Nomination Watch

Allow me to draw your attention to a pair of recent items on Pundits' Guide:



1. The pace of candidate nominations has picked up, but the parties still have a long way to go, if you assume an early October writ drop. The Tories have nominated 175 candidates, the Liberals 77, the Greens 33, the Bloc 21, and the NDP 16. Thia may, in part, explain why the NDP are cool to the idea of a fall election.



2. There's some interesting analysis on political donations here. The short of it is this: even though the Liberals have made monumental leaps and bounds forward with fundraising - to the point where they're only 1.6 million behind the Tories so far this year - they've maxed out a lot more donors than the Conservatives have.

Nomination Watch

A few updates on provincial nominations across Alberta, courtesy of the good people at Daveberta and Alberta Tory. The full updated list can be found here, but I present a few highlights since I don't feel like blogging about Brian Mulroney today:



-In the south side of Calgary, a trio of candidates were nominated this week for the Alberta Liberals. Former journalist and, most importantly, calgarygrit reader, Laura Shutiak will be carrying the torch in Calgary Fish Creek. A good friend of mine, local lawyer John Roggeveen, will be going again in Calgary Shaw; John has a lot of good ideas about how to improve Alberta-Idaho relations so he should be a formidable foe for Cindy Ady. Lori Czerwinski will be going against Dave Rodney in Calgary Lougheed.



-In Edmonton, the PCs have nominated Naresh Bardwaj, Carl Benito, and a pair of federal Liberals, Andrew Beniuk and Raj Sherman. The ALP will put up former Catholic School Board Chair Debbie Cavaliere against Dr. Sherman in what should be a very competitive race.



-Back in Calgary, Lindsay Blackett will go for the Tories in Calgary North West. btw, Lindsay is a guy.



-Meanwhile, in Calgary Egmont, Craig Chandler ally and riding President David Crutcher has been impeached out of the presidency. In the words of Alberta Tory, one down, one to go...

Just In

Justin Trudeau has squeaked out the Papineau Liberal nomination with a first ballot win.

Good news in my opinion. The LPC could use some young blood, and Justin's star power makes up for the loss of Belinda. Best of all, it gets a true hard line federalist in the Quebec caucus (if he wins...).

As for his critics, the man had to work for his nomination which is the way it should be.


UPDATE: Antonio's predictions may have been a tad off, but he does have the final vote tally:

Trudeau 640
Deros 327
Giordano 217

Better Know a Riding

I'm heading down to Calgary for the ALP convention this weekend so no updates until Sunday. Until then, I am pleased to present the first part of a 308 part series, Better Know a Riding. Today - Central Nova! The fighting Novas!

Central Nova is home to St. Francis Xavier University, and its neckless President Dr. Sean Riley (left). Their sports teams are the X-Men and X-Women, although instead of telepathy and flight, their super powers include winning the MacLeans school rankings and...I dunno...chemistry. Alumni include Brian Mulroney, Frank McKenna, and, I kid you not, Ronald MacDonald.


Which MP, described as "the closest thing to eye candy on the diplomatic circuit" by the New York Times has the stuff to lead this proud riding? Well, it's none other than Peter MacKay. Today, I profile the battle royale between Mr. MacKay and Elizabeth May. [The Frog Lady has a good run down here as well]


First of all, here are the results from the last election:

Peter MacKay CPC 40.66%
Alexis MacDonald NDP 32.89%
Dan Walsh LIB 24.56%
David Orton GRN 1.59%
Allan H. Bezanson ML 0.29%

So all May has to do is increase the Green Party vote by 2600% to win the riding. There's rampant speculation that the Liberals might not run a candidate which would be HUGE since, if you assume every single Liberal in the riding votes for May, that moves the Green Party all the way from fourth to third. One other thing which I think people are overlooking is that the Marxists-Lenninists might also not field a candidate this time as part of the "Stop MacKay" movement which might prove to be just the momentum boost she needs.

But numbers only tell part of the story so I've decided to compare the candidates on a few topics to see who comes out on top.


Famous Insults

MacKay: Calls Belinda Stronach a dog
May: Calls Canadians stupid
Edge: McKay. There are 100,000 Canadian voters May may have offended with her remarks. On the flip side, neither Belinda Stronach nor any dogs have votes in Central Nova.

How They Handle Losing

MacKay: Kicks chairs. Spends time with his dog.
May: We'll find out soon enough
Edge: Probably May

Rumoured Secret Alliance

MacKay: Condi Rice
May: Liberal Party of Canada
Edge: Nobody does it better than the Republicans - edge MacKay



David vs. Goliath

MacKay: Become Tory leader by beating David Orchard
May: Become Green leader by beating David Chernushenko
Edge: Chernushenko seems slightly more stable than Orchard so May gets the edge here



Recent Gaffes

MacKay: Confuses Halifax with Toronto at East Coast Music Awards
May: Decides to run in Central Nova
Edge: Toss-up



So, really, both candidates seem quite evenly matched. I'll take MacKay by a nose (which, in his case, could mean quite a large margin of victory...).

Mid-Week Musings

1. The NDP have a well produced ad up on their site which they are asking donations for to air. ABCer picks up the many obvious contradictions in their plea to air it.



2. Martha Hall Findlay has been appointed in Willowdale. I'm not principally opposed to appointments (of qualified people), but it seems to me like Martha could have won the nomination herself.


3. Bill Blaikie has announced he's calling it quits. His riding has been strongly NDP in the past but it just might be in play now. It kind of sucks for the NDP to lose Bill Blaikie while Pat Martin stays around.


4. Closer to home, Anne McLellan's old riding, Edmonton Centre will be having their nomination meeting next week. Running for that one are Nicole Martel, Don Padgett, and Jim Wachowich. The other hotly contested one is Edmonton Strathcona which now appears to be between Toeffal Chowdry and Claudette Roy (who would make a very strong candidate given her background). Apologies to the prospective candidates for butchering the spelling of at least half of those names, I'm sure.


5. Looks like those out West will need to scour US sites on the net for early election results again next time, as the Supreme Court upholds the publication ban.


6. Ed Stelmach has already flip-flopped on his hypothetical support of the new equalization formula. Best line of the article?

[PC spokesperson Tom] Olsen said he wasn't "sure what [Finance] Minister Oberg was talking about."

7. People are still all a tizzy over Mario Dumont's debate stunt. Apparently 1.7 million people watched the debate which, considering Quebec's population, is quite remarkable.

Nomination Watch

In a shocking move which no one saw coming, it's been announced that Justin Trudeau will run in the next election for the Liberals. He's settled on Pierre Pettigrew's old riding of Papineau, currently held by the BQ.

And with Bill Graham's official announcement that he won't run again, the feeding frenzy for one of the country's safest Liberal seats is in full swing. ABC has the rundown on the rumours, as Bob Rae targets the riding. I got the following e-mail from one of the other aspirants, Meredith Cartwright, which I presume she has sent to virtually every Liberal in the country:

Toronto Centre's Member of Parliament, The Honourable Bill Graham, may retire. Mr. Dion is now under pressure from the party elites to facilitate the nomination of one of their guys into Toronto Centre, including a non-resident male, or conversely to appoint a non-resident female candidate into Toronto Centre.

Meredith Cartwright is working relentlessly to prepare for and win an open nomination in Toronto Centre, where she will be supported by the diverse communities that comprise Toronto Centre.

The nomination process is the point at which most women are shut down and the point at which a leader's support makes a crucial difference.

Please click the below to sign our online petition and urge the liberal leader, now is the time to bring more women and th! is woman to Parliament!

Click here to support Meredith