Friday Link Grab Bag

A few random Friday thoughts:



1. Don't expect this weekend's NDP convention in Vancouver to be nearly as exciting as Wednesday night. Still, the possibility for riots and/or make out sessions does exist when delegates begin debating a motion to repeal the Clarity Act.


2. Speaking of the NDP convention, FarandWide has a good blog post up on NDP attempts to squeeze the Liberals.


3. The Liberals, meanwhile, will be holding an extraordinary telephone convention this weekend, to determine when we'll pick a new leader. Truth be told, I haven't decided how to vote yet - as I've said before, neither a 5 month mad dash or a 2 year marathon are appealing leadership options. I have writen to the LPC in support of Jeff Jedras' motion to hold the leadership vote next fall - I still think that's too far out, but it beats the alternatives.


4. Kudos to the Liberals and NDP for speaking out in favour of an asbestos ban. I've given the NDP some flack on this blog for choosing politics over principle in the past, but I'll give them props for doing the right thing, even if it doesn't jive with their new role as protectors of Quebec.


5. Samara has a fascinating report out, based on their MP exit interviews.


6. One incoming MP who managed to grab headlines this week was Elizabeth May, who was the sole voice in the House opposing the extension of the mission in Libya and the passage of mega trial bill.

While it's important for May to stay relevant, she'll need to learn to pick her battles - the quickest route to a headline is not always the quickest route to relevancy.

Better Know a Riding - Saanich Gulf Islands

Welcome to part 3 of my 308 part series, Better Know A Riding. Today, Saanich-Gulf Islands. The fighting Islands!

This Vancouver Island riding borders the University of Victoria, famous not just for its large rabbit population, but also its ability to produce Harper Cabinet Ministers - alumni include Stockwell Day, Gary Lunn, and Rona Ambrose (she is still in Cabinet, right?).

The riding is also home to Cadboro Bay, home of the mythical "Cadborosaurus" sea monster (well, according to wikipedia anyways) - so I suppose some residents will believe electing a Green MP is possible.


2008 RESULTS
Gary Lunn (CPC) 43%
Briony Penn (Lib) 39%
Andrew Lewis (Green) 11%
Julian West (NDP) 6%


THE CANDIDATES

Elizabeth May

May got her first taste of politics in 1980, when she ran as part of an 11-candidate slate for "The Small Party" (if the Dippers are still thinking name change...), with May finishing fourth in a four person race with 272 votes.

Her second go around in politics would be (slightly) more successful, losing to Glen Pearson in a 2006 London by election, and to Peter MacKay in Central Nova last election. Following this, May boldly changed tactics, breaking from Green Party tradition and trying to actually win a seat in the next election.


Gary Lunn

Gary Lunn (pictured above with colleague John Baird), was first elected as an MP in 1997, and subsequently has sat in parliament for the Reform Party, Democratic Representative Caucus, Canadian Alliance, and Conservative Party.

He served as Minister of Natural Resources in the Harper government, fired Linda Keen, and was subsequently "promoted" to Secretary of State for Sports. In Natural Resources, Lunn had to decide whether or not to shut down nuclear power plants. In his new job, he has had to make equally important decisions such as "should Canadian athletes be forced to wear seal skins?".

As an MP, Gary distributes the "Lunn Report", something he calls "an invaluable tool for communicating with [his] constituents" - the most recent invaluable edition is from July 2008. In it, Lunn says "As for elections, I would prefer to govern until the fixed election date in October 2009".


The Liberals

The Liberal nomination meeting has been called for September 12th, with 2 candidates vying for what has suddenly become a much less coveted prize:




Renée Hetherington PhD - Research scientist, author and businesswoman

Kit (Christopher) Spence - Entrepreneur and international democratic development expert


The NDP

You may recall the last NDP candidate dropped out after naked-gate, around the same time two other BC NDP candidates were replaced because of drug-related incidents. So, quite understably, the NDP are taking their time nominating a candidate this time around.

My advice to their nominating committee would be to, at the very least, do a quick google search of their candidates before green lighting them.


What Next?

The word on the street is that May will formally declare on September 8th, and will hit the ground running with 100 volunteers on the 9th. She's also apparently shopping for a house in the area.


Can May Win?

Well, it's a better choice than Central Nova. But, then again, what riding isn't?

My running of the numbers pegged Saanich as the second best choice for May and, given that she seems to prefer losing to running against Conservatives than Liberals, it's a logical choice for her.

Greg Morrow has also run some numbers and he begs to differ. But part of his reasoning is the relatively weak ground game the Greens have in Saanich. While I agree 100% that May will win or lose it on the ground, the fact that the Guelph Greens had such a strong ground game in past elections might mean they're already punching well above their weight there. If the Greens have been doing well in Saanich without much of an organization, there's certainly some pottential for growth, since one presumes the Greens will shower the riding with pamphlets (on recyclable paper!) and that Green Party members from across BC will drive down in the hybrids to help May out.

So I'm going to go against the general blog/media spin and say this was actually a fairly solid choice for May. If I were her, I would begin campaigning immediately and spend every day tricycling thru the riding until the writ drops. I know May has said she will stay in the riding for the entire campaign, but it will still be important for her to maintain a national profile - so time should be made for national media, and a few trips to Ontario are a must. And heck, maybe she can even make the time to stop by Central Nova to bug Peter MacKay, just for old time's sake.


Previously Known: Central Nova, Papineau

You May be seated

After her befuddling decision to run in Central Nova last election, Elizabeth May appears to be on the right track:

OTTAWA–The federal Green party is expecting an election this fall and the new, number-one strategic priority is to make sure leader Elizabeth May has a seat in the House of Commons when it's over.

"Now the party is convinced that our number-one goal is to elect me to the House of Commons. So that changes quite a lot of things," May told Green party members in Eastern Ontario yesterday at an election-preparedness briefing.

May says she's ready to switch ridings to make that happen and is now deciding whether she should run in Guelph, Owen Sound or on Vancouver Island in the next campaign.

Her short list also includes Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia, now vacant because of the retirement of independent MP Bill Casey, a former Conservative.

The Green leader confirmed publicly for the first time yesterday that she's unlikely to run again in Central Nova, where she was defeated by Defence Minister Peter MacKay in the 2008 election. (MacKay won 46 per cent of the vote in Central Nova, while May won 32 per cent.)

The party is polling and testing the ground, in an unprecedented way, May said, in ridings such as Guelph, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, and Saanich-Gulf Islands, where the Greens did well last year.

Having recently updated my election spreadsheet, I figured I'd have some fun and try and look at where May stands the best chance of winning.

To get a rough idea, I took the average vote totals from the past three elections, and made the following two assumptions:

1. The Green vote will double
2. May will convert half of everyone who currently has the Greens as their second choice. To get these numbers, I averaged out the second choice preferences of the final Ekos, Angus, and Decima 2008 election polls. For example, 18% of Conservative voters and 22.6% of Liberal voters listed the Greens as their second choice, so I transferred 9% of the Tory vote and 11.3% of the Liberal vote in every riding to the Greens.

This isn't intended to predict how May would fare...only to give a relative ranking of seats, based on how close the Greens are to winning the seat (projected Green vote - highest vote total of another party). I did try different variations of the above formulas, and the results were all similar.

So, based on this, what are the ten most winnable seats for the Greens?

1. Guelph (Lib)
2. Saanich-Gulf Islands (CPC)
3. Victoria (NDP)
4. Vancouver Centre (Lib)
5. Ottawa Centre (NDP)
6. Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (CPC)
7. Esquimalt Juan De Fuca (Lib)
8. West Vancouver Sunshine Coast yada yada (CPC)
9. Central Nova (CPC)
10. BC Southern Interior (NDP)

Off the bat, we can strike Central Nova from the list - it's only there because of the increased May-vote in 2008. If you base this on only the 2004 and 2006 elections, it's the 146th best riding for May to run in, further illustrating just how awful a choice it was for her last time. Similarly, I tend to think the Greens are already punching a bit above their weight in Vancouver Centre, as they fielded a very strong campaign there last time, thanks to Adriane Carr.

Looking at the other 8 ridings, there's a case to be made for pretty much all of them, as most feature relatively weak incumbents, and were won on the strength of vote splitting. And the Greens seem to be on the right path, with the three ridings they're polling in (bolded above), all placing highly on my list.

Of the three, Guelph certainly seems the least daunting, with Green candidate Mike Nagy only 11% back last time - with the vote split there, May could take this riding with 30% of the vote. Running in Guelph would, however, mean tossing overboard a young man who has run for the Greens in the riding three times, growing their vote substantially over this period. It would also mean defeating a Liberal, or possibly handing the riding to the Conservatives off a Green-Liberal vote split. Given her previous statements, risking this would be out of character, but it could signal the begining of a shifting strategy where the Greens focus on running against the Liberals (and NDP), rather than the Tories.

So it shouldn't come as a surprise that the other two seats May is targeting are held by Conservatives. May would certainly enjoy giving Gary Lunn a go in Saanich Gulf Islands, as she has been highly critical of the man before. But, then again, knocking off a lower-profile target like Larry Miller (I'd wager most of his own family members haven't even heard of him) in Bruce, might be easier. On the flip side, the Green vote sky rocketed there last election, presumably on the strength of the candidate (former councilor Dick Hibma), the Greens had running.

So, taken all together, I'd expect May to make a run at Lunn. Either way, she should decide soon, and spend August and September tricycling through the riding, because direct voter contact will make a difference, and she simply won't have the time to do a lot of it during a national election campaign.

A Green Wave Sweeps Across Quebec

The latest Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe poll raises some interesting questions - the most prominent being "why was this poll released?". Here are the not-at-all-surprising Quebec splits:

Greens 26%
Liberals 24%
Bloc 22%
CPC 17%
NDP 12%

Now, if we take these numbers at face value (ha ha...well, at least play along), there is only one conclusion to be reached: Quebecers, after flirting with Harper, Layton, and Ignatieff, have now fallen head over heels for Elizabeth May.

Therefore, in the interests of helping the Liberal Party out in Quebec, I have taken the liberty of drafting some attack lines, which could easily be turned into LPC commercials. If we act now, we may be able to stave off this Green menace!


Le Parti Vert - sérieusement?

Elizabeth May: Closet Bruins fan

A vote for the Greens is a vote for the tax-on-everything

Elizabeth May: Fraude

I hate anyone who's ever owned a pony. Don't you?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who rides a tricycle?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who liked Stephane Dion as much as she did?

Because caring about the environment is, like, so 2007


Hat Tip - FaW

Election ’08 Ad Watch: Here Come the Greens

Also: Democracy, Poverty, Nature, Economy,

First Impression: And I thought the Tory ads had low production values...

Ad Intent: Introduce voters to May, and portray her as an "anti-politician".

Tagline: There is no tagline! What a maverick party!

Things that Work: I've already said I like the train tour so it seems as good a place as any for a fireside chat commercial. And I'm sure most grade 12 English classes could figure out some sort of good political metaphor for the movement in the background.

Things that Don't: I'm left searching for the gravol...not so much from the train movement as from the idealistic platitudes.

On the Air? Does anyone know if these are actually airing on TV? Given that I was viewer number 201 on youtube for one of the ads, I sincerely hope so.

Cliche Score: The average score for the five ads is about a 3, just for some of the gems May churns out. Among my favourites: "it's not about the politicians, it's about you", "the other parties lost the thread of democracy", and "when you talk to a single mom".

Rating: I'm not going to go easy on the Greens and rate them on a different scale - if they want to play with the big boys, they get treated the same.

With that in mind, the issue ads don't work, because they don't give anyone a compelling reason to vote Green over the grits or dippers. So the economy one gets a D, poverty gets a C, and the environment gets a C - the environment one is especially disappointing because it's a topic the Greens have the potential to hit a home run on, and instead all we get from May are aimless platitudes. The Liberals have done a much better job with their environmental ads so far, mainly because they were willing to get messy and land some punches (and they actually tell people what the Liberals are promising to do).

That said, I'm going to give the "grassroots" and "democracy" ads B grades. And that's because they do give you a reason to vote Green - mainly, as a protest vote. The biggest chunk of Green voters aren't voting for them because of the environment, they're voting for them as a "none of the above" option or because they're sick of politics as usual. So if May can introduce herself to Canadians and play on this, well, maybe some of them will take the time to go vote for her on the 14th.

How Would You Rate These Ads?
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Before They Were Fringe Party Leaders...

For anyone (like myself) surprised by Elizabeth May's strong debate performance, we should have seen it coming. Here's a clip of a a 23 year old May debating a forestry official.



hat tip - CM


In other Green Party news, Elizabeth May has announced she will be campaigning in Central Nova from now until Election Day - smart move on her part...the focus for them needs to be to win a seat and, unless they get a lucky vote split in Vancouver Centre, May remains their best hope (albeit still a faint hope, given her terrible decision to take on MacKay).

Green Book

The Greens released their platform today - smartly trimming down their previous 160 page policy document to a slick 8 pages (including pictures!).

Although I know they'd disagree, from my view it appears the Greens are trying to stake out the left of the spectrum. While the Dippers have become a lot more populist and mainstream under Layton in a bid to replace the Liberals on the left, the Greens seem to be waving the flag on idealism in a bid to replace the NDP as the conscience of Canada. The NDP of old would have certainly been supportive of environmental taxes and a GST hike - not any more. A lot of the language about pulling out of NAFTA and NATO is also very retro-80s NDP.

May's Day

May's in.

The Liberals get what they wanted, and will be hurt because of it.

The Tories get what they didn't want, and will benefit because of it.

You know it's a Canadian Election when...

...the Greens complain about being left out of the debates.

...politicians scape-goat the Alberta oilsands.

...the Premier of Alberta wades in.

...the Liberals promise an ambiguous gun ban.

...the Tories flip-flop on negative ads in a matter of hours (they'll go neg anyone?)


Yes, it's hard to call the first full day of the election a slow news day in the least...it just has a "rerun" feel to it. Among the things on day two that deserve a bit of commenting on my part:


1. Ed: It seems Ed Stelmach has taken a page from Ralph Klein's playbook, deciding to play the role of pundit on the federal election campaign. And, whatever, I can't criticize him for that when you consider that McGuinty and Danny Williams will do the same thing (oh, and Harper too). But Stelmach's moral high ground posturing about attack ads? That, I could do without:

But Mr. Stelmach also seemed to suggest that attack ads aren't the way to win that majority, appearing to criticize federal Tory ads harshly critical of the Opposition Liberals.

“Albertans want to know what you're going to do for them,” he said when asked about the federal Conservative ads. “I don't think they pay much attention in terms of criticizing another individual.”

Mr. Stelmach was himself the victim of third-party attack ads in the most recent provincial ballot and said the increased majority his government won is proof that voters don't like negative ads.

“While you're criticizing someone else, you're not really telling Albertans what you're going to do for the province of Alberta.”

First of all, I'm not sure a PC win in Alberta should neccesarily be the case study used to prove a point about election campaigns. And considering the only reason Stelmach offered for re-electing his government was that the Liberals would destroy the economy and bring in the NEP, it definitely isn't a case study in how positive campaigning works.


2. Early in the Morning: The Tories made a tactically brilliant decision in the last campaign to have policy announcements every morning in order to control the day's agenda. No doubt buoyed by this, they've decided to do daily 6 a.m. smearings of Stephane Dion. Today's run did not go over well.

Gee, who would have thought journalists would be cool to the idea of setting their alarm clocks to 5 a.m. every morning wouldn't go over well with reporters already hostile towards Harper? Especially if the Tories don't plan to do anything other than show off new photo shopped Dion pictures?

At the same time, this provides a great opening for the other parties to set the agenda. A daily 8 a.m. policy announcement by the Liberals could easily allow them to set the agenda, rather than just responding to the Conservative narrative.


3. Debate Debate: I've never been convinced that Elizabeth May should be included in the debates despite her belief that she is entitled to a spot. They have yet to crack 5% of the vote in an election (a significant threshold in a lot of MMP countries) and they have yet to elect an MP.

I did find it odd that the Liberals were pushing for her inclusion while the Tories wanted her excluded. If we work on the assumption that having May in the debates helps her...and that she'll grab voters who care about the environment...and that the Liberals are also fighting for voters who care about the environment...well, you have to ask yourself how May doing well helps Dion, and how May doing well does not help Harper. Even if she tears Harper a new one in the debate, that would only serve to make Dion and Layton look even less effective by comparison.

There was a good debate about the debates in the comments section of this post last week. Reading through the comments, what I'd really like to see would be:

-Four debates of different formats (town hall, youtube, topic specific, etc...).
-Get rid of the separate French and English debates and make them all billingual.
-Open up the first three debates to May and the Greens.
-Make the fourth debate open only to the PM and the leader of the opposition. Make it a Bartlett-style no holds barred debate since, after all, these are the two individuals fighting for the right to be Prime Minister under our British Parliamentary system.


PS - Great to see that Steve Paikin will be moderating the English debate this year!

Third Annual Politicians in Cowboy Hats

2006 Politicians in Cowboy Hats
2007 Politicians in Cowboy Hats

A big thanks to everyone who sent in pictures or posted them on their own blogs. Let's begin the photo round-up with the CP wire story's winner and loser:

And with good reviews from the Alberta media scarce during his time there, who can fault the LPC from pouncing on this and making it the top story on their weekly e-brief:

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion attended the Calgary Stampede last weekend, where he was named the best dressed political cowboy. Wearing boots, blue jeans, a fitted plaid shirt, topped off by a broad-brimmed cowboy hat, Mr. Dion looked like a true cowboy as he walked the grounds of the stampede, meeting with Albertans.

Dion also gets top tough guy Clint Eastwood points for walking into a wild west town, knowing that everyone was gunning for him. So I'll second the consensus and name him "best dressed" for Stampede 2008, taking the title from last year's winner, Harry Chase.

As for the green party leader? Mayday mayday! Call in the fashionistas! Since Liz has gotten a lot of flack for the above picture, I will post a slightly more flattering one of her from Sunday. May also gets Clint Eastwood points for wearing the Canada-USA pin, something no other party leader in Canada would ever be gutsy enough to do:
So what about the Village Person? Well, his psychic may have dropped the ball on giving him the Maxime Bernier heads up, but she's earning her paycheck in the fashion advisor role. Unlike the nerdy Quebec professor, who benefits from low cowboy expectations, Albertans expect a lot of their local PM and ever since leathervestgate, Harper has actually done a good job at looking presentable during the 15 minutes of public appearances he puts in every Stampede. In this picture, Steve gets into the spirit of things by giving a handshake so friendly to a little girl, you'd think she was his daughter.
Another Albertan on the hot-seat following his "Alberta Stampede" comments last year was Ed Stelmach. Now, after winning 72 seats in March, Stelmach could show up wearing nothing but a belt buckle and it probably wouldn't matter much. Come to think of it, wearing nothing but a belt buckle might have been better than this random mish-mash of clothing:
So what about those trying to replace Ed as Alberta's top cowboy? Well, politics are always at play during the stampede and with the ALP leadership race on, this year was no different. Saturday morning saw David Swann's breakfast go head-to-head against the federal Liberal one. For the first time in a while, Liberal MLAs visited the federal breakfast, with Dave Taylor, Darshan Kang, and Kent Hehr eating pancakes with Dion. Meanwhile, the Swann breakfast drew 2000 hungry Calgarians, among them Harry Chase. Still, in our fashion review, we must give Taylor the win over Swann:

Last year's winner of "worst dressed" for a bizarre animal sweater vest, Carolyn Bennett was much improved this year. I'll give her credit - she stampedes every year and appears to have an extensive western wear wardrobe, which isn't bad for a Toronto gal. She's pictured bellow with newly elected MLA Kent Hehr:
Finally, the Liberal candidate looking to replace Myron Thompson in Wild Rose, Jen Turcott, sports a stylish cowgirl outfit. A good try, but how could anyone look better than Myron in western wear?

Godwin's Law

Due to our non-aggression pact, I’m unable to criticize Elizabeth May for, yet again, comparing climate change to the Nazis. Instead, I’ll give her some friendly advice in a new blog segment entitled “How Not To Say Stupid Things In Politics”. Given her past comments, I suspect this might turn into quite the lengthy post series.


1. Never ever compare things to World War II, the Nazis, Chamberlain, or anything even remotely connected to Hitler. Like Jon Stewart says, you know who was as bad as Hitler? Hitler.
2. When you say something that gets you into hot water, don’t try and bring it back up six months later. That’s why you don’t see Scott Reid going around saying "you know, I was technically right on the beer and popcorn thing". And that’s why you don’t see (or hear) Tory backbenchers.

3. If something has been compared to "the political equivalent of a kamikaze mission" (again with the WW2 references...) and you were skewered for saying it the first time...you might not want to call your original remarks an "understatement". Again, I hate to use Scott Reid as the role model, but he hasn't said anything like "you know, beer and popcorn was an understatement; single moms could spend the cash on crack and NDP memberships".


Hat Tip: The greatest political organizer in the world

"Hocus pocus, boogah boogah economics"

1. Elizabeth May is in hot water for comparing someone or some action to Hitler or Chamberlain or something of the sort. Since I'm sure you all came to this blog for my expert analysis, I will offer this profound insight which you are unlikely to see anywhere else: it was stupid of her to say that.

Obviously, Jack Layton is in agreement with this assessment:

"Well, we certainly would have never made any such comparison," he said. "I think it's very unfortunate and certainly not something that we consider to be wise or appropriate."

I agree. Anyone who would compare something like the Kyoto accord to appeasement lacks common sense and good judgment.

Via Aaron Wheery comes this gem from Jack:

"Mr. Speaker, enough is enough. We have been hearing those kinds of comments from the Prime Minister for 16 years since he began promising to clean up the air for Canadians and instead we have worse pollution than ever. He makes Neville Chamberlain look like a stalwart in standing up to a crisis. Smog is sending people to emergency wards at unprecedented levels. The prairies are drying up. We have forest fires like we have never had before. All we get are promises of plans to be brought forward some day. Will he bring forward a plan, yes or no?"

2. Speaking of Macleans, their Instapundit feature gives a nice round-up of the daily news for anyone wanting to get caught up on the news at a site that doesn't sell headlines.


3. The Danny Williams Dave Bronconnier versus Paul Martin Stephen Harper Ed Stelmach feud is is all the rage in Alberta these days.


4. It's always fun to see what different Tory Cabinet Ministers think of the entire "nation" question. Jean-Pierre Blackburn appears to subscribe to the Diefenbaker deux nations philosophy.

Walk the Walk

In today's paper, the Edmonton Sun published the answers from party leaders to 20 questions about how environmentally friendly they live. Not too surprisingly, Stephen Harper declined to participate ("my stylist never picks out make-up which has been tested on animals").

While Jack Layton and Stephane Dion certainly appear to be living environmentally friendly lives, Elizabeth May is in an ecosystem of her own. Consider the following:

-She doesn't own a car or a bicycle...she tricycles
-She owned a pony as a child [not relevant, but I keep thinking of this]
-Her household does not flush the toilet "unless necessary"
-toilet paper is the only paper product she buys
-She buys second-hand clothes
-Her daughter "rejected the offer of a new TV for Christmas because, even though ours was broken, she insisted we try to get it fixed to avoid an unwanted landfill item."


Speaking of May, Jane Taber may have set a record for most anonymous Liberal sources ever used in an article, in today's piece criticizing the Dion-May pact.

May I have this dance?

The big news today is the announcement that the Liberals will not run a candidate in Elizabeth May's riding which is a shocking surprise for anyone who has been living in Bolivia the past three months. Actually, calling it "Elizabeth May's riding" is charitable since it's still going to be Peter MacKay's, even with this deal.

But, regardless, it's an interesting alliance, since the Greens and Grits are giving each other some added legitimacy by doing this. From an economical sense, the Liberals stand to lose 18 grand a year from the $1.75 per vote they'd get in Central Nova (probably less since May would siphon votes off, they save the money it takes to run a campaign and they get the ginormous influx of...dozens of Green voters in Saint-Laurent–Cartierville).

So the real trade-off comes from the legitimacy aspect and I do tend to think the Liberals come out on top here, if only because it gives Dion's environmental platform an implicit vote of confidence and helps out the inevitable "vote Liberal to stop Harper" messaging we'll see the last weekend of the campaign.

The trade-off is obviously that it gives the Greens a bit more credibility. And everyone has a different opinion as to which party that hurts most.


[Coyne's got an interesting take, touching on the optics of beeing seen as moving too far left]

Better Know a Riding

I'm heading down to Calgary for the ALP convention this weekend so no updates until Sunday. Until then, I am pleased to present the first part of a 308 part series, Better Know a Riding. Today - Central Nova! The fighting Novas!

Central Nova is home to St. Francis Xavier University, and its neckless President Dr. Sean Riley (left). Their sports teams are the X-Men and X-Women, although instead of telepathy and flight, their super powers include winning the MacLeans school rankings and...I dunno...chemistry. Alumni include Brian Mulroney, Frank McKenna, and, I kid you not, Ronald MacDonald.


Which MP, described as "the closest thing to eye candy on the diplomatic circuit" by the New York Times has the stuff to lead this proud riding? Well, it's none other than Peter MacKay. Today, I profile the battle royale between Mr. MacKay and Elizabeth May. [The Frog Lady has a good run down here as well]


First of all, here are the results from the last election:

Peter MacKay CPC 40.66%
Alexis MacDonald NDP 32.89%
Dan Walsh LIB 24.56%
David Orton GRN 1.59%
Allan H. Bezanson ML 0.29%

So all May has to do is increase the Green Party vote by 2600% to win the riding. There's rampant speculation that the Liberals might not run a candidate which would be HUGE since, if you assume every single Liberal in the riding votes for May, that moves the Green Party all the way from fourth to third. One other thing which I think people are overlooking is that the Marxists-Lenninists might also not field a candidate this time as part of the "Stop MacKay" movement which might prove to be just the momentum boost she needs.

But numbers only tell part of the story so I've decided to compare the candidates on a few topics to see who comes out on top.


Famous Insults

MacKay: Calls Belinda Stronach a dog
May: Calls Canadians stupid
Edge: McKay. There are 100,000 Canadian voters May may have offended with her remarks. On the flip side, neither Belinda Stronach nor any dogs have votes in Central Nova.

How They Handle Losing

MacKay: Kicks chairs. Spends time with his dog.
May: We'll find out soon enough
Edge: Probably May

Rumoured Secret Alliance

MacKay: Condi Rice
May: Liberal Party of Canada
Edge: Nobody does it better than the Republicans - edge MacKay



David vs. Goliath

MacKay: Become Tory leader by beating David Orchard
May: Become Green leader by beating David Chernushenko
Edge: Chernushenko seems slightly more stable than Orchard so May gets the edge here



Recent Gaffes

MacKay: Confuses Halifax with Toronto at East Coast Music Awards
May: Decides to run in Central Nova
Edge: Toss-up



So, really, both candidates seem quite evenly matched. I'll take MacKay by a nose (which, in his case, could mean quite a large margin of victory...).

Spin Away

The latest Ipsos Poll:

CPC 36
Lib 34
NDP 12
BQ 9
Green 8

So, the Tories go from 14 points up a few weeks back down to a 2 point lead. There's only one logical conclusion to reach; Yes sir, Stephen Harper is steamrolling to a majority government.

Huh?


In other news, Elizabeth May is ready to take on Peter MacKay. She'll lose, but it'll be one of the most interesting riding battles to watch, without a doubt.


UPDATE: Just because I don't feel like starting another post on yet another poll, SES has some interesting numbers from Quebec. Bottom line: Andre Boisclair isn't a very popular man, even though his party is positioned well to get the most seats.