Revirement

While the latest round of elections suggest Canadians are craving stability, the situation is starkly different in Quebec. Consider the latest poll from Leger:

Legault 36%
Lib 22%
PQ 18%
ADQ 9%
QS 7%
Green 5%
Other 3%

"Legault" refers to "a new party led by Francois Legault", the former PQ Cabinet Minister who heads the Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec, a group hoping to move beyond the sovereignty debate with a bold "pro-future" agenda. The coalition won't declare their electoral intentions until November 14th, yet they sit in first place, with nearly as much support as the Liberals and PQ combined.

It seems far flung to image a party being able to form, organize itself, and take power in a year or two but after seeing the orange wave sweep across Quebec in a matter of weeks this spring, it would be rash to count out Legault. Quebecers are clearly not satisfied with their options, and haven't hesitated to mark "none of the above" in the past.

The Other Other Election

Because, in Canada, you now must always signal an election by calling off a trip to China:

QUEBEC and MONTREAL — Quebec voters will likely face another election campaign before Christmas as Premier Jean Charest plans to call an election next week for a Dec. 8 vote.

The stage was set for a snap election when Mr. Charest Monday cancelled his participation in the Council of the Federation's economic mission to China. The trip includes four other premiers and members of the Canada-China Business Council, who are scheduled to meet Chinese government and business leader next week in Beijing, Chongqing and Shanghai. Last Thursday, Mr.Charest, who chairs the Council of the Federation, repeated that he intended to be part of the China mission.

Political Suicide

So Jean Charest is ready to die on the hill fighting for a tax cut that 70% of Quebecers are against?

Uh-huh. Yeah right. I'm pretty sure the guy is gonna blink on this one.

Poulet

An interesting game of chicken is developing in Quebec, with both the ADQ and PQ promising to vote against Charest's budget over the fiscal imbalance solving tax cuts. I'm sure someone will blink in this one, probably Charest, since a defeat at this point would probably mean Mario Dumont taking over as Premier.

Of course, given Harper's talking points over the past year, this begs the obvious question: Was all that money for Quebec in Flaherty's budget intended to help defeat the most federalist Premier from Quebec in Stephen Harper's lifetime?

Bloggers Hotstove

I played hooky for one of the election readiness workshops at the ALP convention this Saturday to phone in to the Quebec election post-mortem bloggers hotstove with Antonio, Tasha, and our host Greg.

I'll have a full convention recap up tomorrow but, I must say, all the talk this past month about the Quebec election has me yearning for an Alberta provincial election worth talking about.

The morning after the morning after

Jean Charest: It could have been worse for him but the man is certainly vulnerable, which means there will be intense pressure from within his own party to resign or, at the very least, rebrand. Minority governments are dicey in even the most stable political places and Quebec politics is the antithesis of stability so it’s really hard to predict how he’ll fare or if the PLQ can afford a leadership race before the next election. Because of that, I’ll predict he stays around until the next vote.

Andre Boisclair: The PQ will be having a leadership review vote this June. Given that the party has been known to knife even their most successful leaders, I can’t for the life of me imagine Boisclair surviving the vote. The timing of the vote certainly opens the door for Duceppe to jump provincially should the PQ dump Boisclair but I can’t really see why anyone would want to lead the PQ these days and, we should remember, he already turned the job down once under far better circumstances. Regardless of who their leader is, the PQ has a real identity crisis on their hands now and might not even promise a referendum in their next campaign platform.

Mario Dumont: Usually in minority governments, the Premier is the man under the microscope but I think it’s fair to say all eyes will be on Mario Dumont. He’s going to have to borrow a few muzzles from his buddy Steve to keep the wing nuts who were elected in check. He’ll also have to show that his party is credible and ready to govern. If he performs well as opposition leader, the next election is his to lose…but on the flip side, if he stumbles, the ADQ could fall back to fringe status next time since he doesn’t have the entrenched voter loyalty the other two parties command. It will be very interesting to see how much pressure he puts on Charest, in particular with respect to demanding more “autonomy”.

The Bloc Quebecois: Is in serious trouble next election. I’ll go into this a bit more as we lead up to the election since it’s not directly tied to the provincial vote but, for now, is there anyone out there who can name one issue they have to attract voters? Because I don't think an anti-scab law is going to exactly capture the imagination of the Quebecois.

Stephen Harper: I don’t necessarily buy the argument that what happens provincially translates federally…if anything provincial governments usually counter their federal counterparts. However, what the strength of the ADQ has shown is that Harper certainly has the potential to gain votes in Quebec. It shows there are Quebecers willing to vote for a party with conservative values under the right circumstances. Now, no one really knows how much of the vote was a protest vote, how much was anti-Montreal, how much was about reasonable accommodation, how much was about Dumont’s personal popularity, and how much was about Charest and Boiclair being universally hated. But the potential is there for a Quebec breakthrough.

That said, outside of Quebec, I don’t see this as a great victory for Harper. The man burned through a wad lot of political capital (and monetary capital too) to get Jean Charest re-elected and the end result was anything but a resounding victory for Harper’s ally.

Numbers

I'll have some analysis later today but here are some of the raw numbers from the Quebec election (huge thanks to AT for e-mailing them in!).


Seat totals by region

Montreal
Lib: 20, -1
P.Q: 8, +1
ADQ: 0

Montreal Suburbs (Laval and South Shore)
Lib: 10, -3
P.Q: 4
ADQ: 3 +3

Capitale Nationale
Lib: 2, -7
P.Q: 2
ADQ: 7, +7 (ADQ gained Vanier in byelection)

South East (Eastern Townships and Eastern Monteregie)
Lib: 6, -4
P.Q: 3, -2
ADQ: 6, +6

North of Townships
Lib: 2, -1
P.Q: 5, +1
ADQ: 1

Outaouais and North West Quebec
Lib: 5 -2
P.Q: 4 +2
ADQ: 0

Saguenay
Lib: 0, -2
P.Q: 7, +2
ADQ: 0

Centre Quebec
Lib: 1, -5
P.Q: 0, -2
ADQ:10, +7

Rest of Quebec (Mauricie, Lanaudiere, Laurentides)
Lib: 2, -3
P.Q: 3, -11
ADQ:14, +14


Seat Transfer

Lib gained from P.Q: 1 (lost in byelection)
Laurier-Dorion

P.Q gained from Liberal: 6
Cremazie, Abitibi Est, Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, Jonquiere, Roberval

ADQ gained from Liberal: 21
Huntingdon, La Prairie, Marguerite-D'Youville, Charlesbourg, Chaveau, Jean Lesage, La Peltrie, Montmorency, Portneuf, Chambly, Iberville, St. Jean, Shefford, Arthabaska, Beauce Sud, Bellechasse, Levis, Montmagny-L'Islet, Maskinonge, Trois Rivieres, Groulx

ADQ gained from P.Q: 15
Johnson, St. Hyacinthe-Bagot, Drummond, Nicolet-Yamaska, Champlain, St. Maurice, Berthier, Joliette, L'Assomption, Masson, Terrebonne, Blainville, Deux Montagnes, Mirabel, Prevost


Random Observations

1.Bourget, only riding in Montreal the ADQ received over 15% in 2003. they went from 17.31% to 22.86% this time.

2.The ADQ vote declined in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue. From 27.66% to 26.84%. This decline might have helped the P.Q take the riding from the Liberals. The former P.Q M.N.A for the riding who was narrowly defeated in 2003 was Remy Trudel who was the top vote getter in Quebec for the N.D.P in 1988. Does anybody think he would have run for the P.Q leadership had he been reelected in 2003?

3. The Liberal vote from the 2003 election to this one declined in 122 ridings.

The only 3 it increased:
-Riviere du Loup (Mario Dumont's riding). The Liberal candidate was the mayor of Riviere du Loup. The Liberal vote went from 23.76% to 28.15%
-Chicoutimi. Andre Harvey was the Liberal candidate. He was a P.C M.P from 1984 to 1993 and a Liberal M.P from 1997-2004. The Liberal vote went from 35.68% to 36.98%
-Lac St Jean. Liberal vote went from 26.17% to 28.85%

4. Only 4 of the 24 Liberal Cabinet Ministers who were running again were defeated: Pierre Corbeil, Michel Despres, Francoise Gauthier, Carole Theberge

5. Quebec Solidaire best ridings:
-Mercier, 29.38%, 2nd, Amir Khadir
-Gouin, 26.04% 2nd, Francoise David
-Ste. Marie-St. Jacques, 14.16%, Manon Masse
-Hochelaga, 9.63% Gabriel Chevrefils
-Rosemont, 9.30%, Francois Saillant


Voter Turn-Out (via Coyne)

2007: 71.3%
2003: 70.4% (record low)
1998: 78.3%
1994: 81.6%
1989: 75.0%
1985: 75.7%
1981: 82.5%
1976: 85.3%
1973: 80.4%
1970: 84.2%
1966: 73.6%
1962: 79.6%
1960: 81.7%

Great Moments in Spin

Mr. Boisclair said he plans to lead the party into the next election, but admitted he had misread the electorate during the campaign.

Another referendum on sovereignty “was not, apparently, a priority,” he told the media.

However, he said the overall voting trends supported the PQ's position within Quebec. Two-thirds of seats were given to people who do not accept the status quo, he said.

Couldn't the Green Party claim victory on those same grounds?

Quebec Votes

Random thoughts throughout the evening:

6:45 pm: Libs 49 (35%), PQ 30 (31%), ADQ 35 (27%)
I haven't been able to get near a TV for so I don't know what the talking heads are saying but I, for one, am really surprised by the ration of seats to popular votes for each party. The common consensus all along has been that a popular vote total like this would probably mean a PQ minority government (or close to it), which means we're getting some weird vote splits somewhere.

6:55 pm: The ADQ has just pulled ahead. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three parties come out on top when all is said and done...

7:00 pm: Regardless of how this vote turns out, I do think it would be fair to call Jean Charest one of the most overrated politicians of the last 20 years.

7:38 pm: Still neck and neck between Charest and Dumont, with the popular vote almost identical for all three parties...which means, for once, the PLQ is actually being helped by the vote distribution.

With the PQ solidly in third place and that party's penchant to knifing successful leaders in the back, I think it's safe to say that the Andre Boisclair experiment will be coming to a close very soon. Does Gilles Ducceppe jump? I guess it depends on federal election timing.

7:47 pm: Jean Charest down by 400 votes in Sherbrooke to the PQ. Which means it's highly possible that the Liberals form government, Charest resigns as PLQ leader, and someone else becomes Premier. In the comments section, there's already some speculation he could run for Harper in the next federal election. If you're into politics, it's impossible not to have been fascinated by this election.

8:19 pm: Lowest vote percentage by the PLQ since confederation: 33.78% (1976)
Lowest vote percentage by the PQ since 1976: 33.24% (2003)

8:21 pm: Everyone has called it as a Liberal minority. But with 161/212 polls reporting, Charest trails badly in his riding. The big question now becomes, does he stay or does he go?

8:33 pm: Got a bus to catch and I likely won't update until later tonight so I thought I'd muse a bit on the federal implications of this.

For the Liberals, a Boisclair win was obviously the best case scenario for them so Dion certainly doesn't get very lucky in this one. I can't imagine anyone being afraid of a referendum after seeing this result. Let's face it, with the exception of the Adscam protest vote, the PQ/BQ have been on the decline over the past decade (in part thanks to the Chretien/Dion Plan B). I think the BQ is heading for big loses next campaign, especially if Ducceppe jumps provincially.

For Harper, he can certainly claim that his brand of federalism helped crush the PQ into the ground but, at the same time, he certainly didn't do much to help re-elect Jean Charest and the budget tax cuts appear to have somewhat backfired, both inside Quebec and outside. It'll be one of those things which everyone can spin pretty effortlessly.

9:42 pm: Mario Dumont speaking now. I wonder if he'll thank the "anti-ethnic vote" for this one...

9:45 pm: Jean Charest is now declared to have won his seat in Sherbrooke.

9:48 pm: Radio Canada is now reporting that Sherbrooke has been won by Al Gore.

Balance

Couldn't have said it better myself so I won't even try.

Neck and Neck and Neck

Wow.

Liberals 33%
PQ 30%
ADQ 30%

First of all, I guess I was wrong, wrong, wrong about Tuesday's debate. To me, it looked like Charest had won and Dumont was nothing more than a hyperactive squirrel (think Jack Layton in the 2004 debates) but it seems Quebecers saw it differently or, at the very least, the overpass stunt paid some dividends.

So this leaves the election outcome a complete crapshot. Any of the three parties could conceivably form what will almost certainly be Quebec's first minority government in over a century.

And that is what makes today's proclamation by Andre Boisclair so interesting:

The Parti Québécois would want to hold a referendum on sovereignty even if it forms only a minority government, leader André Boisclair said Friday.

Obviously, Boisclair would never get a referendum law passed in a minority government so he's just blowing smoke up the electorate's ass. But if he maintains that his raison d'être of forming government is to hold another referendum, it becomes hard to see how Mario Dumont could justify proping up a Boisclair government. If you don't believe in the first priority of the government, how can you say you have confidence in them? Especially after the two bickered to no end on Tuesday and have very little common ground anywhere in their platforms.

What I'm getting at is, let's suppose, the numbers above hold and we get a seat breakdown similar to what Hill & Knowlton predicts (two bad assumptions to make, but, whatever):

PQ 49
PLQ 43
ADQ 33

In such a situation, it seems to me that Jean Charest could make a very strong case to stay as Premier, governing with ADQ support. He'd have won the popular vote and could promise a more stable government than Boisclair.

I'm not sure if we'd see a formal coalition, but I do think that if the ADQ does win the most seats, an ADQ/PLQ formal coalition wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Mostly because Dumont doesn't have the talent to make a full Cabinet himself but also because he could probably find common ground with Charest on a wide range of issues.

So will it be Peterson/Rae deux? Peut-être....

Mid-Week Musings

1. The NDP have a well produced ad up on their site which they are asking donations for to air. ABCer picks up the many obvious contradictions in their plea to air it.



2. Martha Hall Findlay has been appointed in Willowdale. I'm not principally opposed to appointments (of qualified people), but it seems to me like Martha could have won the nomination herself.


3. Bill Blaikie has announced he's calling it quits. His riding has been strongly NDP in the past but it just might be in play now. It kind of sucks for the NDP to lose Bill Blaikie while Pat Martin stays around.


4. Closer to home, Anne McLellan's old riding, Edmonton Centre will be having their nomination meeting next week. Running for that one are Nicole Martel, Don Padgett, and Jim Wachowich. The other hotly contested one is Edmonton Strathcona which now appears to be between Toeffal Chowdry and Claudette Roy (who would make a very strong candidate given her background). Apologies to the prospective candidates for butchering the spelling of at least half of those names, I'm sure.


5. Looks like those out West will need to scour US sites on the net for early election results again next time, as the Supreme Court upholds the publication ban.


6. Ed Stelmach has already flip-flopped on his hypothetical support of the new equalization formula. Best line of the article?

[PC spokesperson Tom] Olsen said he wasn't "sure what [Finance] Minister Oberg was talking about."

7. People are still all a tizzy over Mario Dumont's debate stunt. Apparently 1.7 million people watched the debate which, considering Quebec's population, is quite remarkable.

Le Debat

Random comments as I half pay attention to the Quebec debate (Fuddle Duddle's got the french live blog going too)...

6:12 pm: I just log on to the CPAC website now as Charest says "you need to elect the best team, I have the best team". I guess the fact that none of his candidates have been busted for genocide denial or racist comments does put him in first.

Health Care

6:14 pm: Dumont promises more private health care.

6:16 pm: Boisclair says that "Charest does not deserve a second chance". I'm not sure if Andre Boisclair is really the person who should be saying that people don't deserve second chances...

6:23 pm: Boisclair says that all Quebecers should have access to drugs. I'm sure Andre knows a guy who can help ensure that...

6:25 pm: Dumont attacks Boisclair for what "his government" did when the PQ were in power. I don't think Andre Boisclair can be held responsible for what the PQ did considering he was stoned most of the time.

Environment

6:33 pm: We all love the environment blah blah blah...this is gonna be a dull round.

6:39 pm: Ding Ding Ding! Boisclair becomes the first candidate to take a shot at Alberta during the debate, lamenting how Quebecers' tax dollars are funding the oil sands. I know! I just hate how Quebec tax dollars keep getting sent to Alberta.

6:48 pm: Let me just say that it's nice to watch a debate where we won't have to listen to hours of post-game analysis about how good everyone's French was.

Economy

6:55 pm: I'm not sure if you can look "Prime Ministerial" in a provincial debate, or even if that's a good thing, but Charest seems to be cool and in control of this one. Dumont and Boisclair also keep going after each other like rabid squirrels whenever they get the 1 on 1 debates against each other which, one imagines, also serves Charest well.

6:59 pm: Jack Layton Andre Boisclair complains about government money going to the banks and insurance companies.

7:03 pm: Dumont produces a document related to the overpass collapse...I'm not really sure what the brouhaha is all about so I guess we'll need to wait until the post game show to see what it's all about.

7:08 pm: Boisclair asks Dumont "what is the room to manoeuvre?" repeatedly. Even the translator gets fired up over it! It looks to me like Boisclair caught Dumont not knowing his facts. WHAM! BAM! You know it's bad when Andre Boisclair makes you look inexperienced and not ready to govern.

Social Programs

7:13 pm: Jean Charest takes credit for increasing the Quebec birth rate. Who does this guy think he is? Pierre Trudeau?

7:27 pm: Charest: "Mr. Dumont, why are you saying the opposite of the truth?". Charest goes on to absolutely own Dumont on the topic of school boards.

Quebec's Political Future (Let's get ready to rummmmble!)

7:32 pm: Boisclair says that Charest accepted Trudeau's constitution. Huh? Charest was, like, 24 then. (hat tip to Antonio on that one)

7:35 pm: Boisclair doesn't answer what his "Plan B" is if a referendum fails. Dumont doesn't answer what constitutional powers he wants. They go back and forth on this for about three minutes.

7:40 pm: Boisclair attacks Charest for not demanding enough from Ottawa. Charest then lists everything he's squeezed out of Martin and Harper over the last four years.

7:43 pm: Boisclair compares the fiscal imbalance to giving a blood bank to a vampire. I'm not really sure how the metaphor works but I'm glad he didn't say "giving crack to an addict".

7:47 pm: Dumont says that the Counsel of Federation is a playground for Charest to go to Niagara Falls, Edmonton, and St. John's. Believe me - I live in Edmonton - and no one would consider a trip to Edmonton as a junket or perk.


So, all in all, I'd say Charest did what he had to do - he looked the most like a leader out there. Dumont really fizzled in my opinion. Of course, I'm sure people in Quebec may get a completely different impression from it so it'll be interesting to see tomorrow's media spin.


UPDATE: It's a small sample, but the overnight polls seem to have Dumont taking the debate. Go figure. (H/T Nottawa)

Monday News Roundup

Daveberta has the run down on the new legislative session in Edmonton and the performance of Mr. Ed thus far. Speaking of which, Stelmach says he's not ready to pick a fight with Ottawa over the new equalization scheme but I'm guessing Danny Williams won't be quite so nice.


There weren't many leaks for the first Harper budget but it looks like secrecy may not prevail this year. The Globe has some speculation here:

The finance minister's “fix” [for the fiscal imbalance] is expected to include at least $3.5-billion extra for the provinces: about $1-billion more in annual equalization payments, $1-billion in annual transfers for post-secondary education, an already announced $1.5-billion fund to tackle climate change, and possibly more for other infrastructure projects.

Even though I tend to agree with Dion that the fiscal imbalance is the creation of provincial finance ministers with over active imaginations, it's hard to argue against money for education, the environment, and infrastructure. All the more reason I can't see the government falling on this budget. Still...I did find this cartoon pretty funny:





In Quebec, Mario Dumont is upset over the "witch hunt" being waged against ADQ candidates. I know! You find one or two candidates who worry that "the ethnics will swamp us" and complain that we "let them wear turbans" and suddenly everyone is on trial...


Out West, it appears the federal Tories are having problems of their own with a BC candidate who exaggerated his resume. As someone whose current resume has "2006 Time Person of the Year" under his accomplishments, I can sympathize with Mr. Pandher.

Gaffes All Around

I generally tend to think that "Boisclair under fire for candidate's genocide remarks" is not a headline you want in the midst of a campaign. The actual story isn't quite as bad as the headline makes it sound but still...eek!

This is certainly turning into a fun election to follow. If you like politics, it's hard not to keep your eye on the ever changing three horse race in Quebec.

Only in Quebec...

The leader of the most (only?) federalist party in the province states the obvious that Quebec could be divisible following a "oui" vote.

And everyone considers it a gaffe.

Welcome to the weird world of Quebec politics...

ça commence

Quebecers will go to the polls March 26th, a week after the federal budget.

It's hard to tell how this one turns out, but I'll predict a Charest minority government.