The Unsinkable Jean Charest

Seriously, this is just getting ridiculous. Has there ever been a politician who has come back from the brink more often than Jean Charest?

A poll released Monday suggests support for the sovereignty movement in Quebec is fading, with only about one-third of Quebecers who answered the Leger Marketing poll saying they would vote to separate if there was a referendum.

That's down five points since May. The poll, conducted online, also shows a drop in support for the Parti Québécois, from about 40 per cent last September, to 24 per cent.

That puts the separatist party 10 points behind Premier Jean Charest's front-running Liberals.

Charest may still get swept away next year by one of the half-dozen new parties that have sprung up in Quebec, but at this time last year everyone assumed he was toast. Most felt he was foolish to stay on and, if he did, it would only be to go down with the ship.

Now, he has a 10-point lead in the polls. This guy is either one of the most talented politicians of his generation, or one of the luckiest. Or both.

Campbell Resigns

One of the most interesting story lines in Canadian politics over the past year has been the fate of the three Liberal Titans - Dalton McGuinty, Jean Charest, and Gordon Campbell. Their political background, beliefs, and styles are very different, but they've dominated the political landscape in Canada for close to a decade. Hell, the federal Liberals have gone through four leaders since this trio took power of the country's three largest provinces at the start of the decade.

Sure, they all had setbacks - Campbell's famous DUI, McGuinty's broken promise, and Charest's near-defeat in 2007. But up until recently, things were going swimmingly for them.

McGuinty trounced John Tory in 2007, leaving the provincial PCs in complete disarray. Charest bounced back in 2008, capturing a majority government. Gordon Campbell took a third straight majority in 2009, in a province where Premiers usually wear out their welcome before the paint dries in their office.

But ever since Campbell's re-election, the trio has fallen on hard times. The HST burned McGuinty first, then Campbell. And Jean Charest has had to fend off daily scandals. In a recent Angus Reid survey, Campbell's approval rating came in at 9%. Charest and McGuinty haven't done much better themselves lately.

So Campbell decided to pack it up, in an attempt to save his party from an electoral wipe-out in 2013. McGuinty is ready to run for a third term and might very well win it. As for Charest - the man is a fighter and comes back to life more often than slasher film villains, but it wouldn't at all surprise me to see him make the same call as Campbell early next year.

Outside of the three Liberal Titans, Danny Williams is the only current Premier who has managed to win re-election. And Danny, being Danny, is an exception in every sense.

Maybe it's part of a larger "time for a change" mood sweeping the nation. Maybe it's just a coincidence in timing. But even if McGuinty is re-elected next year, he's going to be surrounded by a lot of fresh blood on the provincial scene.

Provincial Uprising

Angus Reid has updated their Premier approval numbers from November and it's not rosy - only 2 of the 10 Premiers crack the 30% approval barrier.

And suddenly, Stephen Harper's underwhelming poll numbers start looking a lot more whelming by comparison. The man has struggled of late and may spend his life chasing an unobtainable majority, but at a time when voters are P.O.'d at governments coast-to-coast, he's still Canadians' top choice for Prime Minister.

The Premiers

Danny Williams 80% approve, 11% disapprove
Brad Wall 56% approve, 24% disapprove
Greg Selinger 27% approve, 28% disapprove
Darrel Dexter 23% approve, 53% disapprove
Gordon Campbell 23% approve, 60% disapprove
Jean Charest 22% approve, 53% disapprove
Dalton McGuinty 21% approve, 52% disapprove
Ed Stelmach 16% approve, 62% disapprove
Shawn Graham 15% approve, 62% disapprove

Despite his American vacation, Danny Williams towers over the field. 80%? Crap, I'm not sure Sidney Crosby could get that. The scary thing is, 80% is on the low side compared to other recent polls.

More and more, Danny is looking like this generation's Ralph Klein - he could choke 101 puppies to death in the Legislative Assembly and voters would shrug and say "that's just Danny being Danny". Because, after all, even puppies don't get 80% approval ratings, no matter how cute they are.

What's remarkable is that Williams has done it without the same partisan foundation Klein stood on - it's not like Newfoundland is an ultra-Conservative province, after all. I don't know how he does it, but if you could bottle Danny Williams, a teaspoon of him a day would turn anyone into a contender.

The news is less good for Danny's fellow Atlantic Canadians, who could certainly use a teaspoon or two of the Williams magic.

The biggest loser since November is Nova Scotia's Darrell Dexter, who has seen a 20 point swing in his numbers, most likely due to a series of expense claim scandals. Let this be a cautionary tale to all you kids out there on the dangers of experimenting with NDP governments.

Shawn Graham is now less popular than Ed Stelmach, which tells you all you all you need to know about how the New Brunswick Hydro sale has gone over. The weird thing is, you can't count Graham out in the upcoming election (likely this September) - a recent poll has him just 6 points down. The same holds true for equally unpopular McGuinty, Charest, and Stelmach.

No matter how cruddy the job of "Premier" has become, it still beats "opposition leader".

Remember When...

...Quebec elections actually mattered? From my vantage point, this one seems about as meaningful as your typical trip to the polls in Alberta.

With that in mind, here are some random thoughts on tonight's debate, transcribed as I (kind of) watch it.

8:08 pm: Pauline Marois takes her first two times speaking to complain about Charest calling a snap election. It's a bad sign when, come the debates, you're still hung up on that and have nothing relevant to talk about.

8:09 pm: Mario Dumont came right out in his opening statement promising mixed public/private health care...and he goes right back to it again now.

8:11 pm: Charest asks Dumont where he'd cut the 2 billion he's promising to cut. Dumont...doesn't answer the question. I vaguely recall an exchange like this hurting Dumont during the last election.

8:24 pm: It's interesting to see so much talk about health care, considering how thoroughly that topic was ignored during the federal election.

8:30 pm: Dumont: "when we all go back to the legislature, our parties will work together". Well, that's assuming there are three parties that actually wind up going back to the legislature...

8:42 pm: Is it just me, or does anyone else wish Jack Layton were here so that we could hear more about the kitchen table issues facing Quebecers?

8:46 pm: Marois: "The only person here who has faced an economic slow down before is me, when I was Finance Minister". Hey! She's cribbing Bob Rae's talking points!

8:52 pm: Marois: "It's your responsibility as head of state...". I'm not sure that's a good way to frame things.

9:06 pm: Marois and Dumont go apeshit over Charest calling the early election again. Do they really want to make this their big issue?

9:13 pm: btw, interesting trivia bit. If and when Charest wins, he'll be the first Premier since Duplesis to win back-to-back-to-back terms.

9:30 pm: Federalism! Woohoo! Now it gets interesting!

Marois says the Quebec nation resolution wasn't enough. Gosh, who could have possibly foreseen that it wouldn't satisfy the separatists?

All three want more powers for Quebec. Maybe we should give it to them because I'm sure then the separatists will be satisfied, right?

Dumont, for reasons only he knows, decides to bring up smoking and drugs. This annoys me, because there's no Andre Boisclair to crack jokes about. Get it? "Crack" jokes?

Charest then delivers a fantastic sound byte where he lists everything he's managed to soak down Ottawa for since he became Premier. It's kind of depressing in one sense, but the man is absolutely winning this round.


In Conclusion

Charest looked like a Premier. Marois looked like an opposition leader. And Dumont looked like some random guy who stumbled into the opposition leader's seat by fluke. It might have played differently to a Quebec audience, but I give this one to Charest, hands down.

For those suffering post-election poll withdrawal symptoms

Au Quebec:

Liberals 41%
PQ 35%
ADQ 14%


It's difficult to know what to make of this without having Nate Silver explain it to me - the real question here is what the ADQ collapse means to the other parties. Last election saw the popular vote translate into seats in a fairly representative fashion, but in the pre-ADQ world the electoral map always heavily favoured the PQ.

The best case of that is 1998, when the Liberals got 44%, the PQ 43%, and the ADQ 12%, but we ended up with a 76-48-1 PQ-Lib-ADQ seat split. Now, I hate bringing this up because the PR folks are going to go bonkers, but if the ADQ vote stays depressed, I think the possibility of a PQ win is very real if they can get themselves to within 3% or so of Charest in the polls. And the prospect of a Charest majority would seem to be slim, unless he can stretch his lead out into double digits.

The Other Other Election

Because, in Canada, you now must always signal an election by calling off a trip to China:

QUEBEC and MONTREAL — Quebec voters will likely face another election campaign before Christmas as Premier Jean Charest plans to call an election next week for a Dec. 8 vote.

The stage was set for a snap election when Mr. Charest Monday cancelled his participation in the Council of the Federation's economic mission to China. The trip includes four other premiers and members of the Canada-China Business Council, who are scheduled to meet Chinese government and business leader next week in Beijing, Chongqing and Shanghai. Last Thursday, Mr.Charest, who chairs the Council of the Federation, repeated that he intended to be part of the China mission.

The Small Men of Confederation

With Charest more popular than ever in Quebec, John Baird decides to go on the attack:

QUEBEC CITY–An Ontario-Quebec accord on climate change has yet to be officially unveiled, but Ottawa is already slamming it as nothing more than "smoke and mirrors."

Premier Dalton McGuinty and Quebec Premier Jean Charest are to release their proposal for an inter-provincial carbon-trading market at a joint meeting of their cabinets here today.

Under this so-called cap-and-trade system, companies that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions than their caps permit could sell their unused quota on an open market to big polluting firms that exceed their emissions cap.

The leaders of Canada's two largest provinces say their historic deal proves they are leading the fight to save the environment, and they made it clear they believe the federal government is dragging its feet on climate change.

But federal Environment Minister John Baird yesterday dismissed the premiers' proposal, telling the Star the scheme is virtually meaningless without an enforcement component to punish polluters.

[...]

But Baird, speaking from Ottawa, said that "a trading regime is only good if you have laws forcing big polluters to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions."

"This could give big polluters another three or four years before they're forced to do anything," he said, urging the provinces to buy into federal proposals intended to cut Canada's greenhouse gas emissions to 20 per cent below 2006 levels by 2020 and penalize scofflaws.

For those who missed Baird’s QP interview on Sunday, it was truly something else. In it, he praised Mike Harris and the Alberta government for the their efforts to cut emissions, while repeatedly lashing out at McGuinty and Charest. All of this on an issue he could have dismissed with a “this isn’t the most effective way to go about it in our opinion, but we welcome any moves the Premiers make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions”.

Not that gratuitous attacks on McGuinty are newsworthy – but Charest? Vewy Intewesting…

Are you now or have you ever been a Bruins fan?

Sports and politics often clash, and while the Olympics seem to be the real hot button issue of late, it’s Canada and it’s payoff time, so it’s not too surprising that pucks and politics have become intertwined yet again.

The latest round of controversy comes from Quebec. The Mayor of Montreal has demanded that local firefighters take down Habs logos painted on fire stations – by the time this one is done, this may make David Miller and Dave Bronconnier’s headaches over “support our troops” decals seem mild by comparison. We’ve already seen the CP headline “Montreal Mayor Defends Team Spirit”. I’m sure we can expect “Mayor denies ties to Zdeno Chara”, “Protesters demand Mayor wear jersey”, and “Mayor resigns amid Habs-gate scandal” headlines in the weeks ahead.

Also in hot water is Michael Fortier. The Senator appears to be far more forthcoming with his hockey opinions than with government polling reports, telling reporters he believes the New York Rangers will win the Stanley Cup. Uh-oh. Certainly a valid hockey opinion, but you have to wonder how the guy ever got elected in Montreal saying things like…what? Oh right.

So, anyways, Dion hears this and decides to score some points in Quebec so he goes and chews out Fortier for not having faith in the Habs. Unfortunately, a smart assed reporter asks Dion who Montreal is playing in the first round of the playoffs and Dion hums and haws until his aid jumps in with the answer. Oops. I guess it’s not too surprising that, given his blind faith in the Liberal Quebec election readiness team, he’d also have blind faith in the Canadiens.

Stephen Harper has yet to comment on the playoffs but this time of the year is no doubt difficult for a closet Leafs fan like him. Luckily, Jim Flaherty has jumped in to let Quebecers know that, yes, the Conservative Party’s respect for Quebec goes beyond the nation resolution, and includes a love of all things bleu blanc rouge. Although it's not mentioned in the article, I can only assume that Flaherty went on to blame Dalton McGuinty for the Leafs’ missing the playoffs.

Also showing a lack of faith is Mario Dumont, who has picked the Sharks to win the Cup. That prompted the following rebuke from Jean Charest, which I can only hope (but doubt) was tongue in cheek: "Mr. Dumont will have to explain to Quebecers. ... That is unacceptable." No word on Pauline Marois’ view but one assumes she’s just pissed that the team is called “Canadiens”.

All of this and we're just a few games into the first round! And you just know Denis Coderre is already drafting his witness list for the inquiry into Shane Doan’s upcoming re-appointment as Team Canada captain. So stay tuned.

2007 Man of the Year

It's that time of year again when everyone picks their person of the year...or cops out and does something incredibly lame. So, always one to follow suit, it's time for the prestigious Calgary Grit person of the year selection. As was the case over the past three years when Michael Ignatieff, Belinda Stronach, and Ralph Klein were crowned, this doesn't go to my favourite politician, the best politician, or even necessarily a good politician. It goes to an individual who had a big impact on Canadian politics. And, when possible, I try to resist the urge to go with the big party leaders in Ottawa because that's a bit easy. So, without further adieu, votre gagnant:



Despite all the election speculation and viciousness in Ottawa, 2007 in Canadian politics was all about the provinces with six provincial elections and a new era of inter provincial bickering. And while a good case could be made for crowning Dalton McGuinty, Brad Wall, or Danny Williams, much like Forrest Gump, Jean Charest just seemed to be in the centre of everything this year. Hell, he even made a cameo appearance or two in the Mulroney-Schreyber affair. The debate on reasonable accommodation that spread across Canada was at its most intense in Quebec, with Charest establishing the Bouchard-Taylor commission to study the issue.

On the national stage, Charest's drive for re-election led to a massive influx of cash from Ottawa to ensure the election of the most federalist Premier in Stephen Harper's lifetime. When Charest turned the cash around into a 700 million dollar tax break in less time than a Gilles Duceppe leadership run, he pretty much exposed the fiscal imbalance hype as being nothing more than a mythical creature. It also set off a new round of bickering between the provinces and Ottawa that featured attack ads and lawsuits. And, if the polls are to be believed, the tax cuts were about as popular in Quebec as they were outside the province, nearly threatening to bring down his government a few weeks after the election.

As for the election itself, it was far and away the most interesting of the six, with three parties legitimately in the game. The ADQ was on the rise led by Mario Dumont and the PQ was floundering with Andre Boisclair, the biggest bust to come out of Quebec since Alexander Daigle. And while it's hard to claim victory when a majority turns to the slimmest of minorities, Charest did manage to hang on. If you're someone who watches politics like sports (and you probably are if you're reading this blog), it doesn't get much better than the 2007 Quebec election.

And that's why Jean Charest was the Man of the Year in the eyes of this blogger.

Political Suicide

So Jean Charest is ready to die on the hill fighting for a tax cut that 70% of Quebecers are against?

Uh-huh. Yeah right. I'm pretty sure the guy is gonna blink on this one.

Poulet

An interesting game of chicken is developing in Quebec, with both the ADQ and PQ promising to vote against Charest's budget over the fiscal imbalance solving tax cuts. I'm sure someone will blink in this one, probably Charest, since a defeat at this point would probably mean Mario Dumont taking over as Premier.

Of course, given Harper's talking points over the past year, this begs the obvious question: Was all that money for Quebec in Flaherty's budget intended to help defeat the most federalist Premier from Quebec in Stephen Harper's lifetime?

The morning after the morning after

Jean Charest: It could have been worse for him but the man is certainly vulnerable, which means there will be intense pressure from within his own party to resign or, at the very least, rebrand. Minority governments are dicey in even the most stable political places and Quebec politics is the antithesis of stability so it’s really hard to predict how he’ll fare or if the PLQ can afford a leadership race before the next election. Because of that, I’ll predict he stays around until the next vote.

Andre Boisclair: The PQ will be having a leadership review vote this June. Given that the party has been known to knife even their most successful leaders, I can’t for the life of me imagine Boisclair surviving the vote. The timing of the vote certainly opens the door for Duceppe to jump provincially should the PQ dump Boisclair but I can’t really see why anyone would want to lead the PQ these days and, we should remember, he already turned the job down once under far better circumstances. Regardless of who their leader is, the PQ has a real identity crisis on their hands now and might not even promise a referendum in their next campaign platform.

Mario Dumont: Usually in minority governments, the Premier is the man under the microscope but I think it’s fair to say all eyes will be on Mario Dumont. He’s going to have to borrow a few muzzles from his buddy Steve to keep the wing nuts who were elected in check. He’ll also have to show that his party is credible and ready to govern. If he performs well as opposition leader, the next election is his to lose…but on the flip side, if he stumbles, the ADQ could fall back to fringe status next time since he doesn’t have the entrenched voter loyalty the other two parties command. It will be very interesting to see how much pressure he puts on Charest, in particular with respect to demanding more “autonomy”.

The Bloc Quebecois: Is in serious trouble next election. I’ll go into this a bit more as we lead up to the election since it’s not directly tied to the provincial vote but, for now, is there anyone out there who can name one issue they have to attract voters? Because I don't think an anti-scab law is going to exactly capture the imagination of the Quebecois.

Stephen Harper: I don’t necessarily buy the argument that what happens provincially translates federally…if anything provincial governments usually counter their federal counterparts. However, what the strength of the ADQ has shown is that Harper certainly has the potential to gain votes in Quebec. It shows there are Quebecers willing to vote for a party with conservative values under the right circumstances. Now, no one really knows how much of the vote was a protest vote, how much was anti-Montreal, how much was about reasonable accommodation, how much was about Dumont’s personal popularity, and how much was about Charest and Boiclair being universally hated. But the potential is there for a Quebec breakthrough.

That said, outside of Quebec, I don’t see this as a great victory for Harper. The man burned through a wad lot of political capital (and monetary capital too) to get Jean Charest re-elected and the end result was anything but a resounding victory for Harper’s ally.

Balance

Couldn't have said it better myself so I won't even try.

Neck and Neck and Neck

Wow.

Liberals 33%
PQ 30%
ADQ 30%

First of all, I guess I was wrong, wrong, wrong about Tuesday's debate. To me, it looked like Charest had won and Dumont was nothing more than a hyperactive squirrel (think Jack Layton in the 2004 debates) but it seems Quebecers saw it differently or, at the very least, the overpass stunt paid some dividends.

So this leaves the election outcome a complete crapshot. Any of the three parties could conceivably form what will almost certainly be Quebec's first minority government in over a century.

And that is what makes today's proclamation by Andre Boisclair so interesting:

The Parti Québécois would want to hold a referendum on sovereignty even if it forms only a minority government, leader André Boisclair said Friday.

Obviously, Boisclair would never get a referendum law passed in a minority government so he's just blowing smoke up the electorate's ass. But if he maintains that his raison d'être of forming government is to hold another referendum, it becomes hard to see how Mario Dumont could justify proping up a Boisclair government. If you don't believe in the first priority of the government, how can you say you have confidence in them? Especially after the two bickered to no end on Tuesday and have very little common ground anywhere in their platforms.

What I'm getting at is, let's suppose, the numbers above hold and we get a seat breakdown similar to what Hill & Knowlton predicts (two bad assumptions to make, but, whatever):

PQ 49
PLQ 43
ADQ 33

In such a situation, it seems to me that Jean Charest could make a very strong case to stay as Premier, governing with ADQ support. He'd have won the popular vote and could promise a more stable government than Boisclair.

I'm not sure if we'd see a formal coalition, but I do think that if the ADQ does win the most seats, an ADQ/PLQ formal coalition wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Mostly because Dumont doesn't have the talent to make a full Cabinet himself but also because he could probably find common ground with Charest on a wide range of issues.

So will it be Peterson/Rae deux? Peut-être....

Le Debat

Random comments as I half pay attention to the Quebec debate (Fuddle Duddle's got the french live blog going too)...

6:12 pm: I just log on to the CPAC website now as Charest says "you need to elect the best team, I have the best team". I guess the fact that none of his candidates have been busted for genocide denial or racist comments does put him in first.

Health Care

6:14 pm: Dumont promises more private health care.

6:16 pm: Boisclair says that "Charest does not deserve a second chance". I'm not sure if Andre Boisclair is really the person who should be saying that people don't deserve second chances...

6:23 pm: Boisclair says that all Quebecers should have access to drugs. I'm sure Andre knows a guy who can help ensure that...

6:25 pm: Dumont attacks Boisclair for what "his government" did when the PQ were in power. I don't think Andre Boisclair can be held responsible for what the PQ did considering he was stoned most of the time.

Environment

6:33 pm: We all love the environment blah blah blah...this is gonna be a dull round.

6:39 pm: Ding Ding Ding! Boisclair becomes the first candidate to take a shot at Alberta during the debate, lamenting how Quebecers' tax dollars are funding the oil sands. I know! I just hate how Quebec tax dollars keep getting sent to Alberta.

6:48 pm: Let me just say that it's nice to watch a debate where we won't have to listen to hours of post-game analysis about how good everyone's French was.

Economy

6:55 pm: I'm not sure if you can look "Prime Ministerial" in a provincial debate, or even if that's a good thing, but Charest seems to be cool and in control of this one. Dumont and Boisclair also keep going after each other like rabid squirrels whenever they get the 1 on 1 debates against each other which, one imagines, also serves Charest well.

6:59 pm: Jack Layton Andre Boisclair complains about government money going to the banks and insurance companies.

7:03 pm: Dumont produces a document related to the overpass collapse...I'm not really sure what the brouhaha is all about so I guess we'll need to wait until the post game show to see what it's all about.

7:08 pm: Boisclair asks Dumont "what is the room to manoeuvre?" repeatedly. Even the translator gets fired up over it! It looks to me like Boisclair caught Dumont not knowing his facts. WHAM! BAM! You know it's bad when Andre Boisclair makes you look inexperienced and not ready to govern.

Social Programs

7:13 pm: Jean Charest takes credit for increasing the Quebec birth rate. Who does this guy think he is? Pierre Trudeau?

7:27 pm: Charest: "Mr. Dumont, why are you saying the opposite of the truth?". Charest goes on to absolutely own Dumont on the topic of school boards.

Quebec's Political Future (Let's get ready to rummmmble!)

7:32 pm: Boisclair says that Charest accepted Trudeau's constitution. Huh? Charest was, like, 24 then. (hat tip to Antonio on that one)

7:35 pm: Boisclair doesn't answer what his "Plan B" is if a referendum fails. Dumont doesn't answer what constitutional powers he wants. They go back and forth on this for about three minutes.

7:40 pm: Boisclair attacks Charest for not demanding enough from Ottawa. Charest then lists everything he's squeezed out of Martin and Harper over the last four years.

7:43 pm: Boisclair compares the fiscal imbalance to giving a blood bank to a vampire. I'm not really sure how the metaphor works but I'm glad he didn't say "giving crack to an addict".

7:47 pm: Dumont says that the Counsel of Federation is a playground for Charest to go to Niagara Falls, Edmonton, and St. John's. Believe me - I live in Edmonton - and no one would consider a trip to Edmonton as a junket or perk.


So, all in all, I'd say Charest did what he had to do - he looked the most like a leader out there. Dumont really fizzled in my opinion. Of course, I'm sure people in Quebec may get a completely different impression from it so it'll be interesting to see tomorrow's media spin.


UPDATE: It's a small sample, but the overnight polls seem to have Dumont taking the debate. Go figure. (H/T Nottawa)

Only in Quebec...

The leader of the most (only?) federalist party in the province states the obvious that Quebec could be divisible following a "oui" vote.

And everyone considers it a gaffe.

Welcome to the weird world of Quebec politics...