An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership - Part 2

Yesterday, I looked at the ten names being tossed around most frequently for Liberal leadership - Rae, Leblanc, Trudeau, McGuinty^2, Garneau, Brison, Coderre, Cauchon, and Kennedy.

Today, a look at some long-shot candidates.


Mark Carney: The Bank of Canada governor would have instant credibility on the economy and, unlike many bankers, he's not uncharismatic. There is, of course, still the question of whether or not he's a Liberal - but no one seems too concerned about that.


Naheed Nenshi: The superstar Mayor of Calgary set Twitter abuzz when he tried out his French at a Toronto speech last year. I'd love to see Naheed toss his cowboy hat into the ring, but we're still 5 or 10 years away from having this conversation. At the rate we're going, the Liberals will have cycled through another three leaders by the time Nenshi is ready to run.


Gregor Robertson: Like Nenshi, the assumption is that Vancouver's Mayor will one day run provincially or federally. Yes, he was an NDP MLA provincially, but that's never stopped anyone from running for Liberal leader before, nor should it.


Ralph Goodale: There's a movement afoot to convince Goodale to run. Admittedly, his age and his french would make him a long shot, but the race would benefit immensely by having a Western Canadian of his stature in it.


Amanda Lang: To the best of my knowledge, there is only one Liberal in the country floating her name as a possible leadership candidate, but it may not be as far fetched as it sounds. We've seen media personalities jump to politics before, and as a business reporter she could make the economy her issue. And hey, her dad was a Liberal MP! I have no idea how she'd fare in the political game, but the idea of a well-spoken, attractive 41 year old woman from Manitoba leading the party certainly sounds good on paper.


Mark Holland: Young and fiery, Holland can give one heck of a speech. Even if he doesn't run for leader, I'd be shocked if he doesn't try to win back his seat in 2015.


Navdeep Bains: Another young star who lost his seat last May. Bains could count on widespread support from the Sikh community if he ran.


Martha Hall Findlay: Rev up the engine on the big red bus! The darling of the 2006 leadership race would enter this contest with a higher profile and would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media out of the gate.


Siobhan Coady: Any tour of "defeated rising stars" should include Coady, a well liked MP who can ask tough questions with emotion and confidence.


Geoff Regan: As a Liberal MP who has been in Ottawa for a decade and is still young enough to run, Regan should not be overlooked. Jane Taber recently floated his name as a possible candidate.


Jane Stewart: She's an accomplished women, with an impressive resume inside and outside of politics. As the "Draft Jane" team says, "everybody loves Jane". She's said she isn't running, but so has everyone else - we may yet get a "See Jane Run" headline or two.


Sheila Copps: She ran her presidential campaign as if she was running for leader. Even though she didn't win, she raised her profile and put a team together - two things that could be useful should she decide to try for the top prize again.


Jean-Marc Fournier: It wouldn't surprise me to see a provincial politician jump into this race, a la Kennedy in 2006, and Fournier is the name I've heard the most rumours about. Quebec's Justice Minister worked in Michael Ignatieff's office so he has federal connections to complement his 15 years of experience in provincial politics. Of course, with a resume like this, he might have his sights set on Jean Charest's job.


Borys Wrzesnewskyj: The Epoch Times, the must-read source for all your Liberal leadership gossip, reported that Wrzesnewskyj is planning a leadership bid, much to the horror of journalists everywhere who will now need to learn how to spell and pronounce his name.


Robert Ghiz: The 37 year old Premier of PEI has said "never say no" but wants to spend time with his two young children.


Belinda Stronach: She made some noise prior to the convention, so I wouldn't rule out a return to politics.


Andrew Coyne: There are Facebook ads and buttons, making this the best funded campaign to date.


Frank McKenna: You all knew this was coming as the punch line. Yet two commenters on David Akin's blog and one delegate I talked to in Ottawa suggested McKenna un-ironically. Some rumours will never die...


That's 28 names I've floated over the past two days, and I expect we'll hear a few others before all is said and done. By all means, float some more in the comments section.

Given the mood for change in the Liberal Party, it wouldn't at all surprise me if someone we're not even talking about ends up winning this thing.

The ever shrinking Liberal shadow

There's only so much you can read into the critic portfolios assigned to the third party in the house - especially when numbers dictate that everyone gets something. But the Liberal shadow cabinet deserves a bit of attention, if only because it marks Bob Rae's first significant public decision as interim leader.

Among the notables:

-Ralph Goodale is an obvious and deserving choice as Deputy Leader, given his experience and the need to grow the party west of Mississauga.

-In Rae's most notable and encouraging move, Stephane Dion winds up with intergovernmental affairs and democratic reform. True, these are not high profile posts in the Harper government (quick quiz: name the intergovernmental affairs minister), but between the NDP's murky position on the Clarity Act and the number of Premiers jumping into the Senate reform frenzy, this is an important role, and one Dion is perfectly suited for.

-On the leadership front, Dominic LeBlanc takes over from Rae as Foreign Affairs critic, while Justin Trudeau settles for sport, youth, and post-secondary education. Score one for Dom.

-Scott Brison is back in Finance, a critic role he is familiar with and performs well at.

-Hedy Fry and Geoff Regan get big promotions to Health Care and Industry.

Ridings to Watch - Saskatoba

Yesterday, I looked at Alberta. Today, we head east. Keep in mind, there's not a lot of polling data from the Prairies, so this is a fairly superficial overview. Any intel those of you on the ground have is greatly appreciated!


Wascana

There are some certainties in life. Sun goes up, sun goes down. Tide goes in, tide goes out. Ralph Goodale wins in Wascana.


Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

This riding has switched sides every election since its creation in 1997, so it's hard to give Tory Rob Clarke too much of an incumbency boost. The local candidate makes a huge difference here, and the aboriginal vote is key, so it's a bit of a wild card and not necessarily a riding that will follow national trends. Word on the ground is that NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph is quite popular, so a third-to-first swing for the Dippers isn't out of the question.


Other NDP Hopes in Tommy Douglas Country

The projection model gives the NDP a decent shot at winning back Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Palliser.


Liberal Long Shots

The Liberals are hopeful about Monica Lysack's chances in Lumsden Lake Centre, which they came within 122 votes of taking in 2004. Moving up the charts in this riding is also the Polka King, NDP candidate Brian Sklar.


The Liberals are also targeting Saskatoon-Humbolt, where Tory incumbent Brad Trost has gotten himself into some hot water. Liberal candidate and city councillor Darren Hill has been working the riding for quite some time though here, like in Lumsden, there's a lot of ground to make up.


Winnipeg

The Liberals have a pair of Winnipeg MPs - Anita Neville, who has represented Winnipeg South Centre for 11 years, and Kevin Lamoureux, who has represented Winnipeg North for 5 months. Of the two, Lamoureux is likely in tougher, with Bill Blaikie's daughter, Rebecca, trying to win back this former NDP stronghold.

Even if Winnipeg North falls, Saint Boniface and Winnipeg South remain possible grit pick-ups if things break their way. Beyond that, Kildonan-St.Paul is the only other seat in play, and it would only flip to the NDP if the orange wave really picks up steam out west.


Elsewhere in Manitoba

The Liberals couldn't hold Churchill with Tina Keeper last election, so we can likely mark this one down as an NDP hold. The rest of the seats in Manitoba are as Tory as they get.

Michael Ignatieff Recalibrates

The Liberals released their new critic lineup for the fall. Among the highlights:

-Ralph Goodale becomes Deputy Leader. Some will see this as a slight to Rae who had been the de facto Number 2, but I think it's a welcome move - Goodale is experienced, competent, respected, and it sends the right message to the West.

-Guess who's back, back again...'Cause we need a little controversy, 'Cause it feels so empty without Denis. Yes, Denis Coderre is back after his one year time out. He gets Natural Resources, squaring him up against fellow Quebecer Christian Paradis.

-David McGuinty becomes House Leader. So it's up to David McGuinty and John Baird to make parliament work. Shall I cue up the election speculation or do you want to?

-In the "demotion" file, Carolyn Bennett gets knocked down from Health to Democratic Renewal (which is actually a good fit for her). Rodger Cuzner is out as whip - perhaps in response to this spring's "we look like fools" debacle.

-Scott Brison is back as the Finance Critic, taking over from John McCallum. It seems like the Liberals keep swapping between the two of them for that portfolio. While McCallum certainly has the credentials for the job, Brison's the better salesman and that's what the job is really all about when you're in opposition.

-Ujjal Dosanjh gets health - he's the former Health Minister so this is a good fit.

-Gerard Kennedy moves to the environment. Martha Hall Findlay to International Trade. Marlene Jennings to Justice. Dominic LeBlanc takes over in Defence, a sign the Liberals may try to make hay out of the fighter jet purchase.

-Justin Trudeau replaces Bevilacqua in immigration. Given Justin's riding and leadership ambitions, he'll certainly be pleased.

-Pablo Rodriguez stays in. Ruby Dhalla is still nowhere to be found.

Vancouver Interviews: Ralph Goodale

At last month's Liberal "leadership" convention in Vancouver, I had a chance to sit down with a few Liberal MPs. Today, I present the first of these videos - long-time Liberal MP Ralph Goodale on the topic of western alienation, and on making the Liberal Party competitive in Western Canada.