Friday, April 29, 2011

Ridings to Watch - BC

After a look at Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, we head West, to the always interesting world of BC politics.

I don't have a lot of on-the-ground intel, so check out Pundits Guide for a great qualitative look at the ridings. I'll provide a brief overview here, using data from my seat projections but, by all means, chime in with your own 2 cents in the comments section.


Liberal Party Outlook

We can likely write off Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. The projection model gives the grits only a 5% chance to hold, and I suspect the "Keith Martin effect" is larger than the incumbency boost I give candidates. Beyond that, the grits have between a 60% and 88% chance of holding Newton North Delta, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver South, and Vancouver Quadra.

The most promising pickup for them is North Vancouver (18%), where Taleeb Noormohamed will try to unseat first term incumbent Andrew Saxon.


Conservative Party Outlook

In addition to the Liberal challenge in North Vancouver, the Tories could be in tough in Surrey North and Vancouver Island North, where my model gives the NDP even odds.

Layton flew into Kamloops today, a seat he certainly could take from the Tories if the orange wave hits the West Coast. The only other seat the Tories have less than 95% chance of holding in BC is Nanaimo-Alberni, where the NDP's Zeni Maartman is trying to knock off incumbent James Lunney.

Oh yeah, and Saanich, which we'll get to in a second.

As for pick-ups, their best chances for gains would be the aforementioned Liberal seats, and Burnaby-Douglas, where they lost to the NDP by just 800 votes last election.


NDP Outlook

Although the NDP are rising in the polls, it's still unclear how many seats they can actually nab in BC. Based on the projection model, their best odds are in Surrey North (62%), Vancouver Island North (45%), Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca (26%), Newton-North Delta (21%), Vancouver Centre (18%), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (17%), and Nanaimo-Alberni (7%).


The Greens

The Greens have released an internal poll showing Elizabeth May ahead in Saanich-Gulf Islands but, keep in mind, this is an internal poll. Possibly one of Elizabeth May's household.

All along, I've felt this seat was a 50/50 shot, and I haven't seen anything this campaign to make me to change my mind. Or, I guess I should say, "to make me make up my mind".

The stakes are certainly high for May, since it seems almost certain the Green vote will be going down nationally. If she can't win in Saanich, the Greens could very well fade into obscurity. No pressure.

Labels: , ,

7 Comments:

  • If the Greens are running riding polls of Saanich every 2 days, they'd have 15 polls over a 30 day election campaign. Even if Lunn had a 5 point lead, simply by random chance there would be a decent likelihood that at least one poll would show E-May ahead. What is telling is that it took this long for her to publicize an internal poll.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 8:27 p.m.  

  • She really squandered the green potential in the federation and in the system

    IMO she's a disaster.

    I wish Bob Rae led the Greens; or that St├ęphane Dion would run post-Elizabeth May. Preston Manning could be an amazing choice as well.

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 8:41 p.m.  

  • So, assuming that Harper wins the election, who at SUN TV gets a Senate seat for this one?

    By Anonymous Robin, at 9:04 p.m.  

  • You didn't mention Vancouver Kingsway, which will probably be a hold for the NDP but initially looked like it might go Liberal.

    By Blogger canuckistani, at 9:14 p.m.  

  • "So, assuming that Harper wins the election, who at SUN TV gets a Senate seat for this one?"

    I think the spot is going to the cop that leaked the story about Layton in a rub and tug (it is kind of sad that, of the many reasons to not vote NDP, that one may be the one to do him in).

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 9:57 p.m.  

  • Liberals are likely to hold Dosanjh and Joyce Murray seats. Hard to see Hedy Fry losing.

    CPC candidates Wai Young (Dosanjh's opponent)and Dona Cadman (Surrey North) are taking the heat for invisibility (harper's trademark).

    Finally, there's a backlash to harper's style.

    Harper's amjority might simply evaporate if this takes place all over the country.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 1:45 a.m.  

  • I think all of the Grit incumbents in BC could be in tough. Fry, Murray and Dosanjh are probably bleeding votes to both Tory and NDP candidates, causing unpredictable vote splits.

    Steve

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:32 a.m.  

Post a Comment

<< Home