Sunday, March 16, 2008

Byelection Monday

First of all, I'm somewhat disappointed in myself that I couldn't think up a witty St. Patrick's day themed post title related to tomorrow's byelections.

Regardless, after the Outremont disaster in the fall, people will be playing close attention to these four byelections. The common media consensus is that the Liberals will coast to easy wins in the two Toronto seats and in BC - but, at the same time, I've been hearing rumblings that the Liberals might be in trouble in both Quadra and Willowdale. Losing either of those would certainly be a body blow on par with Outremont - maybe even bigger if you consider the previous margins of victory and the strong candidates the Liberals are running. On the flip side, if they can go four for four and get Joan Beatty in, there will be a massive infusion of talent into the Liberal front benches of the House of Commons.

While the focus in the media is sure to be on the Liberals, it will also be interesting to see how the other parties fare. The Conservatives shot themselves in Toronto Centre with the Marc Warner fiasco, but Willowdale will be a good test to see if a potential GTA breakthrough is on the horizon. For the NDP and greens, they aren't in the hunt to win, but by focusing their volunteers on the byelection ridings, they'll be hoping to see a rise in popular vote.

So check back in here tomorrow night for the results.

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  • I really would not expect anything in Willowdale; it's super-safe, and Martha is an extremely strong candidate.

    Concerning the Saskatchewan riding, I'm actually surprised it's as close as it is (in that it's generally thought it will be close), given the popularity of the government in Western Canada and the fact that it went Liberal by a razor margin last time (plus, that riding seems to like changing parties every election for the last two decades).

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 10:36 PM  

  • I read that the seat in Willowdale is very safe. So safe that losing would be like the weatherman calling for a snowstorm in mid July and it happening

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:52 PM  

  • Bad karma for the Quadra candidate.

    By Blogger matt, at 11:06 PM  

  • What rumblings are you hearing in Vancouver Quadra?

    I don't know if I'd call the Vancouver Sun article today very relevant when they quote the opposing candidates to determine the point of the story . . . as well as the headline. Did they expect the NDP and Conservative candidates to say the Liberals would win the day before the election?

    But if you've heard more than that, please let us know what you're hearing.

    By Blogger Joseph, at 11:28 PM  

  • CG: I'm disappointed. Perhaps:

    "Tories are a Sham, Grits hope to Rock..."

    Or how about:

    "Byelection Blarney"

    Going to be interesting... turn-out predictions?

    By Blogger Enlightened Savage, at 11:52 PM  

  • Liberals picked a weak candidate in DMCR. Expect a Conservative win.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:58 AM  

  • Four-Leaf Circus imo

    By Blogger Antonio, at 1:07 AM  

  • I'm disappointed, Dan. You could have used some sort of "four leaf clover" for the "four by-elections" theme.

    Toronto must be making you soft, you need to come back west and get your edge back. ;)

    By Blogger daveberta, at 2:10 AM  

  • “Liberals might be in trouble in both Quadra and Willowdale.”

    The LPC candidates in those ridings are kinda lightweight. Doesn’t mean that they will lose. After all, these are safe seats.

    I would be looking at the Churchill and Rae ridings. A loss in Churchill would be another blow to dion’s credibility and political strategy. Bob Rae could claim that his past record is behind him, if he does well.

    It’s now in the hands of the voters and non-voters. Dion’s supporters can’t blame Iggy this time if something goes wrong. Iggy and dion made a point of touring Quarda at the same time.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:26 AM  

  • I'd point out that even without the Warner Fiasco, the Conservatives were not in play in Toronto-Centre. They have finished third behind the NDP for the last 3 Federal elections, and that wasn't going to change today regardless of who was running.

    By Blogger northwestern_lad, at 5:04 AM  

  • I don't think the point is for the CPC to be in the play, the point is for them to test out their various strategies, one of which is apparently sophisticated ethnic targetting. I assume they replaced the candidate for this reason. Warner might seem better if you look at the riding as a whole, but he might be wrong for the specific CPC targetted groups. If their strategy is seen to work in TC, they can then use it with more confidence in ridings where they will be in the play.

    By Anonymous clh, at 8:16 AM  

  • Well, byelections being byelections, I'm just going to say I expect Quadra and Willowdale to be a lot closer than they were in the general election. But, yeah, when you have a 30 point lead, it's hard to lose which is why I'd expect 3/4 for the Liberals.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:20 AM  

  • I predict low voter turnout, three Liberal wins by lower margins, Conservatives take the Sask seat, increased NDP vote in Toronto Centre and increased Green vote in Quadra.
    Can we agree Elizabeth May has forfeited the right to be in the next leader's debate by sitting out seven by-elections?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 2:19 PM  

  • I think CLH has a good point, though I would argue that the real message they are testing out is the everyone else is soft on crime / only the conservatives can protect you angle. In Quadra in Vancouver, and from what I saw of debate coverage in Toronto-Centre, I felt sort of hit over my head myself with that message.

    By Blogger Joseph, at 2:35 PM  

  • If a pretty representative sample of Canadian Voters have bought into the Conservatives "not a leader" message
    on Dion, then this is their chance to give him the boot right off the national stage.

    The Libs have to push a 3 out of 4 as the greatest victory since 68.

    By Blogger John W, at 3:52 PM  

  • B'Gosh, B'Gorah and B'Lections

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:44 PM  

  • Good point about Elizabeth May. She's had a couple of shots at seats that were at least fertile ground for the greens.

    Was this another behind the scenes deals with Dion.

    Speaking of which, I don't see her saying Dion would make a great Prime Minister anymore.

    By Anonymous mort, at 6:44 PM  


    By Blogger HammertimeGP, at 2:53 PM  

  • By Blogger Gege Dai, at 2:48 AM  

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