Liberal Critics Shuffle

-Rae stays in Foreign Affairs, while Findlay and Murray will get eased in with associate and vice chair portfolios.

-In the most interesting move of this shuffle, and one which will probably be overlooked by a lot of people, Gerard Kennedy is the new intergovernmental affairs critic from outside caucus, replacing Dominic LeBlanc (who also holds Justice). Given the recent squabbling between Flaherty and McGuinty, I doubt it’s coincidental that Dion has moved a high profile former McGuinty Cabinet Minister into this portfolio.

-With all that’s been going on in Quebec, it’s interesting to see Coderre shuffled out of Defense to Heritage, and Raymonde Folco dropped. (update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...silly internet is slow updating these things)


UPDATE: Here's the new Liberal seating chart, for people who care about that sort of thing. (hat tip Star)

And can anyone explain this to me?

A Dion spokeswoman said Mr. Coderre will continue dealing with military files in Quebec, in addition to fighting against the Conservative government's Bill C-10 as part of his new portfolio.

(update: Folco was shuffled out last fall...that pesky internet is slow updating these sorts of things)

Tories are a Sham, Grits hope to Rock

(that was the best of the comments section...although a strong showing by the Greens will certainly prompt an edit)

8:00 pm: Eight o'clock and the polls are now clos...what's that? Apparently, there is a concern that thousands of Vancouver Quadrans will log onto the net to see if Martha did or did not win, and will alter their vote accordingly. So, we've got - staggered voting!

Which means no results until 10 eastern....grrr....

So, log back on then. For now, based on exit polls and complicated statistical demographic projections, the Calgary Grit decision desk is ready to project that Bob Rae has been elected in Toronto Centre.

10:05 pm: With 3% of the polls reporting in Toronto Centre, Rae is running away with 59%. In second place are...the Greens! I kind of saw this one coming - walking down the streets today after work, there the green supporters were out in force...you could see their colours everywhere. Martha's up comfortably in Willowdale, while the Conservatives are solidly in front in Saskatchewan.

10:22 pm: Tracking against 2006 numbers, there's been about a 7-10% shift from Liberal to Conservative vote in Saskatchewan. Rae is up 6% on Bill Graham's totals, with a huge drop in NDP vote (to the Greens?). Martha has also increased the previous Liberal total and, once again, the NDP are down.

10:30 pm: Quadra is starting to roll in. And John Turner has a vote! Woo-hoo! Also, I think it bears mentioning that the Saskatchewan riding is very big geographically and things could shift if the aboriginal polls are the late ones coming in...but you've got to figure it's a CPC pickup. Oh, and the Greens are still second in Toronto Centre.

10:34 pm: I'm watching Newsnet now. Tim Powers says Martha isn't going to reach the 55% the Liberals got there last time...well, the latest numbers have her at 59%, compared to the 52% Peterson got last time. But, most baffling is the fact that Scott Reid still gets invited out to these panel shows...I mean, seriously?

10:39 pm: John Turner is up to 3 votes now. btw, the neorhino party has a very complex, if somewhat confusing, website.

For those wondering about turn-out, it's hard to tell since the smaller polls report first. But, at first glance, the turn-out is going to be abysmally bad, which is to be expected in a byelection.

10:49 pm: Interesting races:
-Quadra is neck and neck between Liberals and Tories right now for first (Libs up by 20 votes).
-The Greens and NDP are neck and neck everywhere except Saskatchewan.
-The Rhinos are beating Hellyer's Action Party by a 3 to 1 margin (6 votes to 2) in Quadra.
-Martha and Bob are fairly close to each other right now (Martha up by 0.7%), for bragging rights.

11:34 pm: Saskatchewan is looking like a blow-out...Libs might be able to blame it on Orchard but it's still an undeniably bad result. Joyce Murray is starting to pull away in Quadra, but this one will still be a drop in support from the last election.

You hate to take messages out of byelections because they're fairly meaningless when you get down to it, but seeing the Toronto blow-outs coupled with the problems out West, it just shows why the Liberal Party needs to build itself up in Western Canada.

So all in all, assuming they hold Quadra, not a great night for the Liberals (or the NDP for that mater), but far from disastrous and certainly not as damaging as Outremont. They will get three very strong MPs into the House and the end result 3 out of 4 is what most people were predicting.

UPDATE: The Liberals take Quadra by 110 votes. Eek! This from one of the few Western ridings that they held through the 80s. Full results here.

By-Elections Called

Four federal by elections have been called for March 17th which, one imagines, will make the urge to "go green" tempting for most candidates.

The two Ontario ones should be cake walks for Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay, giving Dion some fresh front bench strength. In Toronto Centre, Bill Graham won by over 16,000 votes in 2006 and the Tories are in disarray after the bizarre disqualification of Mark Warner. Expect NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki to finish second here. Willowdale is an equally safe Liberal seat - a nice reward to Martha Hall Findlay for her strong performance during the leadership race and her endorsement of Dion at the convention.

Out in BC, Vancouver Quadra has been Liberal since John Turner took it in '84, with Stephen Owen winning by 20% in 2006. After a contentious nomination that saw John Reynolds' hand picked "star" go down in defeat, Deborah Meredith will carry Harper's banner. The Liberals will send out former provincial Cabinet Minister Joyce Murray, the NDP will run Rebecca Coad, and the Greens are sending out Dan Grice. Expect the Liberals to hold onto this one.

The most interesting of the four comes is certainly the riding of Desnethe-Missnippi-Churchill River which engulfs all of northern Saskatchewan. The Liberals took the seat by 67 votes in 2006 when Gary Merasty knocked off Tory incumbent Jeremy Harrison (now a Sask Party MLA). This riding has been the source of controversy in recent days for the Liberals, with David Orchard gunning for the nomination amid rumours Dion will appoint former NDP MLA Joan Beatty. Personally, I hope Dion does go ahead with the appointment and not just because I'm not a big Orchard fan or because I have $10 riding on this by election in a bet I made before Merasty stepped down. Beatty is an accomplished female aboriginal who would be a big addition to the Liberal caucus and who stands a far better chance of winning the riding than Orchard.

Orchard certainly has the right to run for a seat in the next election given that he played a major role in electing Dion and does have a large following on the Prairies. And I can only imagine that the poor guy is having flashbacks to the Peter MacKay broken deal. Still, I'm sure another winnable rural riding can be found for David to run in. He should take a page from Justin Trudeau who, when denied the chance to run in Outremont, decided to fight a contested nomination in a Bloc held riding.