Alberta Election Pool

On Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a "historic" election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool.

It's simple enough - predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets 87 points minus one point for each seat you're off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question.

Robert Vollman has generously donated the following political book prize packs (shipping extra, unless we can arrange a pick-up in Calgary or Toronto):

1. The Bill of Rights package: One Canada (Diefenbaker), Memoirs (Trudeau)
2. The Preston Manning package: Thinking Big, The New Canada and Roots of Reform
3. The Jean Chretien package: The Friendly Dictatorship, Straight From the Heart
4. The Federalists package: A Nation Too Good to Lose (Joe Clark), Fighting for Canada (Diane Francis)
5. The Obscure Package: The Betrayal of Canada (Mel Hurtig), Navigating a New World (Lloyd Axworthy)

First choice goes to the overall winner, with the winners of the seat prediction portion and the bonus question portion also winning a book pack. So even if you're an Ontarian like myself with no clue what a "Ted Morton" is, never mind if he'll win his seat, you can skip the bonus questions and still be eligible for the prizes, based on a shot-in-dark seat prediction.

Contest will close as soon as the polls open Monday. Please paste your entry in the comments here or at daveberta, or e-mail your picks in to calgarygrit@gmail.com.


Election Results Questions

Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

Alberta Party:
Liberal:
NDP:
PC:
Wildrose:
Other:


Bonus Question

1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
(2008 results here; candidate list here; top ridings last time: Vermilion-Lloydminster (Lloyd Snelgrove - not running), Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Ed Stelmach - not running), Bonnyville-Cold Lake (Genia Leskiw), Strathmore-Brooks (Arno Doerksen), Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (Ray Danyluk))

2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
(Morton won with 57% of the vote last time, but 308.com projects 22-point Wildrose win)

3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
(Redford beat the Liberals by 3% last election, and 308.com projects her to beat the Wildrose by 3%)

4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
(As a PC, Sherman defeated the Liberals 54% to 30% in 2008)

5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you're within +/- 5%)
(Polls show them under 5% province-wide, but they've targeted a pair of Edmonton constituencies, including the one in Q7)

6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?
(308.com projects Hunsberger to lose, but has Leech in a virtual dead heat)

7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
(Candidates: Sue Huff AP, Bruce Miller Lib, Ray Martin NDP, Heather Klimchuk PC, Don Koziak WR; 2008 vote: PC 40%, Lib 39%, NDP 15%, WR 2%)

8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
(Alison Redford PC, Danielle Smith WR, Raj Sherman Lib, Brian Mason NDP, Glenn Taylor AP)

9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
(They're running 3 candidates, the PCs are running 3 candidates, the Greens have 1 candidate, and there are 6 independents; full list here)

10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?
(current polls have them effectively tied)

Alberta Votes Day 20: Notes From Week 3

On the Debate

Reaction from yours truly, Hatrock, Santos, Tougas, and Daveberta.


On Going Neg

1. A former Liberal MLA offers the PCs free advice on how to go neg, envisioning grainy and unflattering pictures of Smith with an ominous voice over warning "Danielle Smith wants to bring American-style health care to Alberta".

2. The master of going neg digs up some old Danielle Smith quotes on abortion and private Health Care.

3. The PC campaign complains about the floor crossers they lost over two years ago and Lyle Oberg.


On the Challenges of Going Neg

Danielle Smith reminds everyone she's pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. Which should remind us why the PCs have had a difficult time painting her as a right wing bogeyman.


On Advertising

Daveberta digs up one of the worst election ads I have ever seen:


And also this kind of cool one:

However, an ad exec once told me that if someone is branding themselves as "not your father's car", it's because they have reams of focus group data saying people see them as "your father's car".


Sing a Song for Glen

The Alberta Party has released a campaign song:



It's no "Ted Morton is the Man", but it's infinitely less annoying than "Sing a Song for Jim".

Speaking of "The Man", he has once again broken new ground, becoming the first candidate to ever post a topless photo of himself on his website bio:

Alberta 2011 in Review

One of my favourite sayings is "If you don't like the weather in Alberta, wait 30 minutes. If you don't like the politicians, wait 30 years." However, the sleepy world of Alberta politics has come alive in recent years and 2011 was no exception.

A year ago, Ed Stelmach was Premier, Ted Morton was his Finance Minister and heir apparent, and David Swann was the leader of the opposition. Today, "feminist lawyer" Alison Redford is Premier and former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman leads the Liberals. Perhaps most shockingly of all, NDP leader Brian Mason shaved his stache.

So for those who haven't been paying attention to Alberta politics, here's what you missed in 2011.


Ed Stelmach and his wife share a lighter moment at his resignation press conference.

The PCs 2011 Year in Review

At the start of 2011, the PCs were leading the polls and nearing their 40th consecutive year in power. Ed Stelmach had won 72 seats in his first election as leader, a 10-seat improvement over Ralph Klein. So, of course, he had to go.

On January 25th, admid rumours of internal dissention, Ed Stelmach resigned as Premier.

Two days later, Ted Morton resigned as Finance Minister, refusing to bring in a deficit budget. Well, another deficit budget - Ted had run a $5 billion deficit as Finance Minister in 2010. Oh, and during the 2011 leadership race he promised to balance the books in 2013 - the exact same pledge as in the budget he refused to deliver.

Despite high expectations, Morton's leadership campaign lumbered along to a disappointing fourth place finish. Some chalk this off to Morton's supporters having already left for the Wildrose Alliance, but I see it as voters punishing Morton for his inability to follow up his 2006 hit, Ted Morton is the man, with a new theme song.

Instead, Gary Mar emerged as the frontrunner, scoring endorsement after endorsement, and leading Alison Redford 41% to 19% after the first ballot. Mar had it in the bag, but then women, teachers, and other left wing pinkos stormed the ballot box for the second round of voting. When the dust settled, Redford was Premier and Gary Mar was lamenting the cruelty of the PC leadership rules over a beer with Jim Dinning.

After her victory, Redford named a Cabinet, cancelled then un-cancelled the fall sitting of the legislature, and kind of kept her fixed election date promise. That may not sound like a lot, but Redford spent a great deal of time "being awesome".

As 2012 begins, Redford is still very much in the honeymoon phase. Liberals are happy that Alberta has its first liberal Premier in 90 years. Conservatives are happy that they're at 51% in the polls. Yes, everyone is happy - except for...


Get with the media narrative people! Danielle Smith is, like, so 2010.

Wildrose Party 2011 in Review

For Danielle Smith, 2011 was a harsh dose of reality. She started the year as a media darling both inside and outside Alberta. Newspapers would routinely profile her under headlines like "Danielle Smith doesn't walk on water - she runs on it!" or "Danielle Smith: Great politician or the greatest politician?". Yes, she led a party which had received 7% of the vote last election, had changed it's name 3 times in as many years, and had 4 castoff MLAs. But her midichlorian count was off the charts - she was universally seen as the chosen one who would bring balance to Alberta politics.

Politics is often compared to High School and from 2009 to 2010, Danielle was the most popular girl in school. Why was she popular? Because she was cool. Why was she cool? If you're asking, that's a sign you're not cool.

But then the new girl showed up and Danielle was, like, so 2010. So how did Danielle respond? She started spreading rumours about Alison. Not cool.

So the Wildrose doesn't smell quite as sweet as it did in 2010. Still, it could be worse. Which brings us to...


Possible election slogan: Raj Against the PC Machine

The Liberal Party 2011 in Review

I usually describe David Swann to non-Albertans as "a less charismatic version of Stephane Dion". That's likely mean but, as the federal grits learned this spring, they could do a lot worse than Stephane Dion. The provincial Liberals may learn the same lesson in 2012.

After dumping Swann, the Liberals went out a replaced him with former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman - presumably on the assumption that what Albertans are looking for is a PC leader...only with NEP baggage.

Sherman is a colourful character. The former medical doctor was elected to the PCs in 2008, then was quit/fired in 2010 after sending off a late night angry e-mail to Ed Stelmach and 40 of his closest friends, where he railed against Stelmach's health care record. (Possible PC commercial in next campaign - "When the phone rings at 3 am...it's probably Raj Sherman calling")

Since then, Sherman has raised the spectre of scandal, bribery, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. At times, he sounds like a Health Care crusader. At times, he sounds like Oscar Fech. Sherman is very much a wild card.

It's hard to say how he'll play with the public, but after a string of dull-as-paint leaders, no one will accuse the Liberals of being boring next election. Which is more than can be said for...


Unlike "mainstream" parties who try to "get votes", the Alberta Party is "doing politics differently".

The Alberta Party 2011 in Review

Much like Rebecca Black, the Alberta Party burst onto the scene early in 2011 as an Internet sensation.

Like most internet memes, this one appears to have been mostly fleeting. Sure, there were highlights in 2011 - Dave Taylor, frustrated with the Liberals' policy of not electing him Liberal Leader, become the first Alberta Party MLA in January. And there was the day in March they got 47 re-tweets. But despite those bright moments, the only media attention on the Alberta Party of late has been "what happened to the Alberta Party" stories.

So how did it all go wrong? Many blame Glenn Taylor, who was named leader in May, after a lackluster leadership campaign. (fun fact: the Alberta Party has 3,169 followers on Twitter, but just 1,200 voted in its leadership race)

I see the Alberta Party problem more as one of "supply and demand" than anything else. Alberta politics needs a third party left of the PCs about as much as federal politics needs a third communist party. Yeah, neither the Marxist-Leninists nor the Communist Party have been very effective, but would a tech savvy, well branded "Workers Revolution Party" do much better? Likely not.



PS. Technically speaking, the NDP are also a political party in Alberta.

This Week in Alberta - Premier Mar?

We're under a month away from the first round of voting in the PC leadership race, and it's still difficult to get a handle on the contest. I'd assumed it was Ted Morton's race to lose, but the media has crowned Gary Mar the frontrunner, thanks to some favourable polls and the vaunted Ralph Klein endorsement.

So, like any good frontrunner, Mar has sat back, promising nothing more than sunshine and puppies and...wait...he said what?!?

Alberta Tory leadership hopeful Mar touts private health care

EDMONTON - Alberta Conservative leadership candidate Gary Mar says the province must offer private health-care options for wealthy baby boomers or risk losing an economic opportunity.

“The thickness of your wallet should not govern your access to medically necessary health services,... but that does not mean there aren’t people who are willing to pay for services themselves,” Mar said Tuesday.

“I don’t want to stand in the way between somebody who is willing to do that and a health service they feel that they need.”

Yes, a leadership front runner coming out for two-tier health care. How about that?

Most have been shocked Mar would enter this minefield, but I like this move from a purely strategic point of view (even if I disagree with Mar 100%). Playing it safe never works for front runners, a lesson everyone in Alberta learned during the Magnificent Implosion of Jim Dinning in 2006. Moreover, I'm still not fully convinced Mar even is the front runner in terms of membership sales and, even if he is, he's nowhere near far enough ahead to coast to the finish line.

The real benefit for Mar, beyond showing people he stands for something, is that it positions him a bit further to the right on the spectrum. Mar is seen to be on the Progressive side of the PCs, and he needed this to shore up his right flank - first against Morton for the leadership and, should he win, against Danielle Smith in the general election.

Sixth Annual Politicians in Cowboy Hats

For a brief history of Stampede fashion, you can read the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 round-ups.

Although Rick Hansen served as Stampede Parade Grand Marshal, all eyes were on Will and Kate this year. I do find it somewhat perplexing how many of the same people who lambasted Ignatieff for his time outside of the country went absolutely ga-ga over our future head of state visiting us for the first time in years. If a 6-day cross-country tour isn't the definition of "Just Visiting", I don't know what is. That said...



OH MY GOD! Will and Kate looked absolutely dashing!!! So young! So thin! So beautiful! And they pulled off Western wear more perfectly than most people who have lived in Calgary their entire lives! Their outfits were, like, so simple, and yet so perfectly perfect. I hereby crown them "best dressed" of the 2011 Stampede - the king and queen of fashion.



This was Naheed Nenshi's first stampede as mayor, and I know many were worried how the man would look in western wear. After all, Dave Bronconnier left big cowboy boots to fill - the man looked the part of the Mayor of Calgary every Stampede, riding 'ol leroy down 9th Avenue. Nenshi meanwhile, went to Harvard, is a University Professor, and spends his spare time blogging about population density rates in new housing developments. And let's be honest, the man doesn't really look like John Wayne (neither the actor nor the serial killer).

However, Naheed hit it out of the park this year. His outfit is irrelevant - the man rode a horse in the parade, thereby making him a Stampede All-Star.

With Stampede a success, the big question now turns to what he'll wear for pride.


FEDERAL POLITICIANS

Usually it's the federal politicians who make the biggest splash at the Stampede - for better or worse. After all, Liberal academics, socialists from Toronto, and environmental crusaders don't tend to have a large collection of denim in their closets. Heck, even the "Alberta boy" himself, Stephen Harper, committed the biggest gaffe in Stampede history.

But this year? Everyone's tired out from the election. Jack Layton needs to spend time with Quebec. The Liberal leadership contest hasn't reached the point where candidates need to parade in cowboy hats to court Calgary Liberals.

Stephen Harper did give a speech about how invincible he is (which always ends well in westerns...), but his stylist really earns her money come the second week of July every year, so the PM once again looked fine.



"Here's a pancake. You'll get your eggs once Canada is out of deficit in 2015."


PROVINCIAL POLITICS

In comparison, provincial politics are rockin' this summer with an election on the horizon, and the PCs and Liberals both in the midst of leadership contests. As always, the media was all abuzz about the chosen one, Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith.



And 5,000 came to the Stampede breakfast, but there were only 5 pancakes and 2 sausages. So Danielle Smith said "bring them to me" and she placed her hands over them. She broke the pancakes and gave them to Prime Minister Harper, telling him to distribute them to the multitudes. Lo and behold, they were all fed, with stacks of pancakes left over. And so the legend of Danielle Smith grew.


PC LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES

The Stampede may be the most important event of the entire PC leadership race. After all, it gives candidates a dozen socials a day to press the flesh in Alberta's largest city. As such, the contenders have all no doubt held countless strategy meetings and focus groups to find that outfit that says "I'm an Albertan, I enjoy a good rodeo, but I don't look like a member of the Village People when wearing a cowboy hat".

So as a public service, I've taken it upon myself to rank the PC leadership contenders choice of western wear.


1. Rick Orman



Winning the "Calgary Grit Best Dressed" trophy will likely be the highlight of the leadership race for Orman, so I hope he savours this. While Orman's outfit isn't Jim Prentice-good by any means, it's the best of a rather uninspiring field. And he gets bonus marks for the 3 cute children in western wear. After all, in politics, nothing beats cute children.


2. Alison Redford



Redford has a bit of a "female Harry Chase" look going on. I know that doesn't sound like a compliment, but it really is, since I consider Chase a stampede fashion superstar.


3. Ted "The Man" Morton



Here's what I said about Ted when I voted him "worst dressed" last year:

Once again, Ted is just trying to hard. When he ran for leadership, he drafted a catchy little country music jingle. He holds "golf and gun" fundraisers. But, really, he's just a university professor from the big city trying to pass himself off as a good 'ol country boy. And, in this case, it shows.

Morton has improved this year, though I'd probably only give the prof a "C-" grade, and the vest above leaves a lot to be desired. However, in browsing the 7 Stampede Breakfast photo-albums on his Facebook page, I did notice he mixed it up and owns at least 2 different cowboy hats, so I'll give him marks for effort.


4. Gary Mar



Here, PC leadership candidate Gary Mar poses with the winner of the Gary Mar lookalike contest.

While I recognize orange is a hot colour politically these days, I'm just not feeling it. I mean, seriously, have you ever seen Clint Eastwood wearing orange?


5. Doug Griffiths



Mercifully, Ed Stelmach no longer wears suit jackets to the Alberta Stampede, but his habit appears to have rubbed off on a few of his MLAs. Quite simply, it's just something you don't do.


6. Doug Horner



Like Griffiths, Horner dons the suit. What knocks him down to the "worst dressed" spot on this list is the cup of Starbucks in his left hand. Quite simply, cowboys do not drink Starbucks.

It appears Yvonne Fritz is equally aghast.

A Beginner's Guide to Alberta Politics, or, "What the @$#! is going on in Alberta?"

Like an oil reserve, Alberta politics tends to lie dormant for thousands of years, only to gush to the surface without warning. And when it does, it's usually messy.

Like the last two weeks.

For those of you lucky enough to not follow Alberta politics, it must have all seemed rather perplexing. A caucus coup against a Premier coming off a landslide victory last election. The Premier and Finance Minister both resigning in the span of 48 hours...Only to be followed by the leader of the opposition less than a week later. Hell, it was perplexing to even Alberta's most rabid political junkies.

So, for those of you in other parts of the country, I do my best here to summarize last week's political geyser with this helpful FAQ.


Last time I checked Ralph Klein was Premier. Who's this new guy?

Ed Stelmach won the PC leadership on the same day and in the same way Stephane Dion won the LPC leadership. Ted Morton and Jim Dinning had spent all of 2006 hitting each other over the head, so Ed Stelmach took his 15% of vote and came up the middle as the compromise candidate. PC members were so sick of the frontrunners that they didn't worry much about Ed's vision (or lack thereof) or his ability to communicate with other human beings (or lack thereof).

After that, the Calgary media ripped him apart for a year, Dave Bronconnier went all Danny Williams on his ass, and voters humbled Ed in a by election.

Not that it mattered. Alberta being Alberta, and Ed being a Conservative, he won a staggering 72 of 83 seats, 10 more than Ralph Klein left him. Maybe seeing that a guy like Ed could be Premier made voters feel better about themselves. Maybe he won on the strength of the insomniac vote, thankful for the cure his speeches offered them. For whatever reason, Ed appealed to voters and Ed won. It's hard to argue with success.

Unless, of course, you're the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.


So why do they want him out?

There are two competing theories. One is that the PCs are scared stiff of the Wildrose Alliance, a party with only 5% of the seats in the legislature but 80% of the media coverage in the province. Even though the Wildrose Alliance has never won a seat in a general election, Alberta has a history of new parties wiping out dynasties in the blink of an eye. A lot of PC MLAs now gaze longingly at the great right hope, Ted Morton, to ensure the dynasty lives on.

The other theory is that the PCs have been in power for so long they don't worry about the things most other parties worry about - like winning elections. Instead, it's all about internal power struggles. It's no secret the PC power brokers don't like Ed Stelmach. They've been waiting to drop him since he won and were the only people more disappointed with the last election results than Alberta Liberals. So when they saw an opening to defenestrate Ed, they didn't hesitate.

Regardless of the reason, Ed was pressured to quit. His Finance Minister and heir apparent, Ted Morton, said he'd quit if Stelmach made him deliver the budget. (I'm not sure if Morton really understood the responsibilities of being Finance Minister when he took the job)

Jean Chretien or Ralph Klein would have snarled, fired Morton, and fought on. Ed quit.


Woah, woah, easy there partner. Wildrose what? Who are these guys?

The Alberta Alliance was a protest party that won 1 seat in the 2004 election. They merged with the Wildrose Party (another protest party) before the 2008 election to avoid the vote split...and won 0 seats.

Then, in 2009, things changed. The PCs tabled Alberta's first deficit in 15 years. People began talking about the Wildrose Alliance. When Danielle Smith was named leader, they really started talking about the Wildrose Alliance.

Although a political rookie, Smith is smart, well spoken, and media savvy. Of course, it's hard for her not to impress when compared to the current crop of provincial party leaders - even the Oilers would look good lined up against a Bantam hockey team.

So the Alliance won the Calgary Glenmore by election. They showed they were different from the PCs by adding a PC cast-off and a pair of disgruntled PC back benchers. There may only be 4 Wildrose MLAs, but they have the 67-member PC caucus scared stiff.

In their current form, it's easiest to think of the Wildrose Alliance as an Alberta version of the ADQ - a charismatic leader in charge of an untested party with some very questionable policies. Luckily for Danielle Smith, the only policy the media seem interested in asking her about is her policy of "being awesome". She might be in trouble if they start asking about Health Care cuts.


A right wing vote split must be manna from heaven for the Liberals. Are they poised to form government?

Errr...


I mean, running against a pair of far right wingers like Danielle Smith and Ted Morton - that's a political double rainbow if I ever saw one. It seems impossible to mess up a gift like that.

Ummm...


So, yeah, with everything coming up roses, why did their leader quit?

Basically, the same reason Ed did. People got spooked by lackluster poll results, and the leader couldn't control an unruly caucus.


And the Alberta Party, what's their deal?

The Alberta Party came into existence last year when progressives, worried that a right-wing vote split might cause them to stumble into power for the first time in 90 years, decided to found another party.

Alberta Party turn ons include "listening" and "Twitter", and their turn offs include "politics as usual" and "explaining what politics as usual actually means".

They are made up of a loose coalition of Albertans disillusioned with the province's major parties and disgruntled Liberals who feel "Do you support Alberta?" is an easier door knocking pitch than "So how about that NEP, eh?".

They're still in the embryonic stage but in Alberta we believe political life begins at conception or, at the very least, your first floor crossing. And they got their first last week - Dave Taylor, a former Liberal MLA, who had grown disenchanted with the Alberta Liberals' policy of not picking Dave Taylor as their leader.

They are very much a wild card at this point.


And what about the NDP? Where do they figure into the current political landscape?

Good question.


And the Greens?

They were desanctioned after the last election, so they're basically about as relevant now as the NDP.


Desanctioned?

That's what happens when you try to stick up for the environment in Alberta.

There is, however, a movement afoot to create a new Green Party, called Vision 2012. Because after all, the one thing missing in Alberta is a 4th opposition party to left of the PCs. At the rate we're going, there will be more parties than voters by the next election.


So what happens now?

Ted Morton will run for the PC leadership. Morton, who brought in Alberta's first deficit budget in a generation, is expected to position himself as the only candidate fiscally conservative enough to stop the Wildrose Alliance. Assuming he avoids the fate of every other front runner in every leadership contest fought in Canada and around the world over the past decade, he will win.


And when is the next election again? I assume that Alberta, being Canada's bastion of democratic reform, has fixed election dates, right?

Ha ha ha. Good one.

Expect an election roughly 60 days after the first poll of 2012 which shows the PCs more than 12 points up on the Wildrosers.


And who will win?

The smart money is on the PC dynasty surviving into its 40s, but for the first time since 1993 we may actually have to wait until the election before calling it. Hell, if we're lucky, the campaign might actually be worth watching.



MEET THE KEY PLAYERS



Ed Stelmach enjoys a lighter moment at his farewell news conference



Danielle Smith not only walks on water, she runs on it!



Ted Morton is likely to be Alberta's next Premier. He's a University professor who thinks he's a cowboy.



David Swann is the most genuine and honest human being on the face of the earth. So, of course, he was doomed from the start.



This is NDP leader Brian Mason. You will never see or hear about him again as long as you live, so don't feel bad if you forget his name. Hell, it even happens to the Premier sometimes.


Reports are Dave Taylor will simply create "The Dave Taylor Party" should he not win the Alberta Party leadership.

And thus begins Ted Morton's leadership campaign

Suffice to say Ed's gambit of naming Morton Minister of Finance last year didn't work out so well, eh?

Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton resigns from PC cabinet
Alberta Finance Minister Ted Morton has resigned from cabinet, two days after first planning to do so and after reluctantly agreeing to support a large deficit budget.

A source tells The Globe and Mail Mr. Morton resigned on Thursday, but remains in the PC caucus.

Tuesday, Stelmach sounded the starting gun on the PC leadership race. With today's announcement, Morton is the first out of the blocks.

Morton's resignation should come as no surprise. He plans to run in the leadership race as a fiscal hawk, and after he wins that, he'll run in the next election as a fiscal hawk. Bringing in another deficit budget won't do him any good.

Neither will running a large government portfolio - not when there are campaign teams to be assembled, membership forms to be sold, and theme songs to be written.

Alberta Budget: Drawing the 2012 Battle Lines

In 2009, Alberta underwent a seismic political shift. Because of that, Budget 2010 has been more highly anticipated and speculated about than last week's Lost premiere. And, at first glance, it's just as confusing, with massive spending increases in some departments and deep cuts in others. After a series of cautious budgets, where the PCs basically threw money at anyone and everyone who asked for it, they've been forced into establishing priorities. And, as we all know, it is not easy to make priorities.

The number 1 priority is, without a doubt, Health Care, which sees its already massive operating budget increase by 17%. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the PC narrative for the next election campaign:

"We have to deal with Aunt Martha who needs her hip, we need to deal with thousands of students who want to learn in modern schools," Snelgrove said. "It's all right to suggest that we can cut $5 billion. I would be a lot more comfortable if they would show Albertans where they would like to cut the $5 billion from and see if Albertans support longer waiting lists, no roads and 60 people in a classroom."

That's not to say the PCs will spend like Alberta PCs have spent in recent years. But they've picked Health Care as their wedge issue with the Wildrose Alliance and, from a strategic perspective, that's not be a bad wedge - it's also an issue that could scare Liberal and NDP voters into voting Stelmach to stop Smith.

But as Colby Cosh points out, the PCs are basically toast if they can't post a surplus by 2012. The good news for them is that it's pretty easy to announce a surplus in Alberta - you just need to tinker with your projected price of oil and natural gas. Still, they needed to make room for the Health Care spending bonanza while gaining street cred with disillusioned right wing voters who have shifted to the Alliance.

So we get huge cuts to culture, the environment, and a dozen other departments, plus the elimination of 795 government jobs. Somewhat troublesome is the 6% cut to advanced education and technology which, to me, shows that an incredible short sighted government has grown even more incredibly short sighted now that its fighting for their political life.

So the PCs have picked Health Care as their issue. What does this mean for the Liberals and NDP, who may have just had their number 1 issue taken away from them?

Well, I think this budget creates a new opening for them. The second Red Ted delivered his budget speech, Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier was already complaining that Stelmach had reneged on promised funds for the city, which may lead to the cancellation of infrastructure projects. There's a certain deja vu to this. Stelmach's first budget (in 2007) was widely seen as being anti-Calgary, and Bronconnier pounced on it, hammering Stelmach into the dust day after day. A desperate Eddie backed down then, and Bronco rode his Danny Williams shtick to re-election that fall.

And, wouldn't you know it? This just so happens to be municipal election year in Alberta again.

Given that, it's almost a given that Bronconnier will try to turn a city and its media, already sour on Stelmach, even more against the Premier. Toss in a 19% cut to housing and urban affairs, and I suspect a few other mayors looking for re-election will be up in arms as well.

It's doubtful Danielle Smith's alternative budget will have any more money for the cities. So the opportunity is there for the Liberals to take the torch and rise to the defense of Calgary - after all, their leader is a Calgarian and they remain an urban party. If I were David Swann, I would pick this as my battle and hound the PCs on it day and night. Stand beside Bronconnier, raise hell in the legislature, write op-eds in the Calgary papers, go on Dave Rutherford demanding Calgary get what was promised. The road to government is going to run through Calgary and the Liberals need to paint themselves as the city's true defenders.

Stelmach has picked his issue - the Liberals need to find theirs.

Ted Morton is the (Straw) Man

The feud between Dave Bronconnier and Ed Stelmach descended into self-parody over the weekend with Bronco taking offense to Ted Morton calling Calgary the best city in Canada. Here's the blow by blow:


Morton:

"Calgary by itself is a good but not a great city," [Morton] told delegates.

"What makes Calgary a great city -- the best in Canada as far as I am concerned -- is what surrounds it."



Bronco:

Bronconnier said the speech was more proof that Calgary's issues are an afterthought for provincial leaders.

"I think it's ironic from a rural MLA living in Calgary to tell an audience that Calgary is not a great city -- of course I take offence to that," he said.

"It was absolutely uncalled for -- they're trying to divide and conquer."
Following the speech, Bronconnier confronted Morton and "gave him a piece of my mind."



Morton:

Morton, the MLA for Foothills-Rocky View west of Calgary who lives in Varsity, said the mayor over-reacted to the remarks, going "ballistic" for no good reason.


"Dave is so self-absorbed and thin-skinned that he's capable of misinterpreting things and taking them out of context," he said.


"I think what you're seeing is a deteriorating relationship between Dave Bronconnier and every other official that tries to work with him."