An update on all the people not running for Liberal leadership - Part 2

Yesterday, I looked at the ten names being tossed around most frequently for Liberal leadership - Rae, Leblanc, Trudeau, McGuinty^2, Garneau, Brison, Coderre, Cauchon, and Kennedy.

Today, a look at some long-shot candidates.


Mark Carney: The Bank of Canada governor would have instant credibility on the economy and, unlike many bankers, he's not uncharismatic. There is, of course, still the question of whether or not he's a Liberal - but no one seems too concerned about that.


Naheed Nenshi: The superstar Mayor of Calgary set Twitter abuzz when he tried out his French at a Toronto speech last year. I'd love to see Naheed toss his cowboy hat into the ring, but we're still 5 or 10 years away from having this conversation. At the rate we're going, the Liberals will have cycled through another three leaders by the time Nenshi is ready to run.


Gregor Robertson: Like Nenshi, the assumption is that Vancouver's Mayor will one day run provincially or federally. Yes, he was an NDP MLA provincially, but that's never stopped anyone from running for Liberal leader before, nor should it.


Ralph Goodale: There's a movement afoot to convince Goodale to run. Admittedly, his age and his french would make him a long shot, but the race would benefit immensely by having a Western Canadian of his stature in it.


Amanda Lang: To the best of my knowledge, there is only one Liberal in the country floating her name as a possible leadership candidate, but it may not be as far fetched as it sounds. We've seen media personalities jump to politics before, and as a business reporter she could make the economy her issue. And hey, her dad was a Liberal MP! I have no idea how she'd fare in the political game, but the idea of a well-spoken, attractive 41 year old woman from Manitoba leading the party certainly sounds good on paper.


Mark Holland: Young and fiery, Holland can give one heck of a speech. Even if he doesn't run for leader, I'd be shocked if he doesn't try to win back his seat in 2015.


Navdeep Bains: Another young star who lost his seat last May. Bains could count on widespread support from the Sikh community if he ran.


Martha Hall Findlay: Rev up the engine on the big red bus! The darling of the 2006 leadership race would enter this contest with a higher profile and would be treated as a "top tier" candidate by the media out of the gate.


Siobhan Coady: Any tour of "defeated rising stars" should include Coady, a well liked MP who can ask tough questions with emotion and confidence.


Geoff Regan: As a Liberal MP who has been in Ottawa for a decade and is still young enough to run, Regan should not be overlooked. Jane Taber recently floated his name as a possible candidate.


Jane Stewart: She's an accomplished women, with an impressive resume inside and outside of politics. As the "Draft Jane" team says, "everybody loves Jane". She's said she isn't running, but so has everyone else - we may yet get a "See Jane Run" headline or two.


Sheila Copps: She ran her presidential campaign as if she was running for leader. Even though she didn't win, she raised her profile and put a team together - two things that could be useful should she decide to try for the top prize again.


Jean-Marc Fournier: It wouldn't surprise me to see a provincial politician jump into this race, a la Kennedy in 2006, and Fournier is the name I've heard the most rumours about. Quebec's Justice Minister worked in Michael Ignatieff's office so he has federal connections to complement his 15 years of experience in provincial politics. Of course, with a resume like this, he might have his sights set on Jean Charest's job.


Borys Wrzesnewskyj: The Epoch Times, the must-read source for all your Liberal leadership gossip, reported that Wrzesnewskyj is planning a leadership bid, much to the horror of journalists everywhere who will now need to learn how to spell and pronounce his name.


Robert Ghiz: The 37 year old Premier of PEI has said "never say no" but wants to spend time with his two young children.


Belinda Stronach: She made some noise prior to the convention, so I wouldn't rule out a return to politics.


Andrew Coyne: There are Facebook ads and buttons, making this the best funded campaign to date.


Frank McKenna: You all knew this was coming as the punch line. Yet two commenters on David Akin's blog and one delegate I talked to in Ottawa suggested McKenna un-ironically. Some rumours will never die...


That's 28 names I've floated over the past two days, and I expect we'll hear a few others before all is said and done. By all means, float some more in the comments section.

Given the mood for change in the Liberal Party, it wouldn't at all surprise me if someone we're not even talking about ends up winning this thing.

The Field Narrows

From the initial field of a few hundred thousand rumoured candidates, it’s looking more and more like this will be a three-man race (c’mon Paul Hellyer – it’s not too late to get a team together!). The latest MPs to offer up the “thanks, but no thanks” are Martha Hall Findlay, Denis Coderre, David McGuinty, and Gerard Kennedy. Given the amount of virtual ink I spilled pushing Kennedy’s candidacy in 2006, I feel I should offer up a comment or two on his decision.

Although it’s not what first drew me to him, I think Gerard is one of the people in the Liberal Party who really “gets it”. He made “immigrant success” a key plank of his last leadership campaign, long before people realized that Jason Kenney was systematically winning over support from this traditional Liberal demographic. He was the only Liberal candidate last time who talked about party renewal and offered ideas to re-engage the base. Having been involved with Liberal politics in Alberta, he’s also one of the few MPs in the party who understands we can’t keep writing off the West…having talked with him about this a few times, I think he gets this better than a lot of western Liberals.

And while I know some will disagree with me, I think Gerard was bang on with his handling of the Afghanistan and Quebec nation grenades that were launched into the campaign last time.

I know he has his detractors inside the party and is far from a perfect politician but, despite that, he was one of only four to win new Liberal seats last election, and he didn’t even need a Danny Williams assist to do it.

Now, with all that said, I think Gerard was smart to take a pass (“know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em” yada yada yada). He’s a good candidate now and I would have supported him again if he ran, but he’ll be a better candidate in the future with some federal experience and a few more French lessons under his belt. I also think he can do a lot of good on the party renewal front from outside the race and I hope he directs his energy in that direction.

The Race for Stornoway 2

A preliminary look at the field...


THE ROOMATES

Rae and Ignatieff are the two names on everyone's lips, yet again. Both are better candidates than they were last time, when Iggy's newness to politics and Bob's newness to the Liberal Party were major turn-offs. Still, the anybody but Ragnatieff sentiment carried the day two years ago and it remains to be seen if opinions towards these two polarizing figures has shifted.


THE CLASS OF 2003

I'm going to predict none of the other candidates from the last "Race for Stornoway" run this time. Kennedy and Hall Findlay are both young and have made names for themselves in the party - unless they win, there's nothing to be gained for either of them. Brison has already said he won't run and I can't imagine Volpe wanting to give it another go, even if many of his former
supporters are now old enough to vote. Dryden might be tempted to run in an effort to raise issues, but he still has debts to pay off. Bevilacqua, Bennett, and Fry couldn't find enough support to make it to Montreal last time, so unless Carolyn Bennett wants to be the token female, I doubt any of them will make it to Vancouver.


THE 90S GANG

The early focus of the last leadership race was on the big names who took a pass - McKenna, Manley, Cauchon, Rock, Tobin... It would surprise me to see anyone in this crowd jump in when they skipped the more winnable race, but if McKenna or Manley do enter, the entire dynamic of this leadership race would change.


YOUNG GUNS

Dominic Leblanc seems like a lock to run at this point - worst case, he positions himself for "next time" and best case he comes up the middle to win. Justin Trudeau has wisely taken a pass...with his age and the speed the Liberals are chewing through leaders, he can likely sit out the next 4 or 5 leadership races. Will Ruby Dhalla toss her hat in or will she once again take a prominent role on the Ignatieff campaign? Will David McGuinty try and one up his brother?


AND ALL THE REST

Denis Coderre is musing about running as the voice out of Quebec, with Ujjal Dosanjh's name being tossed around as a Western candidate. If you want to wildly toss out other long-shot names from the west, I suppose there's always Goodale, Christy Clark, Carole Taylor, Anne McLellan, Glen Murray, Tina Keeper, or David Orchard. Of course, who knows which of the 75 current MPs think they have the right stuff...or which defeated MPs want to get back in the game. And, heck, Martha turned her run into a safe Toronto seat so perhaps someone else will try and turn that trick.

One thing is for certain - the speculation will be fierce. When the dust settles, I'm gonna say we have 5 candidates, with only three having a legit shot at the crown. But I wouldn't at all be surprised to be surprised. Nunziata anyone?

Liberal Critics Shuffle

-Rae stays in Foreign Affairs, while Findlay and Murray will get eased in with associate and vice chair portfolios.

-In the most interesting move of this shuffle, and one which will probably be overlooked by a lot of people, Gerard Kennedy is the new intergovernmental affairs critic from outside caucus, replacing Dominic LeBlanc (who also holds Justice). Given the recent squabbling between Flaherty and McGuinty, I doubt it’s coincidental that Dion has moved a high profile former McGuinty Cabinet Minister into this portfolio.

-With all that’s been going on in Quebec, it’s interesting to see Coderre shuffled out of Defense to Heritage, and Raymonde Folco dropped. (update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...silly internet is slow updating these things)


UPDATE: Here's the new Liberal seating chart, for people who care about that sort of thing. (hat tip Star)

And can anyone explain this to me?

A Dion spokeswoman said Mr. Coderre will continue dealing with military files in Quebec, in addition to fighting against the Conservative government's Bill C-10 as part of his new portfolio.

(update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...that pesky internet is slow updating these sorts of things)

Tories are a Sham, Grits hope to Rock

(that was the best of the comments section...although a strong showing by the Greens will certainly prompt an edit)

8:00 pm: Eight o'clock and the polls are now clos...what's that? Apparently, there is a concern that thousands of Vancouver Quadrans will log onto the net to see if Martha did or did not win, and will alter their vote accordingly. So, we've got - staggered voting!

Which means no results until 10 eastern....grrr....

So, log back on then. For now, based on exit polls and complicated statistical demographic projections, the Calgary Grit decision desk is ready to project that Bob Rae has been elected in Toronto Centre.

10:05 pm: With 3% of the polls reporting in Toronto Centre, Rae is running away with 59%. In second place are...the Greens! I kind of saw this one coming - walking down the streets today after work, there the green supporters were out in force...you could see their colours everywhere. Martha's up comfortably in Willowdale, while the Conservatives are solidly in front in Saskatchewan.

10:22 pm: Tracking against 2006 numbers, there's been about a 7-10% shift from Liberal to Conservative vote in Saskatchewan. Rae is up 6% on Bill Graham's totals, with a huge drop in NDP vote (to the Greens?). Martha has also increased the previous Liberal total and, once again, the NDP are down.

10:30 pm: Quadra is starting to roll in. And John Turner has a vote! Woo-hoo! Also, I think it bears mentioning that the Saskatchewan riding is very big geographically and things could shift if the aboriginal polls are the late ones coming in...but you've got to figure it's a CPC pickup. Oh, and the Greens are still second in Toronto Centre.

10:34 pm: I'm watching Newsnet now. Tim Powers says Martha isn't going to reach the 55% the Liberals got there last time...well, the latest numbers have her at 59%, compared to the 52% Peterson got last time. But, most baffling is the fact that Scott Reid still gets invited out to these panel shows...I mean, seriously?

10:39 pm: John Turner is up to 3 votes now. btw, the neorhino party has a very complex, if somewhat confusing, website.

For those wondering about turn-out, it's hard to tell since the smaller polls report first. But, at first glance, the turn-out is going to be abysmally bad, which is to be expected in a byelection.

10:49 pm: Interesting races:
-Quadra is neck and neck between Liberals and Tories right now for first (Libs up by 20 votes).
-The Greens and NDP are neck and neck everywhere except Saskatchewan.
-The Rhinos are beating Hellyer's Action Party by a 3 to 1 margin (6 votes to 2) in Quadra.
-Martha and Bob are fairly close to each other right now (Martha up by 0.7%), for bragging rights.

11:34 pm: Saskatchewan is looking like a blow-out...Libs might be able to blame it on Orchard but it's still an undeniably bad result. Joyce Murray is starting to pull away in Quadra, but this one will still be a drop in support from the last election.

You hate to take messages out of byelections because they're fairly meaningless when you get down to it, but seeing the Toronto blow-outs coupled with the problems out West, it just shows why the Liberal Party needs to build itself up in Western Canada.

So all in all, assuming they hold Quadra, not a great night for the Liberals (or the NDP for that mater), but far from disastrous and certainly not as damaging as Outremont. They will get three very strong MPs into the House and the end result 3 out of 4 is what most people were predicting.

UPDATE: The Liberals take Quadra by 110 votes. Eek! This from one of the few Western ridings that they held through the 80s. Full results here.

By-Elections Called

Four federal by elections have been called for March 17th which, one imagines, will make the urge to "go green" tempting for most candidates.

The two Ontario ones should be cake walks for Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay, giving Dion some fresh front bench strength. In Toronto Centre, Bill Graham won by over 16,000 votes in 2006 and the Tories are in disarray after the bizarre disqualification of Mark Warner. Expect NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki to finish second here. Willowdale is an equally safe Liberal seat - a nice reward to Martha Hall Findlay for her strong performance during the leadership race and her endorsement of Dion at the convention.

Out in BC, Vancouver Quadra has been Liberal since John Turner took it in '84, with Stephen Owen winning by 20% in 2006. After a contentious nomination that saw John Reynolds' hand picked "star" go down in defeat, Deborah Meredith will carry Harper's banner. The Liberals will send out former provincial Cabinet Minister Joyce Murray, the NDP will run Rebecca Coad, and the Greens are sending out Dan Grice. Expect the Liberals to hold onto this one.

The most interesting of the four comes is certainly the riding of Desnethe-Missnippi-Churchill River which engulfs all of northern Saskatchewan. The Liberals took the seat by 67 votes in 2006 when Gary Merasty knocked off Tory incumbent Jeremy Harrison (now a Sask Party MLA). This riding has been the source of controversy in recent days for the Liberals, with David Orchard gunning for the nomination amid rumours Dion will appoint former NDP MLA Joan Beatty. Personally, I hope Dion does go ahead with the appointment and not just because I'm not a big Orchard fan or because I have $10 riding on this by election in a bet I made before Merasty stepped down. Beatty is an accomplished female aboriginal who would be a big addition to the Liberal caucus and who stands a far better chance of winning the riding than Orchard.

Orchard certainly has the right to run for a seat in the next election given that he played a major role in electing Dion and does have a large following on the Prairies. And I can only imagine that the poor guy is having flashbacks to the Peter MacKay broken deal. Still, I'm sure another winnable rural riding can be found for David to run in. He should take a page from Justin Trudeau who, when denied the chance to run in Outremont, decided to fight a contested nomination in a Bloc held riding.

Mid-Week Musings

1. The NDP have a well produced ad up on their site which they are asking donations for to air. ABCer picks up the many obvious contradictions in their plea to air it.



2. Martha Hall Findlay has been appointed in Willowdale. I'm not principally opposed to appointments (of qualified people), but it seems to me like Martha could have won the nomination herself.


3. Bill Blaikie has announced he's calling it quits. His riding has been strongly NDP in the past but it just might be in play now. It kind of sucks for the NDP to lose Bill Blaikie while Pat Martin stays around.


4. Closer to home, Anne McLellan's old riding, Edmonton Centre will be having their nomination meeting next week. Running for that one are Nicole Martel, Don Padgett, and Jim Wachowich. The other hotly contested one is Edmonton Strathcona which now appears to be between Toeffal Chowdry and Claudette Roy (who would make a very strong candidate given her background). Apologies to the prospective candidates for butchering the spelling of at least half of those names, I'm sure.


5. Looks like those out West will need to scour US sites on the net for early election results again next time, as the Supreme Court upholds the publication ban.


6. Ed Stelmach has already flip-flopped on his hypothetical support of the new equalization formula. Best line of the article?

[PC spokesperson Tom] Olsen said he wasn't "sure what [Finance] Minister Oberg was talking about."

7. People are still all a tizzy over Mario Dumont's debate stunt. Apparently 1.7 million people watched the debate which, considering Quebec's population, is quite remarkable.