Mulcair Takes on the West

What started out as musings on the health of Ontario's manufacturing sector has quickly escalated into a full fledged war of words between Tom Mulcair and the western Premiers. It's an important shift in the dialogue, because going to war with the West is a lot different than going to war with the oilsands - after all, you won't find many "save our oilsands" protests in front of Libby Davies' Vancouver East constituency office.

Mulcair picking a fight with Premiers Clark, Redford, and Wall has led to his first patch of negative press since winning the NDP leadership - and rightly so. Calling Premiers who stick up for local industry "messengers of Stephen Harper" (in a tone that makes them sound like a swarm of Nazgul) brings him down to the level of Jim Flaherty, who routinely plays the role of Ontario's leader of the opposition.

I think we can all agree Mulcair shouldn't be disparaging the Premiers on this issue, but it's less clear whether or not this is a shrewd tactical move, or another case of Mulcair not thinking before opening his mouth.

The first thing to consider is the popularity of the people Mulcair is attacking. We know Brad Wall is more popular than God and Alison Redford just pulled off a small miracle in Alberta. However, the third member of this trinity has seen better days and now trails the provincial NDP by 27 points - so it's hard to fault Mulcair for alligning himself with the BC Dippers. Even in Saskatchewan, the fallout from attacking Wall might be minimal, as the provincial and federal NDP received similar shares of the popular vote during elections there last year. Just as there are many western voters who share Mulcair's disdain for the oilsands, there are many western voters who nodded in agreement as Mulcair criticized their premiers.

In the broader picture, the trade-off between votes in the East and votes in the West might explain Mulcair's gambit. To form government, the NDP will need to pick up at least 30-50 more seats next election. Of the 50 ridings the NDP came closest to winning in 2011, just 16 are in Western Canada - moreover, there are only four seats in Western Canada the party won by less than 10% last election, suggesting it will take more than a Twitter feud with Brad Wall to bring Mulcair down.

So there's an argument to be made for concentrating on eastern voters, if you buy that the NDP's road to 24 Sussex bypasses the West. If that's the case, Mulcair's salvo on the oilsands might not be the gaffe its being portrayed as, and it won't be the last time he picks a fight with the western provinces.

Of course, Western Canada will be gaining new seats in 2015, and there's the long game to think about. On that front, Mulcair would be well served learning from the party he hopes to replace. For years the Liberals won elections by scapegoating the West and, in particular, the oil industry. This electoral math equation usually paid off, but in the long run it has left Western Canada a charred dust-bowl for the Liberals, with nothing more than 4 specs of red west of Ontario left on the map.

Even if Mulcair can score a few extra seats in 2015 by playing the regions against each other, it's not a strategy that is likely to pay off for the NDP in the long run.

Happy Anniversary!

One year ago today, Stephen Harper turned an "unwanted election" into his first majority government, Jack Layton and the NDP soared to never before seen heights, and Liberals spent the evening curled up in a fetal position sobbing in the corner.

On political anniversaries, it's tempting to give each party a thumbs up or thumbs down, but the past year has been less clear cut, as the major parties try to figure out where they fit in Canada's new political dynamic.


The Conservatives

It feels like a "Harper majority" was hyped longer than the Phantom Menace – and the end result was just as much of a letdown. After years of being told by both the right and left that a Harper majority would mean an unrecognizable country, it turns out a Harper majority looks a lot like a Harper minority. I hardly think when people warned of his “hidden agenda”, abolishing the penny is what they had in mind.

So if the past year has proven anything, it’s that Stephen Harper has always been and always will be an incrementalist. He has made some changes - goodbye gun registry, so long Katimavik...CBC and Statscan, you can stay, but we’ll make your job a bit harder, in the hope the public begins to question your value. These are bigger changes than he made during the minority years, but the man isn’t reshaping Canada as we know it.

While none of those moves prompted a large backlash, there are storm clouds on the horizon. The F-35 fiasco could tarnish his reputation as a strong financial manager. A stagnant economy would speak directly against the ballot question he was elected on. Robocon could blow up in his face. Bev Oda is still in Cabinet, so that alone guarantees us a few hilarious screw ups.

Outlook: Harper survived year one of the majority unscathed, but he survived with Nicole Turmel as leader of the opposition. The next year will be harder than the last.


The NDP

The past 13 months have been the most turbulent in this “new” party’s long history, filled with highs, lows...and voting delays.

Jack Layton’s death was tragic, but life has gone on for the Dippers. Their leadership race may not have generated the excitement they hoped it would, but they came out of it with the only leader who has a realistic shot at ever living at 24 Sussex, so that’s a point in their column.

With the exception of a few easily forgotten floor crossings, their rookie caucus hasn’t been the embarrassment we thought it would be, so that’s another point for the boys in orange.

Outlook: Mulcair is in the midst of his leadership honeymoon, but he’s been treated to the kid gloves by the Conservatives so far. That’s going to change if Harper ever decides Mulcair is a legitimate threat.


The Liberals

On March 31st, Justin Trudeau knocked out Tory Senator Patrick Brazeau. There haven’t been many highlights over the other 365 days since election night.

That’s not to say Liberal rebuilding hasn’t gone on behind the scenes. The party picked a new president with a lot of good ideas. Today, the Liberals became Canada’s most open party by letting supporters register to vote for the leader. Liberals finally get that the party needs fixing, and I’ve been surprised at the number of new faces I’ve seen at events over the past year – people who joined the party after May 2nd, because they wanted to save it.

In front of the scenes, Rae has performed well in the interim leader’s role, but the “will he or won’t he” saga around his leadership has been a distraction.

Outlook: The next year will be all about leadership, as the Liberals pick the man or woman who will either oversee the party’s death or its return to relevance. No pressure, though.


The Bloc

Can’t say I miss them.

Call me Tom

After the NDP's French ad last week, we get the English version:



The ad features a collection of what I can only assume are average hard working Canadians: guy in pick-up truck with dog, pregnant mom buying groceries, man with tools, young redheaded cyclist, female doctor, and bald jogger. They all seem impressed with Thomas Tom Mulcair and female doctor is confident he can beat Stephen Harper.

Cut to Olivia Chow for the Jack Layton endorsement, and a full suited Thomas Tom to reassure us that he'll carry on Jack's vision.

On the whole it's not a bad ad, though it could certainly use more Mulcair forearm.

Meet Mulcair's Arms

The much-anticipated NDP attempt to define Thomas Mulcair has arrived, en francais at least. In it, we're treated to close ups of Mulcair's forearms (so that the Tories won't dare call him a "weak leader"), then Tom rolls up his sleeves...

...cut to Mulcair in a suit. Why was he rolling up his sleeves in the previous scene? Or is this a flashback? Will we find out in the next ad? I'm baffled. This is season 4 of Lost all over again.

Regardless, Mulcair gets off the key NDP lines: listening, working together, green economy, plan, vision. All good things.

So on the whole, it's not a bad introduction. I wouldn't say it defines Mulcair, but he looks serious and pleasant at the same time, which is the important thing. The ad is about warming voters up to a man with a gruff reputation and, on that score, it should do the trick.

Mulcair Triumphs

Thomas Mulcair is the second ever NDP leader of the opposition after a four ballot victory yesterday morning...and afternoon...and evening.

Although Brian Topp was seen as the establishment candidate and was hyped as the early favourite, we shouldn't be surprised that Mulcair came out on top. Since his Outremont by election win in 2007, everyone has assumed Mulcair would succeed Layton. Although he hemmed and hawed at the start of this leadership race, he was the best politician in the field, he ran a good campaign, and avoided the pratfalls that usually plague frontrunners. As a result, he was able to grow his support on each subsequent ballot - more so than Topp in fact.

As a Liberal, it's easy to scoff after the fact and say Mulcair is beatable. Many Liberals will point to his flaws, especially after watching a very unimpressive victory speech. However, I wrote before the vote that Mulcair was the most dangerous candidate for the Liberals and that remains the case. The NDP have squarely aimed their sights on the centre of the political spectrum, and they have a polished politician to lead them there.

Final NDP Power Rankings

The NDP crowns its next leader tomorrow, and the best we can do at this point is narrow the field down to 5 possible winners. That's a far cry from September when the Brian Topp juggernaut was described as Martinesque.

I made my "secret Liberal memo" endorsements earlier this month, and my opinion hasn't changed since then - I feel Mulcair is the strongest candidate, and as a partisan Liberal I'll be rooting for Peggy Nash or Brian Topp. Or maybe Nathan Cullen, because he's the most interesting candidate. Or maybe Paul Dewar, because that's how I'd likely vote if my blood ran orange. Or maybe Martin Singh, because I'd sure love to see what commercial the NDP prepared for him.

As for who will win, I don't know how many membership forms each camp sold so my best guess is nothing more than a wild guess. But here goes: I'll predict Mulcair comes in around 30%, with Cullen in second around 20%, and Nash, Dewar, and Topp hot on his heels. Mulcair over Nash on the final ballot.

To help size the race up, here's an update on the NDP Power Rankings - how the candidates fare in terms of fundraising, social media, endorsements, and buzz. (click for full size)


The "average share" column is simply an average of each candidate's share of the pie on these 9 indicators. It's by no means intended to be a predictor of first ballot support but, that said, I wouldn't be shocked to see numbers similar to this on Saturday:

Mulcair 26%
Nash 17%
Topp 17%
Cullen 16%
Dewar 15%
Ashton 6%
Singh 3%

The momentum numbers show how these pie slices have changed over the past week and the past month - in both instances, Mulcair and Cullen are gaining the most ground. Mulcair's gains have been primarily due to increased media attention, while Cullen has benefited from some very real gains in donations and social media support.

And this momentum is part of the reason I've predicted Cullen to finish second on the first ballot (that and the large number of BC NDP members). Although Cullen lags far behind on endorsements and his fundraising numbers aren't anything to write home about, he has now matched Mulcair when it comes to the total number of donors, and leads the Facebook "like" race.

February's Dewar poll and HosertoHoosier's analysis of the online preferential ballot, both suggest that Cullen's growth potential is limited, likely due to the divisiveness of his "co-operation" plan. But I expect him to raise some eyebrows when the first ballot results are read off at 10 am Saturday.

The Dippers Vote

Ballots have arrived to thousands of NDP members, who now have until March 24th to vote for a leader.

Originally, the field reminded me a lot of the 2006 Liberal leadership race, with the role of the establishment front runner lacking elected experience played by Brian Topp, the polished veteran who wore different colours provincially played by Thomas Mulcair, the bushy haired do-gooder with weak French played by Paul Dewar, and the party stalwart and consensus candidate played by Peggy Nash.

Since then, the race has morphed into something completely different, with most indicators suggesting a pack of four candidates are chasing down Thomas Mulcair.

For an NDP member's take on the field, the Jurist profiles the candidates here, and places Brian Topp atop his ballot. For an outsider's take and Liberal perspective, I offer my thoughts below:


The Most Electable Candidate

If the end goal of the NDP is to form government, Thomas Mulcair is likely the Dipper for the job. He stands the best chance of holding Quebec and, more importantly, is the only candidate who has seriously talked about putting the NDP through the kind of New Labour transformation that is needed to squeeze the Liberals out of existence and form government. Mulcair has criticized Topp's "tax the rich" platform, and has vowed to reduce the influence of unions within the NDP. When was the last time you heard an NDP leadership candidate bragging about how he "said no" to unions?

Mulcair also stands out in the debates as the best politician and best communicator in the field. He's far from perfect - he's arrogant, has been known to mispeak, is supposedly disliked by many in the party, and lacks the good natured charm of Layton. Still, if I were an NDP member with my eyes set on 24 Sussex, I'd vote for Mulcair.

Of course, if I wanted power at all costs, I'm not sure why I'd be in the NDP. So putting on my "idealistic NDPer" hat and realizing I don't want my beloved party to "become the Liberals", I'd probably cast my vote for Paul Dewar. His weak French would likely mean defeat for a good chunk of their Quebec caucus, but Dewar strikes me as the candidate most able to connect with voters - he's not as smooth as Mulcair, but maybe that's a good thing.


My Selfish Partisan Endorsement

As a Liberal partisan hoping to see the Liberals pass the NDP next election, I'd wholeheartedly encourage my NDP friends to vote for Peggy Nash. Based on her background and the language she uses, Nash comes across as the candidate most rooted in the traditional NDP mould. That's good news for her when it comes to winning the race, but not when it comes to expanding the NDP base in a general election. I've also found her performance during the debates and on camera to be rather underwhelming.

Equally underwhelming has been Brian Topp, so I wouldn't at all be disappointed to see him win. Despite being heralded as an "unbeatable juggernaut" within minutes of Layton's death, Topp has shown himself to be a political rookie lacking both Mulcair's polish and Dewar's charm. At every opportunity, Topp has staked out traditional NDP turf, promising to tax the rich and attacking Mulcair as a "Blairite" ready to "sell out NDP principles".


The Most Interesting Outcome

As a political junkie, there's always a part of me rooting for the most interesting outcome. Did I want Ted Morton to become the Alberta PC leader? No...but it would have been interesting. Was I glad that George Bush beat John Kerry in 2004? No...but it made the next four years a lot more interesting.

In this race, the most interesting candidate is Nathan Cullen, who has refused to back down from his proposal to work with the Liberals and Greens in some ridings. While this idea originally sounded like a hail Mary from a long shot candidate, Cullen has performed well in the debates and is the only candidate from BC - a province with 30% of all NDP members. So don't write him off yet.

A win by Cullen would put the question of co-operation with the Liberals back on the table for both parties, lobbing a landmine into next year's Liberal leadership race. I'm far from sold on Cullen's idea, but it would sure would spice up the political landscape.

Who will win the race for Stornoway?

Leadership races are tricky beasts to project, due to their insular nature. There are few meaningful polls, the media is being spun in twelve directions, and the air war rarely corresponds to the ground war. Name recognition and a spiffy social media campaign are a lot less important than having organizers who can deliver hundreds of membership forms.

So when some compared Brian Topp's leadership bid to the Paul Martin 2003 juggernaut back in September, it was premature to say the least. It would be equally premature to call Topp's campaign dead after a few weeks of bad press, when we haven't reached the membership deadline yet.

The fact is, there's very little for anyone (especially for those of us outside the NDP) to go on when it comes to handicapping this race - but here are how the candidates stack up on a few metrics:


The "donations" and "donors" columns come from the most recent fundraising numbers, with "media" merely being the number of news stories that pop up on a google news search under each candidate's name. The "poll" column refers to an IVR poll of NDP members released by Paul Dewar's campaign yesterday. If you don't know what Facebook and Twitter are, then get with the times.

With five different candidates leading these seven metrics, it's hard to know what to think. Clearly, this won't be decided on the first ballot, and we shouldn't be surprised by anything short of an Ashton or Singh victory.

Inspired by Pundits Guide's look back at the 2003 NDP leadership race, I've decided to go back and see how useful these different factors have been in predicting first ballot support in past leadership contests. Behold the table of correlation values!


The numbers are all over the place, but that's to be expected when you consider these races all had different rules, fundraising restrictions, and voting systems.

Still, there are a few take-home messages.

1. MP (or MPP/MLA, as the case may be) endorsements and fundraising totals are both moderately useful at giving a sense of the race, but they're hardly perfect. After all, Stephane Dion was sixth in fundraising in 2006, and you could count Christy Clark's caucus support on one amputated hand in 2011.

2. Social media may be an important element of leadership campaigns, but there isn't enough data out there yet to suggest it's a good barometer of a candidate's strength.

3. Polls among party members are likely the most useful predictor, though they remain rare.

It should be noted that polls among the public are worthless (correlations generally between 0.1 and 0.4), but every leadership poll among party members I've found has tended to stack up fairly well. Still, the Dewar poll should be read with caution given the source - after all, the opportunity for massaging the data exists, and we know he wouldn't have released the numbers if they didn't look good for him. I'd be a lot more confident in the numbers had someone leaked a membership list to a polling company instead.

But at this juncture, Mulcair has a 9-point lead in the campaign's only poll, has three times the MP endorsements of anyone else, and has the most donors, if not the most money raised. He might still be too polarizing a figure to win, but at this point I'd put down $20 (or $10,000 if Mitt Romney comes calling) that Mulcair will be ahead of Brian Topp on the first ballot.

The Value of Endorsements

The Race for Stornoway

The NDP leadership race appears to have solidified, with nine candidates vying for the keys to Stornoway.

While I doubt any of the contenders are causing Stephen Harper sleepless nights, it's a diverse field which is good news for the Dippers. Every true-orange New Democrat will be able to find a candidate to their liking, and a lot of membership forms will get sold. Nearly every imaginable demographic is represented...all that's missing is Pat Martin to provide comic relief.

It's too early to seriously handicap the field, but a nine candidate field and a 5-month race means it would be incredibly premature to declare this a Topp-Mulcair showdown. Someone will emerge from the pack to challenge the frontrunners, and it's likely to come down to second and third choices.

Pundits Guide appears to be the place to be for NDP leadership news, while Far and Wide puts the candidates under a Liberal lens.

Here, I present a brief overview of the field:


Topp of the Pack

Brian Topp: The media crowned him as the race's frontrunner within hours of Jack Layton's death, though that may have simply been a case of journalists unable to resist a good pun. Topp has the most establishment support, but as Alison Redford and Christy Clark recently showed, that may not necessarily be an asset.

Topp has released a "tax the rich" proposal which should be popular with NDP members, but it's not without risks. I can guarantee eight other leadership camps will be whispering about the Tory advertising onslaught this would bring about, in an effort to brand Topp as unelectable.


The Challenger

Thomas Mulcair: The longtime NDP Dauphin has had a rocky start to the campaign, spending more time complaining about the rules than giving Dippers a reason to vote for him. Still, Mulcair is experienced and is the party's best bet at holding Quebec (at least according to Thomas Mulcair).

Unlike Topp, Mulcair's pitch has been directed more at the general public than the NDP faithful, promising to ween the NDP off their union dependence. He's clearly trying to portray himself as the candidate most likely to lead the NDP to the promised land. That's not a bad pitch - even though federal NDP members might be less concerned with power than most, it's a message that should resonate with provincial Dippers in BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia who have tasted power. Hell, who am I kidding - everyone wants to be in power.


Dark Horses

Paul Dewar: Dewar would probably be my choice at this point if I had a bit more orange in my veins but I'm always a sucker for an underdog. He's a good communicator, though some questions remain about his french.

His urban strategy is smart politics, since that's where the votes are in a one-member-one-vote leadership race.


Peggy Nash: She's relatively well know and relatively well liked, and I imagine she has a good network of NDP, union, and activist contacts to solicit for support. I can't imagine anyone is overly excited by her, but she's the highest profile woman in the race and might have some appeal as a consensus candidate.


Nathan Cullen: His proposal to work with the Liberals in some ridings will help him stand out, but it might make him too polarizing a figure to get the second a third ballot support he'd need to win. He has a strong social media presence so far, and all indications are he'll get his fair share of media coverage.

Cullen also has geography working in his favour. He's the lone BC candidate, and one-third of all current NDP members are from that province.


Long Shots

Robert Chisolm: On paper, Chisolm is a strong candidate - he's a former union leader and former leader of the Nova Scotia NDP. He has the ability to clean up in Nova Scotia, but lack of name recognition will be an obstacle elsewhere. He's going to need to find an issue to call his own, to distinguish himself from the crowded field.


Romeo Saganash: Saganash was the first candidate out of the gate, and is intriguing enough to warrant a close look - he's from Quebec, is fluent in English and French, and has been actively involved with the Cree Regional Authority. I'll confess to knowing little about him, but if his political skills are polished, he's likely to get media attention and could be this season's break-out star.


Martin Singh: Singh is likely the least known candidate in the contest and doesn't have the House of Commons platform to raise his profile. I can't see him winning, but his pro-business stance could help him stand out.

Singh is from Nova Scotia, but launched his campaign in Brampton - his support in the Sikh community could make him a formidable threat in a one-member one-vote contest, and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him in the top 5 or 6 on the first ballot. Growing from there will be more challenging.


Niki Ashton: Ashton is expected to declare shortly, and it's no secret this will be more about raising her profile than about winning. At 29, her support will come predominantly from youth and from her home province of Manitoba. If she does well, she could position herself for a future run in 10 or 20 years.

This Race Is Unfair, Vote For Mulcair!

Some leadership campaigns like to make a policy announcement every week.

For Thomas Mulcair, it appears he had adopted a "complaint-a-week" strategy. The latest:

NDP's Mulcair blames 'whisper campaign' for tough slogging in leadership effort
Candidate says the fact he's from Quebec is being used against him by some party members

Outremont MP Tom Mulcair blames "a whisper campaign" and clever spinning by competitors for a perception he's trailing Brian Topp in the NDP leadership contest.

During a recent trip to Vancouver, the 57-year old lawyer and father of two told me: "The people who spin for Mr. Topp use the word 'front-runner,' as they have done from Day 1.

"But there have been a fair number of polls so far and every one has put me ahead, so I'm happy with that."

Mulcair also cited "a whisper campaign by anonymous sources" about his having a bad temper and not being a team player. "My best calling card to answer that," he said, "is there were 33 people standing on stage with me the day I announced my candidacy" on Oct. 13.

In leadership news...

...Justin Trudeau won't run, but Thomas Mulcair will.

So this sets us up for a Mulcair-Topp battle for Stornoway. All early indications are that Topp and Mulcair will play nice with each other, while their supporters mercilessly smear each other in the press.

After watching Liberals do this very thing for years, I'd caution against this war-by-proxy. You'd be amazed how many people pick a candidate to support just because someone else's supporters come across as complete assholes. By sending their supporters out to do the dirty work, Mulcair and Topp are opening the door for someone like with Paul Dewar or Nathan Cullen to come "up the middle" and win.

I know it sounds unlikely now given all the media attention on Topp and Mulcair, but this is a long race, and things like this have been known to happen before.

It's bad enough the NDP are letting other candidates run

September 2nd: Thomas Mulcair says he won't run for the leadership of the NDP unless the party agrees to hold its convention in late winter or early spring, because he wouldn't be able to compete in a short race.

September 19th: [Muclair] told reporters on Monday that he has truly not decided if he will throw his hat into the ring because the numbers for a Quebec candidate do not add up well. Although the majority of New Democrat MPs are from Quebec, “Quebec is the only province that does not have a provincial wing of the NDP,” said Mr. Mulcair.

I've spent the last hour wracking my brain to come up with a rationale for how Mulcair's musings might help him in this contest, but can't think of anything.

Where do they go from here?

After a week of tributes and mourning, the talk in Ottawa is sure to turn to "what now" this week, as the NDP begins the process of replacing Jack Layton.

Of course, some did not wait that long. Anonymous NDP insiders let it be known that Brian Topp was the "front runner" to replace Layton the day after he died, showing us that anonymous NDP insiders are as reliable and as politically astute as anonymous Liberal insiders. Seriously, it boggles my mind how anyone could think a move like that would help Topp.

Since leadership speculation is now in full swing, here's my run-down of the prospective field. Keep in mind, Layton was elected straight from City Council, so the NDP may very well opt for an outsider again.


Brian Topp

PROS: Played a key role in Layton's revival of the NDP. Very punable name (“Topp spins scandal”, “Topp on top”, “Topp falls to bottom of pack”...the possibilities are limitless for headline writers).

CONS: No elected experience.



Thomas Mulcair

PROS: The party's most respected MP in Quebec. Like Layton and most good socialists, has facial hair.

CONS: Unlike Layton, has never smiled in his life.



Gary Doer

PROS: Accomplished, moderate, well spoken

CONS: Has said he won't run. I believe we have found the NDP's very own Frank McKenna.



Bill Blaikie

PROS: Meets facial hair requirement. Well respected. Experienced.

CONS: Retired.



Paul Dewar

PROS: Comes from deep NDP roots, and has shown himself to be a strong performer in Ottawa.

CONS: Less name recognition than Brian Topp.



Anne McGrath

PROS: Close to Jack Layton. Comes across well on TV.

CONS: Fun fact about Anne McGrath - she once ran for the Communist Party. Didn't know that? Well, you will after the 200th CPC attack ad on the subject airs.



Megan Leslie

PROS: Young, articulate, and seen as a rising star on Parliament Hill

CONS: Fun fact about Megan Leslie - there are no fun facts about Megan Leslie.



Ruth-Ellen Brosseau

PROS: Name recognition, and media enjoy writing about her. Given her complete lack of interest in politics before being elected, odds are she has never been a member of the Bloc Quebecois. Luckiest person on the face of the earth.

CONS: Weak french.



Rocco Rossi

PROS: Described by Rocco Rossi as a star candidate. Will be looking for work come October. A Forum poll shows him as the frontrunner in the NDP race.

CONS: Hasn’t switched to the NDP – yet.



For a more serious look from someone inside the NDP, Greg Fingas has the run-down on 20 possible candidates.

Who does number 2 work for?

If you haven't gotten a chance to rate the latest batch of political commercials, be sure to put on your ad wizard hat and give it a go.

While I didn't include them in that set, the NDP has also released new French print and TV ads (ht Pundits Guide):






You've probably noticed these ads have even more facial hair than usual, even by NDP standards. That's because of the prominent position of Layton's second in command, Thomas Mulcair. It seems highly likely the NDP's Quebec campaign will be placing as much emphasis on Mulcair this election as on Layton.

Although we haven't seen this tactic in recent elections, it's not unheard of. Canadian politics has always been leader-dominated, but the supporting cast can still be used to make a point. After all, past leaders have relied heavily on strong Cabinet Ministers - the Paul Martins, CD Howes, and, err, Paul Martin Seniors of of the world.

If you go back far enough, the Liberals won the 1896 election on the slogan of "Laurier, Mowat, and Victory". And who among us will ever forget the 1872 election commercial that featured John A. MacDonald and George Etienne Cartier strolling through a park together?

So all of this begs the question - will other parties follow the NDP's lead in emphasizing the team?

Stephen Harper doesn't let his MPs go to the bathroom without his permission and it seems highly unlikely the man who insists the government of Canada be called "the Harper government" is going to share the spotlight. And, heck, at the rate we're going, he may not have any Cabinet Ministers left to share it with by the time the election hits.

Gilles Duceppe has fought five elections as BQ leader and is insanely popular. He doesn't need to worry about ever forming a Cabinet so who really cares about the rest of the team? It will be all Gilles all the time on Bloc TV.

As for the Greens? Maybe Georges Laraque will appear. After all, he does have commercial experience. But realistically, getting Canadians to know Elizabeth May is going to be challenge enough on the Green's meager advertising budget...they're a one seat and one woman show.

Which brings us to the Liberals. On the face of it, they seem to be the most likely to try the team approach. They have a less popular leader and a solid front bench. But there are two obvious problems that come from over emphasizing the supporting cast.

The first, more obvious problem, is who to emphasize? Like the Tories, many of their better known MPs come with their share of baggage - Bob Rae, Denis Coderre, and Justin Trudeau are probably more likely to find their way in other parties' commercials than the Liberals'. Sure, you could toss Ken Dryden into a spot because, let's face it, who doesn't love Ken Dryden? But to what end? Having a candidate who once played hockey in a public space that promotes culture doesn't say anything about the kind of leader Ignatieff would be.

Which brings up the second point. Right now, the biggest challenge facing the Liberals is that Canadians don't know much about Ignatieff outside of what they've seen in Just Visiting ads. The Liberals need to sell Ignatieff to voters before they can even think about selling the rest of the team.

Considering this, it's a safe bet that outside of a few regional hits or background cameos, Thomas Mulcair will be the most prominently featured supporting character in the spring election TV season.