By-Elections Called

Four federal by elections have been called for March 17th which, one imagines, will make the urge to "go green" tempting for most candidates.

The two Ontario ones should be cake walks for Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay, giving Dion some fresh front bench strength. In Toronto Centre, Bill Graham won by over 16,000 votes in 2006 and the Tories are in disarray after the bizarre disqualification of Mark Warner. Expect NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki to finish second here. Willowdale is an equally safe Liberal seat - a nice reward to Martha Hall Findlay for her strong performance during the leadership race and her endorsement of Dion at the convention.

Out in BC, Vancouver Quadra has been Liberal since John Turner took it in '84, with Stephen Owen winning by 20% in 2006. After a contentious nomination that saw John Reynolds' hand picked "star" go down in defeat, Deborah Meredith will carry Harper's banner. The Liberals will send out former provincial Cabinet Minister Joyce Murray, the NDP will run Rebecca Coad, and the Greens are sending out Dan Grice. Expect the Liberals to hold onto this one.

The most interesting of the four comes is certainly the riding of Desnethe-Missnippi-Churchill River which engulfs all of northern Saskatchewan. The Liberals took the seat by 67 votes in 2006 when Gary Merasty knocked off Tory incumbent Jeremy Harrison (now a Sask Party MLA). This riding has been the source of controversy in recent days for the Liberals, with David Orchard gunning for the nomination amid rumours Dion will appoint former NDP MLA Joan Beatty. Personally, I hope Dion does go ahead with the appointment and not just because I'm not a big Orchard fan or because I have $10 riding on this by election in a bet I made before Merasty stepped down. Beatty is an accomplished female aboriginal who would be a big addition to the Liberal caucus and who stands a far better chance of winning the riding than Orchard.

Orchard certainly has the right to run for a seat in the next election given that he played a major role in electing Dion and does have a large following on the Prairies. And I can only imagine that the poor guy is having flashbacks to the Peter MacKay broken deal. Still, I'm sure another winnable rural riding can be found for David to run in. He should take a page from Justin Trudeau who, when denied the chance to run in Outremont, decided to fight a contested nomination in a Bloc held riding.

And then we're going to Red Deer, and Prince George, and Moose Jaw...yeaaaaaaa!

I got the chance to listen to a good discussion on a potential "308 riding" strategy for the Liberals over the weekend at Western Caucus in Saskatchewan. This isn't a Liberal party policy - just a proposal from a member, but it's certainly worth taking a look at and discussing.


In Other News...

While his move to Europe has allowed me to learn a lot more about southwestern French municipal school board elections, it has meant less Canadian political blogging from Paul Wells. But, never fear, Hansard is still accessible from Blackberries around the globe and Paul digs up some old gems from the Alliance of days gone by in this post.


Also, I'm thinking of making up a list of reasons Ed Stelmach is my favourite Premier ever. When it's done, I'll be sure to include "muses about whatever is on his mind" to that. Back when he was Transport Minister, Ed thought it would be fun to float the idea of changing the fast lane on Alberta highways to the right lane. As you might imagine, he got a bit of flack for it. In Sunday's Rick Bell column, Ed starts musing about next year's budget (wow - even Paul Martin never leaked budget info this far in advance). While there is sometimes value to floating a trial balloon, when you do it with every thought that pops into your head, eventually you start to look like you're flip-flopping, eventually you start to look indecisive, and eventually you start to get criticized for trial balloons you rightfully realize are dumb ideas (see: highway fast lane example above).



Finally, the news is from last week, but probably worth reposting: Gary Merasty is quitting his northern Saskatchewan seat. Unlike a lot of the veteran Liberals who have announced they won't be running again, this one actually is a big loss since Merasty was more than simply the trivia answer to "who is Saskatchewan's other Liberal MP"; He was a young up-and-commer with deep connections in his riding. Expect the by election for his seat to be very hotly contested.