Boisclair's Walk in the Snow

After watching party members line up against him, Andre Boisclair has rolled over and quit as PQ chef. Boisclair has been behind the eight ball, and on a powder keg, due to chronic problems over the past year and his leadership was on the line going into the last provincial election. After the PQ bit the dust in March, it was inevitable that their members would eventually smoke Boisclair out and drop him like a ton of bricks.

To be blunt, Andre Boisclair blows as PQ leader, and they will be better off without him. So the high hopes of the sovereignty movement will hand over the keys to their new white knight, Gilles Duceppe.

Bad news for the BQ and bad news for bloggers who lose the opportunity to slip cocaine euphemisms into their Andre Boisclair posts.

Leaders and Leadership

1. Sarkozy victorieux!


2. Andre Boisclair is drawing fire from within the PQ, and prominent sovereignist Yves Michaud has called Boisclair "childish". (no doubt this arrogant comment will rouse the distracted giant and lead to many attacks against Mr. Michaud from Quebec bloggers)


3. The provincial PCs held their annual convention in Edmonton this weekend. Usually it's hard to get media coverage of a policy convention but they succeeded in grabbing quite a few headlines, as far away as Calgary:

Tories express Anti-Calgary sentiment
Alberta divide appears to be growing

EDMONTON - A ripple of anti-Calgary sentiment seemed to permeate the Progressive Conservative convention Saturday in Edmonton, with samples coming in both noise and numbers.

Mayor Dave Bronconnier's political tactics were the target of rowdy party members, then Calgary candidate Joe Lougheed -- son of former premier Peter Lougheed -- was rejected in his run for Tory party president against Edmonton-area candidate Marg Mrazek.

But the most palpable moment came when a crowd of more than 1,000 Tories gave Premier Ed Stelmach a raucous 40-second standing ovation, after he attacked Bronconnier -- who wasn't in attendance -- over the mayor's claims a lack of provincial dollars are delaying LRT expansion.

They were also quick to put Stelmach's keynote speech up on Youtube. Since, as a Liberal, I feel it's in my party's best interest to have as many Albertans as possible hear Ed Stelmach speak, I present the clips for everyone here to peruse.

(clip 1, clip 2)

The morning after the morning after

Jean Charest: It could have been worse for him but the man is certainly vulnerable, which means there will be intense pressure from within his own party to resign or, at the very least, rebrand. Minority governments are dicey in even the most stable political places and Quebec politics is the antithesis of stability so it’s really hard to predict how he’ll fare or if the PLQ can afford a leadership race before the next election. Because of that, I’ll predict he stays around until the next vote.

Andre Boisclair: The PQ will be having a leadership review vote this June. Given that the party has been known to knife even their most successful leaders, I can’t for the life of me imagine Boisclair surviving the vote. The timing of the vote certainly opens the door for Duceppe to jump provincially should the PQ dump Boisclair but I can’t really see why anyone would want to lead the PQ these days and, we should remember, he already turned the job down once under far better circumstances. Regardless of who their leader is, the PQ has a real identity crisis on their hands now and might not even promise a referendum in their next campaign platform.

Mario Dumont: Usually in minority governments, the Premier is the man under the microscope but I think it’s fair to say all eyes will be on Mario Dumont. He’s going to have to borrow a few muzzles from his buddy Steve to keep the wing nuts who were elected in check. He’ll also have to show that his party is credible and ready to govern. If he performs well as opposition leader, the next election is his to lose…but on the flip side, if he stumbles, the ADQ could fall back to fringe status next time since he doesn’t have the entrenched voter loyalty the other two parties command. It will be very interesting to see how much pressure he puts on Charest, in particular with respect to demanding more “autonomy”.

The Bloc Quebecois: Is in serious trouble next election. I’ll go into this a bit more as we lead up to the election since it’s not directly tied to the provincial vote but, for now, is there anyone out there who can name one issue they have to attract voters? Because I don't think an anti-scab law is going to exactly capture the imagination of the Quebecois.

Stephen Harper: I don’t necessarily buy the argument that what happens provincially translates federally…if anything provincial governments usually counter their federal counterparts. However, what the strength of the ADQ has shown is that Harper certainly has the potential to gain votes in Quebec. It shows there are Quebecers willing to vote for a party with conservative values under the right circumstances. Now, no one really knows how much of the vote was a protest vote, how much was anti-Montreal, how much was about reasonable accommodation, how much was about Dumont’s personal popularity, and how much was about Charest and Boiclair being universally hated. But the potential is there for a Quebec breakthrough.

That said, outside of Quebec, I don’t see this as a great victory for Harper. The man burned through a wad lot of political capital (and monetary capital too) to get Jean Charest re-elected and the end result was anything but a resounding victory for Harper’s ally.

Great Moments in Spin

Mr. Boisclair said he plans to lead the party into the next election, but admitted he had misread the electorate during the campaign.

Another referendum on sovereignty “was not, apparently, a priority,” he told the media.

However, he said the overall voting trends supported the PQ's position within Quebec. Two-thirds of seats were given to people who do not accept the status quo, he said.

Couldn't the Green Party claim victory on those same grounds?

Neck and Neck and Neck

Wow.

Liberals 33%
PQ 30%
ADQ 30%

First of all, I guess I was wrong, wrong, wrong about Tuesday's debate. To me, it looked like Charest had won and Dumont was nothing more than a hyperactive squirrel (think Jack Layton in the 2004 debates) but it seems Quebecers saw it differently or, at the very least, the overpass stunt paid some dividends.

So this leaves the election outcome a complete crapshot. Any of the three parties could conceivably form what will almost certainly be Quebec's first minority government in over a century.

And that is what makes today's proclamation by Andre Boisclair so interesting:

The Parti Québécois would want to hold a referendum on sovereignty even if it forms only a minority government, leader André Boisclair said Friday.

Obviously, Boisclair would never get a referendum law passed in a minority government so he's just blowing smoke up the electorate's ass. But if he maintains that his raison d'être of forming government is to hold another referendum, it becomes hard to see how Mario Dumont could justify proping up a Boisclair government. If you don't believe in the first priority of the government, how can you say you have confidence in them? Especially after the two bickered to no end on Tuesday and have very little common ground anywhere in their platforms.

What I'm getting at is, let's suppose, the numbers above hold and we get a seat breakdown similar to what Hill & Knowlton predicts (two bad assumptions to make, but, whatever):

PQ 49
PLQ 43
ADQ 33

In such a situation, it seems to me that Jean Charest could make a very strong case to stay as Premier, governing with ADQ support. He'd have won the popular vote and could promise a more stable government than Boisclair.

I'm not sure if we'd see a formal coalition, but I do think that if the ADQ does win the most seats, an ADQ/PLQ formal coalition wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. Mostly because Dumont doesn't have the talent to make a full Cabinet himself but also because he could probably find common ground with Charest on a wide range of issues.

So will it be Peterson/Rae deux? Peut-être....

Le Debat

Random comments as I half pay attention to the Quebec debate (Fuddle Duddle's got the french live blog going too)...

6:12 pm: I just log on to the CPAC website now as Charest says "you need to elect the best team, I have the best team". I guess the fact that none of his candidates have been busted for genocide denial or racist comments does put him in first.

Health Care

6:14 pm: Dumont promises more private health care.

6:16 pm: Boisclair says that "Charest does not deserve a second chance". I'm not sure if Andre Boisclair is really the person who should be saying that people don't deserve second chances...

6:23 pm: Boisclair says that all Quebecers should have access to drugs. I'm sure Andre knows a guy who can help ensure that...

6:25 pm: Dumont attacks Boisclair for what "his government" did when the PQ were in power. I don't think Andre Boisclair can be held responsible for what the PQ did considering he was stoned most of the time.

Environment

6:33 pm: We all love the environment blah blah blah...this is gonna be a dull round.

6:39 pm: Ding Ding Ding! Boisclair becomes the first candidate to take a shot at Alberta during the debate, lamenting how Quebecers' tax dollars are funding the oil sands. I know! I just hate how Quebec tax dollars keep getting sent to Alberta.

6:48 pm: Let me just say that it's nice to watch a debate where we won't have to listen to hours of post-game analysis about how good everyone's French was.

Economy

6:55 pm: I'm not sure if you can look "Prime Ministerial" in a provincial debate, or even if that's a good thing, but Charest seems to be cool and in control of this one. Dumont and Boisclair also keep going after each other like rabid squirrels whenever they get the 1 on 1 debates against each other which, one imagines, also serves Charest well.

6:59 pm: Jack Layton Andre Boisclair complains about government money going to the banks and insurance companies.

7:03 pm: Dumont produces a document related to the overpass collapse...I'm not really sure what the brouhaha is all about so I guess we'll need to wait until the post game show to see what it's all about.

7:08 pm: Boisclair asks Dumont "what is the room to manoeuvre?" repeatedly. Even the translator gets fired up over it! It looks to me like Boisclair caught Dumont not knowing his facts. WHAM! BAM! You know it's bad when Andre Boisclair makes you look inexperienced and not ready to govern.

Social Programs

7:13 pm: Jean Charest takes credit for increasing the Quebec birth rate. Who does this guy think he is? Pierre Trudeau?

7:27 pm: Charest: "Mr. Dumont, why are you saying the opposite of the truth?". Charest goes on to absolutely own Dumont on the topic of school boards.

Quebec's Political Future (Let's get ready to rummmmble!)

7:32 pm: Boisclair says that Charest accepted Trudeau's constitution. Huh? Charest was, like, 24 then. (hat tip to Antonio on that one)

7:35 pm: Boisclair doesn't answer what his "Plan B" is if a referendum fails. Dumont doesn't answer what constitutional powers he wants. They go back and forth on this for about three minutes.

7:40 pm: Boisclair attacks Charest for not demanding enough from Ottawa. Charest then lists everything he's squeezed out of Martin and Harper over the last four years.

7:43 pm: Boisclair compares the fiscal imbalance to giving a blood bank to a vampire. I'm not really sure how the metaphor works but I'm glad he didn't say "giving crack to an addict".

7:47 pm: Dumont says that the Counsel of Federation is a playground for Charest to go to Niagara Falls, Edmonton, and St. John's. Believe me - I live in Edmonton - and no one would consider a trip to Edmonton as a junket or perk.


So, all in all, I'd say Charest did what he had to do - he looked the most like a leader out there. Dumont really fizzled in my opinion. Of course, I'm sure people in Quebec may get a completely different impression from it so it'll be interesting to see tomorrow's media spin.


UPDATE: It's a small sample, but the overnight polls seem to have Dumont taking the debate. Go figure. (H/T Nottawa)

Gaffes All Around

I generally tend to think that "Boisclair under fire for candidate's genocide remarks" is not a headline you want in the midst of a campaign. The actual story isn't quite as bad as the headline makes it sound but still...eek!

This is certainly turning into a fun election to follow. If you like politics, it's hard not to keep your eye on the ever changing three horse race in Quebec.