Sunday, May 01, 2011

Ridings to Watch - Atlantic Canada

I've already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, and the Prairies. Today, a look at some of the ridings in Atlantic Canada to watch on election night.

With small poll sample sizes in the Atlantic Provinces, it's hard to get a sense of what will happen on election night. Moreover, Atlantic provinces don't always follow the national trends.

So feel free to share any on the ground intel you have in the comments section.


Newfoundland

The ABC campaign is no more, with Premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsing the Conservatives. Dunderdale's influence is certainly less than Williams', but the Tories could take back Avalon, where Senator Fabian Manning is running for them. Liberal Siobhan Coady could also be in tough against the NDP in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.


PEI

The Liberals would love to win back Egmont from Gail Shea, with the Tories targeting Wayne Easter in Malpeque. Charlottetown could also be in play, due to Shawn Murphy's retirement.


Nova Scotia

My projection model gives the NDP a good chance to grab Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Halifax West from the Liberals. The orange wave could also claim Tory incumbent Gerald Keddy in South Shore-St. Margaret's.


New Brunswick

Dominic Leblanc should be safe, but there's an outside chance Brian Murphy or Jean-Claude D'Amours could fall if the Liberal vote collapses. At the same time, Miramichi or Saint John could flip Liberal if things break their way.

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12 Comments:

  • http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/local/article/845937--liberals-ndp-neck-and-neck-in-hrm-poll

    Liberals could flip Halifax from the NDP. Stan Kuther has been running a Hell of a campaign.

    By Blogger Hishighness, at 8:30 AM  

  • That poll result is so close to the actual result in Halifax area in 2008, that no riding would be expected to flip on the strict mathematical models. That's a status quo vote level.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:55 AM  

  • I should have mentioned Halifax above - Kutcher has run a good campaign, and it's one that could flip if things broke well for the Libs.

    Meagan Leslie is a good MP, so I think she'll hold, but it's certainly one that's in play (even CPC could win that seat if things broke their way - lots of students will be gone for the summer).

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:05 AM  

  • I have heard some strange theories about McKay's chances in Central Nova. Do you think he might be at risk?

    I have a feeling that the Conservatives are going to really regret the their election plan of focusing on tactics to peel away some seats in Ontario instead of a strategic effort to build a real movement. A few gains in the 905 might not be enough to replace losses everywhere else.

    By Anonymous Robin, at 11:31 AM  

  • The CPC in Hali? Have you ever actually been here before or know anything about the city?

    By Blogger Josh, at 11:45 AM  

  • Yeah. CPC, like perfume, is banned in Halifax.

    Folks, wake up, rise up, do whatever you need to come to terms with the fact that JAck Layton is our next Prime Minister.

    Get on the big yellow bus, people.

    Michael Igantieff has deflated because the truth of the matter is he left Canada young and Liberal and should have returned matured and Conservative. Because, at heart, he is a conservative like Harper.

    Blue Liberals successfully foisted this guy on the party thinking all Canada wanted was Stephen Harper with a prettier and readier smile.

    Face it, Canada is a union country - it was only a matter of time before Canada's brothers and sisters come home to the NDP.

    By Anonymous Blood Orange Liberal, at 1:28 PM  

  • I've been reading this blog regularly for a number of weeks now, and one thing that has struck me is how many folks there are that nominally identify themselves as Liberals, but appear to be perfectly compatible with the NDP and believe that Blue Liberals have mostly left the party (or should be booted out if they get in the way of a Liberal-NDP coalition).

    So is this really the way most Liberals are thinking? Do you folks really see little to no difference between yourselves and the NDP? If so, I have to ask: if there's no room for Blue Liberals in the party, then what's the point of having a LPC? You'll just be a pale imitation of the NDP and have as much to offer as most pale imitations do.

    By Anonymous Jim R, at 2:29 PM  

  • Jim R is a typical blue liberal who thinks that he's what makes the liberal party so unique. No, Jim R, blue liberals like you are what makes us Liberals lose elections.

    There are differences between us and the NDP. But let me ask you: do you really think the differences between the NDP and Real Liberals are as big as the differences between Real Liberals and Blue "Liberals"?

    I say real Liberals have more in common with the NDP. Blue Liberals would impose Harper-style command and control over Canadians just with someone other than Harper as the figurehead.

    You blue liberals think you can malign Harper personally and replace him with a slightly nicer replica and the rest of us are so dumb, we'll be happy with it.

    Well we aren't dumb. The jig is up. You lose.

    By Anonymous Blood Orange Liberal, at 3:21 PM  

  • FWIW, I'm not a Liberal (or a Conservative, or a Dipper, or a ...). I do not identify with any particular party and I've voted for all 3 major parties at different times. (Note, I referred to Liberals as "you", not "us" or "we".

    What I do identify myself as is a fiscally conservative, socially liberal (within the confines of fiscal conservatism) type of person. And, sorry, but a LPC without the John Manleys and Paul Martins of the party is not a party I would particularly want to see in power.

    And, I'll ask again, if there are no real differences between (Real) Liberals and the NDP, what's the point of a LPC?

    By Anonymous Jim R, at 3:55 PM  

  • Regarding the Island ridings, my thoughts are that it'll be a status quo vote.

    Guy Gallant is apparently running a strong campaign in Egmont, but I really don't think he can beat Gail Shea without some kind of national headwind. Stranger things have happened, admittedly.

    Wayne Easter seems to run the closest of the incumbents, but he should be fine for another term. Lawrence MacAulay will cruise, as usual. Sean Casey should hold Charlottetown.

    By Blogger Sean C, at 4:07 PM  

  • I think Coady is probably done in SJS-MP, the NDP are focusing all their resources in NL here, but she will put up a spirited fight. Right now I expect Manning to be the one Tory returned from NL.

    Agree with Sean that PEI will be the same as last time - Liberals take Malpeque, Charlottetown and Cardigan, Tories take Egmont.

    I *highly* doubt that Megan Leslie will be in any trouble in Halifax with the NDP wave and the Liberals circling the drain. I think Chisholm will edge out Savage in Dartmouth but Regan should hold onto Halifax West fairly comfortably. Gordon Earle will likely edge out Keddy in SS-SM, despite the presence of former Lib MP Wells on the ballot. I too have heard rumblings that Peter McKay could be in for a long night, but I think he's reasonably safe.

    As for NB, I think D'Amours will fend off Valcourt (barely) in Madawaska, but I think Murphy is going down in Moncton. The Tory candidate is fairly high-profile and apparently well-liked.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:02 PM  

  • Josh - no, I wouldn't expect the CPC to win Halifax, but they were only 7 points back of the Libs last time, and they'll probably win the rural parts of the riding (which, admitedly, isn't a huge part of it).

    Either way, I expect Leslie to hold.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:42 PM  

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