Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?

Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there's no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it's impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will look like.

The first problem with any seat projection is that all polls split Alberta into three regions for reporting purposes - Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta. While that's the most logical cut, just as downtown Calgary and suburban Calgary are two very different entities, lumping Red Deer and Peace River into the "rural Alberta" umbrella masks regional trends.

Moreover, the regional sample sizes in these polls are small, carrying large margins of error. It's not at all surprising to see the PCs up by 4 in Calgary Monday morning, but trailing by 14 come dinner time. Yes, it's possible a Wildrose chinook rolled across the city, but it's more likely we're dealing with the effects of small sample sizes and varying methodologies.

But even if we're lucky enough to get completely accurate polls, extrapolating out seat totals is a fool's errand. Seat projections in the last few federal elections have generally worked well, because we've had a good baseline to work with. If the Liberal vote is down 5 points in Ontario from 2008 to 2011, it's not hard to do the math for each riding. However, the Wildrose Alliance was little more than a protest party last time Albertans went to the polls, so it's counter productive to calculate their 2012 support using their 2008 vote. When a party rises from nothingness, it's extremely difficult to predict vote patterns - there's a reason seat projections showed the NDP winning anywhere from 20 to 70 seats in Quebec last spring, and a reason 308.com projects a Wildrose seat range of between 27 and 74 seats.

Toss in wild 4-way splits in Edmonton, incumbency effects, riding redistricting, and a map skewed to favour rural Alberta, and we're dealing with Alberta's most unpredictable election in a long time.

So the bottom line is we don't know what the next legislature will look like, but if the vote stays close, Alberta's first ever minority government is a distinct posibility. So what happens then?

The first thing to consider is the likelihood of defections. A floor crossing epidemic has spread across Alberta in recent years, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a handful of Progressive Conservatives take a step to the right after the election. Few PC MLAs supported Redford when she ran for leader, and she hasn't exactly endeared herself to them over the past month. Many in her caucus share the same Wildrose positions Redford spent the campaign ridiculing, and the prospect of an NDP-supported Redford budget might be too much for them to bear.

Hell, if Smith is only a handful of seats shy of a majority, expect an exodus. PC MLAs have never sat on the opposition benches, and many chose their party colours merely because they saw the PCs as the only avenue to power. It's not like Danielle Smith has her hands full of "Cabinet material" candidates to choose from, so she wouldn't hesitate for a second to offer Cabinet posts to entice one or two Tories across the floor.

But let's assume for a moment that Redford holds the PC ship together - maybe the PCs even find themselves ahead of the Wildrosers. The focus then shifts to the Liberals and NDP, who will likely win 4 to 10 seats between them. The Saskatchewan Liberals found themselves in a similar situation in 1996, and their decision to take Cabinet posts in an NDP government eventually led to the demise of that party. So it was somewhat curious when Liberal leader Raj Sherman began the negotiation process during an online debate yesterday, by asking Smith and Redford if they'd name him Minister of Health.

While I don't think the good doctor will get his wish, nearly everyone I've talked to assumes the PCs would cut some kind of deal with what's left of the left - even if they win fewer seats than the Wildrosers. But I'm not convinced.

The Liberals and NDP have spent decades waiting for the PC empire to crumble and if Smith offers them a deal - say some democratic reform measures and a hold on the more objectionable parts of Wildrose platform - I wouldn't be shocked to see an unholly alliance. After all, seeing the Wildrose Party in power would surely plunge the PCs into infighting and a leadership race.

For the Wildrose Party, the benefits of a deal with the left are obvious - the aforementioned PC chaos, and a chance to govern "non-scarily" thanks to the calming influence of the Liberals and NDP (think Stephen Harper from 2006 to 2011). Keep in mind, Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan has gone on record as stating he saw nothing wrong with Harper's threat to cut a deal with the separatists and socialists in 2004, after winning fewer seats than Paul Martin. Smith sounded like she was laying the groundwork for this type of arrangement during the leaders debate, when she went out of her way to compliment Raj Sherman and talked about how she's been able to work with the NDP in the legislature.

As strange as it may sound, life may soon be imitating the scenes from a satirical 2010 press gallery video, featuring Brian Mason barking orders ("left, left, left") at Danielle Smith and a Wildrose caucus decked out in orange NDP shirts. Hell, the video even features a cameo from then-independent MLA Raj Sherman.

There goes another $1,000 "good behaviour" bond

Wildrose candidate Ron Leech sees "being white" as his biggest advantage in this election. Personally, I think his biggest advantage is having a leader who doesn't seem to care that he sees "being white" as his biggest advantage in this election. Because any other leader would have punted him from the ticket within minutes of saying this.

Wildrose party leader Danielle Smith, who had to defend one of her candidates on Monday for posting anti-gay views online, came to Leech's defence Tuesday, saying his comments are not cause for concern.

"I think that every candidate puts forward their best argument for why they should be the person who can best represent the community," Smith said at a campaign event.

Alberta Votes Day 23: Born this Way

Above: Surely Allan Hunsperger sees the slippery slope this picture represents

I think it's safe to assume Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsperger's $1,000 "good conduct bond" is as good as gone:

Wildrose candidate Allan Hunsperger wrote about his views on homosexuality on his blog in 2011. Hunsperger, a minister with The House church in Tofield, suggested if gays and lesbians continue to choose their sexual orientation they will suffer in the afterlife: “You will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell.”

Hunsperger suggested that for their own sake, gays and lesbians must be made aware of the imperative to change, and not simply accept who they are, as singer Lady Gaga suggests they do. “Accepting people the way they are is cruel and not loving!”

It's not uncommon for crackpots to make it past candidate vetting in all parties. In recent elections, we've seen "progressive" candidates dropped for everything from white supremacist writings to unwelcome bouts of nudity.

I think most voters accept this and, in a leader-driven political climate, these incidents rarely shift votes outside of the riding in question. The difference this time is that Danielle Smith has stood by her man, refusing to drop him as a candidate - or even to condemn what he said. The Hunsperger saga therefore isn't about the quality of the Wildrose team, but about the values of the Wildrose leader.

It's all very nice for Danielle Smith to tweet about how she will "represent all Albertans regardless of their race, religion, gender, politics or sexual orientation" and that "rights are rights are rights". But surely she can see how "representing all Albertans" doesn't include promoting the notion that certain Albertans will "burn in the fires of hell" due to a lifestyle "choice".

Because that's what Smith is doing. In our system, if you want to run for office with a party logo next to your name, that party must approve you as a candidate. Leaders not only give this approval, they promote local candidates by linking to their websites, speaking on their behalf, and offering financial support. They do this because they believe these candidates share their party's values. No one expects the leader to agree with every candidate on every issue, but at the very least Smith's support for Hunsperger shows she doesn't view his position as reprehensible - which it is.

Smith will do doubt continue to smile and say she's pro-choice and pro-same sex marriage, and that she won't legislate on social issues. I believe her. But politics is also about values, and Smith's defense of Hunsperger tells us more about her values than anything she has said this campaign.

Alberta Votes Day 20: Notes From Week 3

On the Debate

Reaction from yours truly, Hatrock, Santos, Tougas, and Daveberta.


On Going Neg

1. A former Liberal MLA offers the PCs free advice on how to go neg, envisioning grainy and unflattering pictures of Smith with an ominous voice over warning "Danielle Smith wants to bring American-style health care to Alberta".

2. The master of going neg digs up some old Danielle Smith quotes on abortion and private Health Care.

3. The PC campaign complains about the floor crossers they lost over two years ago and Lyle Oberg.


On the Challenges of Going Neg

Danielle Smith reminds everyone she's pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. Which should remind us why the PCs have had a difficult time painting her as a right wing bogeyman.


On Advertising

Daveberta digs up one of the worst election ads I have ever seen:


And also this kind of cool one:

However, an ad exec once told me that if someone is branding themselves as "not your father's car", it's because they have reams of focus group data saying people see them as "your father's car".


Sing a Song for Glen

The Alberta Party has released a campaign song:



It's no "Ted Morton is the Man", but it's infinitely less annoying than "Sing a Song for Jim".

Speaking of "The Man", he has once again broken new ground, becoming the first candidate to ever post a topless photo of himself on his website bio:

Alberta Votes Day 19: The Morning After

The hype machines were in overdrive for yesterday's Alberta Leaders Debate, but the outcome was similar to most debates: steady but unspectacular performances from all the candidates, with the end result nothing more than re-enforcing existing attitudes. The post-debate Ipsos poll bears that out; when asked who won, 37% opted for Smith, 28% for Redford, 13% for Sherman, and 10% for Mason - similar to the party support levels in most recent polls.

Given she's leading the polls 10 days before the vote, a messy draw was likely good enough for Danielle Smith. If you'd never heard of Danielle Smith before, you'd likely be impressed by her performance - but the woman has been more over hyped than Tim Tebow, and I find her less likable over 90 minutes than in photo ops and sound bytes. There was nothing Laytonesque in her performance, but she gets marks for avoiding the "inside baseball" stuff more than Redford, and framing issues in a way casual voters can understand and relate to.

Alison Redford found herself under attack all night long, even from one of the moderators, Vassy Kepelos, who asked Redford a triple-barrelled question that amounted to "how could anyone in their right mind trust you?". But Redford held her own against each attack, looking very much like a Premier. In most elections, that would be more than enough for the PC leader, but Redford needed to make Danielle Smith look scary, and there was nothing scary about the mostly cheerful Smith who talked about her ability to work with the NDP, and spun Danny Dollars as a way to help the poorest Albertans. Redford failed to land a good soundbyte on conscience rights, and wasted far too much time attacking Smith over trivial insider issues.

Considering Michael Ignatieff made absolutely no headway going after Harper on Carson, Contempt, and Corruption during last May's debate, I don't know what Redford hoped to accomplish by continuing to press Smith over two year old floor crossings. The details are murky enough that it's not a clear cut ethical breach, and even if it were, I can't imagine it would shift a single vote outside of the two ridings in question. With all the things Danielle Smith has written or said in her lifetime, and all the extremist positions her party holds, Redford's inability to land a punch was disappointing.

Raj Sherman was the least polished of the four leaders, and the delivery of his over rehearsed sound bytes was often clunky. Despite the poor style marks, he scored well on content, striking a nice balance between pointing out the conservative nature of the PCs and selling his own party's platform. As expected, he pivoted to Health Care whenever possible, but Sherman held his own on other issues. He did enough to stop the bleeding to the PCs, but I'm skeptical we was compelling enough to win back Redford Liberals.

Brian Mason was the most seasoned debater on stage and looked the most at ease. He played all the NDP greatest hits, promising "results for people" and telling anecdotes of his conversations with Albertans. The only thing missing was a story about him taking Andrea Horwath's son to the emergency room. I suspect a lot of Albertans liked the Brian Mason they saw last night, but I can't imagine he moved many votes. He was short on specifics, and his overall "pro-tax, anti-oilsands" message won't move him far beyond the NDP base.


So where do we go from here?

The debate was a missed opportunity for Redford, leaving her no option but to blanket the Alberta airwaves with anti-Wildrose attack ads. The PC dynasty may be on the way out, but it's going to go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Alberta Votes Day 18: Debate Night in Edmonton

More often than not, the Alberta leader's debate is a mere formality, intended to create a vaneer of democracy in a province where elections tend to be meaningless. It's barely worth watching, because even if someone delivers the mythic "knock out punch", it doesn't affect the election outcome. Hell, had Ed Stelmach literally gone over to Kevin Taft and punched him in the face last debate, it wouldn't have changed much.

From 1997 to 2004, Ralph Klein's debate prep was never more intensive than taking a swig of whiskey before going on stage. In 2008, one of the debate questions was literally "how come none of you are charismatic?", to which Brian Mason gave a memorable - albeit unemotional - "my wife thinks I'm charismatic" rebuttal.

This time, it's different.

Alberta is in the midst of its first competitive election in 19 years, and tonight's debate could very well tip the scales. Three of the four leaders are rookies, and newspaper reporters routinely get Brian Mason's name wrong in stories, so it's not like he's a household name anywhere outside of the Mason household. For all intents and purposes, this will be the first and only chance for the leaders to make an impression.

Global will be airing the debate on the tube and online from 6:30 to 8 mountain time. If you're looking for a good time, the National Post offers a drinking game - for a simpler version, simply take a shot of Big Rock every time you hear the words "conscience rights", "41 years", or "money for nothing".

I'll be live blogging as long as I stay sober, and the following are what I'll be looking for from the party leaders:



She may never have run for an office higher than School Board Trustee, but Danielle Smith enters this debate as the favourite. She's photogenic, well spoken, and knows a thing or two about how to act in front of a TV camera.

Of course, most voters have likely gotten to know Smith through carefully orchestrated photo ops and sound bytes. Her challenge is therefore to remain likable for the full hour and a half. If she can accomplish that, the substance of the debate will be largely meaningless. So long as Smith doesn't look like the extremist Redford paints her out to be, the election is hers for the taking.



Alison Redford's gutsy debate performance 3 days before the PC leadership vote, in the wake of her mother's passing, likely won her that contest. It will take an equally impressive performance tonight for her to save the 41 year old PC dynasty (41 years - take a drink!).

Unlike Smith, who can win on style marks, Redford will need good content scores to take this one. And therein lies the problem. She must paint the Wildrose Party as extremists...for holding the same views as many in her caucus. She must woe Liberal and NDP voters worried about Smith, all the while reassuring conservatives she bleeds blue. She must present herself as an agent of change, yet make the case that Alberta can't afford the type of change the Wildrose Party is offering.

She will be forced to defend the PC record, but must brush off attacks over PC scandal. She will make the case for increased spending on health care and education, but will warn that Danielle Smith's numbers don't add up.

Redford is juggling a dozen balls in the air. If she pulls it off, she's going to impress a lot of people, but it's far more likely they'll all come crashing down on live TV.



Raj Sherman is likely the least polished of the four leaders, but he does project a certain amount of genuineness - especially when talking about Health Care. Expect Sherman to stay in his wheelhouse tonight, using Health Care to define himself (as a former ER doctor) and attack the PCs (over corruption and mismanagement). If you're placing bets, there's a 1 in 15 chance he'll show up to the debate wearing scrubs.

With Redford looking to her right, Sherman is unlikely to face the same "tax and spend" and "NEP" attacks as his predecessors. The challenge for this former Tory MLA lies in recapturing the Liberal base, as most polls have Liberal support cut in half from their 1997-2008 levels. With this in mind, he should not be afraid to rally progressives behind the Liberals' "tax the rich to pay for health and education" platform.

The risk he faces is that many Liberals may reluctantly back the evil empire, to stop the Wildrosers. For all intents and purposes, any attack on Smith tonight is a de facto attack on himself.



Brian Mason faces the least pressure of any leader, since the rise of the Wildrose does little to alter his message. He doesn't have the same balancing act as the other leaders, and can speak directly to his base of Edmontonians who get off on recycling.

Mason will therefore read from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook, arguing the other three parties are all the same. The over/under on the number of times he refers to Raj Sherman as "a former conservative" has been set at 4.5 for the night.

Alberta Votes Day 14: Party of One

Notes from week 2 of the Alberta election, as Alison Redford tries to resurrect her campaign over Easter Weekend.


1. Daveberta's post on the Wildrose Party's more controversial candidates has generated over 100 responses and heavy online debate - not surprising, given the limited coverage by the mainstream media on this topic so far. Which is kind of surprising when you consider how much the national media feasts off crazy/controversial local candidate stories during federal elections.

In fairness to the Wildrose Party, I scanned their candidate list, and one or two dozen appear to have some kind of municipal government experience. The list also includes Joe Anglin who posted the Green Party's best showing in the last provincial election, two media personalities, and an oil and gas workman awesomely named Ethane Jarvis.

Of course, many of the candidates' key selling points seem to be their involvement in "University debate clubs" or "campus newspapers". To the best of my knowledge, none of them are members of the McGill NDP club.


2. Dave also unearths @ElectDanielle's backup Twitter account - @PremierDanielle. It looks like @OppositionLeaderRedford is still available, but likely not for long.


3. With Smith flying high in the polls, she has decided to play it safe by talking about...uhh...abortion and private health care.


4. On CalgaryGrit this week: Smith promises Ralphbucks and soars in the polls, while Redford loses control of the agenda and tries to win it back...by inventing triage.


5. On the blogs: Robert Vollman looks at the ballot question, David Climenhaga slams the Wildrosers on abortion and health care, while the Englightened Savage begins his riding profiles in Airdrie and Banff-Cochrane.

SantosSez speculates about progressives jumping to the PCs to stop Smith, and judging from what I've seen from my largely left-wing friends on Facebook over the past week, progressive Albertans are definitely worried about what a Wildrose government would look like.

The thing is, the Liberals and NDP are polling at a cumulative 25%, which is already 10-15 points below their total in every Alberta election since 1993, when the two parties won a majority of the popular vote. In short, it looks to me like Redford has already peeled off progressive votes from the left, and I'm skeptical how much more she can attract.

Alberta Votes Day 9: Ralphbucks Returns

On Sunday, the Wildrose Party released an April Fools press release, proposing to merge Alberta and Saskatchewan. On Monday, they took the silliness up a level:

Wildrose promises cash rebates to Albertans if oil money creates budget surplus

CREMONA, Alta. - Alberta's Wildrose party is promising free oil money for all if it win's the April 23 provincial election.

Leader Danielle Smith announced Monday a Wildrose government would pay directly to citizens 20 per cent of all future budget surpluses generated by oil and natural gas revenues.

"Instead of squandering surplus funds on pet projects and more government waste, the Alberta Energy Dividend will ensure Albertans benefit directly from the wealth our energy sector generates," Smith said in a news release.

"Wildrose believes that Albertans can spend their own money better than government. That is precisely why we've got a plan to put more money back in their pockets instead of government coffers."

The Alberta government is predicting oil will average out at US$108 a barrel by 2015. Smith said if that happens, her team would cut a $300 cheque to every man, woman, and child.

So if you think the Progressive Conservatives have grown tired after 40 years in power and have little long term economic vision, the Wildrose alternative is to recycle one of the most visionless policies ever adopted in Alberta - Ralph Bucks.

It's not even worth wasting virtual ink over the merits of this policy, because there are none. Cash giveaways of this nature are the surest way for a leader to signal he or she has no intention of even pretending they have a plan to govern. I'd call it lazy policy making, but "policy making" is too charitable a term for it.

So let's look at the politics.

As the PC MLAs on the "money for nothing committee" showed, human beings have a difficult time saying no to free money. I know voters rarely study election platforms in detail, but Danielle Smith's platform continues to drift further and further into fantasyland. To recap:

• A billion for Danielle Dollars.
• A $2000 child tax credit, which will cost the province $130 to $175 million a year depending who you ask.
• A $500 children's activity tax credit and the elimination of school fees.
• Growing the Heritage Fund to 200 billion over the next 20 years.
• Prohibit deficits - which shouldn't be a problem given they project a $2 billion surplus in 2013, increasing to $8 billion in 2017

Now, there are three ways the Wildrose Party could pay for this laundry list of electoral treats (which will continue grow by the time the campaign is done):

1. Cuts: The thing is, the cuts Smith is promising are mostly symbolic gestures - cut Cabinet Minister salaries and buy cheaper paper clips. She is promising to scrap $2 billion worth of carbon capture and sequestration projects - the rub is, some of that funding has already been spent, and the rest is spread out over 15 years. On a yearly basis, that barely covers her child tax credit.

2. Taxes and royalties: The Alberta Liberals have promised an ambitious platform including free tuition, and are paying for it through tax increases on the richest Albertans and businesses. The Wildrosers? They've signed a no-tax pledge. If anything, they'd rather see less royalty revenue.

3. Magic: At this point, this is he most plausible explanation. That or winning the lottery a few times each year.

Whether or not the other leaders make this point in a compelling enough manner remains to be seen. As Jack Layton showed last spring, platform costing usually takes a back seat when a charismatic leader is able to capture the imagination of the electorate.

But while Smith attacks Redford on a daily basis over the "money for nothing" committee, all she's offered voters is a "money for nothing" platform.

Alberta Votes Day 8: Losing control of the agenda

One week into the election, and Alberta's 40 year PC dynasty is on the ropes. It's premature to write the obituaries, but it's never too early to write about what went wrong - and what went wrong in week one was a complete inability of Alison Redford to control the agenda.

One day, the Tories are under attack for burrying a health care report card. The next, they're fending off the first Twitter controversy of the campaign. And nearly every day has featured unwanted attention on the "money for nothing" committee.

Redford tried to diffuse the issue Friday by forcing MLAs to return all the pay they received, but this gesture came nearly a full month after the story broke...and several weeks after Redford accused opposition MLAs who returned the pay of "grandstanding".

It's fairly obvious Redford could have killed this story by coming directly to this end point when the story broke. Hell, given it took Wildrose MLAs a week to return the cash, she might have even been able to turn the tables, and pointed to her decisiveness as a sign there was a new sheriff in town, ready to do politics differently. Instead, the issue festered in the weeks leading up to the writ drop, and continues to distract.

If you think Redford's latest move will put the scandal to bed, don't count on it - friendly fire comments, Wildrose commercials, and the Leader's Debate will see to that. As a friend of mine said over the weekend, all Danielle Smith has to say in the debate is "Alison, it shouldn't take bad polling numbers to make you do the right thing".

It's been one bad news story after another for the PCs on the campaign trail. As Alberta's hockey teams have learned, it's hard to score goals when you're always playing in your own end.

Alberta Votes Day 4: Danielle Smith comes out as the "anti-change" candidate

If you've been reading my Alberta political posts over the past few years, you've probably deduced that I'm a fan of Danielle Smith. Not in the sense that I'd vote for her (especially with socially regressive positions like this), but Smith is an impressive politician - smart, articulate, charismatic, thoughtful.

From that perspective, this is probably the least impressive Smith has been in the past two years:

Premier Alison Redford doesn’t like Alberta, says Wildrose leader Danielle Smith

Premier Alison Redford must not like Alberta because she says she wants to change it, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith told reporters near the Alberta Legislature Wednesday.

In a photo opportunity in front of a provincial building being renovated for MLA offices, Smith attacked the Conservative government’s priorities and wasteful spending, but she saved most of her venom for her main rival in the provincial election campaign.

With numerous polls showing the two parties neck and neck, Smith lashed out at Redford for saying in a speech to the Calgary Chamber that the province needed change.

“I think Ms. Redford doesn’t like Alberta all that much,” said Smith. “She doesn’t like who were are. She doesn’t like our character. She wants to change it. I think that’s going to be the ballot question. I think that’s the question what people are going to have to ask in the next election. Do we need to be changed. Do we need Ms. Redford to change us? Do we have anything to be embarrassed about. I think the answer is a resounding ‘no.’”

It shouldn't be too hard to figure out where this attack came from. The Wildrose campaign manager is none other than Tom Flanagan, and Paul Martin loved using the "Stephen Harper hates Canada" line against Stephen Harper back when Dr. Tom was managing the federal Tory campaigns.

I always cringed when Martin uttered that line - it's juvenile, baseless, and it demeans everyone who is running for public office. Just because Stephen Harper wants to change Canada, it doesn't mean he hates the country. Just because Alison Redford, or Raj Sherman, or Danielle Smith want to change Alberta, it doesn't mean they hate Alberta. These people are all running because they want to make a difference. Does anyone seriously think they would give their lives to serving a province and people they hate?

But what really baffles me about this attack is that it's incredibly stupid politics. Smith wants to replace a 40 year government and she's trying to define herself as the "anti-change" candidate? That completely blows my mind. After all, if you go to Danielle Smith's website, the very first words that greet your eyes are "It's Time for Change".



In one breath she's arguing the province needs to change governments and in the next she's arguing that change is "un-Albertan". I have a hard time believing voters will process the nuanced position that "change in the form of government cuts is good" but "change in the form of increased health care spending is bad".

With the Wildrose Party soaring, the game plan should be simple: photo ops of Danielle Smith with cute animals, and talk about the good things she'd do as Premier.

If she continues with these petty childish attacks, voters are going to take her message that change is bad to heart.

Alberta Votes Day 3: Time to bring back Ed?

In retrospect, maybe it wasn't such a good idea for Alison Redford to call the election after a month of wall-to-wall scandal and controversy.

Two more polls have been released today - let's start with the bad news for Alison Redford.

Leger Marketing confirms the statistical tie we saw in two polls Monday: PC 37%, WRP 34%, ALP 12%, NDP 11%. Keep in mind, Leger had the Tories leading by 37 points in January.

From the bad news, we move to the worse news. The Sun's Forum poll shows the Wildrose Party leading by 10 points. The tendency when many polls comes out at once is to gravitate to the most salacious results - when the opposite is likely more appropriate. So, as shocking as these numbers are, we're probably best to look at all four polls that have come out and conclude it's a dead heat between the PCs and the Wildrosers, with the Liberals and NDP far, far behind.

Which is bad news for Alison Redford - especially if you share my opinion that Danielle Smith is the superior politician, and is likely to "outplay" Redford during the campaign. That's already apparent from Monday's ThinkHQ poll which shows Smith's momentum score at +11 and Redford's at -20.

The good news for the PCs - if there is any - is that there's still plenty of time to counter punch. This is going to put a lot of scrutiny on Smith's team and platform. The analogy I like to use is of Mario Dumont, back when Mario Dumont was still cool. The ADQ was nothing more than a one-man show, and once it looked like he might actually win in 2007, Jean Charest was able to use the prospect of an ADQ government to recover. So warning to fringe Wildrose candidates - start prepping for media calls!

The question, of course, is whether Alison Redford is as deft a politician as Jean Charest. On that question, I have my doubts.



In other polling news, the Alberta Liberals have released their internal numbers. It's a long survey for a robo-poll so we need to look at the results with caution, but the vote numbers largely match what we've seen in the media, so we can likely take the numbers at face value.

Of course, the intent of the release is not to re-enforce bad horse race numbers, but to highlight the party's platform which tested relatively well. On that score, there's strong agreement with the ALP's Health Care and education policies, and their revenue generation plans to increase taxes on the richest Albertans and largest corporations.

Now, the real test of a policy is not so much whether voters agree with it, but whether it moves votes - after all, the most "popular" policy tested is one giving more power to MLAs, but I'm skeptical that will motivate voters. And the results when it comes to moving votes are rather underwhelming - after hearing the entire platform, 36% of respondents are more likely to vote Liberal and 32% are less likely to.



And if all of that wasn't enough polling data for you, Santos Sez has compiled the fascinating chart above of Alberta election polls over the past four years. Suffice to say, Redford's recent polling numbers are downright Stelmachian. So much for that honeymoon.

Alberta Votes Day 2: Polls and Prostitutes

We were treated to a pair of Alberta election polls last night - both showing the PCs and Wildrose in a statistical tie. Given previous 2012 polls have shown Redford between 5 and 37 points ahead, this comes as a bit of a shock - though it's not necessarily bad news for the PC campaign team, as it helps them frame the election as a two party race, and may prompt the media and voters to take a closer look at Smith's platform and team.

ThinkHQ (March 22-25, n = 1320 online)
PC 36%
WR 33%
NDP 13%
ALP 13%

Ipsos Reid (n = 890 online, March 20-25)
PC 38%
WR 38%
NDP 12%
ALP 11%

I talked about Redford targeting female voters yesterday and these numbers bear that out - the PCs lead by 12 among women, but trail by 8 among men. The Wildrosers hold a 7-8 point lead in Calgary, with the two parties tied in rural Alberta. The PCs still lead in Redmonton but, most surprisingly, the Wildrose Party has jumped to second place. I haven't seen much media commentary on that point, but that's really a shocking development that plunges Edmonton into an unpredictable vortex of 3 and 4-way races.

Speaking of unpredictability, who would have thought day 1 of the campaign would feature an attack against the far right wing Wildrose Party for being soft on prostitution? Yet, that's exactly what happened, when the PCs circulated a Danielle Smith column from 2003, in which she writes about the health, crime, and safety benefits a Calgary red light district would bring with it:

Even worse, one gets the impression that prostitutes are deemed unworthy of the same basic rights to protection the rest of us enjoy.

When a prostitute is raped, beaten or even murdered, her assailant is seldom brought to justice. The book Serial Killers from A-Z contains a section on unsolved multiple murders, a shocking number of which are prostitute slayings. A 2001 study of prostitutes on Vancouver’s East Side, conducted by the Prostitution Alternatives Counselling Education Society, found that police misconduct and violence towards prostitutes is also rampant — allegations include sexual and physical assaults, theft, threats and attempted murder.

Moreover, when a customer refuses to pay for the services he’s received, a prostitute has no recourse to collect on the debt. If she works for a pimp, she has no ability to negotiate wages, benefits, hours of work or working conditions, or even leave the profession. There is no access to treatment for those addicted to drugs. A john has no idea when he picks up a “date” whether she is infected with a venereal disease or HIV.

The moral crusade against prostitution has had devastating unintended consequences. It’s no surprise sex-trade workers are the most vocal advocates for decriminalization. If the status quo is this bad, legalization can’t be worse. Many nations agree.

Redford attacked Smith for taking an "uncaring" and "simplistic" approach to the issue, but when you read the full article, it's clear Smith's position is anything but. She studied the issue, considered the health and safety of the individuals involved, and came to a perfectly reasonable conclusion - albeit a politically toxic one.

This won't be the last time an old article of Smith's is going to surface - especially if her poll numbers hold. As Michael Ignatieff learned last spring, thoughtful writings get distilled down to damaging soundbites during political campaigns.

The difference, I think, is that Smith appears to be a far more talented politician than Ignatieff, so she'll stand a better chance at fending off these attacks.

Alberta Votes

The writ has been dropped, and Albertans will go to the polls on April 23. The past few years have been wildly turbulent, with shocking municipal votes, the rise of the Wildrose, parties desanctioned and founded, leadership races in nearly every party (2 for the Liberals), and floor crosings aplenty. Despite this, the PCs are expected to win a 12th consecutive majority government. It is, after all, still Alberta.

If the election has prompted you to look in on Alberta politics for the first time in a while, the following overview should give you the background you need to keep score at home.


Alison Redford and the PCs

Redford stunned everyone with her come-from-behind win in last Fall's PC leadership race, despite trailing Gary Marr 41% to 19% after the first round of voting. That leadership contest was triggered by Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation, when the Premier was gently pushed aside over concerns about his electability - Stelmach you'll recall, was only able to win 72 of 83 seats in his first election as party leader in 2008.

Redford is seen as being squarely on the left of the PC Party, and was once called a "feminist lawyer" by Rob Anders. her leadership campaign focused on health care and education, targeting female voters. It should therefore come as no surprise that the Alberta Liberals have taken a hit in the polls since Redford's ascension to power.

Redford has remained popular since winning the leadership, but has proven to be one of the least exciting Premier's in the province's history. Not so much in terms of personality (no one could match her predecessor there), but in terms of content. She kind of kept her fixed election date promise, by giving herself a three month election window. She kind of kept her promise to hold an independent judicial inquiry into the health care system, but limited the mandate. Her budget was popular, but painfully cautious. There have been a few missteps and scandlettes, but even they have been boring (Gary Mar's post-leadership fundraising letter mentioned his position as ambassador...zzzzzz....).

She might as well be running on a slogan of "Meh. Why not?".

Election Strategy: The PCs have used a tagline of "Danielle Smith: Not Worth the Risk" in early attack ads, promoting the stability offered by the PCs - after all, what's more stable than a 40 year old government?

This stalking horse also serves to frame the election as a Wildrose-PC showdown, in a bid to scare "Redford Liberals" into voting PC and making disgruntled conservatives think twice about casting a protest vote for the Wildrose. Expect reports aplenty of "anonymous Conservatives" worried about a Wildrose victory - even if they're comfortably ahead in the polls.

Policy: I wouldn't hold my breath expecting anything bold from Redford. No new taxes, a little bit of money for Health Care, a little bit of money for feel good programs, and a little bit of...hey look over there at the Wildrose Party!



Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party

Danielle Smith was the golden girl of Alberta politics for a two year stretch, starting in the summer of 2009. She was the subject of countless "hey, let's see if anything interesting is happening in Alberta" political profiles by the national press, and the local media treated her like she walked on water. Then Alison Redford came along and now the only time the media talks about Smith is when they're chuckling over her bus.

Even if Smith can't lead the Wildrose Party to the promised land, the mere fact that we're talking about this possibility is quite the accomplishment. Dozens of right wing parties have come and gone in Alberta over the years, but none have ever moved beyond fringe status. While some of the Wildrose's success is no doubt due to the shortcomings of the PCs, I suspect at least half their votes are driven by Smith herself.

Strategy: The biggest asset the Wildrose Party has is Danielle Smith. If I were running the campaign, I'd make the election all about her and use a lot of flowery language about "change" and the "potential of Alberta". Instead, my suspicion is campaign manager Tom Flanagan is planing a nasty campaign which will be all about Alison Redford. I recognize there's a need to define your opponent, but I think there's a greater need to define Smith as something more than an angry outsider.

That said, if you're going to attack Redford, the best issue to go at her on is probably the revelation that PC MLAs were paid thousands to sit on a government committee which never met. It's a simple message anyone can understand, and it speaks to government entitlement and waste - a good wedge issue for the Wildrosers.

Just don't go overboard on it. Like I said - the focus should be on Danielle.

Policy: Think of the early Reform Party - a lot of talk about reducing spending, a splash of democratic reform, and avoid talking about social issues as much as possible. Given Alberta's flirtations with private health care over the years, it will be interesting to see if Smith dares go down that road. Either way, Health Care will be a dicey issue for her, since it's nearly impossible for the Wildrose Party to meet its targeted spending cuts without axing something from the Health Care budget.


Raj Sherman and the Alberta Liberal Party

The PCs are led by a woman many have accused of being a "closet Liberal". The Liberals? They have a former PC in charge.

Sherman's story is an odd one. After being elected as a PC in 2008 and named Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Health, Sherman was fired in 2010 after sending off a late night e-mail to his entire address book, blasting Ed Stelmach's performance on the Health Care file. Since then, he has raised shocking claims about inefficiency, intimidation, and corruption in the Health system. Depending on who you ask, he's either a Health Care crusader or a crazy person.

Strategy: If the election gets framed as a Smith/Redford showdown, the Liberals are going to get squeezed down to a handful of ridings. And truth be told, there's probably not much they can do to prevent that at this point.

My advice would be to make the election all about Health Care - it's the one area where Sherman and the ALP have credibility and it's an important issue to voters. The Liberals may be fighting for media attention this campaign so they need to be focused, and Health Care is the smartest issue for them to be talking about.

Although they've now signed a deal, it likely helps that the Alberta Medical Association spent much of the past month running newspaper ads criticizing Redford's Health Care record.

Policy: The Liberals have released a relatively bold platform, funded by a proposed tax increase on the richest Albertans and businesses. Among their promises is a move towards free tuition, which should help the party hold their University ridings.


Brian Mason and the NDP

The NDP passed the Liberals federally in Alberta in 2008, and beat them by a 2:1 ratio there in 2011. Those results, coupled with positive polling numbers lead many to believe the NDP can vault ahead of the provincial Grits this campaign.

Somewhat surprisingly, Mason is the only leader back from the 2008 election. Despite the mustache, no one will mistake him for Jack Layton, but Mason is an underrated politician, capable of staying on message and delivering a good sound byte.

Strategy: NDP support remains concentrated in Edmonton, so that's where they'll spend the bulk of their time. Their message will likely be from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook.

Policy: With the Alberta Green Party desanctioned, the NDP have "gone green", right down to the colour palette on their website. Their four priorities include a "green energy plan" and "full value royalties", so they aren't afraid to go after big oil.


Glen Taylor and the Alberta Party

A year ago, the Alberta Party was making waves inside the political bubble - their messaging was solid, many of their key organizers had tasty victory with the Nenshi campaign, and they'd lured over ex-Liberal MLA Dave Taylor. However, like most internet fads, this one has faded, never really catching on with the public.

The Alberta Party will run around 30-40 candidates, with Taylor their only realistic hope (Glen that is, Dave isn't running). I'd put the over/under on their province-wide support at around 2%.

Strategy: Getting into the debates would be a huge boost for the Alberta Party, but this seems unlikely. Without that exposure, they'll need to rely on their strong online presence to get their message out.

Policy: They're big on #listening. You can check out their platform here.

This Week in Alberta - Flanagan Gets Back in the Saddle

With an Alberta election on the horizon this spring, the Wildrose Alliance have brought on Tom Flanagan to manage their campaign. For those of you who have never heard of Tom Flanagan, he was a political science professor at the University of Calgary (go Dinos!), and a key Harper strategist during his leadership run. Flanagan was the Conservative campaign manager in the 2004 federal election, so I can only hope it wasn't his idea to hold a "victory march" across Alberta in the campaign's closing weekend.

Since his exit from politics, Flanagan has writen a well-received book and several candid and fascinating articles on Canadian politics. Among his observations are that political attacks "don't have to be true, they just have to be plausible" - so I think that should give you an idea of the type of campaign the Wildrosers are gearing up for.

As for how that campaign goes, the latest poll shows Flanagan with a 9 point gap to overcome:

PCs 38%
Wildrose 29%
Liberals 14%
NDP 13%
Alberta Party 3%

Or...errr...a 37 point one:

PC 53%
Wildrose 16%
NDP 13%
Liberals 11%

Given the media seems to have quickly recovered from their case of Danielle-mania that plagued them throughout 2010, this is being spun as part of the "PCs cruising" narrative. It's starting to look like the Wildrose Party is merely playing for second place.

I'm not so convinced.

Of course, the smart money is on PCs winning a majority, but these polls reflect the level of uncertainty out there, which is to be expected when the top three parties enter the campaign with rookie leaders. And considering Danielle Smith remains the most impressive politician in this field, it would be foolish to count her out completely - just as it was foolish to assume she was unstoppable two years ago, after an unproven party won a single by election by the skin of its teeth.

The fact of the matter is, Alberta politics have become highly unpredictable and unstable in recent years, and campaigns matter. Give me long enough odds, and I'd gladly put some money down on Danielle and Dr. Tom giving the PCs a run this spring.

This Week in Alberta - Looking for a Leader

All eyes are on the PC and Liberal leadership races this summer in Alberta. Well, all eyes are on the PC leadership race, and a few eyes are glancing over at the Liberal one every now and then.

Still, the five Liberal candidates held a lively debate in Edmonton on Wednesday - you can read recaps of it here and here. Monday's debate in Calgary appears to have been a bit tamer, but Laurie Blakeman grabbed some headlines by suggesting the party should only run candidates in the seats it can win.

The ALP also earned some (rare) positive media this week, courtesy of the Globe & Mail.

On the PC leadership front, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, and Ted Morton lead the way in terms of caucus support. Mind you, given the increasing number of pot shots the candidates have been taking at their own government, it's unclear whether or not establishment support is actually a good thing.

Finally, for those of you who missed my Stampede Fashion Round-Up, here are some bonus pictures:









All photos save the Rae one, courtesy of Jenn Turcott.

Sixth Annual Politicians in Cowboy Hats

For a brief history of Stampede fashion, you can read the 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 round-ups.

Although Rick Hansen served as Stampede Parade Grand Marshal, all eyes were on Will and Kate this year. I do find it somewhat perplexing how many of the same people who lambasted Ignatieff for his time outside of the country went absolutely ga-ga over our future head of state visiting us for the first time in years. If a 6-day cross-country tour isn't the definition of "Just Visiting", I don't know what is. That said...



OH MY GOD! Will and Kate looked absolutely dashing!!! So young! So thin! So beautiful! And they pulled off Western wear more perfectly than most people who have lived in Calgary their entire lives! Their outfits were, like, so simple, and yet so perfectly perfect. I hereby crown them "best dressed" of the 2011 Stampede - the king and queen of fashion.



This was Naheed Nenshi's first stampede as mayor, and I know many were worried how the man would look in western wear. After all, Dave Bronconnier left big cowboy boots to fill - the man looked the part of the Mayor of Calgary every Stampede, riding 'ol leroy down 9th Avenue. Nenshi meanwhile, went to Harvard, is a University Professor, and spends his spare time blogging about population density rates in new housing developments. And let's be honest, the man doesn't really look like John Wayne (neither the actor nor the serial killer).

However, Naheed hit it out of the park this year. His outfit is irrelevant - the man rode a horse in the parade, thereby making him a Stampede All-Star.

With Stampede a success, the big question now turns to what he'll wear for pride.


FEDERAL POLITICIANS

Usually it's the federal politicians who make the biggest splash at the Stampede - for better or worse. After all, Liberal academics, socialists from Toronto, and environmental crusaders don't tend to have a large collection of denim in their closets. Heck, even the "Alberta boy" himself, Stephen Harper, committed the biggest gaffe in Stampede history.

But this year? Everyone's tired out from the election. Jack Layton needs to spend time with Quebec. The Liberal leadership contest hasn't reached the point where candidates need to parade in cowboy hats to court Calgary Liberals.

Stephen Harper did give a speech about how invincible he is (which always ends well in westerns...), but his stylist really earns her money come the second week of July every year, so the PM once again looked fine.



"Here's a pancake. You'll get your eggs once Canada is out of deficit in 2015."


PROVINCIAL POLITICS

In comparison, provincial politics are rockin' this summer with an election on the horizon, and the PCs and Liberals both in the midst of leadership contests. As always, the media was all abuzz about the chosen one, Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith.



And 5,000 came to the Stampede breakfast, but there were only 5 pancakes and 2 sausages. So Danielle Smith said "bring them to me" and she placed her hands over them. She broke the pancakes and gave them to Prime Minister Harper, telling him to distribute them to the multitudes. Lo and behold, they were all fed, with stacks of pancakes left over. And so the legend of Danielle Smith grew.


PC LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES

The Stampede may be the most important event of the entire PC leadership race. After all, it gives candidates a dozen socials a day to press the flesh in Alberta's largest city. As such, the contenders have all no doubt held countless strategy meetings and focus groups to find that outfit that says "I'm an Albertan, I enjoy a good rodeo, but I don't look like a member of the Village People when wearing a cowboy hat".

So as a public service, I've taken it upon myself to rank the PC leadership contenders choice of western wear.


1. Rick Orman



Winning the "Calgary Grit Best Dressed" trophy will likely be the highlight of the leadership race for Orman, so I hope he savours this. While Orman's outfit isn't Jim Prentice-good by any means, it's the best of a rather uninspiring field. And he gets bonus marks for the 3 cute children in western wear. After all, in politics, nothing beats cute children.


2. Alison Redford



Redford has a bit of a "female Harry Chase" look going on. I know that doesn't sound like a compliment, but it really is, since I consider Chase a stampede fashion superstar.


3. Ted "The Man" Morton



Here's what I said about Ted when I voted him "worst dressed" last year:

Once again, Ted is just trying to hard. When he ran for leadership, he drafted a catchy little country music jingle. He holds "golf and gun" fundraisers. But, really, he's just a university professor from the big city trying to pass himself off as a good 'ol country boy. And, in this case, it shows.

Morton has improved this year, though I'd probably only give the prof a "C-" grade, and the vest above leaves a lot to be desired. However, in browsing the 7 Stampede Breakfast photo-albums on his Facebook page, I did notice he mixed it up and owns at least 2 different cowboy hats, so I'll give him marks for effort.


4. Gary Mar



Here, PC leadership candidate Gary Mar poses with the winner of the Gary Mar lookalike contest.

While I recognize orange is a hot colour politically these days, I'm just not feeling it. I mean, seriously, have you ever seen Clint Eastwood wearing orange?


5. Doug Griffiths



Mercifully, Ed Stelmach no longer wears suit jackets to the Alberta Stampede, but his habit appears to have rubbed off on a few of his MLAs. Quite simply, it's just something you don't do.


6. Doug Horner



Like Griffiths, Horner dons the suit. What knocks him down to the "worst dressed" spot on this list is the cup of Starbucks in his left hand. Quite simply, cowboys do not drink Starbucks.

It appears Yvonne Fritz is equally aghast.