Wednesday, February 21, 2007

ça commence

Quebecers will go to the polls March 26th, a week after the federal budget.

It's hard to tell how this one turns out, but I'll predict a Charest minority government.



  • A Charest minority government, could work. They could form a coalition or rely on the ADQ to pass any money bills and since both Charest and Mario Dumont are on the right side of the spectrum I don't think it would be too difficult for them to cooperate. The ADQ is a bit more conservative than the PLQ, but the gap is not as large as it is between the federal Conservatives and federal Liberals.

    By Blogger Monkey Loves to Fight, at 6:53 p.m.  

  • minority, CG, would be very exciting.

    I predict a big deflationary majority for Charest at the end of the day....with Dumont running federally after that.

    but it would be so much fun otherwise!

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 7:55 p.m.  

  • Given that Quebec Liberals seem to require an extraordinarily high percentage of the vote to get a majority (for a plurality voting system), I can't see a majority. Heck, they won the popular vote in 1998 with 43% or so, but the other guys won a majority government; last time, they had 45% of the vote and a 12% margin on the other guys and won a majority of about ten or twelve seats. This time I haven't seen a single poll that puts them above 37% with a margin of only a couple of points.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 9:38 p.m.  

  • This election is a toss up. Any of the 3 big parties could conceivably win it and I wouldn't shock me if there is an upset. I agree with CG that there likely will be a minority government.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 10:01 p.m.  

  • But with the PQ semi-folding, and the ADQ doing well, I would see the PLQ getting some lucky seats and maybe pulling off a majority with less than 45% of the vote. Should be close, but I think the safe bet is a PLQ minority or a very slim PLQ majority.

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 11:21 p.m.  

  • chucker; It definitely would be interesting. A PQ minority would be every more intriguing, just because it would be hard for them to justify a referendum with it...but you might see some of Dumont's ideas for things like a Quebec constitution and citizenship put forward.

    It'd also be very hard for the ADQ and PQ to find common ground on financial and social issues.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:22 a.m.  

  • grit:

    my ears are burning! PQ Minority?

    You're such a good Dionista to wish for that!!!! :)

    By Blogger Tarkwell Robotico, at 12:04 p.m.  

  • A minority in Quebec won'T happen ; it would imply ADQ winning waaaay more seats than they'll do.

    And having Dumont as a powerbroker is the least exciting possibility in the history of my province. Really. He's such... brrrr.

    By Blogger Christopher Young, at 12:34 p.m.  

  • Maybe Dumont will wind up with a Bob Rae type victory, all the votes surprised at what happened.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 4:57 p.m.  

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