Wednesday, February 11, 2009

A Green Wave Sweeps Across Quebec

The latest Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe poll raises some interesting questions - the most prominent being "why was this poll released?". Here are the not-at-all-surprising Quebec splits:

Greens 26%
Liberals 24%
Bloc 22%
CPC 17%
NDP 12%

Now, if we take these numbers at face value (ha ha...well, at least play along), there is only one conclusion to be reached: Quebecers, after flirting with Harper, Layton, and Ignatieff, have now fallen head over heels for Elizabeth May.

Therefore, in the interests of helping the Liberal Party out in Quebec, I have taken the liberty of drafting some attack lines, which could easily be turned into LPC commercials. If we act now, we may be able to stave off this Green menace!

Le Parti Vert - sérieusement?

Elizabeth May: Closet Bruins fan

A vote for the Greens is a vote for the tax-on-everything

Elizabeth May: Fraude

I hate anyone who's ever owned a pony. Don't you?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who rides a tricycle?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who liked Stephane Dion as much as she did?

Because caring about the environment is, like, so 2007

Hat Tip - FaW

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  • I've done some opp research on May, to bring the Greens down:

    May is slated to be a keynote speaker at the Plains of Abraham celebrations this summer.

    May said her only criticism of friend Stephane Dion was that the Clarity Act "didn't go far enough".

    In 2005, May said English only signs would "help integrate Quebecers into North American society".

    Believes Guy Lafleur is guilty and needs to do "serious time".

    By Blogger Steve V, at 7:29 PM  

  • Dan, come back to Alberta. We long for your comments on comment streams like this:

    By Anonymous ch, at 7:37 PM  

  • In the last debate Elizabeth May said Stephen Harper had a beautiful family. The same Stephen Harper that cut arts funding by negative 160 million dollars. The same Stephen Harper that probably eats French people.

    Green, Tory, same old story. On election day, vote for something new, vote Liberal.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 8:46 PM  

  • I concur with ch. Also, when I was in Ontario I secretly dreamed of owning an adult trike. Think of how much stuff you could haul around in one!

    By Anonymous eh, at 9:10 PM  

  • the most prominent being "why was this poll released?"

    Basically my first thought.

    I love the >6% margin of error for Quebec too. How about we poll more than several dozen people and get real numbers, or better yet, just really stop caring about polls altogether.

    Re: horsetohoosier
    Green, Tory, same old story. On election day, vote for something new, vote Liberal.
    Honestly? The Greens are more the same as the Liberals, and I wouldn't say they're the freshest face in Canada. Perhaps I missed the sarcasm in your post.

    By Blogger Ian, at 9:59 PM  

  • Amazingly, they polled 244 people and got this result. Over the same period, Ipsos-Reid and Harris-Demica got the result of 41%-42% for the Bloc and 4%-5% for the Greens.

    I have to agree, why would they release this poll? Or at least release the Quebec numbers? Some employee at Strategic Counsel must have seen these numbers and thought they were awfully odd-looking.

    The best part is that the CTV article even highlights it, saying that Quebecers are abandoning the Bloc and surging towards the Greens. Do they just take everything at face value?

    I contacted Strategic Counsel about this, and got the standard answer about margins of errors and even the chance that they are catching something no other polling firm is.

    By Blogger Éric G., at 11:02 PM  

  • Most likely some worker made a spreadsheet error that transferred 20% from Bloc to Greens or something.

    Bloc 42%
    Liberals 24%
    CPC 17%
    NDP 12%
    Greens 6%

    Sound a hell of a lot more accurate considering the Greens got only 4% in Quebec in the last election and the Bloc is riding above 40% in other polls as well.

    Oh well I'm sure no one at SC was willing to fess up to making such an error:

    Picture random accused worker:
    "oh no I would never make such a serious error as misentering the numbers, this numbers must be legit, surely we are capturing a trend that other polling companies aren't."

    The amusing part will be them explaining the Greens dropping back to 6-7% again in their next poll.

    Maybe they'll call it Elizabeth's May one night stand with Quebec or something.
    rather than admit they put out crappy data.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:46 AM  

  • But even with a 6% moe, that puts the Greens at 20% on the low end. Hell, if you go up to 99% confidence, that still probably leaves them in the 16-18% range, which is still way out there.

    Steve - Good find on the Plains of Abraham op research!

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:37 AM  

  • Green Party: Go ahead. Throw your vote away! You've been doing it since 1993 anyway.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:09 AM  

  • I don't think this is the case at all, but Quebec voters are known for "vote-parking". I recall a time when the NDP went up in Quebec, fueling Pierre Ducasse's bid for leadership. Similarly the Conservatives may have been that option more recently. However, that support just doesn't turn out on election day.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:57 PM  

  • Bailout 2008, a poem by David Jeffrey:

    Like a bloodied warrior,
    laying broken and torn.

    Like a dying soldier, hopeless and forlorn.

    But the blood, it be green,
    the color of money.

    And the soldier is an economy,
    and it is anything but funny.

    Broken are it’s people and shattered are their dreams.

    Thanks to the ultra rich and their full proof schemes.

    It is a tragedy with more pain to come.

    Finance will be Hell, and their wills will be done.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:08 PM  

  • I believe the Green numbers in Quebec. People are sick of the mainstream and looking for new alternatives.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:07 AM  

  • Yeah, three other polls done at the same time put the Greens at 4%-5% and the Bloc at 38%-42%, but this one poll where the Greens poll better than they've ever polled anywhere in Canada is probably correct.

    By Blogger Éric G., at 8:58 AM  

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