By-Elections Called

Four federal by elections have been called for March 17th which, one imagines, will make the urge to "go green" tempting for most candidates.

The two Ontario ones should be cake walks for Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay, giving Dion some fresh front bench strength. In Toronto Centre, Bill Graham won by over 16,000 votes in 2006 and the Tories are in disarray after the bizarre disqualification of Mark Warner. Expect NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki to finish second here. Willowdale is an equally safe Liberal seat - a nice reward to Martha Hall Findlay for her strong performance during the leadership race and her endorsement of Dion at the convention.

Out in BC, Vancouver Quadra has been Liberal since John Turner took it in '84, with Stephen Owen winning by 20% in 2006. After a contentious nomination that saw John Reynolds' hand picked "star" go down in defeat, Deborah Meredith will carry Harper's banner. The Liberals will send out former provincial Cabinet Minister Joyce Murray, the NDP will run Rebecca Coad, and the Greens are sending out Dan Grice. Expect the Liberals to hold onto this one.

The most interesting of the four comes is certainly the riding of Desnethe-Missnippi-Churchill River which engulfs all of northern Saskatchewan. The Liberals took the seat by 67 votes in 2006 when Gary Merasty knocked off Tory incumbent Jeremy Harrison (now a Sask Party MLA). This riding has been the source of controversy in recent days for the Liberals, with David Orchard gunning for the nomination amid rumours Dion will appoint former NDP MLA Joan Beatty. Personally, I hope Dion does go ahead with the appointment and not just because I'm not a big Orchard fan or because I have $10 riding on this by election in a bet I made before Merasty stepped down. Beatty is an accomplished female aboriginal who would be a big addition to the Liberal caucus and who stands a far better chance of winning the riding than Orchard.

Orchard certainly has the right to run for a seat in the next election given that he played a major role in electing Dion and does have a large following on the Prairies. And I can only imagine that the poor guy is having flashbacks to the Peter MacKay broken deal. Still, I'm sure another winnable rural riding can be found for David to run in. He should take a page from Justin Trudeau who, when denied the chance to run in Outremont, decided to fight a contested nomination in a Bloc held riding.

You're Fired!

The Tories have been quietly nixing candidates from running for them in the next election. Now, don't get me wrong - Bill Casey voted against the budget and there should be consequences for that. He knew what he was getting into so it's hard to shed too many tears for him...especially considering he's got a good chance of getting re-elected as an independent.

However, the case of Mark Warner is quite interesting. At first glance, Mark sounds like exactly the type of candidate the Tories need. He's an international trade lawyer with a fantastic bio who obviously cares enough about his party to be willing to lose to Bob Rae. Considering some of the questionable candidates the Tories have let run for them in recent by elections, this one seems even weirder.

But, you see, there are some major problems with Mark. For starters, he attended an international AIDS conference in Toronto last year - a big no-no considering some of the questionable characters who attended.

Mark's also been talking about Toronto centric issues. You know, things like poverty, housing, and Andrew Raycroft's poor play. Given that real leaders set priorities and that these are not in Harper's top priorities, it would have been insane to allow a Conservative candidate to talk about these issues for fear of people getting the wrong idea that they mattered to the Conservatives.

Makes sense. Given the bedrock of Tory support that exists in the GTA, why on earth would you want a strong candidate talking about issues that matter to Torontonians?


UPDATE: I know Stephen Harper is a smart guy but I don't really think every move he makes is part of some master Machiavellian plan. Today's Star suggests that these moves are intended to boost the NDP in a gambit to defeat the Liberals.

Umm...no.

First of all, Toronto Centre is a safe seat. And not the same way Outremont is a safe seat. The Liberals got twice the votes of their nearest competitor last time out - the real battle there is for second and I fail to see how it figures into Harper's master plan for his party to finish behind the NDP in a city they would hope to, one imagines, one day win some seats.

As for Guelph, where Brent Barr was forced out it's even more perplexing. Here are the 2006 results:

Lib 23,662
CPC 18,342
NDP 13,561

Even though the NDP have a good candidate running, I fail to see how the second place party self-sabotaging would help defeat the Liberals. And, unlike in Toronto Centre where there may be an anti-Rae vote, I tend to seriously doubt the hypothesis that the second choice of soft Tory voters is the NDP.