Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Numbers

I'll have some analysis later today but here are some of the raw numbers from the Quebec election (huge thanks to AT for e-mailing them in!).


Seat totals by region

Montreal
Lib: 20, -1
P.Q: 8, +1
ADQ: 0

Montreal Suburbs (Laval and South Shore)
Lib: 10, -3
P.Q: 4
ADQ: 3 +3

Capitale Nationale
Lib: 2, -7
P.Q: 2
ADQ: 7, +7 (ADQ gained Vanier in byelection)

South East (Eastern Townships and Eastern Monteregie)
Lib: 6, -4
P.Q: 3, -2
ADQ: 6, +6

North of Townships
Lib: 2, -1
P.Q: 5, +1
ADQ: 1

Outaouais and North West Quebec
Lib: 5 -2
P.Q: 4 +2
ADQ: 0

Saguenay
Lib: 0, -2
P.Q: 7, +2
ADQ: 0

Centre Quebec
Lib: 1, -5
P.Q: 0, -2
ADQ:10, +7

Rest of Quebec (Mauricie, Lanaudiere, Laurentides)
Lib: 2, -3
P.Q: 3, -11
ADQ:14, +14


Seat Transfer

Lib gained from P.Q: 1 (lost in byelection)
Laurier-Dorion

P.Q gained from Liberal: 6
Cremazie, Abitibi Est, Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, Jonquiere, Roberval

ADQ gained from Liberal: 21
Huntingdon, La Prairie, Marguerite-D'Youville, Charlesbourg, Chaveau, Jean Lesage, La Peltrie, Montmorency, Portneuf, Chambly, Iberville, St. Jean, Shefford, Arthabaska, Beauce Sud, Bellechasse, Levis, Montmagny-L'Islet, Maskinonge, Trois Rivieres, Groulx

ADQ gained from P.Q: 15
Johnson, St. Hyacinthe-Bagot, Drummond, Nicolet-Yamaska, Champlain, St. Maurice, Berthier, Joliette, L'Assomption, Masson, Terrebonne, Blainville, Deux Montagnes, Mirabel, Prevost


Random Observations

1.Bourget, only riding in Montreal the ADQ received over 15% in 2003. they went from 17.31% to 22.86% this time.

2.The ADQ vote declined in Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue. From 27.66% to 26.84%. This decline might have helped the P.Q take the riding from the Liberals. The former P.Q M.N.A for the riding who was narrowly defeated in 2003 was Remy Trudel who was the top vote getter in Quebec for the N.D.P in 1988. Does anybody think he would have run for the P.Q leadership had he been reelected in 2003?

3. The Liberal vote from the 2003 election to this one declined in 122 ridings.

The only 3 it increased:
-Riviere du Loup (Mario Dumont's riding). The Liberal candidate was the mayor of Riviere du Loup. The Liberal vote went from 23.76% to 28.15%
-Chicoutimi. Andre Harvey was the Liberal candidate. He was a P.C M.P from 1984 to 1993 and a Liberal M.P from 1997-2004. The Liberal vote went from 35.68% to 36.98%
-Lac St Jean. Liberal vote went from 26.17% to 28.85%


4. Only 4 of the 24 Liberal Cabinet Ministers who were running again were defeated: Pierre Corbeil, Michel Despres, Francoise Gauthier, Carole Theberge

5. Quebec Solidaire best ridings:
-Mercier, 29.38%, 2nd, Amir Khadir
-Gouin, 26.04% 2nd, Francoise David
-Ste. Marie-St. Jacques, 14.16%, Manon Masse
-Hochelaga, 9.63% Gabriel Chevrefils
-Rosemont, 9.30%, Francois Saillant


Voter Turn-Out (via Coyne)

2007: 71.3%
2003: 70.4% (record low)
1998: 78.3%
1994: 81.6%
1989: 75.0%
1985: 75.7%
1981: 82.5%
1976: 85.3%
1973: 80.4%
1970: 84.2%
1966: 73.6%
1962: 79.6%
1960: 81.7%

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