Monday, March 17, 2008

Tories are a Sham, Grits hope to Rock

(that was the best of the comments section...although a strong showing by the Greens will certainly prompt an edit)

8:00 pm: Eight o'clock and the polls are now clos...what's that? Apparently, there is a concern that thousands of Vancouver Quadrans will log onto the net to see if Martha did or did not win, and will alter their vote accordingly. So, we've got - staggered voting!

Which means no results until 10 eastern....grrr....

So, log back on then. For now, based on exit polls and complicated statistical demographic projections, the Calgary Grit decision desk is ready to project that Bob Rae has been elected in Toronto Centre.

10:05 pm: With 3% of the polls reporting in Toronto Centre, Rae is running away with 59%. In second place are...the Greens! I kind of saw this one coming - walking down the streets today after work, there the green supporters were out in force...you could see their colours everywhere. Martha's up comfortably in Willowdale, while the Conservatives are solidly in front in Saskatchewan.

10:22 pm: Tracking against 2006 numbers, there's been about a 7-10% shift from Liberal to Conservative vote in Saskatchewan. Rae is up 6% on Bill Graham's totals, with a huge drop in NDP vote (to the Greens?). Martha has also increased the previous Liberal total and, once again, the NDP are down.

10:30 pm: Quadra is starting to roll in. And John Turner has a vote! Woo-hoo! Also, I think it bears mentioning that the Saskatchewan riding is very big geographically and things could shift if the aboriginal polls are the late ones coming in...but you've got to figure it's a CPC pickup. Oh, and the Greens are still second in Toronto Centre.

10:34 pm: I'm watching Newsnet now. Tim Powers says Martha isn't going to reach the 55% the Liberals got there last time...well, the latest numbers have her at 59%, compared to the 52% Peterson got last time. But, most baffling is the fact that Scott Reid still gets invited out to these panel shows...I mean, seriously?

10:39 pm: John Turner is up to 3 votes now. btw, the neorhino party has a very complex, if somewhat confusing, website.

For those wondering about turn-out, it's hard to tell since the smaller polls report first. But, at first glance, the turn-out is going to be abysmally bad, which is to be expected in a byelection.

10:49 pm: Interesting races:
-Quadra is neck and neck between Liberals and Tories right now for first (Libs up by 20 votes).
-The Greens and NDP are neck and neck everywhere except Saskatchewan.
-The Rhinos are beating Hellyer's Action Party by a 3 to 1 margin (6 votes to 2) in Quadra.
-Martha and Bob are fairly close to each other right now (Martha up by 0.7%), for bragging rights.

11:34 pm: Saskatchewan is looking like a blow-out...Libs might be able to blame it on Orchard but it's still an undeniably bad result. Joyce Murray is starting to pull away in Quadra, but this one will still be a drop in support from the last election.

You hate to take messages out of byelections because they're fairly meaningless when you get down to it, but seeing the Toronto blow-outs coupled with the problems out West, it just shows why the Liberal Party needs to build itself up in Western Canada.

So all in all, assuming they hold Quadra, not a great night for the Liberals (or the NDP for that mater), but far from disastrous and certainly not as damaging as Outremont. They will get three very strong MPs into the House and the end result 3 out of 4 is what most people were predicting.

UPDATE: The Liberals take Quadra by 110 votes. Eek! This from one of the few Western ridings that they held through the 80s. Full results here.

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109 Comments:

  • Tories will pick up the Northern Saskatchewan seat with a decent margin over the second place finisher.

    Liberals will win the other three although a four party split in Quadra will have the Liberals winning it in a very close one. There is a slight chance the Liberals go down here.

    By Anonymous andrew, at 9:39 PM  

  • The Rhinos are running a candidate by the name of John Turner in Quadra.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:45 PM  

  • Elections Canada sez...

    40/182 polls in and it's looking good - so far - for the Tories in the SK riding...

    Bob & Martha winning big.

    Zip from VQ so far.

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:08 PM  

  • Thus far: Look like the Liberals are going to keep Toronto Centre/Willowdale, will the Tories might pick up Northern Sak.

    But its still early...

    By Anonymous Babbler, at 10:09 PM  

  • .. and the Green is in 2nd in TorCentre so far. Happy St Paddy's Day!

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:11 PM  

  • CBC called it for Toronto/Willowdale.

    By Anonymous Babbler, at 10:20 PM  

  • Story here
    Libs will have lost the only close race.

    Cons win the only real race.

    Libs lose at least 25% of the ridings in this bye.

    Not good for the Libs.

    By Anonymous dr. johnson, at 10:24 PM  

  • The other story tonight:

    Liberals celebrating with glee,

    that they maintained there sure winners.

    That in an of itself is a foreboding sign for the party.

    By Anonymous dr. johnson, at 10:26 PM  

  • Depending on the results of Vancouver Quadra, everybody has something good to take home, except the NDP.

    The Liberals can point to their convincing wins for Rae and Findlay and trumped the strong talent they're bringing to the bench.

    The Conservatives can trumpet their pickup in northern Saskatchewan (and no blaming the NDP for splitting the vote, either. The NDP didn't clear the margin between the Liberal and Conservative candidates).

    The Greens can trumpet pulling a respectable 14% of the vote in Toronto Centre and decent amounts of support elsewhere, and they have the distinction of topping the Conservatives once, and the NDP twice (Willowdale)

    By Blogger James Bow, at 10:27 PM  

  • 1 poll in from VQ, Libs up by 3 votes (again, don't get too excited - only 1 poll in, and it's 34 to 31 ....)

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:28 PM  

  • Dear god,

    the cons have made huge gains in Quadra it looks like.

    I'm freaking out!

    By Anonymous panicked in vancouver, at 10:30 PM  

  • It's nice to see John Turner back in politics, running for the Rhinos in Vancouver Quadra.

    By Blogger James Bow, at 10:32 PM  

  • seems like this day is going to end up the worst for the NDP. They have the potential (likelihood?) of finishing behind the Greens in at least half of the ridings (maybe even 3 of 4).

    Certainly a bad trend for Layton moving forward.

    By Blogger Noah, at 10:32 PM  

  • Cons are up 11.7 percent from '06 in the only close riding.

    Dion's head must roll.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:34 PM  

  • Looks like the Conservatives are running away with it in the Saskatchewan riding. The CBC will be calling the seat some time tomorrow morning.

    I'm surprised it's that close in Quadra: 38% Liberals
    35% Conservatives

    Hey Andrew, did you have some internals?

    By Anonymous frances, at 10:35 PM  

  • Heh. The Rhinos did *exactly* the same thing back in '88 in Van-Quadra - where the "other" John Turner was running at the time! I remember all the Lib signs had a big green "N" middle initial on 'em...

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:35 PM  

  • The Conservatives are in _fourth_ place in Toronto Centre. That's got to sting a little.

    As I said, Vancouver Quadra is going to be the story, here, as the Saskatchewan race was never really a safe seat for the Liberals, and the whole Orchard affair allowed Dion to downplay expectations. A Conservative victory in Quadra, however, would be quite the upset, and among other things, two potential candidates for Dion's job have just been elected here today.

    By Blogger James Bow, at 10:36 PM  

  • Greens ahead of the NDP in Quadra. That's 3 out of 4 for the Green Party. If the media doesn't find much of a story in going for Dion, Layton might be a good alternative.

    By Blogger James Bow, at 10:38 PM  

  • My people said Quadra will be very close tonight.

    Needless to say we were not to happy to learn that.

    By Anonymous in the know, at 10:39 PM  

  • VQ could very well be the story, James, especially if the CPC wins, but this may be a case where "close but no cigar" is good enough for the Tories, relatively speaking, given the margin there last time.

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:40 PM  

  • More than half the polls counted in Sask
    Conservatives 45%
    Liberals 35%


    Like I predicted, a decent spread over the second place finisher. This one's over even if the CBC only calls it at 3 A.M.

    Sorry Frances, I didn't actually see any internals but I won't disclose my source.

    By Anonymous andrew, at 10:42 PM  

  • And as SOON as I typed the last one, the Tories jumped ahead in VQ (sez Elections Canada), and the Libs are creeping closer in SK...

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:42 PM  

  • Quadra: Ten more polls reporting and Cons take a lead and its expanding.

    We're f###'d.

    By Anonymous panicked in vancouver, at 10:42 PM  

  • Of course, the 2 seats that the Grits have won going away have leadership contenders in 'em.

    Too bad Dion didn't have 170 opponents in the leadership race - he'd be on his way to a majority ;)

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 10:44 PM  

  • Joan Beatty is running second because her campaign was managed by an individual from outside the riding and she is a weak candidate. Dion needs to get rid of every single person connected to this campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:45 PM  

  • panicked--

    Just hang on....those numbers could be coming from polls in deepest Point Grey.....

    Mr. Bow makes a good point about Green strength in VanQuad however....In fact they split the vote enough to elect Mr. Gordon (LiberalInNameOnly) Campbell in the last provincial election.

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 10:45 PM  

  • On to Quadra.



    It's all tied up at 37 between the Cons and the Libs.

    Remember where you heard it first folks.

    By Anonymous andrew, at 10:46 PM  

  • If it stays this close in Quadra,

    win or lose, the Libs will have dropped about

    - TWENTY POINTS -

    from the '06 election.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:47 PM  

  • If the Libs lose Quadra, that'll definitely be the story. I think if they take 3 of 4, they'll be happy...even if the vote drops in Quadra, their vote totals have gone up in Toronto.

    But, yeah, for Layton, tonight isn't nearly as sweet as the fall by elections were. I know it's a byelection so you should never read anything into it, but we all know the media will.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:47 PM  

  • real race in Quadra! Tory lead with 20 polls reporting! Would be useful to know where in the riding those polls are...

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 10:48 PM  

  • Dropping more than five points in a stronghold is bad news.

    Dropping 10 is horrifying.

    Dropping 20 is a politically nuclear meltdown.

    For Dion, I'd prescribe about 20 cc's of Amitriptyline, and and recommend close patient supervision.

    He shouldn't be left alone tonight.

    By Anonymous dr. johnson, at 10:52 PM  

  • Wow, looks like Quadra's going to be the close one. That's a surprise!

    By Blogger SouthernOntarioan, at 10:52 PM  

  • Love the spin.

    Taking Toronto ridings (each with a party leader and the Cons not even putting up a fight),

    is a VICTORY!!!

    By Anonymous markus, at 10:54 PM  

  • Where is who dropping 20 points?

    By Anonymous me, ok?, at 10:54 PM  

  • Once again Dion's political genius coming through:

    Hand picks in Sask: Drops 12 points.

    Flog "Cadscam" to death where its purportedly causing the CPC to lose traction particularly in the "Cadscam" heartland-BC,

    and they drop twenty.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:59 PM  

  • Libs took Quadra in '06 by a twenty point margin.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:00 PM  

  • liberals are starting to pull away in Vancouver but seem to have lost for sure in Saskatchewan.

    I love how Dion is already emphasizing the Liberal Team versus Stephen Harper the individual. This should be a major theme for the party moving forward.

    By Blogger Noah, at 11:02 PM  

  • What the hell is going on in Vancouver-Quadra? That seat is as Liberal as...well, just about anything.

    Seriously, I thought Willowdale would be closer than that one. Man.

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 11:05 PM  

  • VanQuad candidate ran as a 'StealthCon'....wouldn't speak to press, went to very few all-candidate meetings.

    At the very end plastered 'Tackling Crime' stickers on acres and acres of massive lawn signs.

    It was a pure, packaged, papblum bubble-campaign run from above.....and it appears to have worked.

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 11:05 PM  

  • A 180 vote spread with only one third of the polls reporting and here its

    "the libs are running away with it".

    heh

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:07 PM  

  • "it appears to have worked"

    here it comes: the Conservatives cheated.

    Golden I tell ya.

    By Anonymous laughing in quadra, at 11:10 PM  

  • Okay, it appears to have been a few fluke polls causing the apparent "upset" in Quadra.

    I'm actually relieved. I mean, I'm no Liberal, but if the Tories get a foothold in urban Vancouver, well...

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 11:12 PM  

  • In the two close races (though Quadra wasn't supposed to be close),

    it looks like the Conservatives gained about 16-18% in each.

    If Dion uses this by-election as some sort of "boost" he's nuttier than I thought.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:14 PM  

  • This is not, I repeat not a good night for Dion. It does look like the Liberals will win a cliff-hanger in Vancouver-Quadra.

    The last set of bye-elections told us that there were no longer any safe seats in Montreal for the Liberals. This round has told us that there are no safe Liberal seats in Vancouver.

    Circle the wagons around the GTA: Toronto is the last safe haven for the Liberal party under the dionistas.

    I think the Stephane Dion has some s'plaining to do.

    By Anonymous blue liberal, at 11:15 PM  

  • I really wish they'd stop having party hacks on the news programs to spin in real-time; it takes time to come up with good spin, so instead we get the Tories acting surprised to win Churchill, the Liberals emphasizing boosts in Toronto, the NDP ignoring any questions at all about their performance, etc. Have some non-partisan commentators instead.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 11:17 PM  

  • Hang onto your hats.

    The UBC polling stations usually come in the latest,

    and the Con candidate (a UBC professor) is supposed to have made big inroads with the "campus vote".

    I notices the gap again starting to tighten.

    Quadra isn't over yet.

    By Anonymous in the know, at 11:19 PM  

  • Hey, don't be knocking the "real" John Turner there, bub. ;)

    By Blogger Red Tory, at 11:20 PM  

  • blue liberal read my mind.

    We have fortress Toronto.

    Do we have anything else left?????

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:21 PM  

  • We have fortress Toronto.

    Do we have anything else left?????


    Is there anything else worth having?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:22 PM  

  • Oh, there just following the US spin all the time model. I miss non-partisan pundits as well, just from a news model.

    There was a reason they called that first show in this model "crossfire" (note they didn't call it "neutral analysis"

    whatever sells, i guess.

    I think there ought to be some lessons in quadra, but I still think a win's a win when you're splitting votes with 4 competitive blocks in a by-election. a by-election tells you something but it is NOT a general election vote so some skewing is bound to happen.

    The biggest lesson is to realize that there is a stealth election for every public election now. It's what the repubs in the US mastered under Bush, remember the "meetings with the Amish in Ohio" during the 2004 campaign. I think the conservatives skirted public forums, but got there vote to the polls. Liberals need to recognize that for what it is and adjust strategy and campaign accordingly.

    . I think the conservatives should feel good about there win in Sask, but they can't be feeling that good about Toronto.

    By Blogger Joseph, at 11:24 PM  

  • The early polls for Quadra must have been from the southern edge of the riding.

    But if UBC isn't in session during the next election, Quadra could potentially Conservative. I've heard reports the Liberals did little there in terms of flyer distribution this time around. Liberals need to work on the GOTV machine or the national poll numbers could be too optimistic in terms of seat count.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 11:27 PM  

  • Joseph, in case you're not from the centre of the universe - the Toronto ridings they are losing in are not the ones they need for a majority. They are downtown ridings, which the Tories will never win in.

    The 905 suburbs where Mike Harris won big are another story altogether (granted Harris did win in Willowdale).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:29 PM  

  • in the know--

    Good point about late UBC polls....

    Not so sure support for the StealthCon from out there will come from students for two reasons....

    One - she teaches Commercial Law which does not have a big UGrad profile

    Two - she got raked by Student Paper for what she had to say about enviro issues.

    However, StealthCon good get big numbers from folks who live in CondoTown that now rings Campus as well as MansionLand on the UEL.

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 11:29 PM  

  • Liberals should do better in Sask next time cuz the fact that it was a byelection meant turnout was low, and the aboriginal vote stayed home while the white farmers were sure to come out. In a federal election that won't be as much of a problem.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 11:31 PM  

  • Also, in case there are any U of T folks on here - did anybody else recognize Rhini Gosh from the student government as the NDP candidate (trailing the Greens) in Willowdale. Serves her right (SAC is such a terrible government).

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 11:32 PM  

  • Not from Toronto . . . but I do understand the demographics. My only point is this doesn't show any gain, which still tells you a bit about how they are looking there overall.

    And as you said, they have sometimes done well there.

    By Blogger Joseph, at 11:33 PM  

  • gazetteer: people in lower end condos, apts, and townhouses don't vote.

    I ran in the Alberta provincial election and the one thing that stood out were the 15% turnouts in polls with those demographics.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 11:35 PM  

  • in the know - even if the UBC prof made inroads there, campus polls are usually overwhelming lefty, aren't they? I can only imagine that's even more so the case in BC.

    Maybe the CPC beat the Liberals on those polls because of a strong NDP/Green vote, but I have a hard time seeing the Conservatives picking up big majorities among student polls anywhere.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:38 PM  

  • Okay, Josh Gould points out over at Ben's place that the issue in Quadra isn't that the Tories have gained, since they're not actually doing a whole lot better than they did last time. The issue is that the Liberals have bled votes to the Greens. So we don't have to worry about urban Vancouver having suddenly turned conservative, at least.

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 11:40 PM  

  • IB--

    Lower end condos?

    Have you been out here recently?

    We're talking $700-$1000/sq ft condos....and many of these people buy for the added bonus of skipping municipal taxes.....

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 11:42 PM  

  • Well, there might still be cause to worry... thanks to FPTP!

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 11:43 PM  

  • As the majority of the polls come in it looks like in both the Sask and Quadra,

    the Liberals are down 16 points each from the last election.

    This is very worrisome for a few reasons.

    One: it shows the drop wasn't a fluke, in fact it was nearly identical.

    Two: it shows "Cadscam", which was supposed to have reverberated closer to the epicenter, was a complete bust.

    Three: the drop was significant.

    Four: sitting governments are generally LOSE ground in mid term by elections.

    Five: the trend from the Quebec by-elections continues.

    Six: Toronto, where two major party leaders were running, and where the Conservatives all but abandoned the race, frankly do nothing to mitigate the above five.

    We my friends, should be very wary of attempting to make this into some sort of partial victory for our party. It was a bad day for us, and we need to get together to see how we can stop the bleeding.

    Sorry for the frankness, but it seemed to be in order.

    By Anonymous John Saul, at 11:46 PM  

  • Apologies - condo comment should have been addressed to Brian Bell....

    ____

    CGrit-- students lefty yes, but there has been a huge demographic shift out here as the University 'develops' its endowment lands as 'University Town'.

    .
    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 11:46 PM  

  • It’s 8:40 in Vancouver. Turnout is only 20%

    AS expected, the Liberals won Ontario. The CPC is nowhere despite its pitch to ethnic conservatives.. Thanks to harper for criticizing McGuinty.

    Churchill lost by a large margin. Thanks to dion for flaunting Liberal tradition. Doesn’t mean that David Orchard would have won. But, dion will get the credit for this.

    In Quadra, Liberals ahead by 5% with 165/237. Serious analysis needed by the Liberals. Did core Liberal voters turn up? Did the red tories who voted Liberal in the last two elections switch back? Did they abstain?

    Still a stalemate in Ottawa

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:49 PM  

  • The bad news for the Liberals here is that if this was a general election and Quadra and a primarily aboriginal riding were all the results we had, one would have to predict a Conservative majority in the House. For the Tories to be just 5 pts behind in a university riding adjacent to Vancouver downtown suggests they went on the rampage through the country's suburbia.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 11:49 PM  

  • So a few people voted Green and NDP because it was a byelection in Vancouver. Big deal - they'll come back to the Liberals during the general campaign. And, remember, Stephen Owen was a long time incumbent, so you'd expect a natural drop off.

    The Sask riding is a weird one so I wouldn't read too much into it.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:56 PM  

  • To make matters worse I just got a call from a conservative friend who was gloating.

    He said it was "best case scenario" because Dion would have likely been a "goner" if we lost Quadra, but a skweaker means we lose ground but Dion stays at the helm.

    Conservatives are dastardly.

    By Anonymous John Saul, at 11:56 PM  

  • In Quadra, Liberals ahead by 5% with 165/237. Serious analysis needed by the Liberals. Did core Liberal voters turn up? Did the red tories who voted Liberal in the last two elections switch back? Did they abstain?

    They went Green. This should be obvious from the numbers.

    The bad news for the Liberals here is that if this was a general election and Quadra and a primarily aboriginal riding were all the results we had, one would have to predict a Conservative majority in the House. For the Tories to be just 5 pts behind in a university riding adjacent to Vancouver downtown suggests they went on the rampage through the country's suburbia.

    By-elections say almost nothing about how things will transpire in a general election. What's more, the results in Quadra do not show any kind of great shift to the CPC; at best, they are marginally ahead of where they were in 2006. Look up the numbers for yourself.

    For that matter, Quadra is hardly a university riding. UBC has no shortage of commuter students who, if they even live in the riding, are the demographic which is least likely to vote. If anything, Willowdale is a much better indication of how the CPC might fare in the "country's suburbia" - the answer, about the same as last time.

    The real story in Quadra is indeed a Green story. That's where the Liberals went, but since this is a by-election, we should take any conclusions that this means we'd see something similar in a general election with a grain of salt.

    As for Churchill River, well, it's been held by all three parties in the past 10 years, and with turnout of 25% combined with the controversy over Beatty's candidacy, it hardly means anything.

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 11:58 PM  

  • "Did the red tories who voted Liberal in the last two elections switch back?"

    What makes that hard to explain is the fact that the Liberal in Quadra is a blue grit.

    Tories didn't improve all that much. As someone else noted, it was the Greens who shot up, and at the Liberal expense.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 12:00 AM  

  • "it was the Greens who shot up, and at the Liberal expense."

    Which, of course, is why folks like this are already pushing a Green over Dipper meme.

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 12:06 AM  

  • the Liberals are down 16 points each from the last election.

    -10% in Desnethe.

    -12% in Quadra.

    That's not 16 points in either one.

    By Anonymous oy veh, at 12:18 AM  

  • I think the media will treat these by-elections as an affirmation of the status quo. The Liberals won the three safe seats, so Dion isn't going anytime soon. The Liberals lost the tight race in Saskatchewan, however, to the questions about Dion's leadership aren't going away, either.

    Layton's reputation is protected by placing higher than the Greens in two of the four ridings, and expectations for him weren't high in the first place, but placing behind the Greens in Willowdale and Toronto Centre (if that's indeed how it turns out; I see the race for second has tightened here) suggets a weakness in the party and an inability to capitalize on the malaise that voters have for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

    The Greens are the story of the night, especially if they can take second place in Toronto Centre. They've substantially increased their take in at least three of the ridings. As others have noted, the Conservatives didn't gain much in Vancouver Quadra, the Greens took Liberal support instead. If they had placed ahead of the NDP in 3 of these 4 by-elections, they could start making the case that they're the real third-party in this country.

    Well, we'll see what the media has to say tomorrow.

    By Blogger James Bow, at 12:19 AM  

  • The libs won the Sask riding last election by 60 sum votes (less than one percent,

    they're losing by over 16 percentage points.

    That's a 16 point drop.

    The libs won Quadra with almost a 21 point spread, and are winning with just over four,

    which is also a 16 point drop.

    It's called math.

    Not the fancy shmancy trigonometry stuff either,

    just adding and subtracting.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:27 AM  

  • Suggesting that Joyce Murray will be a strong MP is quite the stretch. She was an abysmal MLA and will likely fare no better as an MP.

    She'll be nothing more than another token Liberal vote... or abstention, rather.

    By Blogger BR, at 12:31 AM  

  • Shorter Joyce Murray 'Victory' speech.....'It's the Environment, Me Stupid!'

    (btw StealthCon only down by 4% with 36 polls left.....if they're in PointGrey and/or Kerrisdale?????)

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 12:35 AM  

  • One less seat to leave vacant on the next major vote.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:37 AM  

  • Why would anybody blame the loss of DMCR on Orchard when it is clearly the fault of Dion and Goodale? Why was an invidual from Ottawa brought into a Northern Sask riding as the campaign manager?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:37 AM  

  • The Lib spread in Quadra was well over four, it's now down to 3.9.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:39 AM  

  • From 4.2,

    to 3.9,

    to 3.5 spread

    after only five more ridings report?

    With 31 ridings remaining?

    this is gonna be close.

    By Anonymous in the know, at 12:56 AM  

  • Down to 3.2 spread.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:57 AM  

  • The libs won the Sask riding last election by 60 sum votes (less than one percent,

    they're losing by over 16 percentage points.

    That's a 16 point drop.


    In the spread.

    Not in the Liberal vote.

    The libs won Quadra with almost a 21 point spread, and are winning with just over four,

    which is also a 16 point drop.


    No, a 16 point change in the Liberal/Tory spread.

    It's called math.

    Not the fancy shmancy trigonometry stuff either,

    just adding and subtracting.


    Then calling it the wrong thing.

    You measured the spread.

    Not the Liberal vote. At this hour, it's down 10% in Churchill River, and 12% in Vancouver.

    By Anonymous oy veh, at 12:59 AM  

  • 3.1

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:59 AM  

  • The last few polls have gone overwhelmingly conservative.

    Did I or did I not predict this would happen?

    By Anonymous in the know, at 1:04 AM  

  • 3.0

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:05 AM  

  • Vancouver-Quadra isn't really a "safe" seat (in fact it's been conservative for 26 of the last 59 years). It's only in the last four years there's been a comfortable margin for the Liberals. During the 90s they won it because of vote-splitting on the Right.

    By Blogger Red Tory, at 1:08 AM  

  • Red--

    And now they're almost losing because of vote-splitting on the Green.....

    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 1:13 AM  

  • This might be the beginning of the end of King Ralph's rule in Saskatchewan. The Liberals are going nowhere here until he gets dethroned.

    By Anonymous Jack, at 1:25 AM  

  • Well the media decision has been made... 'it is a great day for the liberals', despite the fact that they lost a seat, and almost lost another they had held for 24 years - keeping two in which former leadership candidates went.

    As for Vancouver Quadra being Tory before 1984, so were a lot of Toronto ridings. The cleavages in Canadian politics are so different between then and now that it is impossible to make a realistic comparison.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:47 AM  

  • With all polls reporting now in Quadra it is
    10 155 Liberal
    10 004 Conservative

    Possible recount although I doubt that 151 votes would switch. Total votes cast: 28 165

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 1:50 AM  

  • I know someone had mentioned this much earlier, but it was almost extreme on how those last couple of ridings came in at Quadra. Literally, the gap closed like 500 votes in 2 polling stations.

    There was nothing like that all night, even though it was clear that some polling stations went in different directions.

    Can the polling station just hold their count until the end? Who makes that kind of decision.

    Not playing conspiracy here, honest question because it was such a sudden and large flux at the end. So it does beg the question did someone want to make a big splash by winning at the last minute by holding the strongest poll (by far) until the last minute, but instead coming up just a hair shy?

    I probably wouldn't have even thought it except for the "warning" here that it was going to happen that way (well, except for the coming up short part)

    By Blogger Joseph, at 1:53 AM  

  • Libs win Quadra by 151 votes. Less than 1%. That is really awful.

    And anyone who thinks things will get better in a national election should listen to Dion's speech at Rae's victory. I have heard "whole of Canada" instead of "all of Canada" once too many times.

    Once again, a pathetic night for Liberals outside the GTA.

    By Anonymous MississaugaJoan, at 1:53 AM  

  • joseph: It depends on the poll. I ran in the Alberta provincial election earlier this month and one poll looked like a rogue, with the Tory vote overwhelming. Turned out is was for a seniors home that the premier himself had visited just days before and which had a mobile poll sent into it on election day.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 2:02 AM  

  • Anything under a couple three hundred and you'd be stupid not to have a recount.

    By Anonymous Joe Calgary, at 2:05 AM  

  • thanks for the answer, Brian. It was something I had wondered before. Sounds like it depends on whoever is running the polling station when they report.

    I would presume most just turn in as tallied, but I guess there is some leeway if someone wants to take a little extra time for whatever reason.

    By Blogger Joseph, at 2:06 AM  

  • So....Brian....just were did all those late, late night Con votes come from? I mean that was a 5 point swing in the last 40 or so polls.....wow!

    Ms. Murray, must be pretty darned happy that Liz May was late coming to the aid of Green Candidate Dan Grice.


    .

    By Blogger Gazetteer, at 2:07 AM  

  • As a former candidate, if I'm an underdog I'd want my best polls to be reported first, not last, because I'd get more media coverage. If the Liberal had come from behind in Quadra to win by 151 votes on the last polls, the national papers likely would have said the race was still undecided at press time. That wouldn't be as good for the favourite because the headlines would be more likely to spin it as an underperformance for the party.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 2:21 AM  

  • Make no mistake about it. The Liberals are in real trouble in BC. North Vancouver, Richmond, Newton North Delta are all on the razor’s edge, Keith Martin will be in for a fight in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and West Vancouver is as good as gone. If the election was held this spring, I say the Liberals would loose 4 of the aforementioned 5. I think Martin would hold onto his seat. One problem is Dion’s English. It is terrible and well that does seem to be a problem in Toronto it certainly is here. It ties back into the whole Western alienation that helped fueled strong support for the Reform party here. Another problem is that it is a fiscally conservative city, with a very fiscally conservative regressive media. This is not a town of Red Tories. This is not Toronto. There is no Toronto Star. There is the Vancouver Sun and the Fraser Institute. Luckily for the Liberals it is also socially liberal city. By and large SSM played very well here and there is strong support for drug reform of all kinds. If the Liberals are serious about holding onto what they have in BC and perhaps even picking up a seat or two, they need to develop some policies that will appeal to libertarians. Right now the cupboard is more or less bare.

    By Blogger Koby, at 3:04 AM  

  • “The bad news for the Liberals here is that if this was a general election and Quadra and a primarily aboriginal riding were all the results we had, one would have to predict a Conservative majority in the House.”

    Don’t be silly! It wasn’t a GE. Quadra and Churchill weren’t the only ridings in play.

    “…they need to develop some policies that will appeal to libertarians. Right now the cupboard is more or less bare.”

    Korby has a valid point. Is the LPC losing the middle ground? That’s why I asked about the red tories in Quadra. It isn’t obvious that the rise in Green votes is from the red tories.

    Strategy making is complex, and there are several options. However, the fundamental problem is dion.

    He doesn’t build a green alliance with the Bloc and NDP. Instead, he thinks that he can take left votes. But, that means he vacates the middle ground.

    He is trying to build local alliances to make up for LPC weakness on the ground. But, he’s attracting the 2nd and 3rd tier politicians.

    I’ll say it again. Dion knows nothing about politics. He’s trying to do the logical. But, he doesn’t have the political acumen to pull it off.

    Let’s have no illusions. Bob Rae is capable and experienced. But, he doesn’t have star power. MHF is likeable, but she’s a lightweight. Where’s Gerard Kennedy?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 4:03 AM  

  • in the know - looks like you were right about those late Quadra polls. I'd be curious to see those UBC ones...

    BR - I thought the BC Liberals were the "good" Liberals? I'm surprised you're not a Joyce Murray fan :-)

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 8:26 AM  

  • Joyce Murray was an awful MLA, Owen on the other hand was one of the few truly progressive Liberal MPs in the House. It isn't any surprise that the Libs are bleeding in Quadra.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:43 AM  

  • FYI, there is a good reason why the last couple of polls can sometimes have a drastic impact. Usually the last polls to report are the advance polls and those often have a huge number of votes in them (ie: 1,000 votes in one advance poll is not unusual). It's quite possible that the Tories had more of their people voting in advance.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:08 AM  

  • "It's quite possible that the Tories had more of their people voting in advance."

    Lot's of conjectures. But, the LPC needs to get on the ground to find out what's going on. Don't brush this byelection aside.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:52 AM  

  • Let's see. The Liberals held all four seats before yesterday. They lost one (in Sask) to the Conservatives, and were within a hundred or so votes of losing Quadra to the CPC candidate ... in a safe riding.

    And today they are claiming a "great" victory, patting themselves on the back, and being "coy" about bringing down the government?

    What strange values (or lack of aspirations) these Liberals have. Up is down, black is white. Classic Liberal dogma (aka BS).

    By Blogger burpnrun, at 2:42 PM  

  • Parties usually tell their volunteers to vote in the advance polls so they can work all of election day on getting out the vote.

    So if the advance polls were counted last, that would suggest the Tories had significantly more GOTV volunteers.

    Anyway, they lost.

    By Blogger Brian Dell, at 3:48 PM  

  • Good evening,

    I am pleased, very pleased at last night's election results. It augurs very well for a strong conservative tide across our home and native land. One trend that is causing much mirth and merriment in the quarters I frequent is the advent of yet another vehicle of leftist cant in the political fray, the Green Party. We now have three leftist parties fighting for the same turf, four in Quebec with Chairman Duceppe.

    The Liberals used to have one foot on the left and one in the center but Stephane Dion has the party with both feet on the left, ensuring further crowding on the left of the spectum. Mr. Dion's political acumen is of course, legendary, and his political moves invariably are a cause of wide-eyed amazement.

    Elizabeth May often says such nasty and needless things about Mr. Harper. He should respond with equanimity and kindness. She came ever so close in helping elect a Conservative MP in Vancouver-Quadra yesterday and no doubt will be assisting in the election of many Conservative MP's in the upcoming election. Thank you Elizabeth, thank you Stephane. Keep fighting for that shrinking market share Jack, yours is the original brand and don't let people forget it.

    By Anonymous designated con troll, at 10:19 PM  

  • Koby said...
    Make no mistake about it. The Liberals are in real trouble in BC. North Vancouver, Richmond, Newton North Delta are all on the razor’s edge, Keith Martin will be in for a fight in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and West Vancouver is as good as gone. If the election was held this spring, I say the Liberals would loose 4 of the aforementioned 5. I think Martin would hold onto his seat. "One problem is Dion’s English". It is terrible and well that does seem to be a problem in Toronto it certainly is here. It ties back into the whole Western alienation that helped fueled strong support for the Reform party here.

    Couldn't have said it better
    This speaks more of the white anglo chauvinism in the West-thats what western alienation is all about the only other reason is immigration, the rest is all a smoke screen to make alienation more palatable- where parties that have leaders that speak french with heavy english accents(Martin, Harper) and very poor French(Layton)can win seats in Quebec. But Liberals would lose seats out west with Dion.

    Another problem is that it is a "fiscally conservative city, with a very fiscally conservative regressive media." This is not a town of Red Tories. This is not Toronto. There is no Toronto Star. "There is the Vancouver Sun and the Fraser Institute. "

    Very good point the Vancouver Sun is probably the most conservative, anti-liberal, anti-minority paper in all of Canada.


    Luckily for the Liberals it is also socially liberal city. By and large SSM played very well here and there is strong support for drug reform of all kinds. If the Liberals are serious about holding onto what they have in BC and perhaps even picking up a seat or two, they need to develop some policies that will appeal to libertarians. Right now the cupboard is more or less bare.

    Well don't count on anything. The greens are emerging as spoilers, that means more cons.....its the reform scenario all over again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:31 AM  

  • "Thank you Elizabeth, thank you Stephane."

    Thank You Stockwell. Thanks you Fortier. Thank You O'Conner. Thank You McKay. Thank You Van Loan. Thank You Oda. Thank You Baird. Thank You Prentice. Thank You Flaherty. Thank You Clement.

    Finally, the biggest thank you to Stephan.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:44 AM  

  • I agree that the team approach should be tried to compensate for Mr. Dion's leadership shortcomings.

    They need a name though.

    What about "TEAM TORONTO"?

    Just a thought.

    By Anonymous frances, at 1:21 PM  

  • http://www.hammertimegp.blogspot.com

    By Blogger HammertimeGP, at 2:51 PM  

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