Saturday, March 17, 2007

Spin Away

The latest Ipsos Poll:

CPC 36
Lib 34
NDP 12
BQ 9
Green 8

So, the Tories go from 14 points up a few weeks back down to a 2 point lead. There's only one logical conclusion to reach; Yes sir, Stephen Harper is steamrolling to a majority government.


In other news, Elizabeth May is ready to take on Peter MacKay. She'll lose, but it'll be one of the most interesting riding battles to watch, without a doubt.

UPDATE: Just because I don't feel like starting another post on yet another poll, SES has some interesting numbers from Quebec. Bottom line: Andre Boisclair isn't a very popular man, even though his party is positioned well to get the most seats.

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  • There's obviously some disagreement between these polls.

    Both the Liberals and Conservatives seemed locked in at around 33-36 percent each.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 10:43 p.m.  

  • The big news of the night was Harper's speech and the hint of calling an election later this week and the fact that he had sweat stains (an odd comment). Anyways, the talk is that Harper is done if he only wins a minority again. Since Harper loves polls I think he will take a step back after this one.

    By Blogger liberazzi, at 11:28 p.m.  

  • yeah I hate doing this but your post is wrong according to your link... it actually states that the liberals have 26%..... all I can say is come budget day the liberals need to somehow get Canadians attention or they're screwed.

    By Blogger Kevrichard, at 11:34 p.m.  

  • or..... perhaps you're conflicting links completely confused me . But then again aren't we all confused at the moment, I mean there is no clear answer to who's going to win....

    By Blogger Kevrichard, at 11:36 p.m.  

  • I'm from Central Nova (though I now go to university in Ontario) and I really dislike Peter MacKay, but you're right, May won't beat him. Actually if anything I think it makes it more likely he will win; the NDP will be running a candidate there (at least they said they would today) and May running probably spoils any chance they had at taking out Peter. Sigh.

    By Blogger CanadianRyan, at 1:27 a.m.  

  • But I guess the upside is, for the first time in a very long time (probably since Brian Mulroney won a byelection there in the early 1980s), people across the country will actually be watching the Central Nova riding during the campaign and on election night.

    By Blogger CanadianRyan, at 1:36 a.m.  

  • For the life of me I cannot fathom why May would choose this riding. Landing even a single Green seat in the Commons still remains a Herculean why add to the difficulty by going up against a high-profile Minister who has a fairly good grip on his riding, as opposed to running somewhere like Vancouver.

    As for the election talk...Ha! Wasn't this guy just saying last week how badly he didn't want an election?

    By Blogger shadowbox, at 12:02 p.m.  

  • Regarding the poll, I'd say that, with the exception of the NDP, the major parties' support levels are probably quite close to where they were in January 2006.

    Now, about Elizabeth May.....what is she thinking? Running in a high-profile cabinet minister's riding whose portfolio has NO RELEVANCE to the environment, and who won in the face of an already divided left-wing vote in the last election? May has heart, but I wonder about her political shrewdness. Why not run in an already left-leaning Nova Scotia riding, like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour or Sydney-Victoria? What about in another part of the country, like London-North Centre, where she has already established a base of support? In additon, MacKay is now the most high-profile cabinet minister in the Atlantic region, and the ONLY cabinet minister from Nova Scotia; does she think she can beat himv so easily, when her party garnered around 2% of the vote in this riding in the last election?

    By Blogger daniel, at 3:16 p.m.  

  • My understanding is Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid are now separate companies. Still I think their poll showing the Tories at 40% was probably a rogue poll. Pretty much every poll over the past few weeks has put them at 35-36%. The Liberals on the hand seem to be more varied, I suspect as NDP and Green supporters are deciding whether to vote strategically to keep the Tories out or go for the first choice.

    As for defeating Peter MacKay, Elizabeth May certainly won't. The only party that could realistically take him out is the NDP and even that would be difficult. Besides his high profile, Mainland Rural Nova Scotia is one of the few conservative areas in Atlantic Canada (St. John's and Southern New Brunswick being the others) so even if the Conservatives aren't popular in most of Atlantic Canada, it shouldn't impact them too much here. After all it was the high turnout in mainland Rural Nova Scotia and low turnout in Halifax that led to the defeat in a referendum on sunday shopping.

    By Blogger Monkey Loves to Fight, at 4:07 p.m.  

  • Why not run in an already left-leaning Nova Scotia riding, like Dartmouth-Cole Harbour or Sydney-Victoria? What about in another part of the country, like London-North Centre, where she has already established a base of support?

    It seems she wants to run against a Conservative (in which case, there were clearly easier ones available).

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 6:26 p.m.  

  • Aw, polls are all just crazy talk, it seems to me, they never even agree!

    I would like to see a Green MP in the House; I just don't see May winning against McKay though. She had some strong options, and chose this one? I was certain she would win a seat -- in a different riding. Well, maybe she knows something I don't...

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 7:16 p.m.  

  • may vs mackay slogan:
    vote may and take the ack out of central nova

    By Blogger kenlister1, at 7:23 p.m.  

  • Been away the last week and a bit and catching up -- completely missed that Anders-nomination-ruling story, thanks so much for putting that one up.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 7:27 p.m.  

  • May talks a good line, but if you haven't examined the GPC policy manual, you can't understand how vulnerable she is /the Greens are to being torpedoed in any election.

    Some of the stuff reads like the socialistic international . . . I was surprised they don't promise to build statues to Fidel Castro in all Canadian schools.

    She/ they are not a mainstream party . . . just more socialist fringe to give Taliban Jack some heartburn.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:46 p.m.  

  • It seems she wants to run against a Conservative (in which case, there were clearly easier ones available).

    I agree; it would have made much more sense to go against John Baird if she wanted to make a point, or maybe Gary Lunn. I could understand if her motivation was to knock of a Conservative whose portfolio is connecteed with the environment, but May's move suggests her mindset is more that "Conservatives = the bad guys," rather than "the Green Party platform = important enough to deserve an MP".

    By Blogger daniel, at 8:15 p.m.  

  • The first Green Party MP will get her/his seat via PR, if that ever gets implemented (it should).

    By Blogger Montrealer, at 9:52 p.m.  

  • CG, you are forgetting this part of the story:

    The poll found the Conservative government's second budget could convince one-third of Liberal voters, about one-quarter of NDP supporters, three in 10 Green party voters and 15 per cent of Bloc Quebecois supporters to switch their choice to the Conservatives in the next election because of what's delivered in the budget.

    As Bricker points out, if one-third of the Liberals' support does go to the Tories, we're not just talking about a Tory majority, but a Tory landslide.

    By Blogger Brian in Calgary, at 12:58 p.m.  

  • Maybe the headline predicting a conservative majority is confusing because it's biased in favour of them instead of the liberals for a change?

    By Blogger Unknown, at 8:09 p.m.  

  • I completely agree with the post.

    By Anonymous, at 4:07 a.m.  

  • By Blogger mmjiaxin, at 8:00 p.m.  

  • By Blogger jeje, at 3:25 a.m.  

  • By Blogger Unknown, at 9:42 p.m.  

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