...), so I guess it's his turn.

Will he run? He hasn't closed the door.

In the interim

The Liberal Party will name an interim leader this Wednesday. While it may not be the most important decision to make over the next four years, it still deserves careful consideration. All indications are the permanent leader won't be chosen for at least another year - and maybe two - so the interim leader will be the face of the Liberal Party as it regroups and rebuilds, all the while trying to remain relevant.

Sadly, we find ourselves with only 34 candidates for the job, so it's actually fairly simple to write a short list.

For starters, no party's interim leader should ever be running to be permanent leader, except in extraordinary circumstances, such as war, disaster, or the national executive wanting Michael Ignatieff in charge. The reasons for this should be self evident, and Rob Silver spells them out here. I'd also add that any hint the "party elites" giving an unfair advantage to a chosen candidate would not exactly be in the spirit of engaging and unifying the membership.

So that likely means LeBlanc and Trudeau will take a pass, while they consider their options.

It's been argued the interim leader should be bilingual. Now, there are degrees of bilingualism, but I generally agree with this sentiment. Ralph Goodale would likely be the best candidate if not for ce petit problème. Similarly, picking Wayne Easter would have been a nice thank you to PEI, which now makes up 9% of the Liberal caucus, but he's a one language man himself.

Even with just those two small criteria, the field narrows considerably. Such are the problems of losing over half your MPs. From what I gather, the top contenders for the job are:

Stephane Dion: He's not being seriously considered, but I include his name here since someone will surely mention him in the comments section. Going to Dion would be somewhat fitting, but we all know the caucus, party, and country would never go for it. At the very least, we need to make the Tories produce some new attack ads.

Scott Brison: Brison is young, charismatic, and knows how to deliver a sound byte. Of course, for those very reasons, he may still be mulling over a run for the top job.

Marc Garneau: He may not be as seasoned politically as the other candidates, but he has name recognition. On the downside, if you think spending time outside the country is bad, just imagine what the Tories will have to say about Garneau spending time outside the planet.

David McGuinty: Would be a strong candidate, but his last name certainly complicates things with an Ontario provincial election on deck.

John McCallum: Somewhat more experienced for the job than the others, by virtue of having been named interim Liberal leader in 2008 by CTV.

Frank McKenna: Yes, I know he doesn't have a seat. But still, wouldn't he be a great selection!

The above would all make fine leaders, and lesser known MPs like Geoff Regan, Kirsty Duncan, or Joyce Murray also deserve consideration. And hey, there's always Jimmy K, though it would mean an end to his leadership aspirations.

But, above all these names, the one that stands out is Bob Rae. Rae is experienced, respected, bilingual, and well spoken. He would keep the Liberals in the headlines and would keep them relevant. It's hard to imagine a better candidate for the job.

Of course, for those reasons, Rae might very well decide to run for the top job. However, he'll be 66 by the time the next election rolls around, and my read of the landscape is that the Liberal membership is looking towards the next generation and a long-term rebuilt. I'm certainly in no position to tell Bob Rae he can't run for leader, and he would make a fine candidate. But a year or two as the interim leader would be an exciting challenge for a man who has accomplished so much over his career.

So it seems very much like a win-win. The caveat I'd place on it is that Rae must recognize this is a caretaker position. So that means no talk of leadership and no talk of merger.

But if he's willing to play ball under those conditions, I can't think of a better candidate for the job.

Michael Ignatieff Recalibrates

The Liberals released their new critic lineup for the fall. Among the highlights:

-Ralph Goodale becomes Deputy Leader. Some will see this as a slight to Rae who had been the de facto Number 2, but I think it's a welcome move - Goodale is experienced, competent, respected, and it sends the right message to the West.

-Guess who's back, back again...'Cause we need a little controversy, 'Cause it feels so empty without Denis. Yes, Denis Coderre is back after his one year time out. He gets Natural Resources, squaring him up against fellow Quebecer Christian Paradis.

-David McGuinty becomes House Leader. So it's up to David McGuinty and John Baird to make parliament work. Shall I cue up the election speculation or do you want to?

-In the "demotion" file, Carolyn Bennett gets knocked down from Health to Democratic Renewal (which is actually a good fit for her). Rodger Cuzner is out as whip - perhaps in response to this spring's "we look like fools" debacle.

-Scott Brison is back as the Finance Critic, taking over from John McCallum. It seems like the Liberals keep swapping between the two of them for that portfolio. While McCallum certainly has the credentials for the job, Brison's the better salesman and that's what the job is really all about when you're in opposition.

-Ujjal Dosanjh gets health - he's the former Health Minister so this is a good fit.

-Gerard Kennedy moves to the environment. Martha Hall Findlay to International Trade. Marlene Jennings to Justice. Dominic LeBlanc takes over in Defence, a sign the Liberals may try to make hay out of the fighter jet purchase.

-Justin Trudeau replaces Bevilacqua in immigration. Given Justin's riding and leadership ambitions, he'll certainly be pleased.

-Pablo Rodriguez stays in. Ruby Dhalla is still nowhere to be found.

The Field Narrows

From the initial field of a few hundred thousand rumoured candidates, it’s looking more and more like this will be a three-man race (c’mon Paul Hellyer – it’s not too late to get a team together!). The latest MPs to offer up the “thanks, but no thanks” are Martha Hall Findlay, Denis Coderre, David McGuinty, and Gerard Kennedy. Given the amount of virtual ink I spilled pushing Kennedy’s candidacy in 2006, I feel I should offer up a comment or two on his decision.

Although it’s not what first drew me to him, I think Gerard is one of the people in the Liberal Party who really “gets it”. He made “immigrant success” a key plank of his last leadership campaign, long before people realized that Jason Kenney was systematically winning over support from this traditional Liberal demographic. He was the only Liberal candidate last time who talked about party renewal and offered ideas to re-engage the base. Having been involved with Liberal politics in Alberta, he’s also one of the few MPs in the party who understands we can’t keep writing off the West…having talked with him about this a few times, I think he gets this better than a lot of western Liberals.

And while I know some will disagree with me, I think Gerard was bang on with his handling of the Afghanistan and Quebec nation grenades that were launched into the campaign last time.

I know he has his detractors inside the party and is far from a perfect politician but, despite that, he was one of only four to win new Liberal seats last election, and he didn’t even need a Danny Williams assist to do it.

Now, with all that said, I think Gerard was smart to take a pass (“know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em” yada yada yada). He’s a good candidate now and I would have supported him again if he ran, but he’ll be a better candidate in the future with some federal experience and a few more French lessons under his belt. I also think he can do a lot of good on the party renewal front from outside the race and I hope he directs his energy in that direction.

The Race for Stornoway 2

A preliminary look at the field...


THE ROOMATES

Rae and Ignatieff are the two names on everyone's lips, yet again. Both are better candidates than they were last time, when Iggy's newness to politics and Bob's newness to the Liberal Party were major turn-offs. Still, the anybody but Ragnatieff sentiment carried the day two years ago and it remains to be seen if opinions towards these two polarizing figures has shifted.


THE CLASS OF 2003

I'm going to predict none of the other candidates from the last "Race for Stornoway" run this time. Kennedy and Hall Findlay are both young and have made names for themselves in the party - unless they win, there's nothing to be gained for either of them. Brison has already said he won't run and I can't imagine Volpe wanting to give it another go, even if many of his former
supporters are now old enough to vote. Dryden might be tempted to run in an effort to raise issues, but he still has debts to pay off. Bevilacqua, Bennett, and Fry couldn't find enough support to make it to Montreal last time, so unless Carolyn Bennett wants to be the token female, I doubt any of them will make it to Vancouver.


THE 90S GANG

The early focus of the last leadership race was on the big names who took a pass - McKenna, Manley, Cauchon, Rock, Tobin... It would surprise me to see anyone in this crowd jump in when they skipped the more winnable race, but if McKenna or Manley do enter, the entire dynamic of this leadership race would change.


YOUNG GUNS

Dominic Leblanc seems like a lock to run at this point - worst case, he positions himself for "next time" and best case he comes up the middle to win. Justin Trudeau has wisely taken a pass...with his age and the speed the Liberals are chewing through leaders, he can likely sit out the next 4 or 5 leadership races. Will Ruby Dhalla toss her hat in or will she once again take a prominent role on the Ignatieff campaign? Will David McGuinty try and one up his brother?


AND ALL THE REST

Denis Coderre is musing about running as the voice out of Quebec, with Ujjal Dosanjh's name being tossed around as a Western candidate. If you want to wildly toss out other long-shot names from the west, I suppose there's always Goodale, Christy Clark, Carole Taylor, Anne McLellan, Glen Murray, Tina Keeper, or David Orchard. Of course, who knows which of the 75 current MPs think they have the right stuff...or which defeated MPs want to get back in the game. And, heck, Martha turned her run into a safe Toronto seat so perhaps someone else will try and turn that trick.

One thing is for certain - the speculation will be fierce. When the dust settles, I'm gonna say we have 5 candidates, with only three having a legit shot at the crown. But I wouldn't at all be surprised to be surprised. Nunziata anyone?

Tuesday Tid-bits

-This is kind of cool - Stephane Dion blogging from Bali.


-Radwanski is right on the money here. There needs to be some sort of degree of presumed innocence among Parliamentarians because, if scantilycladwomangate has taught us anything, the wild accusations being tossed around are starting to get way out of hand.


-Also via AR, comes Pat Martin's latest media stunt:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
DECEMBER 11, 2007

SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN…

…with toxic toy consumer tips for Canadian parents

Oh, please, somebody get this up on Youtube because:

a) I assume Pat Martin will be the one dressed as Santa.
b) This is going to be even more awkwardly entertaining than the puppets press conference this spring.


-From this week's Hill Times:

An online Angus-Reid poll released last month of opposition party leaders showed that 34 per cent of Canadians think that Mr. Layton would make a good Prime Minister of Canada compared to Mr. Dion who had 23 per cent support and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May who had 14 per cent support.

But Liberal MP David McGuinty (Ottawa South, Ont.) said he does not put any stock in polls in between elections. "[If] Mother Theresa were alive, she [would] have obviously [had] the highest rankings too. I don't believe it for a second. When people walk into a ballot box in the next federal election, there will be many questions on their minds.

By my reading, David McGuinty is either comparing Jack Layton to mother Theresa, or implying that Mother Theresa's support levels would dry up during an election campaign. While there is probably some truth to the later statement, I have my doubts that even mother Theresa has the political sense to nix a Santa Claus press conference.