An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership

It's been six months since I last looked in on the field of possible Liberal leadership candidates, and that's because, well, there's not much to report. Apart from speculation surrounding the interim leader, there's been little chatter in the media, on blogs, or in Liberal circles.

However, the Liberal Biennial convention may have marked the unofficial starting gun on the leadership race, as names were floated around the convention hall and in hospitality suites. Sure, most of the likely contenders say they're not interested, but that's unlikely to quiet the rumours.

Today, a look at the ten most talked about names. Tomorrow, a look at some of the sleeper candidates.



Bob Rae

The case for Rae: Even Rae's harshest critics within the Liberal Party acknowledge he's done a bang-up job as interim leader and he's the best politician we have.

Is he a contender? If Rae runs, he'd have an impressive organization behind him. Do I think he'll be the next leader? No, not really. As Rae himself said in May, the party is likely to look to a new generation of leadership. But if you put $10 on Rae and asked me to put $10 on just one other name, I'd have a hard time thinking of someone who is more likely to be the next leader.

Why he isn't running: "I'm focusing on the job of interim leader". Plus, he made a deal with his wife.



Dominic LeBlanc

The case for LeBlanc: Young, experienced, bilingual. Deep Liberal roots, but still a fresh face for most.

Is he a contender? If I had to put a name down on that $10 bet I mentioned above, it would likely be on Dominic. He's got pieces of an organization left over from his 14 minute leadership run in 2008, and seems to be the only "high profile" candidate who has not categorically ruled out running.

Will he run? LeBlanc was bullish after the election, but has been quiet since then.



Justin Trudeau

The case for Trudeau: He's a political superstar, who has the potential to get Liberals and Canadians excited about the Liberal Party.

Is he a contender? If he runs, he will likely win.

Why he isn't running: "My kids are 2 and 4 and I barely see them enough as it is."



Dalton McGuinty

The case for Dalton: He's the most successful Liberal in Canada right now. The man has grown immensely as a politician over the past decade.

Is he a contender? Given the name recognition and organization he'd bring to the table, he'd likely be the frontrunner.

Why he isn't running: He has an ok day job right now. And he "wants to remain married".



David McGuinty

The case for David: If you can't get Dalton, he'd be the next best thing. I likely wouldn't use that slogan on a button but, like his brother, David is experienced, rarely missteps, and has grown as a politician over the years.

Is he a contender? He'd have a better chance if he'd left Ottawa more than once or twice since being elected as an MP, but he's a capable politician and the McGuinty organization should not be underestimated.

Will he run? He's "mulling" a run.



Marc Garneau

The case for Garneau: Bilingual, respected...and he was a freaking astronaut! How cool is that!

Is he a contender? If you buy into the "alternance" theory, it might be a francophone's turn. At the very least, Garneau would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media.

Will he run? You may have missed it if you weren't reading the political pages on December 25th, but Garneau is considering a run.



Scott Brison

The case for Brison: Like Rae, Brison is a talented politician with the gift of the gab - well spoken, with a quick wit.

Is he a contender? His campaign struggled in 2006, but Brison's pitch should find a receptive audience this time.

Why he isn't running: “I don’t want to have one of Canada’s first same sex divorces”



Denis Coderre

The case for Coderre: I'm really not the person who should be answering this.

Is he a contender? Coderre is one of the best organizers in the Liberal Party. I wouldn't expect him to win, but he could very easily carry Quebec.

Will he run? Coderre is considering a run for LPC leadership, Mayor of Montreal, or coach of the Montreal Canadiens.



Martin Cauchon

The case for Cauchon: Has an impressive track record, is well spoken, and could be the key to winning back Quebec.

Is he a contender? Cauchon has been thinking about running for a decade, so I suspect he'd be able to put a strong team together, even outside Quebec.

Will he run? He hosted a hospitality suite at the convention. Of course, we have yet to hear publicly on the question of his candidacy from Cauchon, or his wife.



Gerard Kennedy

The case for Kennedy: I've made the case before, and I'd argue Kennedy was ahead of the game when he talked about the Liberal Party needing to rebuild itself, back in 2006.

Is he a contender? Well, the party has been moving down the "order of finish" list from 2006 (from Dion to Ignatieff to Rae...), so I guess it's his turn.

Will he run? He hasn't closed the door.

A moment of silence for our fallen comrades

The hardest part of last night for me was watching so many quality MPs go down in defeat. All too often, the individual casualties of a blood bath like this are overlooked, and aren't given a proper farewell. So let me take a minute to thank a few of my favourites for making a difference.

Gone is Gerard Kennedy, who I had the honour of supporting for leader five years ago. One of the reasons I backed Gerard was because he was one of the few people back then who recognized the need to renew and rebuild the Liberal Party. We all recognize that now, and I can only hope Gerard will be a part of that rebuilding, even if it's not as an MP.

Gone is Ken Dryden, arguably the heart of the Liberal Party. Dryden is one of the most thoughtful politicians you'll ever meet and he believed in politics for a purpose, not just politics for the sake of politics. Dryden's vision of Canada will be missed at a time when the Liberal Party tries to come to grips with what it truly believes in.

Gone is Siobhan Coady, a rookie MP who appeared to have a bright future ahead of her. She is exactly the kind of accomplished woman we need more of in politics, and she was one of the few MPs who could ask a tough question with emotion, while still avoiding hyperbole.

Gone is Glen Pearson, one of the few MPs able to rise above the hyper partisanship that infects most who go to Ottawa. Pearson talks in sentences, not sound bytes. He was one of the few who genuinely wanted to make Parliament work, unlike the many who only talk about making Parliament work.

Gone is Ujjal Dosanjh, a quality MP. Gone is Mark Holland, a fierce fighter. Gone is Navdeep Bains, a great MP and a great person. Gone is Martha Hall Findlay, the spunky underdog of the 2006 leadership race.

There are others who I've forgotten or just didn't know as well, but who are equally deserving of praise. I thank them all for their service to the Liberal Party and to their country.

Then there are those who never got a chance to go to Ottawa. Strong candidates, like Christine Innes, who I spent much of this election trying to keep up with as she sprinted door to door to meet voters. And let's not forget all those who put their names forward to run, knowing it would take a miracle for them to win. Having volunteered on a lot of campaigns like that over the years, I fully appreciate the kind of commitment and idealism that takes.

Finally, there is the one MP who lost a lot more than his seat last night. Long time readers will know I've always had doubts about Michael Ignatieff's ability to lead the Liberal Party, and I took issue with the way he commandeered the leadership of the party.

Still, I've warmed to the man greatly over the past year, and I always did like the concept of Michael Ignatieff. If I was writing a Canadian political drama a la West Wing, I'd probably create a protagonist a lot like Michael. He is, after all, exactly what voters say they're looking for in a leader. He's intelligent. He has seen the world. He's not a career politician. It's hard not to fall in love with the concept of Michael Ignatieff.

Yesterday, we found out just how easy it is to not fall in love with the reality of Michael Ignatieff. In the real world, politics is a job like any other, and we shouldn't be surprised when the guys who have been doing it their whole lives prove to be better at it than the guy who picked it up in his late 50s. Michael Ignatieff simply was not able to connect with voters the same way Jack Layton could connect with voters.

I'll write up a proper post-mortem on what went wrong for Michael Ignatieff the party leader in the coming days but for now, a moment of silence for Michael Ignatieff the MP, who didn't deserve to lose his seat. We need accomplished individuals like him in politics, regardless of the party they run for.

A lot of good people lost their jobs last night, Michael Ignatieff among them.

Fun with Numbers: 2008 Liberal Breakthroughs

After taking a look at incumbency effects over the summer, I can now dig a bit deeper when looking back at the 2008 election.

Specifically, by looking at subregional shifts in support between 2006 and 2008, and the incumbency effect, it's possible to "predict" how the parties should have done in every riding last election. While predicting something that's already happened has somewhat limited value, it does allow us to see where the different parties "over performed" and "under performed" last election.

I'm throwing the air quotes around because I want to get a few caveats out of the way before I post my list of the 10 biggest Liberal surprises of 2008:

1. This is only relative between 2006 and 2008. So the fact that the Liberal vote in Wascana was only 1% above predicted doesn't mean Ralph Goodale isn't lifting up the Liberal vote there - since he ran in both elections, we wouldn't expect a big shift.

2. A lot of this depends on other campaigns. So, for example, the Liberals' "worst" performance relative to their expected vote was in St. John's East. This isn't a knock on the Liberal campaign in St. John's East - there were a lot of Tory votes up for grabs in Newfoundland and the NDP candidate simply did a better job of getting grabbing them.

With that said, here's a look at where the Liberals had their most pleasant "surprises" last election:

1. Haute-Gaspésie-yada yada yada (+18%): Nancy Charest and her team deserve some real props - all three other parties underperformed in this riding, suggesting this total is due more to her campaign's strength, rather than a weak opponent. Unlike, say...

2. Saanich-Gulf Islands (+17%): ...where the Liberals stripped most of these votes away from the NDP (pun fully intended) - Gary Lunn and the CPC finished exactly where they were predicted too, even with the NDP candidate resigning mid-campaign. Moving forward, the question is whether those floating New Democrats return home, stay with the Liberals, or go Green.

3. Labrador (+15%): I don't think it was a surprise that this riding went Danny Williams Liberal. But Todd Russell tacked on 20 points to the 2006 total, which was more than most Newfoundland grits.

4. Madawaska-Restigouche (+14%): After a nail-biter in 2006, Jean-Claude D'Amours ran up the score in 2008.

5. Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor (+13%): See number 3.

5. Parkdale High Park (+12%): Having represented the riding as an MPP for a decade, Kennedy had a lot more going for him last election than most challengers do. And I can report first hand that his local campaign team did an amazing job last election.

6. Abbotsford (+12%): I'm sure local Liberals weren't ecstatic about their 20,000+ vote loss. But here's the good news - the Liberal vote collapsed across BC and your riding actually saw the party's vote share increase. The less good news is that this riding had a big negative residual in 2006...in other words, the "bump" this time around was mostly a correction after a weak showing the previous time.

7. Winnipeg South Centre (+11%): Anita Neville is one of the few incumbents on this list, as she managed to increase her share of the vote, even as the LPC took a hit across Winnipeg.

8. Humber-St. Barbe-BaieVerte (+10%): Another one of those wild Newfoundland swings. I think the moral of the story is that, when things swing, they swing in unpredictable ways.

9. Laurentides-Labelle (+9%): Pierre Gfeller nearly doubled the Liberal vote here, from 2006.

10. Newton North Delta (+9%): Even though BC was quite inhospitable for the Liberals in the last campaign, this riding remained a warm comfy mat with lots of fur, for Sukh Dhaliwal.

11 to 20: Peterborough, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Random--Burin--St.George's, St.John's South-Mount Pearl, Westmount-Ville-Marie, Yukon, Guelph, Ottawa South, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Thursday Link Grab Bag

1. Tory 10-percenters are mean. They're inaccurate. But, they're rarely stupid. Well, I said "rarely":

A Liberal MP says the latest taxpayer-funded mail-out to his district promoting federal Conservative policies has gone totally off track.

Avalon MP Scott Andrews says the Conservatives sent a so-called "10-per- center" to his riding promoting the Harper government's work to improve Canadian rail service.

There has been no railway in Newfoundland since the 1980s.

I have some doubts this will reverse the ABC campaign...


2. In Alberta, good news for the Alberta Liberals:

If we can sell out both of our Leader's Dinners in Edmonton and Calgary this fall, our debt will be completely paid off. If you'd like to help, please visit our website at www.albertaliberal.com to purchase your ticket now. If you can't make it to the dinner yourself, you can donate your ticket to another keen Liberal who perhaps cannot afford a ticket themselves.

The ALP has been massively in debt ever since I was a member - if they can get in the black this year and start building up an election war chest, this is outstanding news.


3. The nominated Conservative candidate in Markham says the Tories aren't spending stimulus money in his city because the voters had the gall to elect a Liberal MP last year. Stupid voters.


4. And there are some numbers to back him up:

The Liberals are rejecting claims by Prime Minister Stephen Harper that 80 per cent of the $4-billion set aside for immediate job-creating infrastructure projects are underway. Instead, the Liberals say, their research shows only 12 per cent of the projects were underway and generating jobs … Gerard Kennedy, the Liberal critic for infrastructure and communities, said he conducted an analysis of 946 infrastructure stimulus projects out of a total of 1,697 announced. He said his research also indicates Conservatives are directing projects to Tory ridings

For example, Kennedy said, in British Columbia, Conservative ridings had been allocated 13 times as much money as opposition ridings. In Quebec, 2.7 times as much money went to Tory ridings, he claimed. In Ontario, Conservative ridings got 11 per cent more than opposition ridings, he said. He said 14 of the 16 announcements the prime minister has made were about infrastructure projects previously planned or won’t be built for years.

What I really like about this is that the opposition took the time to do their homework, rather than just shouting banal insults in the House of Commons. There's an argument to be made that some of this is because the Tory ridings are more rural, but there's sure a lot of smoke coming out of this one.


5. Kudos to young Liberals Jonathan Pedneault and John Lennard for having the guts to call out the party on their handling of the Outremont non-nomination.

Apparently, Cauchon has been offered Jeanne-Le-Ber to run in. I'd rather see Cauchon in Outremont (where he has roots, making him a good bet to knock off Mulcair) and the star in Jeanne-Le-Ber...but who am I to question Denis Coderre's political judgement?


6. In less controversial nomination news, Stan Kutcher is the Liberal candidate in Halifax.

The Field Narrows

From the initial field of a few hundred thousand rumoured candidates, it’s looking more and more like this will be a three-man race (c’mon Paul Hellyer – it’s not too late to get a team together!). The latest MPs to offer up the “thanks, but no thanks” are Martha Hall Findlay, Denis Coderre, David McGuinty, and Gerard Kennedy. Given the amount of virtual ink I spilled pushing Kennedy’s candidacy in 2006, I feel I should offer up a comment or two on his decision.

Although it’s not what first drew me to him, I think Gerard is one of the people in the Liberal Party who really “gets it”. He made “immigrant success” a key plank of his last leadership campaign, long before people realized that Jason Kenney was systematically winning over support from this traditional Liberal demographic. He was the only Liberal candidate last time who talked about party renewal and offered ideas to re-engage the base. Having been involved with Liberal politics in Alberta, he’s also one of the few MPs in the party who understands we can’t keep writing off the West…having talked with him about this a few times, I think he gets this better than a lot of western Liberals.

And while I know some will disagree with me, I think Gerard was bang on with his handling of the Afghanistan and Quebec nation grenades that were launched into the campaign last time.

I know he has his detractors inside the party and is far from a perfect politician but, despite that, he was one of only four to win new Liberal seats last election, and he didn’t even need a Danny Williams assist to do it.

Now, with all that said, I think Gerard was smart to take a pass (“know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em” yada yada yada). He’s a good candidate now and I would have supported him again if he ran, but he’ll be a better candidate in the future with some federal experience and a few more French lessons under his belt. I also think he can do a lot of good on the party renewal front from outside the race and I hope he directs his energy in that direction.

The Gerard Kennedy Experiment - Deux

Interesting...

Apparently, Gerard Kennedy is leaning strongly to running in the leadership as the party renewal candidate.

It will be interesting to see if the 308-riding strategy can lure Kennedy into the race. Like Obama running hard for delegates in Idaho, Kennedy is the candidate most likely to win delegates where the Liberals have been wiped out: rural BC, rural Alberta, Northern Ontario, etc.

The Race for Stornoway 2

A preliminary look at the field...


THE ROOMATES

Rae and Ignatieff are the two names on everyone's lips, yet again. Both are better candidates than they were last time, when Iggy's newness to politics and Bob's newness to the Liberal Party were major turn-offs. Still, the anybody but Ragnatieff sentiment carried the day two years ago and it remains to be seen if opinions towards these two polarizing figures has shifted.


THE CLASS OF 2003

I'm going to predict none of the other candidates from the last "Race for Stornoway" run this time. Kennedy and Hall Findlay are both young and have made names for themselves in the party - unless they win, there's nothing to be gained for either of them. Brison has already said he won't run and I can't imagine Volpe wanting to give it another go, even if many of his former
supporters are now old enough to vote. Dryden might be tempted to run in an effort to raise issues, but he still has debts to pay off. Bevilacqua, Bennett, and Fry couldn't find enough support to make it to Montreal last time, so unless Carolyn Bennett wants to be the token female, I doubt any of them will make it to Vancouver.


THE 90S GANG

The early focus of the last leadership race was on the big names who took a pass - McKenna, Manley, Cauchon, Rock, Tobin... It would surprise me to see anyone in this crowd jump in when they skipped the more winnable race, but if McKenna or Manley do enter, the entire dynamic of this leadership race would change.


YOUNG GUNS

Dominic Leblanc seems like a lock to run at this point - worst case, he positions himself for "next time" and best case he comes up the middle to win. Justin Trudeau has wisely taken a pass...with his age and the speed the Liberals are chewing through leaders, he can likely sit out the next 4 or 5 leadership races. Will Ruby Dhalla toss her hat in or will she once again take a prominent role on the Ignatieff campaign? Will David McGuinty try and one up his brother?


AND ALL THE REST

Denis Coderre is musing about running as the voice out of Quebec, with Ujjal Dosanjh's name being tossed around as a Western candidate. If you want to wildly toss out other long-shot names from the west, I suppose there's always Goodale, Christy Clark, Carole Taylor, Anne McLellan, Glen Murray, Tina Keeper, or David Orchard. Of course, who knows which of the 75 current MPs think they have the right stuff...or which defeated MPs want to get back in the game. And, heck, Martha turned her run into a safe Toronto seat so perhaps someone else will try and turn that trick.

One thing is for certain - the speculation will be fierce. When the dust settles, I'm gonna say we have 5 candidates, with only three having a legit shot at the crown. But I wouldn't at all be surprised to be surprised. Nunziata anyone?

Liberal Critics Shuffle

-Rae stays in Foreign Affairs, while Findlay and Murray will get eased in with associate and vice chair portfolios.

-In the most interesting move of this shuffle, and one which will probably be overlooked by a lot of people, Gerard Kennedy is the new intergovernmental affairs critic from outside caucus, replacing Dominic LeBlanc (who also holds Justice). Given the recent squabbling between Flaherty and McGuinty, I doubt it’s coincidental that Dion has moved a high profile former McGuinty Cabinet Minister into this portfolio.

-With all that’s been going on in Quebec, it’s interesting to see Coderre shuffled out of Defense to Heritage, and Raymonde Folco dropped. (update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...silly internet is slow updating these things)


UPDATE: Here's the new Liberal seating chart, for people who care about that sort of thing. (hat tip Star)

And can anyone explain this to me?

A Dion spokeswoman said Mr. Coderre will continue dealing with military files in Quebec, in addition to fighting against the Conservative government's Bill C-10 as part of his new portfolio.

(update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...that pesky internet is slow updating these sorts of things)