An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership

It's been six months since I last looked in on the field of possible Liberal leadership candidates, and that's because, well, there's not much to report. Apart from speculation surrounding the interim leader, there's been little chatter in the media, on blogs, or in Liberal circles.

However, the Liberal Biennial convention may have marked the unofficial starting gun on the leadership race, as names were floated around the convention hall and in hospitality suites. Sure, most of the likely contenders say they're not interested, but that's unlikely to quiet the rumours.

Today, a look at the ten most talked about names. Tomorrow, a look at some of the sleeper candidates.



Bob Rae

The case for Rae: Even Rae's harshest critics within the Liberal Party acknowledge he's done a bang-up job as interim leader and he's the best politician we have.

Is he a contender? If Rae runs, he'd have an impressive organization behind him. Do I think he'll be the next leader? No, not really. As Rae himself said in May, the party is likely to look to a new generation of leadership. But if you put $10 on Rae and asked me to put $10 on just one other name, I'd have a hard time thinking of someone who is more likely to be the next leader.

Why he isn't running: "I'm focusing on the job of interim leader". Plus, he made a deal with his wife.



Dominic LeBlanc

The case for LeBlanc: Young, experienced, bilingual. Deep Liberal roots, but still a fresh face for most.

Is he a contender? If I had to put a name down on that $10 bet I mentioned above, it would likely be on Dominic. He's got pieces of an organization left over from his 14 minute leadership run in 2008, and seems to be the only "high profile" candidate who has not categorically ruled out running.

Will he run? LeBlanc was bullish after the election, but has been quiet since then.



Justin Trudeau

The case for Trudeau: He's a political superstar, who has the potential to get Liberals and Canadians excited about the Liberal Party.

Is he a contender? If he runs, he will likely win.

Why he isn't running: "My kids are 2 and 4 and I barely see them enough as it is."



Dalton McGuinty

The case for Dalton: He's the most successful Liberal in Canada right now. The man has grown immensely as a politician over the past decade.

Is he a contender? Given the name recognition and organization he'd bring to the table, he'd likely be the frontrunner.

Why he isn't running: He has an ok day job right now. And he "wants to remain married".



David McGuinty

The case for David: If you can't get Dalton, he'd be the next best thing. I likely wouldn't use that slogan on a button but, like his brother, David is experienced, rarely missteps, and has grown as a politician over the years.

Is he a contender? He'd have a better chance if he'd left Ottawa more than once or twice since being elected as an MP, but he's a capable politician and the McGuinty organization should not be underestimated.

Will he run? He's "mulling" a run.



Marc Garneau

The case for Garneau: Bilingual, respected...and he was a freaking astronaut! How cool is that!

Is he a contender? If you buy into the "alternance" theory, it might be a francophone's turn. At the very least, Garneau would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media.

Will he run? You may have missed it if you weren't reading the political pages on December 25th, but Garneau is considering a run.



Scott Brison

The case for Brison: Like Rae, Brison is a talented politician with the gift of the gab - well spoken, with a quick wit.

Is he a contender? His campaign struggled in 2006, but Brison's pitch should find a receptive audience this time.

Why he isn't running: “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces”



Denis Coderre

The case for Coderre: I'm really not the person who should be answering this.

Is he a contender? Coderre is one of the best organizers in the Liberal Party. I wouldn't expect him to win, but he could very easily carry Quebec.

Will he run? Coderre is considering a run for LPC leadership, Mayor of Montreal, or coach of the Montreal Canadiens.



Martin Cauchon

The case for Cauchon: Has an impressive track record, is well spoken, and could be the key to winning back Quebec.

Is he a contender? Cauchon has been thinking about running for a decade, so I suspect he'd be able to put a strong team together, even outside Quebec.

Will he run? He hosted a hospitality suite at the convention. Of course, we have yet to hear publicly on the question of his candidacy from Cauchon, or his wife.



Gerard Kennedy

The case for Kennedy: I've made the case before, and I'd argue Kennedy was ahead of the game when he talked about the Liberal Party needing to rebuild itself, back in 2006.

Is he a contender? Well, the party has been moving down the "order of finish" list from 2006 (from Dion to Ignatieff to Rae...), so I guess it's his turn.

Will he run? He hasn't closed the door.

The ever shrinking Liberal shadow

There's only so much you can read into the critic portfolios assigned to the third party in the house - especially when numbers dictate that everyone gets something. But the Liberal shadow cabinet deserves a bit of attention, if only because it marks Bob Rae's first significant public decision as interim leader.

Among the notables:

-Ralph Goodale is an obvious and deserving choice as Deputy Leader, given his experience and the need to grow the party west of Mississauga.

-In Rae's most notable and encouraging move, Stephane Dion winds up with intergovernmental affairs and democratic reform. True, these are not high profile posts in the Harper government (quick quiz: name the intergovernmental affairs minister), but between the NDP's murky position on the Clarity Act and the number of Premiers jumping into the Senate reform frenzy, this is an important role, and one Dion is perfectly suited for.

-On the leadership front, Dominic LeBlanc takes over from Rae as Foreign Affairs critic, while Justin Trudeau settles for sport, youth, and post-secondary education. Score one for Dom.

-Scott Brison is back in Finance, a critic role he is familiar with and performs well at.

-Hedy Fry and Geoff Regan get big promotions to Health Care and Industry.

Liberal Leadership Race

The Race Victory March for Stornoway Sussex Stornoway

Dion Steps Down

Frank McKenna: Will he or won’t he? (Spoiler alert: He won’t)

Possible Candidates

Chose Vancouver

8 Simple Rules of Liberal Leadership Races

Manley Out

Kennedy Out

Liberal leadership debate recap

In Support of Dominic LeBlanc

Bob Rae Blogger Chat

Ignatieff Crowned

The Race for Stornoway...err, 24 Sussex...err...Stornoway...

Now that we've taken a break from that horrifying experiment in parliamentary democracy, we can shift our attention back to another horrifying experiment in democracy - the Liberal Leadership Race.

Some are now suggesting that this race should be sped up and I think that would be a mistake - we're picking the man to lead us for the next decade, there's no need to rush into a decision. If anything, the moral of the last week is that political decisions with long-term implications need to be thought through carefully.

With that said, I have two quick bullet points for tonight:

1. Bob Rae appears to have found his wedge issue. While Ignatieff carefully dances around the issue, Rae has embraced the idea of the coalition. It's certainly a calculated risk by the veteran politician, as many expect the coalition to implode over the holidays. But Rae needs a game changer and this could be it, one way or the other.

2. For those of you who might want to learn a bit more about Dominic LeBlanc, Macleans has an excellent profile of him in this week's newsstand edition of the magazine - and online. The article talks a lot about Dominic's Liberal roots - growing up with the Trudeau kids and driving Chretien around. Although that's all interesting, what I take from it is what should be the 10 word theme of his campaign - "Dominic can connect with voters...especially those outside of Toronto". LeBlanc would be a leader average Canadians could relate to, and he would be a Liberal leader who could grow the party outside of it's home turf. If he sticks to that 10 word theme, he should surprise a few people this campaign.

Face Off

Come January, I intend to re-jig my first ballot projection formula I used during the last Liberal leadership race. One of the indicators I'd been thinking about using was facebook support but, as you'll soon see, this leadership race has become a bit of a facebook monster, with groups sprawling out of control. Here's quick summary:


Michael Ignatieff

Not only is Iggy the perceived front runner in the race, he's the front runner in facebook support! Want to show your support for Michael? Well, you could join "I support Michael Ignatieff and I'm telling my friends". Too shy/embarrassed and don't want to tell your friends? Well, then, there's the official "Michael Ignatieff - Liberal Leadership" (958 members), which is linked to from his website, or the rogue "Michael Ignatieff Campaign", "Support Michael Ignatieff" groups, and TWO "Michael Ignatieff for Prime Minister" groups.

Not part of Iggy Nation (which is, of course, a group in and of itself)? Well then, you have "get Michael Ignatieff and God out of my living room" or the much more direct "Michael Ignatieff is the worst person ever" and "Michael Ignatieff sucks". Needless to say, most of the provinces have their own Iggy pages, although I should probably not call them "Iggy pages" or the "Iggy is Iginla, NOT Ignatieff" group will be up and arms.


Dominic LeBlanc

There's the central "Dominic LeBlanc for Liberal leadership" group, with 646 members and provincial groups for Albertans, Manitobans, Saskatchewanians, Ontarians, New Brunswickers, and Nova Scotians. British Columbia appears to be a distinct society, bucking the trend with "Dominic LeBlanc's BC facebook page". Perhaps the "saksatchewanians" should consider that wording...


Bob Rae

In addition to the "I Support Bob Rae and I'm Telling my Friends" (581) and the various "Bob Rae for Liberal Leadership" Groups, the Rae campaign is going riding by riding - they even have snazy logos for each of the individual groups. Given that most of these groups only have 1 or 2 members, I suspect there might be better ways for the Rae supporter(s) to communicate with each other (themselves) at the local riding level.

There are also duelling "Canadians FOR Bob Rae" and "Canadians AGAINST Bob Rae" groups.


William Shatner

Rightfully so, the "William Shatner for Governor General" group, appears to be far more organized than any of the leadership campaigns to date - and with close to 800 members, it clearly has the momentum at this point.

In Support of Dominic LeBlanc

Although I obviously have a soft spot for some of the candidates who didn’t run, I was always expecting this to be a three-man race and so I’ve spent the past month giving all the candidates a close look. I genuinely went into this one open-minded - it’s a very intriguing race because each of the three potential leaders is so unique, with vastly different strengths and vastly different flaws. I’ll be proud to support whichever one of the three wins this thing because they each bring so much to the table.

On one side you have the always-brilliant Michael Ignatieff who has matured as a politician so much over the past three years. I can certainly visualize him being a great Prime Minister.

On the other side you have arguably the most gifted politician in Canada today, Bob Rae. He’s experienced, he’s polished, and his Liberal credentials - doubted by some in 2006 - can no longer be questioned.

But I’ve decided to go another route. I won’t lie - Ignatieff’s position on issues I hold dear and the reaction I've seen to the words "Bob Rae" from average Ontarians played a role in my decision. But I’ve always said the problems faced by the Liberal Party run deeper than leadership so I would have had no problem sitting this race out and directing my energies elsewhere if no one caught my eye. Luckily, Dominic LeBlanc did just that.

As a 40-year-old child of the Liberal Party, Dominic understands the party and will direct his limitless energy to ensuring it’s long term health and prosperity. I know he’ll run to win the next election, as he should, but I have to respect anyone willing to admit it will take a decade to restore the party’s health. It was clear to those at the LPCO debate yesterday and to those watching it on TV, that LeBlanc understands rural Canada better than anyone else in this party and that he’s our best vehicle for making the party competitive in places where we haven’t been competitive for a long time. In addition, a lot of the party renewal suggestions he offered up were just what I’ve been waiting to hear – especially the idea of hiring young field workers to build up the party in regions of the country where we’re not currently successful.

While he’s certainly the best long-term option, I think Dominic brings skills to the table that will ensure short-term success as well. He’s fluently bilingual and an excellent communicator. Again, watching him yesterday, the man was engaging, funny, pointed, and knowledgeable - he will inject some badly needed energy and life into Canadian politics. Politics is about connecting with voters and I strongly believe LeBlanc is a leader voters will be able to relate to.

In addition to this, he also brings close to a decade of federal experience to the table, and is going to be a challenging opponent for the Tories to smear in the ten million dollar ad buy we all know is coming to a TV screen near you this May.

In short, LeBlanc is a politician of great potential, the only knocks being a lack of name recognition and a really bad haircut. But with the Liberal Party entering its third leadership race in five years, I want a leader who can guide us for a decade. With the Liberal Party desperately in need of renewal, I want a leader who understands the problems we face and is committed to finding long-term solutions - not just a quick fix.

So while my leadership endorsement may very well be the kiss of death, I offer it to Mr. LeBlanc. For any undecided Liberals out there, I would ask you to at least give the man a fair look because I suspect Dominic may surprise you.

Liberal Leadership Debate Recap

Update - Jeff and James also offer recaps

I'm not going to comment on the Ignatieff versus Rae spitting match on debate procedure because the whole argument strikes me as a bit juvenile, and it takes away from what was an amazing opportunity to listen to two of the leadership candidates outline their vision for the party, and the country, on a wide range of topics. If the leadership debates are anything like today's forum, Liberals are in for a treat, because this was far more entertaining than anything we saw during the 2006 race (or the 2006 LPCA kick-off debate which featured Joe Fontana, Paul Zed, and Clifford Blais among others). With the media banned, I became a journalist for the afternoon and brought my notebook with me - I share the highlights with Liberals here:

Opening
Dominic - "when my wife and I arrived in Toronto last night, I was very pleased to see the CN Tower still there; I was worried Jim Flaherty would have sold it for scrap parts by now."

Leblanc went on to say that he's in the race to win and that he's running because he believes the party needs to reconnect with rural voters, francophones, new Canadians, and Western Canadians, amongst others.

Ignatieff, meanwhile, said that the number one priority of the party was to win back the 900,000 Liberals who stayed home - "the minute we get them back, we're back". He signalled his support for a 308 riding strategy, a policy seconded by LeBlanc later during the debates.


What will you do to keep in touch with ridings?

LeBlanc argued that we need to "make membership mean something" - he believes that it's important for the leader and MPs to spend more time in the ridings than in the foyer of the House of Commons.

Ignatieff shared similar views (warning: this is a common theme during the debate), and said that ridings want "face time" with the leader, something he'd provide.


How would you help the party, caucus and campaign team work together during campaigns?

LeBlanc - "the French campaign material the party sent to me last election was great, but...I politely told them there was no BQ candidate running in my riding". Dominic went on to say that he'd rather see a more micro-targeting implemented by central campaign in terms of their message.

Ignatieff argued that it was important to start preparing for the next election from day one - "I'll put people in a room together in Ottawa and force them to come up with a strategy."


Would you lower the voting age to 16?

Both candidates agree the idea would have some merit but are against it.

Ignatieff - "I'm trying to think about when I was 16. I wasn't ready."

Leblanc meanwhile, said that he initially liked the idea but many of his Quebec colleagues cautioned that the "Oui" side would have won the 1995 referendum had 16 years olds been allowed to vote, souring him on the idea.

This question also featured one of the funniest moments of the debate, when Ignatieff said "the most important part of leadership is succession planning" (well, the man has been helping Dion with that over the past 3 years...) and added that it's always important for a leader to bring in future heirs to stand behind him. At this point he hap-hazardly gestured to Dominic and drew a big laugh.


Why don't more MPs come to exec meetings like this?

LeBlanc mentioned that Chretien always took attendance at caucus and Cabinet meetings, and that he would be equally rigorous at ensuring MPs attended important events like this. This marked one of about 14 times LeBlanc name dropped "Jean Chretien" during the debate - by my count, both candidates mentioned Dion once, and never did the words "Paul Martin" cross either of their lips.

Ignatieff said that he liked Carolyn Bennett's idea of a "mandate letter" for all critics and Cabinet Ministers that would explicitly define attending these sorts of events as part of their job description.


The Tories will run attack ads on the next leader. They will attack Ignatieff for being out of the country for so many years and LeBlanc over his lack of name recognition. How will you respond to these attacks?

Fun question.

Ignatieff showed real passion here, saying that: "Harper thinks you're a snob if you go to the opera. He says you're not a good Canadian if you haven't lived in Canada. Well, Stephen Harper doesn't get to say who's a good Canadian and who isn't. I'm proud of the achievements I've accomplished abroad."

LeBlanc, meanwhile, said that it's important to "fight fire with fire" - the Tory war room is preparing attack ads right now and the Liberals can't allow for a repeat of January 2007 when "we allowed Mr. Dion to be unfairly defined and we didn't respond". As for the claim that Canadians do not know him, he argued that they would by the end of this campaign.


Afghanistan?

This topic featured one of the few policy contrasts of the afternoon, with LeBlanc reminding people that he voted against the first mission extension, and Iggy saying that he voted for the initial t extension and that he "was part of the negotiations to secure a parliamentary compromise" on the 2011 extension.


You both promise change - how will you deliver it?

Dominic admitted that "the country wants the party to change the way we do business". He argued that it's time for the LPC to reconnect with, and re-engage Canadians. He pointed to the success of the "50 state strategy" and said it was important to send young field workers out to places where the Liberals weren't necessarily expected to win. In short, he believes less time should be devoted to "Ottawa strategy sessions" and more time should be spent "on the ground".

Ignatieff argued that Liberals need to recognize that "we are not the natural governing party anymore", and that "we should stop hanging on past achievements". Instead, he believes it's important for the party to offer a vision of the future to Canadians on important issues.


Green Shift?

Ignatieff - "The voters have spoken on The Green Shift"

LeBlanc - "The Green Shift was a major hurdle to our candidates in many ridings across the country"


Iraq?

LeBlanc landed an indirect shot here, saying "one of the proudest moments I had as an MP was to stand up and vote against Canadian participation in the Iraq war". He also segued into an idea of his to offer student debt relief to young people who work at NGOs.

Ignatieff agreed "our party should make it easier for Canadians to do public service overseas" and landed a good shot at Ianbrodieleak-gate saying the Harper government "showed a mix of malice and incompetence combined".


Gender Equality? (en francais)

LeBlanc says he liked Dion's policy of having 1/3 female candidates but feels they were too often selected to run in hopelessly unwinable ridings.

Ignatieff also liked this policy and would love to extend it to 40% or 50%. He commented that Harper was very smart to appoint so many female Cabinet Ministers.


Israel, Palestine, and all that fun

Both candidates engaged in a bit of a tango dance to offer a diplomatic answer to this question and both showed themselves to be very knowledgeable on the topic. There were a lot of foreign policy questions (many of which I haven't recaped here) and I must say that Ignatieff sounded very knowledgeable on all of them - the man certainly knows the issues inside out.


How can we become relevant in rural Canada?

Ignatieff was solid on foreign policy but on this topic, LeBlanc hit an absolute home run. He began with a joke - "I have 6 traffic lights in my entire riding...(laughs)...but when I began as an MP we only had 2!". He then went on to rattle off a list of issues relevant to rural Canadians, from tourism, to fisheries, to clean water, to seasonal workers. On every one, he offered a solution and attacked the Harper government's neglect of the issue. He finished by recounting a QP exchange where Harper told him that the Tories had offered subway pass tax credits and LeBlanc replied "the closest subway to my riding is in Boston". My recap probably doesn't do his answer justice, but it brought the house down - and, remember, this was a Toronto audience.

Ignatieff, meanwhile, said that appealing to rural voters was "about more than agricultural policy". He added that: "we've gone on the wrong side of a lot of issues" and then pointed to gun control as an example saying that "I want to be in a party that respects the rights of legitimate gun owners - it's an issue of freedom".

Truth be told, this example might have been a messy one for Iggy to bring up had the cameras been there.


What do you like most about the other candidates in this race?

Paddy Torsney asked this one, bringing back memories of the English debate. And, cribbing notes from Elizabeth May, both candidates on stage offered variations of "his family" when complementing Rae (with Michael adding that "he's the best piano player in the House of Commons").

For each other, both men were glowing in their praise. Ignatieff said he admired Dominic's sense of humour, saying that "I am a notorious humour-free zone"...he then butchered a self-deprecating joke about being forced to tell a joke at gun point...which was kind of funny in a meta way, given the context. He also praised the answer LeBlanc gave to the "rural" question earlier.

LeBlanc said that Michael was one of the best parliamentary performers he'd seen in his 8 years in Ottawa and that he had an amazing "sense of Canada's place in the world, and understanding of global security and human rights".

Now would likely be a good time to comment that the mood was nothing but positive throughout the entire debate - the two were constantly nodding at each other's answers, joking around with each other on stage, and their body language hinted at nothing but positive vibes.


What would you do for apprenticeships?

This excellent question allowed Liberals to meet "Mark the Chef" - Canada's version of "Joe the Plumber". Ignatieff related very well to this question, saying that his son was training to be a dry waller, and arguing that post-secondary education was about much more than university.

LeBlanc suggested that federal dollars must be used so that businesses are given tax breaks for hiring apprentices.


Closing

Both candidates promised to be positive, to unite the party, and all that feel-good stuff. Kum Ba ya...


In Conclusion

Everyone I talked to agreed that this was a thoroughly entertaining debate, and I must say that both candidates exceeded my expectations. I really hope we get as many of these debates as possible during the leadership race because all the undecided Liberals in the crowd I talked to afterwards agreed they learned a lot about the candidates from it.

Watching this debate certainly re-enforced the decision I've very recently made about which candidate to support - but, don't fear loyal readers, this strip tease will be a short one...

And They're Off...Again

Today’s Michael Ignatieff campaign launch – not to be confused with his initial launch…or his more formal future launch, went off fairly smoothly. The only real newsworthy tid-bit from it was MI's promise to hold a "thinker's conference" within a hundred days of winning the leadership. You can read about it here, or check out his very impressive campaign website here.

The media, no doubt having learned their lesson from 2006 when they declared the race a battle of the roommates, appear to have declared it…a battle of the roommates! But they’re not happy about being forced to declare it a two man race, as the Globe explains in today’s editorial:

Whatever his merits as a potential leader, Mr. Kennedy is one of his party's stronger advocates of a “308” strategy in which the Liberals would aim to compete in every riding – a variation of the “50-state” model successfully adopted by the U.S. Democrats. While many Liberals scoff at the notion of competing in much of rural Canada, let alone Alberta, other candidates would do well to consider this strategy now that Mr. Kennedy is out of the running – and not just because of its fundraising advantages.

Abandoning whole sections of the country where support does not come easily to them will eventually lead even the Liberals' core supporters to question what sort of a party they are voting for.

So what about the third contender? Well, Dominic LeBlanc lays out his reasons for running in La Presse and Macleans:

For the second time in less than three years, the Liberal Party is about to select a new leader on the heels of an electoral defeat. At this very early stage in that process of change, there are two facts that Liberals must confront.

First, the Liberal Party is in very real danger of suffering further erosion in the connection it has so long enjoyed with so many Canadians. We must act urgently to re-energize our party, our perspective and renew the credibility of our claim to lead this country in time to win the next election.

Second, that challenge can best be met with a generational change in our leadership. With the kind of revitalization that comes about when a party springs itself forward with a younger, more energized leader.