Alberta 2011 in Review

One of my favourite sayings is "If you don't like the weather in Alberta, wait 30 minutes. If you don't like the politicians, wait 30 years." However, the sleepy world of Alberta politics has come alive in recent years and 2011 was no exception.

A year ago, Ed Stelmach was Premier, Ted Morton was his Finance Minister and heir apparent, and David Swann was the leader of the opposition. Today, "feminist lawyer" Alison Redford is Premier and former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman leads the Liberals. Perhaps most shockingly of all, NDP leader Brian Mason shaved his stache.

So for those who haven't been paying attention to Alberta politics, here's what you missed in 2011.


Ed Stelmach and his wife share a lighter moment at his resignation press conference.

The PCs 2011 Year in Review

At the start of 2011, the PCs were leading the polls and nearing their 40th consecutive year in power. Ed Stelmach had won 72 seats in his first election as leader, a 10-seat improvement over Ralph Klein. So, of course, he had to go.

On January 25th, admid rumours of internal dissention, Ed Stelmach resigned as Premier.

Two days later, Ted Morton resigned as Finance Minister, refusing to bring in a deficit budget. Well, another deficit budget - Ted had run a $5 billion deficit as Finance Minister in 2010. Oh, and during the 2011 leadership race he promised to balance the books in 2013 - the exact same pledge as in the budget he refused to deliver.

Despite high expectations, Morton's leadership campaign lumbered along to a disappointing fourth place finish. Some chalk this off to Morton's supporters having already left for the Wildrose Alliance, but I see it as voters punishing Morton for his inability to follow up his 2006 hit, Ted Morton is the man, with a new theme song.

Instead, Gary Mar emerged as the frontrunner, scoring endorsement after endorsement, and leading Alison Redford 41% to 19% after the first ballot. Mar had it in the bag, but then women, teachers, and other left wing pinkos stormed the ballot box for the second round of voting. When the dust settled, Redford was Premier and Gary Mar was lamenting the cruelty of the PC leadership rules over a beer with Jim Dinning.

After her victory, Redford named a Cabinet, cancelled then un-cancelled the fall sitting of the legislature, and kind of kept her fixed election date promise. That may not sound like a lot, but Redford spent a great deal of time "being awesome".

As 2012 begins, Redford is still very much in the honeymoon phase. Liberals are happy that Alberta has its first liberal Premier in 90 years. Conservatives are happy that they're at 51% in the polls. Yes, everyone is happy - except for...


Get with the media narrative people! Danielle Smith is, like, so 2010.

Wildrose Party 2011 in Review

For Danielle Smith, 2011 was a harsh dose of reality. She started the year as a media darling both inside and outside Alberta. Newspapers would routinely profile her under headlines like "Danielle Smith doesn't walk on water - she runs on it!" or "Danielle Smith: Great politician or the greatest politician?". Yes, she led a party which had received 7% of the vote last election, had changed it's name 3 times in as many years, and had 4 castoff MLAs. But her midichlorian count was off the charts - she was universally seen as the chosen one who would bring balance to Alberta politics.

Politics is often compared to High School and from 2009 to 2010, Danielle was the most popular girl in school. Why was she popular? Because she was cool. Why was she cool? If you're asking, that's a sign you're not cool.

But then the new girl showed up and Danielle was, like, so 2010. So how did Danielle respond? She started spreading rumours about Alison. Not cool.

So the Wildrose doesn't smell quite as sweet as it did in 2010. Still, it could be worse. Which brings us to...


Possible election slogan: Raj Against the PC Machine

The Liberal Party 2011 in Review

I usually describe David Swann to non-Albertans as "a less charismatic version of Stephane Dion". That's likely mean but, as the federal grits learned this spring, they could do a lot worse than Stephane Dion. The provincial Liberals may learn the same lesson in 2012.

After dumping Swann, the Liberals went out a replaced him with former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman - presumably on the assumption that what Albertans are looking for is a PC leader...only with NEP baggage.

Sherman is a colourful character. The former medical doctor was elected to the PCs in 2008, then was quit/fired in 2010 after sending off a late night angry e-mail to Ed Stelmach and 40 of his closest friends, where he railed against Stelmach's health care record. (Possible PC commercial in next campaign - "When the phone rings at 3 am...it's probably Raj Sherman calling")

Since then, Sherman has raised the spectre of scandal, bribery, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. At times, he sounds like a Health Care crusader. At times, he sounds like Oscar Fech. Sherman is very much a wild card.

It's hard to say how he'll play with the public, but after a string of dull-as-paint leaders, no one will accuse the Liberals of being boring next election. Which is more than can be said for...


Unlike "mainstream" parties who try to "get votes", the Alberta Party is "doing politics differently".

The Alberta Party 2011 in Review

Much like Rebecca Black, the Alberta Party burst onto the scene early in 2011 as an Internet sensation.

Like most internet memes, this one appears to have been mostly fleeting. Sure, there were highlights in 2011 - Dave Taylor, frustrated with the Liberals' policy of not electing him Liberal Leader, become the first Alberta Party MLA in January. And there was the day in March they got 47 re-tweets. But despite those bright moments, the only media attention on the Alberta Party of late has been "what happened to the Alberta Party" stories.

So how did it all go wrong? Many blame Glenn Taylor, who was named leader in May, after a lackluster leadership campaign. (fun fact: the Alberta Party has 3,169 followers on Twitter, but just 1,200 voted in its leadership race)

I see the Alberta Party problem more as one of "supply and demand" than anything else. Alberta politics needs a third party left of the PCs about as much as federal politics needs a third communist party. Yeah, neither the Marxist-Leninists nor the Communist Party have been very effective, but would a tech savvy, well branded "Workers Revolution Party" do much better? Likely not.



PS. Technically speaking, the NDP are also a political party in Alberta.

A Beginner's Guide to Alberta Politics, or, "What the @$#! is going on in Alberta?"

Like an oil reserve, Alberta politics tends to lie dormant for thousands of years, only to gush to the surface without warning. And when it does, it's usually messy.

Like the last two weeks.

For those of you lucky enough to not follow Alberta politics, it must have all seemed rather perplexing. A caucus coup against a Premier coming off a landslide victory last election. The Premier and Finance Minister both resigning in the span of 48 hours...Only to be followed by the leader of the opposition less than a week later. Hell, it was perplexing to even Alberta's most rabid political junkies.

So, for those of you in other parts of the country, I do my best here to summarize last week's political geyser with this helpful FAQ.


Last time I checked Ralph Klein was Premier. Who's this new guy?

Ed Stelmach won the PC leadership on the same day and in the same way Stephane Dion won the LPC leadership. Ted Morton and Jim Dinning had spent all of 2006 hitting each other over the head, so Ed Stelmach took his 15% of vote and came up the middle as the compromise candidate. PC members were so sick of the frontrunners that they didn't worry much about Ed's vision (or lack thereof) or his ability to communicate with other human beings (or lack thereof).

After that, the Calgary media ripped him apart for a year, Dave Bronconnier went all Danny Williams on his ass, and voters humbled Ed in a by election.

Not that it mattered. Alberta being Alberta, and Ed being a Conservative, he won a staggering 72 of 83 seats, 10 more than Ralph Klein left him. Maybe seeing that a guy like Ed could be Premier made voters feel better about themselves. Maybe he won on the strength of the insomniac vote, thankful for the cure his speeches offered them. For whatever reason, Ed appealed to voters and Ed won. It's hard to argue with success.

Unless, of course, you're the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.


So why do they want him out?

There are two competing theories. One is that the PCs are scared stiff of the Wildrose Alliance, a party with only 5% of the seats in the legislature but 80% of the media coverage in the province. Even though the Wildrose Alliance has never won a seat in a general election, Alberta has a history of new parties wiping out dynasties in the blink of an eye. A lot of PC MLAs now gaze longingly at the great right hope, Ted Morton, to ensure the dynasty lives on.

The other theory is that the PCs have been in power for so long they don't worry about the things most other parties worry about - like winning elections. Instead, it's all about internal power struggles. It's no secret the PC power brokers don't like Ed Stelmach. They've been waiting to drop him since he won and were the only people more disappointed with the last election results than Alberta Liberals. So when they saw an opening to defenestrate Ed, they didn't hesitate.

Regardless of the reason, Ed was pressured to quit. His Finance Minister and heir apparent, Ted Morton, said he'd quit if Stelmach made him deliver the budget. (I'm not sure if Morton really understood the responsibilities of being Finance Minister when he took the job)

Jean Chretien or Ralph Klein would have snarled, fired Morton, and fought on. Ed quit.


Woah, woah, easy there partner. Wildrose what? Who are these guys?

The Alberta Alliance was a protest party that won 1 seat in the 2004 election. They merged with the Wildrose Party (another protest party) before the 2008 election to avoid the vote split...and won 0 seats.

Then, in 2009, things changed. The PCs tabled Alberta's first deficit in 15 years. People began talking about the Wildrose Alliance. When Danielle Smith was named leader, they really started talking about the Wildrose Alliance.

Although a political rookie, Smith is smart, well spoken, and media savvy. Of course, it's hard for her not to impress when compared to the current crop of provincial party leaders - even the Oilers would look good lined up against a Bantam hockey team.

So the Alliance won the Calgary Glenmore by election. They showed they were different from the PCs by adding a PC cast-off and a pair of disgruntled PC back benchers. There may only be 4 Wildrose MLAs, but they have the 67-member PC caucus scared stiff.

In their current form, it's easiest to think of the Wildrose Alliance as an Alberta version of the ADQ - a charismatic leader in charge of an untested party with some very questionable policies. Luckily for Danielle Smith, the only policy the media seem interested in asking her about is her policy of "being awesome". She might be in trouble if they start asking about Health Care cuts.


A right wing vote split must be manna from heaven for the Liberals. Are they poised to form government?

Errr...


I mean, running against a pair of far right wingers like Danielle Smith and Ted Morton - that's a political double rainbow if I ever saw one. It seems impossible to mess up a gift like that.

Ummm...


So, yeah, with everything coming up roses, why did their leader quit?

Basically, the same reason Ed did. People got spooked by lackluster poll results, and the leader couldn't control an unruly caucus.


And the Alberta Party, what's their deal?

The Alberta Party came into existence last year when progressives, worried that a right-wing vote split might cause them to stumble into power for the first time in 90 years, decided to found another party.

Alberta Party turn ons include "listening" and "Twitter", and their turn offs include "politics as usual" and "explaining what politics as usual actually means".

They are made up of a loose coalition of Albertans disillusioned with the province's major parties and disgruntled Liberals who feel "Do you support Alberta?" is an easier door knocking pitch than "So how about that NEP, eh?".

They're still in the embryonic stage but in Alberta we believe political life begins at conception or, at the very least, your first floor crossing. And they got their first last week - Dave Taylor, a former Liberal MLA, who had grown disenchanted with the Alberta Liberals' policy of not picking Dave Taylor as their leader.

They are very much a wild card at this point.


And what about the NDP? Where do they figure into the current political landscape?

Good question.


And the Greens?

They were desanctioned after the last election, so they're basically about as relevant now as the NDP.


Desanctioned?

That's what happens when you try to stick up for the environment in Alberta.

There is, however, a movement afoot to create a new Green Party, called Vision 2012. Because after all, the one thing missing in Alberta is a 4th opposition party to left of the PCs. At the rate we're going, there will be more parties than voters by the next election.


So what happens now?

Ted Morton will run for the PC leadership. Morton, who brought in Alberta's first deficit budget in a generation, is expected to position himself as the only candidate fiscally conservative enough to stop the Wildrose Alliance. Assuming he avoids the fate of every other front runner in every leadership contest fought in Canada and around the world over the past decade, he will win.


And when is the next election again? I assume that Alberta, being Canada's bastion of democratic reform, has fixed election dates, right?

Ha ha ha. Good one.

Expect an election roughly 60 days after the first poll of 2012 which shows the PCs more than 12 points up on the Wildrosers.


And who will win?

The smart money is on the PC dynasty surviving into its 40s, but for the first time since 1993 we may actually have to wait until the election before calling it. Hell, if we're lucky, the campaign might actually be worth watching.



MEET THE KEY PLAYERS



Ed Stelmach enjoys a lighter moment at his farewell news conference



Danielle Smith not only walks on water, she runs on it!



Ted Morton is likely to be Alberta's next Premier. He's a University professor who thinks he's a cowboy.



David Swann is the most genuine and honest human being on the face of the earth. So, of course, he was doomed from the start.



This is NDP leader Brian Mason. You will never see or hear about him again as long as you live, so don't feel bad if you forget his name. Hell, it even happens to the Premier sometimes.


Reports are Dave Taylor will simply create "The Dave Taylor Party" should he not win the Alberta Party leadership.

The Baffling Rise and Fall of Ed Stelmach

The only thing more surprising than Ed Stelmach's ascension to the Premier's seat was his departure from it. In effect, "surprising" would probably be the best way to sum up Stelmach's time as premier. Or "baffling". Or "incomprehensible". After all, the most boring politician the world has ever known gave Alberta five absolutely thrilling years in politics. In Alberta, that's no small feat.

To understand Stelmach's time as Premier, it's important to first understand that he should never have become Premier. Elected as PC leader the same day Stephane Dion was elected LPC leader, Stelmach's story was very much the same as Dion's. He'd proven himself to be a mostly competent Cabinet Minister, apart from one time when as transport minister he floated the idea of moving the "fast lane" on the highways to the right. He was an afterthought to most in a crowded leadership race with 8 candidates. Still, he found himself in third place with 15% of the vote after the first ballot and, with members tired of a lengthy fight between two flawed frontrunners, Stelmach surged up the middle to win. Sound familiar?

The only difference between Stelmach and Dion is that Dion probably spoke better English.

OK, OK, I'm just being mean. But hearing Stelmach speak is truly a unique experience. Graham Thompson described it as follows:

If we're ever in the situation where the world is about to be destroyed by a giant asteroid in 15 minutes, somebody should have Premier Ed Stelmach hold a news conference and broadcast it around the globe.

For anyone watching, that final quarter of an hour will seem like an eternity. At the 10-minute mark people will be cheering on the asteroid.

To sit through a Stelmachian news conference is to witness an end to the laws of relativity and syntax as we know them.

But the thing is - it would still be worth going to that final press conference because, if you could fight through the urge to gauge your ears out, you'd probably catch a gem. Like the time when he called the Calgary Stampede, "the Alberta Stampede". Oops.

So how did the Great Miscommunicator do it? How did he win a Klein-esque 72 of 83 seats in his first election? A good question, and one without an obvious answer. Hence my description of Stelmach's political career as "baffling". Personally, I'd chalk it up to Ed being a decent guy and the lack of alternatives - remember, this was before Danielle Smith learned to walk on water. Albertans were fairly happy with how things were going so why mess with a good thing?

And that's basically how Stelmach's tenure as Premier went. He wasn't as exciting as Ralph. He wasn't the leader Lougheed was. But he also didn't mess up like Getty. There were no big scandals - a few sexist tweets by a caucus member, a silly fight over domain names, a screw up on tourism pamphlets - this is hardly the stuff that brings down governments. Yes, he took the province into deficit - but who didn't?

Which brings us to the second riddle of Ed Stelmach's career - why pack it in? The obvious answer is that the party didn't want him. To outsiders, that may be hard to understand. The man gained 10 seats in his first election. Yet he only picked up 77% in his leadership review, and endured constant criticism from his MLAs and party members.

Was this because Progressive Conservatives were worried about the Wildrose Alliance ending their dynasty? I'd argue it was the exact opposite reason. When you're in power for 40 years, winning elections becomes an afterthought. Instead of worrying about the opposition, you look inwards. Remember, Stelmach was a guy who won the leadership with 15% of the party behind him. It's not surprising that some people inside the tent weren't fans of his. I remember talking to a PC friend of mine last year and he was sure Stelmach wouldn't make it to the next election, due to pressure from the caucus, the party, and (most of all) the fundraisers. I laughed, but it looks like he was right.

Or not.

Another possibility is that Stelmach just didn't like being Premier - he never looked like he enjoyed it the way Ralph Klein clearly did. After a slew of uninspiring budgets, it was obvious he didn't have any great ambitions for the province. Most people who follow politics roll their eyes when politicians say they want to spend more time with their families but...is that really so hard to believe?
I suppose we'll never know the real reason Stelmach left. Which is fine. His entire career defied political common sense and the easy explanation - it seems fitting his retirement should too.

Stelmach Resigning

I did not see this coming:

CALGARY — A high-ranking source says Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach will announce Tuesday he will resign as premier after the legislature session and won't run in the next election.

Stelmach has called a news conference for Tuesday afternoon, and a source said he'll announce the decision then.

"This will change the landscape of Alberta politics," he said

Maybe he's joining the Alberta Party too...



UPDATE: Ed's resignation speech. Feel free to add the awkward pauses and stamering as you see fit:

My decision today....

• Since the New Year I have been spending the last few weeks asking my Caucus to indicate to me their intentions for the next provincial election.

• I am impressed by the passion of my caucus colleagues and their desire to serve Albertans.

• They firmly believe in the mandate that Albertans gave us in the last election- the largest majority for a new Premier in Alberta's history.

• Our members are also equally committed to continuing in their role as members of the PC Caucus and fight in the next election.

• I have been asking these good men and women to make a minimum commitment of five years. It is a commitment to serve Albertans and those in public office know that this service comes with a personal sacrifice.

• As I have been having these discussions I have also been reflecting on my own commitment to serve beyond the next election.

• Upon much reflection and consultation with family and close friends, I have determined that after 25 years of public service I am not be prepared to serve another full term as Premier.

• Therefore I have decided to announce today I will not be running as a candidate in the next general election.

• There is no doubt that my decision today will come as a shock to many and a disappointment to my friends and Albertans.

• I am grateful to all those who supported me – who gave me the opportunity to raise integrity and honesty into government for the benefit of all Albertans.

• At a further date, I will provide written notice to the President of the PC Party, my intention to resign as leader.

• In due course, a full, fair and transparent leadership race will be held to select my successor.

• Until I provide the formal notice of intent to resign, I will continue to govern to fulfill commitments I made in the last general election.

• And to advance the interests of Alberta to the best of my ability and will put my full effort into this work – as I always have.

• And to this end, we will present a budget that shows the way to being balanced on a fully consolidated basis in 2013 – a year later than we had hoped.

• It will be a budget that will be received by most as tough yet responsible.

• But it will not be a budget that guts funding to municipalities, mothballs health projects underway or halts school, and road construction at a time when people need work and the prices for construction are good.

• The budget my government brings in will use the cash we saved during the boom to help us through the bust and position us to leap ahead of the nation and the continent.

• My successor will be under no obligation to go to the polls in March of 2012.

• That was my timetable and mine alone.

• My successor has the parliamentary authority to call an election anytime up to the constitutional deadline of March of 2013.

• No one needs to be stampeded into a decision. Lets all take the time to get this right.

• I have always put my family, my constituents, my province and my party ahead of myself.

• So I say to you this as directly as I can.

• There is a profound danger that the next election campaign will focus on personality and US style negative, attack politics that is directed at me personally.

• The danger is that it could allow for an extreme right party to disguise itself as a moderate party by focussing on personality – on me personally.

• This type of US style wedge politics is coming into Canada, and it comes at our peril.

• Albertans deserve to have better level of public debate on our policy options.

• Alberta must move forward to address the challenges of the future.

• Alberta must be a participant in the global community.

• Alberta must lead the way in responsible resource development.

• Alberta must not look backward when all the world is looking for modern leadership.

• As a grandson of immigrants who came to this country to harness a better future for their children out of a piece of prairie they could claim as their own, I believe in the good and truth of private enterprise and democracy.

• I believe deeply in democratic institutions and the parliamentary system of government that has served Canada so well.

• And I believe that the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta is the best institution we have to unite Albertans around a positive, progressive future.

• The PC Party has been a fundamental success story in Alberta politics because it is firmly rooted in our culture – a culture that is conservative, yet looks always to achieving a bold future.

• Thank you.

Ed Stelmach

-Premier of Alberta

This Week in Alberta - Behind the Numbers

It turns out the polling presentation made to the PC campaign committee at their AGM last weekend has been left on a public server. Oops.

Mind you, given the numbers are fairly flattering to Stelmach and don't reveal much about PC strategy or messaging, I suspect this may have been a somewhat intentional "accident". Still, it's worth taking a look, if only because we rarely see this level of in-depth polling data about Alberta in the public domain.


VOTE

The PCs already leaked the vote numbers, and why wouldn't they? They show Alberta's natural governing party leading the Wildrose Alliance 40% to 26%, an improvement from their 36% to 29% lead in June. Still, as the leaked presentation shows, the vote question asked about "local candidates" rather than naming the party leaders. I suspect the gap would be narrower had the vote question been on "the PCs led by Ed Stelmach, the Wildrose Alliance led by Danielle Smith, etc etc".

Regardless, the regional splits are the interesting ones here - given the small sample sizes we're dealing with, I averaged the June and October numbers together:

Calgary: WRA 36%, PC 32%, ALP 23%, NDP 6%
Edmonton: PC 42%, ALP 22%, NDP 18%, WRA 16%
Rural: PC 40%, WRA 30%, ALP 16%, NDP 10%

So long as the PCs continue to hold a firm grip on Edmonton, they'll stay in power, with the only question being "minority or majority". But if we ever see the Liberals and NDP return to their '04 numbers in Redmonton, then watch out - we've actually got a contest.


LEADERS

The take home message here is that Stelmach is still a drag on the PC brand, but not enough to drag them out of power - yet:

Stelmach: 43% favourable, 38% unfavourable (9% unfamiliar)
Smith: 30% favourable, 10% unfavourable (51% unfamiliar)
Mason: 24% favourable, 16% unfavourable (48% unfamiliar)
Swann: 17% favourable, 17% unfavourable (57% unfamiliar)

This is a big jump for Stelmach since June when close to half (47%) the province was unfavourable towards the big guy. Still, he's clearly a negative to the brand - 33% of Albertans say the PCs are the most competent party whereas only 23% say Stelmach is the most competent leader. I suspect we'd see a similar 10-point Ed-drag across most attributes.

Stelmach's biggest asset appears to be the "regular person" label, though I guess it depends if people think he's "a regular guy who is in way over his head when it comes to running a province" or "a regular guy like Ralph".

Half of Albertans still don't have an opinion on Danielle Smith - somewhat surprisingly given the media love-in she's enjoyed. This lack of awareness is clearly hurting her on some of the head-to-head leadership comparisons in the survey. But, man, if she can keep that 3-to-1 ratio of like-to-dislike when Albertans do become familiar with her, she'll be the next Premier. No question about it.

And before people jump on the Liberals, the survey refered to their leader as "Dr. David Swann". To me, that completely biases the respondent and (I would hope) the grits are smart enough not to be slapping the "Dr." on their campaign signs in 2012.


THE NEXT ELECTION

The most interesting part of this survey to me was the relative areas of strength between the PCs and the WRA. I'd assumed one of the biggest selling points of the Wildrose Alliance was the "balancing the books" argument. Yet, when asked which party is the most financially responsible, the PCs beat the WRA by a 3-to-1 ratio (32% to 10%). Even the tax-and-spend Liberals and that dang Dr. Swann are judged better money managers than the Wildrose Alliance.

Rather, where the Alliance seems to be connecting is at a more emotional, personal level. When asked about "values", the PCs only lead 27% to 21% - by far, the closest of the head-to-head attributes measured. And when the leaders are put head-to-head, Stelmach fares worst on the "caring" questions - "cares about the problems in my community", "cares about people like me", and "listens and responds to the views of others".

To me, this means the Danielle Smith Party has not surged because the PCs are "spending like Liberals". Rather, people see the PCs as an out of touch government which does not listen to, or care about, common Albertans.

And if that's true, it's actually good news for all the parties. It's good news for the WRA because they're strong on the "shares my values" question and that's one of the most powerful vote drivers in all of politics. It's good news for the Liberals because it means the WRA haven't surged on ideology (where the ALP can't compete with them) but rather on emotion (where they can). And it's good news for the PCs because, ironically enough, the largest strength of an otherwise dud of a leader is that people see him as the "common man" - the perfect counter to arguments their 40 year old government is out of touch.

Provincial Uprising

Angus Reid has updated their Premier approval numbers from November and it's not rosy - only 2 of the 10 Premiers crack the 30% approval barrier.

And suddenly, Stephen Harper's underwhelming poll numbers start looking a lot more whelming by comparison. The man has struggled of late and may spend his life chasing an unobtainable majority, but at a time when voters are P.O.'d at governments coast-to-coast, he's still Canadians' top choice for Prime Minister.

The Premiers

Danny Williams 80% approve, 11% disapprove
Brad Wall 56% approve, 24% disapprove
Greg Selinger 27% approve, 28% disapprove
Darrel Dexter 23% approve, 53% disapprove
Gordon Campbell 23% approve, 60% disapprove
Jean Charest 22% approve, 53% disapprove
Dalton McGuinty 21% approve, 52% disapprove
Ed Stelmach 16% approve, 62% disapprove
Shawn Graham 15% approve, 62% disapprove

Despite his American vacation, Danny Williams towers over the field. 80%? Crap, I'm not sure Sidney Crosby could get that. The scary thing is, 80% is on the low side compared to other recent polls.

More and more, Danny is looking like this generation's Ralph Klein - he could choke 101 puppies to death in the Legislative Assembly and voters would shrug and say "that's just Danny being Danny". Because, after all, even puppies don't get 80% approval ratings, no matter how cute they are.

What's remarkable is that Williams has done it without the same partisan foundation Klein stood on - it's not like Newfoundland is an ultra-Conservative province, after all. I don't know how he does it, but if you could bottle Danny Williams, a teaspoon of him a day would turn anyone into a contender.

The news is less good for Danny's fellow Atlantic Canadians, who could certainly use a teaspoon or two of the Williams magic.

The biggest loser since November is Nova Scotia's Darrell Dexter, who has seen a 20 point swing in his numbers, most likely due to a series of expense claim scandals. Let this be a cautionary tale to all you kids out there on the dangers of experimenting with NDP governments.

Shawn Graham is now less popular than Ed Stelmach, which tells you all you all you need to know about how the New Brunswick Hydro sale has gone over. The weird thing is, you can't count Graham out in the upcoming election (likely this September) - a recent poll has him just 6 points down. The same holds true for equally unpopular McGuinty, Charest, and Stelmach.

No matter how cruddy the job of "Premier" has become, it still beats "opposition leader".

This Week in Alberta - The Toboggan Ride Ends

Environics released a new poll yesterday, similar to their numbers from October:

PC - 34% (nc)
WRA - 30% (+2%)
ALP - 23% (+3%)
NDP - 10% (+1%)
Green - 2% (-6%)

So no real changes - my suspicion is the now-deregistered Greens were prompted as an option on the October survey but weren't in this one.

This is, of course, less cataclysmic for the PCs than the Angus Reid poll from December that had the Wildrosers up by 14 points. When deciding which numbers to go by, a good rule of thumb is to go with what feels right, and these new numbers do feel right. Danielle Smith is in the game, but to form government she's going to have to do more than smile and say "aww shucks" when someone asks her about climate change and what services she'd cut.

And what does a competitive political landscape mean? Well, it means we'll see a lot more moves like yesterday's decision to slash royalty rates. One week, Stelmach and Ted Morton are lecturing Albertans about getting a runaway deficit under control. The next, they're giving away 800 million dollars in annual revenue.

Sure, they'll say it's all about jobs and economic growth. But the reality is, political donations have been flowing straight from the oil patch to the Wildrosers over the past year. The next election will be a bloody one, and Stelmach needs to get the PC war chest filled - this was the easiest way to do just that.

Alberta Budget: Drawing the 2012 Battle Lines

In 2009, Alberta underwent a seismic political shift. Because of that, Budget 2010 has been more highly anticipated and speculated about than last week's Lost premiere. And, at first glance, it's just as confusing, with massive spending increases in some departments and deep cuts in others. After a series of cautious budgets, where the PCs basically threw money at anyone and everyone who asked for it, they've been forced into establishing priorities. And, as we all know, it is not easy to make priorities.

The number 1 priority is, without a doubt, Health Care, which sees its already massive operating budget increase by 17%. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the PC narrative for the next election campaign:

"We have to deal with Aunt Martha who needs her hip, we need to deal with thousands of students who want to learn in modern schools," Snelgrove said. "It's all right to suggest that we can cut $5 billion. I would be a lot more comfortable if they would show Albertans where they would like to cut the $5 billion from and see if Albertans support longer waiting lists, no roads and 60 people in a classroom."

That's not to say the PCs will spend like Alberta PCs have spent in recent years. But they've picked Health Care as their wedge issue with the Wildrose Alliance and, from a strategic perspective, that's not be a bad wedge - it's also an issue that could scare Liberal and NDP voters into voting Stelmach to stop Smith.

But as Colby Cosh points out, the PCs are basically toast if they can't post a surplus by 2012. The good news for them is that it's pretty easy to announce a surplus in Alberta - you just need to tinker with your projected price of oil and natural gas. Still, they needed to make room for the Health Care spending bonanza while gaining street cred with disillusioned right wing voters who have shifted to the Alliance.

So we get huge cuts to culture, the environment, and a dozen other departments, plus the elimination of 795 government jobs. Somewhat troublesome is the 6% cut to advanced education and technology which, to me, shows that an incredible short sighted government has grown even more incredibly short sighted now that its fighting for their political life.

So the PCs have picked Health Care as their issue. What does this mean for the Liberals and NDP, who may have just had their number 1 issue taken away from them?

Well, I think this budget creates a new opening for them. The second Red Ted delivered his budget speech, Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier was already complaining that Stelmach had reneged on promised funds for the city, which may lead to the cancellation of infrastructure projects. There's a certain deja vu to this. Stelmach's first budget (in 2007) was widely seen as being anti-Calgary, and Bronconnier pounced on it, hammering Stelmach into the dust day after day. A desperate Eddie backed down then, and Bronco rode his Danny Williams shtick to re-election that fall.

And, wouldn't you know it? This just so happens to be municipal election year in Alberta again.

Given that, it's almost a given that Bronconnier will try to turn a city and its media, already sour on Stelmach, even more against the Premier. Toss in a 19% cut to housing and urban affairs, and I suspect a few other mayors looking for re-election will be up in arms as well.

It's doubtful Danielle Smith's alternative budget will have any more money for the cities. So the opportunity is there for the Liberals to take the torch and rise to the defense of Calgary - after all, their leader is a Calgarian and they remain an urban party. If I were David Swann, I would pick this as my battle and hound the PCs on it day and night. Stand beside Bronconnier, raise hell in the legislature, write op-eds in the Calgary papers, go on Dave Rutherford demanding Calgary get what was promised. The road to government is going to run through Calgary and the Liberals need to paint themselves as the city's true defenders.

Stelmach has picked his issue - the Liberals need to find theirs.

This Week in Alberta - This One Came Out Of Right Field

Alberta politics tend to stay dormant for 30 years at a time. But when they wake up - watch out! The latest from Angus Reid:

The surging Wildrose Alliance party would form the next provincial government in Alberta if an election were held tomorrow, according to a new poll of decided voters that gives the right-of-centre party a double-digit lead in popular support over the long-ruling Tories.

A new Angus Reid Public Opinion survey of 1,000 Albertans suggests 39% of voters would cast a ballot for Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Alliance.

The fledgling party is pulling away from Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives, who were tied with David Swann's Liberals for second place with the backing of 25% of decided voters province-wide, according to the poll.

Brian Mason and the NDP are in fourth spot with the support of 9% of Alberta voters, while 2% said they would vote for another party.

Yup, the PCs are tied for second with the Liberals...ouch.

The good news for Ed Stelmach is he has two years - during which time the price of oil should rise - to recover from this. He's already survived his leadership vote, but a few more polls like this and we may start seeing some defections.

No one would have called it back in January, but 2009 has proven to be the most interesting year in Alberta politics since the early 90s. Stay tuned.

Stelmach gets 100% in review

Well, according to the Edmonton Sun. In reality, Stelmach comes in at 77.4%, right below the 78% I'd predicted.

So what does it mean? Well, it's humbling for a man who won 72 of 83 seats just a year and a half ago.

But it's certainly enough for Stelmach to stay on as leader. The ambiguous leadership review zone is usually in the high 60s - Clark stayed with 66.5% in '81 and quit with 66.9% in '83, while John Tory stayed (then quit) with 66.8% earlier this year. I can't think of someone getting a total this high and leaving, although Bernard Landry did resign after getting a similar 76.2% in 2005 (but, of course, the PQ had superstar Andre Boisclair waiting in the wings).

But Stelmach is the Premier, whereas all the aforementioned were in opposition, coming off dissapointing election results. He has given no sign of backing down so, baring a caucus mutiny, Stelmach will be the man trying to keep the 40 year old dynasty alive next election.

Which, if you think about it, probably makes Danielle Smith and David Swann the big winners of the night.

This Week in Alberta - All Good Things...

With Ed Stelmach's leadership review vote coming up tomorrow (I'll be sure to post the results, and offer analysis, as soon as the numbers hit Twitter), this is certainly not welcome news for the embatled Premier:

Across the province, 34 per cent of decided voters say they support the Tories, down from 55 per cent a year ago.

The Wildrose party, under new leader Danielle Smith, is now the solid second choice of Albertans, with 28 per cent support. The Liberals have the support of 20 per cent and the NDP nine. Despite being deregistered by Elections Alberta, the Green Party polled at eight per cent.

The numbers suggest the Wildrose Alliance is particularly strong in Calgary, polling 34 per cent among decided voters, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories.

The Wildrose appears to have considerably less support in Edmonton, where it polled in third place, with 17 per cent of decided voters. The Conservatives polled at 34 per cent support, the Liberals 27 and the NDP at 13 per cent.

Outside the major cities, 38 per cent of decided voters say they would cast ballots for the PCs, 32 per cent for the Wildrose party and 15 per cent for the Liberals.

It's hard to project what numbers like this would mean in terms of seats, especially when you consider how little is known about the Wildrosers or their leader. But the Alliance are ahead in Calgary and are highly competitive in rural Alberta. Throw in Redmonton's history of turning on the PCs, and Stelmach is looking out at a very unstable political landscape. A lot can change in 2 or 3 years but, right now, an election would probably produce the first minority government in Alberta's history.

Over the past two months, I've mused on here from time to time about the possibility of Alberta's 38-year old political dynasty crumbling. And this would definitely follow the pattern.

To recap, in 1971 the SoCreds were swept aside by the PCs, a party that had never governed Alberta and had won just 6 seats in the previous campaign, up from 0 the election before that.

36 years earlier, the Socreds, having never elected an MLA before, completely wiped out the United Farmers of Alberta.

18 years earlier, the UFA, having never won a seat, took out the Liberals, who had governed Alberta since its founding.

So Danielle Smith (Fun Fact: Rome wasn't built in a day, but only because Danielle Smith wasn't there) certainly has history on her side.

After tomorrow, we should have a good idea of who Smith and history will be up against.

This Week in Alberta - What Have You Done For Me Lately?

The media focus has shifted away from Danielle Smith's Wildrose leadership victory, onto Ed Stelmach's November 7th leadership review. The latest? Alan Hallman has come forward suggesting Stelmach has been a failure and should be replaced. And, as Jim Dinning's 2006 leadership campaign manager, Hallman is certainly an expert on the topic of political failure.

Yes, I know what you're thinking. Stelmach picked up 10 new seats, winning 72 of 83 seats the last election, his first. And his party wants him out? Because they're worried about a party that has never held more than 1 seat in legislature? I know, I know...Alberta politics is difficult to understand.

With few connections in the PCs, any predictions I could make about Stelmach's fate would be a shot in the dark - so I'll take that shot and say Ed gets about 70% and stays on.


SPEAKING OF WHICH...

Danielle Smith (little known fact: Danielle was runner-up to Obama for this year's Nobel Peace Prize) appears to be targeting Calgary North Hill as the riding she wants to run in next election (sorry Kyle!).

2008 Northhill Results
Kyle Fawcett 4,292 (PC) 37.94%
Pat Murray 3,589 (ALP) 31.72%
John Chan 1,490 (NDP) 13.17%
Jane Morgan 977 (WRA) 8.64%
Kevin Maloney 736 (GP) 6.51%
Jim Wright 229 (SC) 2.02%

The riding would appear to be a bit more left-leaning than Glenmore, with a slim majority of the riding voting for the Liberals, NDP, or Greens last election. That means that even if Smith converts half the PC vote and maintains the WRA/SC base, she might still fall short of the Liberals (especially if some of the Green vote drifts to Swann now that the Alberta Greens have been deregistered).

Still, voter turn-out was so embarrassingly low last election that it's risky to do math like that, especially when Smith herself could be a game changer. The bottom line is that this is a riding that can be won with 35% of the vote, and if Smith can't clear that hurdle in her home riding, then we're all wasting a lot of time talking about her.

Chequing Back In

Well, the big news of the past week appears to be the stimulus cheques with Tory logos plastered all over them. Given what we know of Harper and the way the stimulus funds have been spent, this shouldn't come as a huge surprise to anyone.


Back in Alberta...

Danielle Smith took the Wildrose Alliance leadership race 6,295 to 1,905. With the spoiled ballots, that means there were about 8,300 votes cast, more than the 4,500 who voted in the ALP leadership race last year, but a far cry from the close to 100,000 who voted in the 2006 PC leadership race. Mind you, PC leadership races are the only time Albertans actually get to vote for a Premier, so the interest in that race is understandable.

As I wrote last month, the challenge for Smith becomes one of building up credibility. Smith's credibility won't be a problem - despite not having a day of elected political experience, she's already a more credible Premier than Ed Stelmach. The real challenge will be making the Wildrose Alliance credible. Sure, defections of PC MLAs will help, but it's really all about finding credible candidates and quieting the crazies.

For all intents in purposes, Alberta has its own version of Mario Dumont and the ADQ...and we all know how that ended.

This Week in Alberta - Poll Results More Difficult to Interpret than an Ed Stelmach Speech

No, not those polls. There's not much I can say about those that hasn't already been said. Suffice to say it's likely a good thing we're not in an election campaign right now.

No, today's polling update comes from Alberta:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

There's certainly some Wildrose momentum there. But until they actually pick a leader and let people know a bit about their party, it's a fairly futile task to ask voters who they'd vote for. For all intents and purposes, that 21.5% is just a "Stelmach sucks" vote at this point, and nothing more.

Basically, Alberta is in Buffalo Springfield territory now: There's something happening here, What it is ain't exactly clear. Come back to me in January after Albertans meet the new Wildrose leader, after Stelmach's leadership review, after all this floor crossing gossip either materializes or fizzles. That's the poll I'll be very curious to look at.

This Week in Alberta - Read My Lips

Ending speculation about possible tax hikes, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach announced Tuesday the province is not increasing personal or corporate taxes to deal with Alberta's growing financial woes.

"As long as I'm premier of this province, there will be no tax increases ... No tax increases, period," Stelmach forcefully told reporters after a cabinet meeting in Calgary.

This story deserves attention, and not just because it's the only recorded instance of the words "Stelmach forcefully" being used in that order (Seriously. Don't believe me? Check out google.).

No, this story deserves attention, because of the baffling Liberal response, which was - "well...maybe we should raise taxes":

While hiking taxes should be a last resort, it should still be an option for a government to consider, said Alberta Liberal finance critic Dave Taylor.

*CG smacks head on desk repeatedly*

But before anyone thinks I've gone soft on Steady Eddie, the rest of the press conference was vintage Stelmach:

Stelmach also said he's immediately rolling back the liquor tax increases that were introduced in the spring budget. That move will reduce government revenues by $180 million a year — and add to this year's deficit that had already been projected to reach almost $5 billion.

Stelmach said he was never comfortable with the April jump in liquor prices when the government markup was boosted by $1.30 for a dozen beer, 75 cents for a bottle of wine and $2.89 for a 750 ml bottle of spirits.

"It was something that I had a hard time agreeing with; it's been bothering me all that time," he admitted.

"We have to … continue to work to reduce the cost of doing business in this province. That's the way you build Alberta's future, and I tell you that Albertans expect confidence and stability in these very, very difficult economic times, and that is my focus," he said. "So just to close: cold beer, hot day, during very difficult economic times."

So, to recap. Stelmach was "never comfortable" with his own budget. Well, that's reasuring.

And now, less than three months later, he has completely reversed himself for no apparent reason other than to project "confidence and stability". Uh-huh.

This Week in Northumberland, UK

What I love most about Ed Stelmach is how his government seems drawn to the silly little screw-up stories. The latest example:

EDMONTON - Tourism officials in northeastern England are both pleased and baffled by a new $25-million Alberta rebranding campaign that features a photo of children frolicking on one of its North Sea beaches.

While the tagline on the advertisement reads: "Alberta: Freedom to Create. Spirit to Achieve.", the Alberta government has confirmed the photo was taken near the English village of Bamburgh in Northumberland. The photo also appears in an Alberta promotional video that has been posted on YouTube.

Now, I will give the ad firm who came up with this some credit - it had never occurred to me to promote Alberta as a beach front tourism destination. And, in fairness, if you are going to promote Alberta as a beach-front tourism destination, you sure don't want to use pictures of any Alberta beaches because, well, there aren't a lot of nice ones. Certainly not as nice as that one in Northumberland anyways.

But, as is so often the case, the real joy in this is watching Team Stelmach spin. First up - Cindy Ady, famous for her work on the Idaho-Alberta Transboundary Task Force:

Tourism Minister Cindy Ady told reporters that her department wasn't involved in the rebranding campaign

Silly reporters. Assuming the Department of Tourism would handle a 25 million dollar tourism rebranding campaign.

But the real all-star spin doctor is Tom Olsen:

When the story about the controversial photo was first published earlier this week in an Edmonton newspaper, the Alberta government stood by the use of the images.

"There's no attempt to make people think that this is Alberta," Tom Olsen, a spokesman for Premier Ed Stelmach, told the Edmonton Journal.

Yes! What idiot would jump to the conclusion that a picture on a Tourism Alberta poster, with the word "ALBERTA" scrolled over it, was a picture of Alberta?

But Tom soon backed down, and was singing a different (albeit equally amusing) song yesterday:

However, in an interview yesterday, Mr. Olsen said the still advertisement was "an error" and was quietly yanked a few weeks ago. The Premier's office wasn't notified about the decision to pull it until yesterday afternoon, he explained.

Mr. Olsen said the government still supports using the image in the promotional video. "It's symbolic of the future children and the world," he said.

Symbolic of the future children and the world? I'm not even sure what that means...

In the words of NDP leader Brian Mason "Most lame spin ever".

The Lord Smiles on Ed Stelmach

EDMONTON - Alberta's bragging rights as Canada's economic engine are fading and Premier Ed Stelmach says people seem to be a little grumpy about it.

[...]

The latest Conference Board of Canada outlook projects growth of minus 0.5 per cent, the first negative figure the province has seen in nearly a quarter of a century. That's in stark contrast to a place that led the country in growth for three years starting in 2004.

But Stelmach actually seems a bit relieved that Alberta is no longer No. 1. "Thank God!" he said in reaction to the news that Saskatchewan is now in top spot with projected growth of 1.6 per cent.

Hat Tip - tGPOitHotW

This Week in Alberta: On the Ground Edition

I'm back from snowy Alberta, so here's a quick rundown what's new in wild rose country strong and free Alberta:


1. The Edmonton Journal has taken a page from the Hill Times with their annual MLA survey. Given the dearth of political intrigue in Alberta, finding out who the sexiest MLAs are is about as consequential as Alberta politics gets these days. Best hair, rudest, and all the other fun categories can be found here.

MLAs were also asked what superhero Ed Stelmach reminds them of - and Superman got the most votes (dear MLAs: seriously?). I'd be hesitant to pick a single superhero, but comparing Ed to Heroes might not be a bad idea given the convoluted and incomprehensible plot lines we've seen from that show this season.


2. Speaking of superheroes, what do Ralph Klein and the Joker have in common? (answer - and Dark Knight spoiler - at the end)


3. Also offering up an MLA report card is Daveberta.


4. New to the Alberta blog scene is Tiny Perfect. Tiny is a Dipper from Edmonton (as if there were any other kind of Alberta Dipper), and gets a hat tip for my next, non-Alberta, bullet point.


5. I'm sure everyone was expecting a lot of babies to be named "Barack" this year. But, there is one political power couple whose recent success has spawned a baby naming boom, as far away as England!


6. Given how this blog started, how could I not love an anonymous Alberta Liberal blog? Centre Bloq is new to the blogging scene, and is funny, smart, and willing to critique both the provincial and federal parties when they deserve to be criticized. Check it out.


7. Answer: They both blew up the General Hospital.

You know it's a Canadian Election when...

...the Greens complain about being left out of the debates.

...politicians scape-goat the Alberta oilsands.

...the Premier of Alberta wades in.

...the Liberals promise an ambiguous gun ban.

...the Tories flip-flop on negative ads in a matter of hours (they'll go neg anyone?)


Yes, it's hard to call the first full day of the election a slow news day in the least...it just has a "rerun" feel to it. Among the things on day two that deserve a bit of commenting on my part:


1. Ed: It seems Ed Stelmach has taken a page from Ralph Klein's playbook, deciding to play the role of pundit on the federal election campaign. And, whatever, I can't criticize him for that when you consider that McGuinty and Danny Williams will do the same thing (oh, and Harper too). But Stelmach's moral high ground posturing about attack ads? That, I could do without:

But Mr. Stelmach also seemed to suggest that attack ads aren't the way to win that majority, appearing to criticize federal Tory ads harshly critical of the Opposition Liberals.

“Albertans want to know what you're going to do for them,” he said when asked about the federal Conservative ads. “I don't think they pay much attention in terms of criticizing another individual.”

Mr. Stelmach was himself the victim of third-party attack ads in the most recent provincial ballot and said the increased majority his government won is proof that voters don't like negative ads.

“While you're criticizing someone else, you're not really telling Albertans what you're going to do for the province of Alberta.”

First of all, I'm not sure a PC win in Alberta should neccesarily be the case study used to prove a point about election campaigns. And considering the only reason Stelmach offered for re-electing his government was that the Liberals would destroy the economy and bring in the NEP, it definitely isn't a case study in how positive campaigning works.


2. Early in the Morning: The Tories made a tactically brilliant decision in the last campaign to have policy announcements every morning in order to control the day's agenda. No doubt buoyed by this, they've decided to do daily 6 a.m. smearings of Stephane Dion. Today's run did not go over well.

Gee, who would have thought journalists would be cool to the idea of setting their alarm clocks to 5 a.m. every morning wouldn't go over well with reporters already hostile towards Harper? Especially if the Tories don't plan to do anything other than show off new photo shopped Dion pictures?

At the same time, this provides a great opening for the other parties to set the agenda. A daily 8 a.m. policy announcement by the Liberals could easily allow them to set the agenda, rather than just responding to the Conservative narrative.


3. Debate Debate: I've never been convinced that Elizabeth May should be included in the debates despite her belief that she is entitled to a spot. They have yet to crack 5% of the vote in an election (a significant threshold in a lot of MMP countries) and they have yet to elect an MP.

I did find it odd that the Liberals were pushing for her inclusion while the Tories wanted her excluded. If we work on the assumption that having May in the debates helps her...and that she'll grab voters who care about the environment...and that the Liberals are also fighting for voters who care about the environment...well, you have to ask yourself how May doing well helps Dion, and how May doing well does not help Harper. Even if she tears Harper a new one in the debate, that would only serve to make Dion and Layton look even less effective by comparison.

There was a good debate about the debates in the comments section of this post last week. Reading through the comments, what I'd really like to see would be:

-Four debates of different formats (town hall, youtube, topic specific, etc...).
-Get rid of the separate French and English debates and make them all billingual.
-Open up the first three debates to May and the Greens.
-Make the fourth debate open only to the PM and the leader of the opposition. Make it a Bartlett-style no holds barred debate since, after all, these are the two individuals fighting for the right to be Prime Minister under our British Parliamentary system.


PS - Great to see that Steve Paikin will be moderating the English debate this year!

Historical Context

Mr. Harper said the Conservatives did “more in three years” than the Liberals in their last 13 years in office, or than the Bloc could ever do in “113 years in opposition.”

Fair enough. After all, I think creating a deficit is at least as hard as eliminating one.

And while I expect politicians to tout their own record, I was slightly bemused by Ed Stelmach's response to the latest round of decentralization, claiming that “this is, without a doubt, the most significant policy change in the federal government in at least 25 years”.

Certainly Ed wasn’t snubbing Brian Mulroney’s termination of the evil NEP, a move which single-handedly caused the world price of oil to rise, Alberta hockey teams to win a half dozen Stanley Cups, and Alberta’s economy to rebound a short 10 years later?

I mean, wouldn’t the single most important policy change in the history of the world get top billing over an announcement that (if you read the article) may or may not reflect an actual change in policy?