Friday, April 29, 2011

Ridings to Watch - Saskatoba

Yesterday, I looked at Alberta. Today, we head east. Keep in mind, there's not a lot of polling data from the Prairies, so this is a fairly superficial overview. Any intel those of you on the ground have is greatly appreciated!


There are some certainties in life. Sun goes up, sun goes down. Tide goes in, tide goes out. Ralph Goodale wins in Wascana.

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

This riding has switched sides every election since its creation in 1997, so it's hard to give Tory Rob Clarke too much of an incumbency boost. The local candidate makes a huge difference here, and the aboriginal vote is key, so it's a bit of a wild card and not necessarily a riding that will follow national trends. Word on the ground is that NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph is quite popular, so a third-to-first swing for the Dippers isn't out of the question.

Other NDP Hopes in Tommy Douglas Country

The projection model gives the NDP a decent shot at winning back Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Palliser.

Liberal Long Shots

The Liberals are hopeful about Monica Lysack's chances in Lumsden Lake Centre, which they came within 122 votes of taking in 2004. Moving up the charts in this riding is also the Polka King, NDP candidate Brian Sklar.

The Liberals are also targeting Saskatoon-Humbolt, where Tory incumbent Brad Trost has gotten himself into some hot water. Liberal candidate and city councillor Darren Hill has been working the riding for quite some time though here, like in Lumsden, there's a lot of ground to make up.


The Liberals have a pair of Winnipeg MPs - Anita Neville, who has represented Winnipeg South Centre for 11 years, and Kevin Lamoureux, who has represented Winnipeg North for 5 months. Of the two, Lamoureux is likely in tougher, with Bill Blaikie's daughter, Rebecca, trying to win back this former NDP stronghold.

Even if Winnipeg North falls, Saint Boniface and Winnipeg South remain possible grit pick-ups if things break their way. Beyond that, Kildonan-St.Paul is the only other seat in play, and it would only flip to the NDP if the orange wave really picks up steam out west.

Elsewhere in Manitoba

The Liberals couldn't hold Churchill with Tina Keeper last election, so we can likely mark this one down as an NDP hold. The rest of the seats in Manitoba are as Tory as they get.

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  • Good luck to Darren Hill vs Brad Trost CG!!!!

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 12:38 p.m.  

  • Gotta love how Liberals are refusing to factor their collapse in the national polls into their thinking: "We came close last time, so we're going to win this time!"

    Should leave someone happy on Election Night.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:58 p.m.  

  • I live in St. Boniface. If anything, GLover will win by even a greater margin over Simard. There are significantly more Glover signs in the francophone area of the riding compared to 2008. The ratio of signs in the rest of the riding is 5:1 Glover. Bad choice of candidates for the Liberals, as Simard was invisible for 6 years in Ottawa.

    By Anonymous Guy, at 2:19 p.m.  

  • Anon - Well, the Liberals have to target something in Sask besides Goodale's seat, don't they? Even if they're unlikely to win, those are the ones they're looking at.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:45 p.m.  

  • Sadly, I live in Brandon-Souris, where the election was over before it was even called. How the Reformacons keep posting huge wins here is beyond me, as they've done squat for the riding, ever.

    By Blogger double nickel, at 4:37 p.m.  

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