Happy Anniversary!

One year ago today, Stephen Harper turned an "unwanted election" into his first majority government, Jack Layton and the NDP soared to never before seen heights, and Liberals spent the evening curled up in a fetal position sobbing in the corner.

On political anniversaries, it's tempting to give each party a thumbs up or thumbs down, but the past year has been less clear cut, as the major parties try to figure out where they fit in Canada's new political dynamic.


The Conservatives

It feels like a "Harper majority" was hyped longer than the Phantom Menace – and the end result was just as much of a letdown. After years of being told by both the right and left that a Harper majority would mean an unrecognizable country, it turns out a Harper majority looks a lot like a Harper minority. I hardly think when people warned of his “hidden agenda”, abolishing the penny is what they had in mind.

So if the past year has proven anything, it’s that Stephen Harper has always been and always will be an incrementalist. He has made some changes - goodbye gun registry, so long Katimavik...CBC and Statscan, you can stay, but we’ll make your job a bit harder, in the hope the public begins to question your value. These are bigger changes than he made during the minority years, but the man isn’t reshaping Canada as we know it.

While none of those moves prompted a large backlash, there are storm clouds on the horizon. The F-35 fiasco could tarnish his reputation as a strong financial manager. A stagnant economy would speak directly against the ballot question he was elected on. Robocon could blow up in his face. Bev Oda is still in Cabinet, so that alone guarantees us a few hilarious screw ups.

Outlook: Harper survived year one of the majority unscathed, but he survived with Nicole Turmel as leader of the opposition. The next year will be harder than the last.


The NDP

The past 13 months have been the most turbulent in this “new” party’s long history, filled with highs, lows...and voting delays.

Jack Layton’s death was tragic, but life has gone on for the Dippers. Their leadership race may not have generated the excitement they hoped it would, but they came out of it with the only leader who has a realistic shot at ever living at 24 Sussex, so that’s a point in their column.

With the exception of a few easily forgotten floor crossings, their rookie caucus hasn’t been the embarrassment we thought it would be, so that’s another point for the boys in orange.

Outlook: Mulcair is in the midst of his leadership honeymoon, but he’s been treated to the kid gloves by the Conservatives so far. That’s going to change if Harper ever decides Mulcair is a legitimate threat.


The Liberals

On March 31st, Justin Trudeau knocked out Tory Senator Patrick Brazeau. There haven’t been many highlights over the other 365 days since election night.

That’s not to say Liberal rebuilding hasn’t gone on behind the scenes. The party picked a new president with a lot of good ideas. Today, the Liberals became Canada’s most open party by letting supporters register to vote for the leader. Liberals finally get that the party needs fixing, and I’ve been surprised at the number of new faces I’ve seen at events over the past year – people who joined the party after May 2nd, because they wanted to save it.

In front of the scenes, Rae has performed well in the interim leader’s role, but the “will he or won’t he” saga around his leadership has been a distraction.

Outlook: The next year will be all about leadership, as the Liberals pick the man or woman who will either oversee the party’s death or its return to relevance. No pressure, though.


The Bloc

Can’t say I miss them.

Meet A Calgary Grit: Stephen Randall

When Stephen Randall was nominated as the Liberal candidate in Calgary Centre-North in January, the assumption was he'd be fighting a by election this spring. Now, he's going head to head with Tory Michelle Rempel, the NDP's Paul Vargis, and the Green Party's Heather MacIntosh.

I had a chance to interview Randall a few weeks ago. Here's a recap of our chat:


1. You’ve chosen to enter politics at a later stage in life than a lot of candidates. Has this been a long time ambition, or did something happen recently to push you in this direction?

Randall says running is something he's thought about before, but his career took him in other directions. However, his dissatisfaction with the current government pushed him to take the plunge.

He sees his late entry to the political arena as an asset rather than a liability: “I’ll be blunt – I don’t like career politicians. I think it’s important for candidates to bring their national and international experience to the table. I bring something to the table that someone like our Prime Minister who has never had a job outside of politics doesn’t.”


2. What’s your 15 second pitch to voters? What's this election about?

“It’s about sustainable employment - striking the right balance between the environment and growth. Calgarian families are thinking about their children and the future - the future of health care, pensions, and employment opportunities."


3. The Liberals haven’t won a seat in Calgary since 1968. Why do you think that is, and how do you overcome it?

Randall recognizes there's "lingering hostility" between Calgary and the federal Liberals that goes back to the NEP, and was re-ignited with the Sponsorship Scandal - "There are people who think the Liberals are crooks, including my immediate neighbour” says Randall. However, he doesn't feel these historical issues are as top of mind on the doorsteps now as they were in 2006 or 2008.

Despite the challenge, Randall is optimistic: “We have two very good provincial Liberal MLAs who overlap my riding, David Swann and Harry Chase. There’s therefore a solid Liberal base in the riding to build off. In the past, there hasn’t always been cross-over or co-operation between the parties, but this time both MLAs are supporting me. David Swann has been a friend of mine for 10 years and was at my launch last week.”

“Many constituents and Conservative Party members are dissatisfied with the Conservative candidate. They feel there was no competition for the nomination, and prominent Conservatives are supporting my campaign.”


4. You mentioned your international experience earlier. What’s the most memorable experience from your work overseas – what really impacted you?

"I was in Cambodia in 1993 under the UN authority, to help run their election. It was the first time Cambodia had a democratic election. It left a huge emotional impact on me, seeing a people hungry for change. I saw elderly men and women walk 10 or 20 kilometers to polling stations to vote for the first time. It honestly brought a tear to my eye.”


5. A few years ago, the CBC ran a contest asking Canadians to vote for The Greatest Canadian. Everyone from John A. MacDonald to David Suzuki to Don Cherry got votes. Who would you vote for?

"My answer might change if I had more time to think about it, but I’d have to put Lester Pearson high on the list. Just from the combination of the work he did on the Suez Crisis, and the vision and passion he brought to small-l liberalism in the 20th Century."

(60% of) Canada Votes

And we're off. At least I assume we are - I'm away from e-mail today and this was drafted up last night with an 11 am timestamp. I wouldn't put it past Stephen Harper to cancel the election so as to ensure Canada's economic recovery stays on track.

While I'll no doubt be busy this campaign, there's always time for election blogging. I'll be doing a week-in-review every Sunday. I'll try to find something interesting from Alberta to write about every Friday. Like last election, I'll be asking you to rate commercials with "Ad Watch". I'll be running seat projections. There will be debate live blogs full of live snark. I'll try to keep things light and not get too uber-partisan because, as important as elections are, blogging about them should be fun. Let's leave the nastiness for the Tory war room.

If you're just tuning in now, here's what you need to catch up on:

-Election Primer (Read other election primers here, here, here, and here)
-Election Pool (And check out the James Bow election pool too)
-Election Calendar
-Rate pre-election ads here and here
-A look at the Tory platform


So, what should we expect between now and May 2nd?

I know the common consensus is this election won't change anything. After all, Harper is flying high in the polls and none of the dozen scandals plaguing his government have Canadians protesting in the streets.

But despite this, my gut feeling is Michael Ignatieff is going to surprise people this campaign. And I say this as someone who has never been overly optimistic about Liberal chances in recent elections, and was never a big fan of Mr. Ignatieff's during either of his leadership runs.

I'm not saying he'll win, but he does have some things going for him. Those gloomy poll numbers have been built on two years of attack ads - during a campaign, voters will get to see Ignatieff's side of the story. And he's got the makings of a good story. A "family friendly" Liberal platform is going to sound a lot more appealing than corporate tax cuts or new fighter jets. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Tories are besieged by scandal.

But that's just my gut feeling. Anyone who tells you how this election will play out is full of it. Campaigns are unpredictable and campaigns matter.

So stay tuned. It's going to be a fun ride.

Election 2011 Primer

With the government almost certain to fall in the next 48 hours, what should we expect between now and election day?

Last week, I looked at the election calendar - today, a look at the strategies the parties are likely to employ:



The Conservatives

Official Slogan: Here for Canada (unlike that American bastard Michael Ignatieff)

Unofficial Slogan: "Now is not the time for an opportunistic election. October 2008 was the time for an opportunistic election."

Key Policy Plank: In 2008, they weren't big on policy, only releasing a full platform late in the campaign, after some backlash. This time, we know they'll campaign on cancelling the per vote public subsidy for political parties, but their main platform document was Tuesday's budget, which had something for everyone in it.

Election Framing: Harper has made it clear for the past two years he intends to make the election a choice between "a Conservative majority" or "the evil coalition". Beyond that, the expectation is they'll bomb Ignatieff, but remember, they led with the sweater vest ads last election. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see the Tories start with the feel good stuff again to drive the early conversation away from ethics and towards their budget.

Biggest Worry: The scandals stick




The Liberals

Official Slogan: We've seen the "Your Canada or Harper's?" tag in most of the negative ads so far.

Unofficial Slogan: "We've taken the low expectations principle to a whole new level!"

Key Policy Plank: The Liberals released their Family Care plan last fall, and every indication is this will be a centerpiece policy plank. Ignatieff has also promised policies on Child Care, post-secondary education, and pension reform. Much of this will be paid for by reversing the Conservatives' corporate tax cuts.

Election Framing: We know they'll talk about ethics. We've also seen a heavy focus on family on the Liberal website and in the Family Care plan mentioned above. The Liberals want to make this election about choices: "Harper's big business tax cut versus the Liberal family friendly agenda", or "fighter jets versus family care" - that sort of thing. As always, the goal will be to use sharp contrasts like this to squeeze the Bloc and NDP.

The most detailed preview of the Liberal strategy heading into this election can be found in Paul Wells' must read Maclean's article on "the effort to resurrect Michael Ignatieff".

Biggest Worry: The polls don't move




The NDP

Official Slogan: "This is Canadian leadership"

Unofficial Slogan: "Vote for Jack - get Tom"

Key Policy Plank: The NDP have made recent by election campaigns in BC and Ontario all HST, all the time. I'd also expect a lot of talk about Layton's push to cut the GST on home heating fuels - it's a mind numbingly stupid policy that's bad for the environment and bad for low income earners, but it's good politics.

Election Framing: Expect a retread of recent NDP themes - "results for people", "making parliament work", and all things kitchen table. Layton remains the NDP's biggest asset, so expect him to be front and centre in all (english) ads.

Biggest Worry: Jack's health




The Greens

Official Slogan: Still to be determined, though their website features Elizabeth May saying "It's time. Vote Green."

Unofficial Slogan: "We take the high road, unlike those other corrupt and out of touch a-holes."

Key Policy Plank: I dunno. The environment, I guess.

Election Framing: For the Greens, it's "Saanich or bust" this election - their number one goal is to get Elizabeth May elected. Nationally, their focus appears to be on disengaged voters rather than environmentalists. The challenge, of course, is that disengaged voters tend to not vote due to their being disengaged.

Biggest Worry: The decline of the environment as an issue




The Bloc

Official Slogan: Presumably something along the lines of "Here for Quebec"

Unofficial Slogan: "Gimme Gimme Gimme!"

Key Policy Plank: Duceppe has already rolled out his 5 billion dollar demands.

Election Framing: Presumably, the Bloc will run the usual game plan. Emphasize Duceppe and talk about how they'll be Quebec's guard dog in Ottawa - protecting the province against Stephen Harper.

Biggest Worry: Worry? Why would Gilles Duceppe ever worry?

The Tory Platform

In 2008, we didn't see the Tory platform until the dying days of the campaign. This time, we got it before the writ even dropped.

With all three opposition parties ready to vote down the government, we're now almost certain to be in a campaign by the weekend. Which means today's budget becomes the de facto election platform for the Conservatives. And while it's a pretty uninspiring budget, it's a very impressive platform.

While I'm a little disappointed there's no blogging tax credit in this budget, Jim Flaherty appears to have given every single other Canadian some kind of token tax credit - something voters are sure to notice as they complete their taxes this April.

Have a sick relative? Well, there's the family caregiver tax credit, stolen from the Liberals' Family Care plan. Have a kid who plays piano? There's a tax credit for that. Are you a low income Senior? Here's an extra $12 a month.

Expecting to be mercilessly attacked on their corporate tax cuts, they've closed a corporate tax loophole. Knowing they'll be attacked on a dirty environmental record, the ecoEnergy program gets extended to much fanfare (even though it has existed for 14 years).

But surely this will anger the Tory base, n'est-ce-pas? Well, there's a tax credit for volunteer firefighters. And programs to get more doctors in rural areas.

The budget lacks direction. Nothing in it will do a lot for the economy. Most voters won't get more than a few dollars from it. But the budget is full of the kind of promises that sound good in stump speeches and look good in commercials.

Today we saw the Tory platform and, truth be told, it's an impressive document.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead promises to be an interesting one, even if the end result looks more and more certain by the day.

The Liberal opposition day and the supply vote on spending estimates have been shifted from Monday to Friday, allowing Flaherty to table his budget Tuesday. While the budget itself will never pass, it deserves close attention, since it will basically become the de facto Tory platform.

After that, we'll be treated to a series of procedure tactics and votes, as the parties jockey to ensure the government falls on their terms. At this point, I don't think it really matters how they fall - most voters will jumble the budget, ethical lapses, and a slew of confidence votes together. The exact trigger won't make a huge difference.

Neither will who caused it, though we'll certainly be treated to a round of the blame game. The truth is, all four parties share responsibility, and trying to assign blame is a colossal waste of time. Any of the three opposition parties could have avoided this by supporting the government, and the NDP's demands were so meager, all Harper needed to do was toss them a few scraps to save his skin.

How the government falls and who's responsible don't matter in the least. But get ready to hear a lot about it in the week ahead.


UPDATE: Then again, there could be an undemocratic coalition deal with the socialists and/or the separatists in the works...

Mark Your Calendars

Lysiane Gagnon's Monday article was titled "Don't expect a Quebec surprise". Which is an odd prediction to make since surprises are unexpected by definition.

My advice would be: expect surprises. Every election has surprises. Even the mind numbingly boring 2008 election featured a collapse of the world economy in the middle of it.

But, as Donald Rumsfeld would say, there are "known knowns" and "known unknowns". So let's look at what we do know, heading into a possible May 2nd or May 9th election. Here's your election 2011 calendar:


Week of March 21st: With a slew of confidences votes, the government should fall this week. Unless Jack decides to get results for people.

April 1st - April Fool's: It will mean a chuckle or two and, sadly, the inevitable talking point that "Leader X's policy is like a bad April Fool's joke". Seriously, I may just vote for whatever party resists the urge to use that line.

April 13th - NHL playoffs begins: This likely won't be a big distraction in battleground Ontario, but it's impossible to make it through the playoffs without some form of political controversy.

Third Week of April - Holidays: Holidays are weird creatures during elections. The pace of the campaign slows to a crawl but, at the same time, they're a time when families get together and talk politics...providing the perfect breeding ground for shifts in public opinion. Passover and Easter fall during the third week of April, around the time when vote intentions begin to solidify. If anyone makes a move, that's likely the week it will happen.

April 29th - Royal Wedding: We know Stephen Harper is attending. The common consensus is that this will give him a chance to shine on the world stage but this strikes me as something that's a common consensus only because everyone keeps saying it is (like the "Olympic bounce" or "G20 bounce"). On the bright side, we know it's not a Catholic wedding, so Harper won't have to worry about any embarrassing communion wafer mishaps.

April 30th - Happy Birthday Mr. Prime Minister: Stephen Harper celebrates his 52nd birthday.

April 30th - Tax Filing Deadline: Making this an excellent campaign to propose income tax cuts during.

May 8th - Mother's Day: Having the entire country thinking about their mothers the day before E-Day could be good news for the Liberals and their caring, family-focused agenda.

TBD - Debates: You can fit 2 to 4 debates in somewhere above...though the CBC is going to have a tough time scheduling them, given their wall-to-wall hockey coverage. Last election, there was only one set of debates - if that's the case again, they would likely fall towards the end of April. Debates haven't been game changers in recent years, but they certainly hold the potential to be.

Not If, But When

There was high drama in the House of Commons today, as Peter Milliken dug into the annals parliamentary tradition to rule on a pair of contempt motions put forward by Liberal MPs against the Conservative government. For those curious about what Speaker Lamoureux had to say in 1966 and how it's relevant today, the transcripts are available here. It's actually worth a read, if only because it may prove to be one of Peter Miliken's final rulings as speaker.

That's because the election train is picking up more and more speed by the day. The only thing that can stop it now would be the NDP - we don't know what Layton will decide, but from their tone in the house today, they certainly don't sound like a party looking for a way out.

So unless the NDP backs down or Harper prorogues (ha ha), the question becomes how the 40th parliament will meet its demise. Among the possibilities:

A. Defeat on the budget, slated to be tabled March 22nd, and voted on later that week in a series of confidence motions.

B. Defeat on an opposition motion: Although today's rulings did not trigger an immediate confidence motion, the committee exploring these issues is scheduled to report back to the House of Commons on March 21st and March 25th. Either could lead to a confidence vote, but if the Tories are set on tabling a budget, it's entirely in their power to delay the vote until after Budget Day.

The end result of these two possibilities is essentially the same: Canadians see the budget, and we all go to the polls on May 2nd or May 9th.

There is, however, a third option:

C. Harper goes to the GG and pulls the plug, like he did in 2008.

Now, there are some good reasons for Harper to wait. He can blame the opposition for causing an election nobody wants. He can show Just Visiting ads on every hockey game and cricket match for the next two weeks, without worrying about election spending limits. And he gets to table what most assume will be a voter-friendly budget.

That said, as Globe blogger Rob Silver argues, there are good reasons to pay a visit to Rideau Hall before then:

If I were Stephen Harper, given the pile of scandals that have the potential to become a dominant election issue (and there is no reason at this time to think that any of the scandals Harper is facing is harming him electorally), I think it would be foolhardy to give the opposition two extra weeks to lay tracks.

And heck, he can just turn the budget into his campaign platform anyways. Plus, it lets Harper get that messy election business over with before the Royal Wedding.

Add it all up and I tend to think we're in for two weeks of phony war before the campaign kicks off.

That said, if I were David Johnson, I wouldn't be making any March break travel plans. Just in case.