Alberta Election Pool

On Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a "historic" election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool.

It's simple enough - predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets 87 points minus one point for each seat you're off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question.

Robert Vollman has generously donated the following political book prize packs (shipping extra, unless we can arrange a pick-up in Calgary or Toronto):

1. The Bill of Rights package: One Canada (Diefenbaker), Memoirs (Trudeau)
2. The Preston Manning package: Thinking Big, The New Canada and Roots of Reform
3. The Jean Chretien package: The Friendly Dictatorship, Straight From the Heart
4. The Federalists package: A Nation Too Good to Lose (Joe Clark), Fighting for Canada (Diane Francis)
5. The Obscure Package: The Betrayal of Canada (Mel Hurtig), Navigating a New World (Lloyd Axworthy)

First choice goes to the overall winner, with the winners of the seat prediction portion and the bonus question portion also winning a book pack. So even if you're an Ontarian like myself with no clue what a "Ted Morton" is, never mind if he'll win his seat, you can skip the bonus questions and still be eligible for the prizes, based on a shot-in-dark seat prediction.

Contest will close as soon as the polls open Monday. Please paste your entry in the comments here or at daveberta, or e-mail your picks in to calgarygrit@gmail.com.


Election Results Questions

Number of MLAs elected by each party (total: 87 MLAs)

Alberta Party:
Liberal:
NDP:
PC:
Wildrose:
Other:


Bonus Question

1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote:
(2008 results here; candidate list here; top ridings last time: Vermilion-Lloydminster (Lloyd Snelgrove - not running), Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Ed Stelmach - not running), Bonnyville-Cold Lake (Genia Leskiw), Strathmore-Brooks (Arno Doerksen), Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (Ray Danyluk))

2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?
(Morton won with 57% of the vote last time, but 308.com projects 22-point Wildrose win)

3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?
(Redford beat the Liberals by 3% last election, and 308.com projects her to beat the Wildrose by 3%)

4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?
(As a PC, Sherman defeated the Liberals 54% to 30% in 2008)

5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding? (points if you're within +/- 5%)
(Polls show them under 5% province-wide, but they've targeted a pair of Edmonton constituencies, including the one in Q7)

6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?
(308.com projects Hunsberger to lose, but has Leech in a virtual dead heat)

7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?
(Candidates: Sue Huff AP, Bruce Miller Lib, Ray Martin NDP, Heather Klimchuk PC, Don Koziak WR; 2008 vote: PC 40%, Lib 39%, NDP 15%, WR 2%)

8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?
(Alison Redford PC, Danielle Smith WR, Raj Sherman Lib, Brian Mason NDP, Glenn Taylor AP)

9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?
(They're running 3 candidates, the PCs are running 3 candidates, the Greens have 1 candidate, and there are 6 independents; full list here)

10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?
(current polls have them effectively tied)

Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?

Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there's no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it's impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will look like.

The first problem with any seat projection is that all polls split Alberta into three regions for reporting purposes - Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta. While that's the most logical cut, just as downtown Calgary and suburban Calgary are two very different entities, lumping Red Deer and Peace River into the "rural Alberta" umbrella masks regional trends.

Moreover, the regional sample sizes in these polls are small, carrying large margins of error. It's not at all surprising to see the PCs up by 4 in Calgary Monday morning, but trailing by 14 come dinner time. Yes, it's possible a Wildrose chinook rolled across the city, but it's more likely we're dealing with the effects of small sample sizes and varying methodologies.

But even if we're lucky enough to get completely accurate polls, extrapolating out seat totals is a fool's errand. Seat projections in the last few federal elections have generally worked well, because we've had a good baseline to work with. If the Liberal vote is down 5 points in Ontario from 2008 to 2011, it's not hard to do the math for each riding. However, the Wildrose Alliance was little more than a protest party last time Albertans went to the polls, so it's counter productive to calculate their 2012 support using their 2008 vote. When a party rises from nothingness, it's extremely difficult to predict vote patterns - there's a reason seat projections showed the NDP winning anywhere from 20 to 70 seats in Quebec last spring, and a reason 308.com projects a Wildrose seat range of between 27 and 74 seats.

Toss in wild 4-way splits in Edmonton, incumbency effects, riding redistricting, and a map skewed to favour rural Alberta, and we're dealing with Alberta's most unpredictable election in a long time.

So the bottom line is we don't know what the next legislature will look like, but if the vote stays close, Alberta's first ever minority government is a distinct posibility. So what happens then?

The first thing to consider is the likelihood of defections. A floor crossing epidemic has spread across Alberta in recent years, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a handful of Progressive Conservatives take a step to the right after the election. Few PC MLAs supported Redford when she ran for leader, and she hasn't exactly endeared herself to them over the past month. Many in her caucus share the same Wildrose positions Redford spent the campaign ridiculing, and the prospect of an NDP-supported Redford budget might be too much for them to bear.

Hell, if Smith is only a handful of seats shy of a majority, expect an exodus. PC MLAs have never sat on the opposition benches, and many chose their party colours merely because they saw the PCs as the only avenue to power. It's not like Danielle Smith has her hands full of "Cabinet material" candidates to choose from, so she wouldn't hesitate for a second to offer Cabinet posts to entice one or two Tories across the floor.

But let's assume for a moment that Redford holds the PC ship together - maybe the PCs even find themselves ahead of the Wildrosers. The focus then shifts to the Liberals and NDP, who will likely win 4 to 10 seats between them. The Saskatchewan Liberals found themselves in a similar situation in 1996, and their decision to take Cabinet posts in an NDP government eventually led to the demise of that party. So it was somewhat curious when Liberal leader Raj Sherman began the negotiation process during an online debate yesterday, by asking Smith and Redford if they'd name him Minister of Health.

While I don't think the good doctor will get his wish, nearly everyone I've talked to assumes the PCs would cut some kind of deal with what's left of the left - even if they win fewer seats than the Wildrosers. But I'm not convinced.

The Liberals and NDP have spent decades waiting for the PC empire to crumble and if Smith offers them a deal - say some democratic reform measures and a hold on the more objectionable parts of Wildrose platform - I wouldn't be shocked to see an unholly alliance. After all, seeing the Wildrose Party in power would surely plunge the PCs into infighting and a leadership race.

For the Wildrose Party, the benefits of a deal with the left are obvious - the aforementioned PC chaos, and a chance to govern "non-scarily" thanks to the calming influence of the Liberals and NDP (think Stephen Harper from 2006 to 2011). Keep in mind, Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan has gone on record as stating he saw nothing wrong with Harper's threat to cut a deal with the separatists and socialists in 2004, after winning fewer seats than Paul Martin. Smith sounded like she was laying the groundwork for this type of arrangement during the leaders debate, when she went out of her way to compliment Raj Sherman and talked about how she's been able to work with the NDP in the legislature.

As strange as it may sound, life may soon be imitating the scenes from a satirical 2010 press gallery video, featuring Brian Mason barking orders ("left, left, left") at Danielle Smith and a Wildrose caucus decked out in orange NDP shirts. Hell, the video even features a cameo from then-independent MLA Raj Sherman.

Alberta Votes Day 19: The Morning After

The hype machines were in overdrive for yesterday's Alberta Leaders Debate, but the outcome was similar to most debates: steady but unspectacular performances from all the candidates, with the end result nothing more than re-enforcing existing attitudes. The post-debate Ipsos poll bears that out; when asked who won, 37% opted for Smith, 28% for Redford, 13% for Sherman, and 10% for Mason - similar to the party support levels in most recent polls.

Given she's leading the polls 10 days before the vote, a messy draw was likely good enough for Danielle Smith. If you'd never heard of Danielle Smith before, you'd likely be impressed by her performance - but the woman has been more over hyped than Tim Tebow, and I find her less likable over 90 minutes than in photo ops and sound bytes. There was nothing Laytonesque in her performance, but she gets marks for avoiding the "inside baseball" stuff more than Redford, and framing issues in a way casual voters can understand and relate to.

Alison Redford found herself under attack all night long, even from one of the moderators, Vassy Kepelos, who asked Redford a triple-barrelled question that amounted to "how could anyone in their right mind trust you?". But Redford held her own against each attack, looking very much like a Premier. In most elections, that would be more than enough for the PC leader, but Redford needed to make Danielle Smith look scary, and there was nothing scary about the mostly cheerful Smith who talked about her ability to work with the NDP, and spun Danny Dollars as a way to help the poorest Albertans. Redford failed to land a good soundbyte on conscience rights, and wasted far too much time attacking Smith over trivial insider issues.

Considering Michael Ignatieff made absolutely no headway going after Harper on Carson, Contempt, and Corruption during last May's debate, I don't know what Redford hoped to accomplish by continuing to press Smith over two year old floor crossings. The details are murky enough that it's not a clear cut ethical breach, and even if it were, I can't imagine it would shift a single vote outside of the two ridings in question. With all the things Danielle Smith has written or said in her lifetime, and all the extremist positions her party holds, Redford's inability to land a punch was disappointing.

Raj Sherman was the least polished of the four leaders, and the delivery of his over rehearsed sound bytes was often clunky. Despite the poor style marks, he scored well on content, striking a nice balance between pointing out the conservative nature of the PCs and selling his own party's platform. As expected, he pivoted to Health Care whenever possible, but Sherman held his own on other issues. He did enough to stop the bleeding to the PCs, but I'm skeptical we was compelling enough to win back Redford Liberals.

Brian Mason was the most seasoned debater on stage and looked the most at ease. He played all the NDP greatest hits, promising "results for people" and telling anecdotes of his conversations with Albertans. The only thing missing was a story about him taking Andrea Horwath's son to the emergency room. I suspect a lot of Albertans liked the Brian Mason they saw last night, but I can't imagine he moved many votes. He was short on specifics, and his overall "pro-tax, anti-oilsands" message won't move him far beyond the NDP base.


So where do we go from here?

The debate was a missed opportunity for Redford, leaving her no option but to blanket the Alberta airwaves with anti-Wildrose attack ads. The PC dynasty may be on the way out, but it's going to go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Alberta Votes Day 18: Debate Night in Edmonton

More often than not, the Alberta leader's debate is a mere formality, intended to create a vaneer of democracy in a province where elections tend to be meaningless. It's barely worth watching, because even if someone delivers the mythic "knock out punch", it doesn't affect the election outcome. Hell, had Ed Stelmach literally gone over to Kevin Taft and punched him in the face last debate, it wouldn't have changed much.

From 1997 to 2004, Ralph Klein's debate prep was never more intensive than taking a swig of whiskey before going on stage. In 2008, one of the debate questions was literally "how come none of you are charismatic?", to which Brian Mason gave a memorable - albeit unemotional - "my wife thinks I'm charismatic" rebuttal.

This time, it's different.

Alberta is in the midst of its first competitive election in 19 years, and tonight's debate could very well tip the scales. Three of the four leaders are rookies, and newspaper reporters routinely get Brian Mason's name wrong in stories, so it's not like he's a household name anywhere outside of the Mason household. For all intents and purposes, this will be the first and only chance for the leaders to make an impression.

Global will be airing the debate on the tube and online from 6:30 to 8 mountain time. If you're looking for a good time, the National Post offers a drinking game - for a simpler version, simply take a shot of Big Rock every time you hear the words "conscience rights", "41 years", or "money for nothing".

I'll be live blogging as long as I stay sober, and the following are what I'll be looking for from the party leaders:



She may never have run for an office higher than School Board Trustee, but Danielle Smith enters this debate as the favourite. She's photogenic, well spoken, and knows a thing or two about how to act in front of a TV camera.

Of course, most voters have likely gotten to know Smith through carefully orchestrated photo ops and sound bytes. Her challenge is therefore to remain likable for the full hour and a half. If she can accomplish that, the substance of the debate will be largely meaningless. So long as Smith doesn't look like the extremist Redford paints her out to be, the election is hers for the taking.



Alison Redford's gutsy debate performance 3 days before the PC leadership vote, in the wake of her mother's passing, likely won her that contest. It will take an equally impressive performance tonight for her to save the 41 year old PC dynasty (41 years - take a drink!).

Unlike Smith, who can win on style marks, Redford will need good content scores to take this one. And therein lies the problem. She must paint the Wildrose Party as extremists...for holding the same views as many in her caucus. She must woe Liberal and NDP voters worried about Smith, all the while reassuring conservatives she bleeds blue. She must present herself as an agent of change, yet make the case that Alberta can't afford the type of change the Wildrose Party is offering.

She will be forced to defend the PC record, but must brush off attacks over PC scandal. She will make the case for increased spending on health care and education, but will warn that Danielle Smith's numbers don't add up.

Redford is juggling a dozen balls in the air. If she pulls it off, she's going to impress a lot of people, but it's far more likely they'll all come crashing down on live TV.



Raj Sherman is likely the least polished of the four leaders, but he does project a certain amount of genuineness - especially when talking about Health Care. Expect Sherman to stay in his wheelhouse tonight, using Health Care to define himself (as a former ER doctor) and attack the PCs (over corruption and mismanagement). If you're placing bets, there's a 1 in 15 chance he'll show up to the debate wearing scrubs.

With Redford looking to her right, Sherman is unlikely to face the same "tax and spend" and "NEP" attacks as his predecessors. The challenge for this former Tory MLA lies in recapturing the Liberal base, as most polls have Liberal support cut in half from their 1997-2008 levels. With this in mind, he should not be afraid to rally progressives behind the Liberals' "tax the rich to pay for health and education" platform.

The risk he faces is that many Liberals may reluctantly back the evil empire, to stop the Wildrosers. For all intents and purposes, any attack on Smith tonight is a de facto attack on himself.



Brian Mason faces the least pressure of any leader, since the rise of the Wildrose does little to alter his message. He doesn't have the same balancing act as the other leaders, and can speak directly to his base of Edmontonians who get off on recycling.

Mason will therefore read from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook, arguing the other three parties are all the same. The over/under on the number of times he refers to Raj Sherman as "a former conservative" has been set at 4.5 for the night.

Alberta Votes Day 12: Who says a 40 year old government can't come up with new ideas?

Raj Sherman delivers perhaps the best line of the campaign so far:

'Alison Redford Invents Triage'

Alberta's Tory leader has announced money for faster treatment in emergency rooms, but the Grit leader — an ER physician — says the program is already in place.

Tory Leader Alison Redford said patients with serious injuries will be a priority and will be fast-tracked in the program.

"Through this initiative, these patients will be appropriately directed through a quicker screening process that will result in faster treatment and a faster return home for all patients," said Redford.

"Fantastic idea," Alberta Liberal Leader and ER doc Raj Sherman shot back in a news release titled "Alison Redford Invents Triage."

"Why didn't we think of it earlier? We need to come up with a name for this. Why don't we call it triage?"

My sources indicate Redford will be making her next big health care announcement in Edmonton tomorrow. There, she will unveil plans to create a fleet of emergency vehicles with sirens, designed to rush Albertans to the hospital.

Alberta Votes

The writ has been dropped, and Albertans will go to the polls on April 23. The past few years have been wildly turbulent, with shocking municipal votes, the rise of the Wildrose, parties desanctioned and founded, leadership races in nearly every party (2 for the Liberals), and floor crosings aplenty. Despite this, the PCs are expected to win a 12th consecutive majority government. It is, after all, still Alberta.

If the election has prompted you to look in on Alberta politics for the first time in a while, the following overview should give you the background you need to keep score at home.


Alison Redford and the PCs

Redford stunned everyone with her come-from-behind win in last Fall's PC leadership race, despite trailing Gary Marr 41% to 19% after the first round of voting. That leadership contest was triggered by Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation, when the Premier was gently pushed aside over concerns about his electability - Stelmach you'll recall, was only able to win 72 of 83 seats in his first election as party leader in 2008.

Redford is seen as being squarely on the left of the PC Party, and was once called a "feminist lawyer" by Rob Anders. her leadership campaign focused on health care and education, targeting female voters. It should therefore come as no surprise that the Alberta Liberals have taken a hit in the polls since Redford's ascension to power.

Redford has remained popular since winning the leadership, but has proven to be one of the least exciting Premier's in the province's history. Not so much in terms of personality (no one could match her predecessor there), but in terms of content. She kind of kept her fixed election date promise, by giving herself a three month election window. She kind of kept her promise to hold an independent judicial inquiry into the health care system, but limited the mandate. Her budget was popular, but painfully cautious. There have been a few missteps and scandlettes, but even they have been boring (Gary Mar's post-leadership fundraising letter mentioned his position as ambassador...zzzzzz....).

She might as well be running on a slogan of "Meh. Why not?".

Election Strategy: The PCs have used a tagline of "Danielle Smith: Not Worth the Risk" in early attack ads, promoting the stability offered by the PCs - after all, what's more stable than a 40 year old government?

This stalking horse also serves to frame the election as a Wildrose-PC showdown, in a bid to scare "Redford Liberals" into voting PC and making disgruntled conservatives think twice about casting a protest vote for the Wildrose. Expect reports aplenty of "anonymous Conservatives" worried about a Wildrose victory - even if they're comfortably ahead in the polls.

Policy: I wouldn't hold my breath expecting anything bold from Redford. No new taxes, a little bit of money for Health Care, a little bit of money for feel good programs, and a little bit of...hey look over there at the Wildrose Party!



Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party

Danielle Smith was the golden girl of Alberta politics for a two year stretch, starting in the summer of 2009. She was the subject of countless "hey, let's see if anything interesting is happening in Alberta" political profiles by the national press, and the local media treated her like she walked on water. Then Alison Redford came along and now the only time the media talks about Smith is when they're chuckling over her bus.

Even if Smith can't lead the Wildrose Party to the promised land, the mere fact that we're talking about this possibility is quite the accomplishment. Dozens of right wing parties have come and gone in Alberta over the years, but none have ever moved beyond fringe status. While some of the Wildrose's success is no doubt due to the shortcomings of the PCs, I suspect at least half their votes are driven by Smith herself.

Strategy: The biggest asset the Wildrose Party has is Danielle Smith. If I were running the campaign, I'd make the election all about her and use a lot of flowery language about "change" and the "potential of Alberta". Instead, my suspicion is campaign manager Tom Flanagan is planing a nasty campaign which will be all about Alison Redford. I recognize there's a need to define your opponent, but I think there's a greater need to define Smith as something more than an angry outsider.

That said, if you're going to attack Redford, the best issue to go at her on is probably the revelation that PC MLAs were paid thousands to sit on a government committee which never met. It's a simple message anyone can understand, and it speaks to government entitlement and waste - a good wedge issue for the Wildrosers.

Just don't go overboard on it. Like I said - the focus should be on Danielle.

Policy: Think of the early Reform Party - a lot of talk about reducing spending, a splash of democratic reform, and avoid talking about social issues as much as possible. Given Alberta's flirtations with private health care over the years, it will be interesting to see if Smith dares go down that road. Either way, Health Care will be a dicey issue for her, since it's nearly impossible for the Wildrose Party to meet its targeted spending cuts without axing something from the Health Care budget.


Raj Sherman and the Alberta Liberal Party

The PCs are led by a woman many have accused of being a "closet Liberal". The Liberals? They have a former PC in charge.

Sherman's story is an odd one. After being elected as a PC in 2008 and named Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Health, Sherman was fired in 2010 after sending off a late night e-mail to his entire address book, blasting Ed Stelmach's performance on the Health Care file. Since then, he has raised shocking claims about inefficiency, intimidation, and corruption in the Health system. Depending on who you ask, he's either a Health Care crusader or a crazy person.

Strategy: If the election gets framed as a Smith/Redford showdown, the Liberals are going to get squeezed down to a handful of ridings. And truth be told, there's probably not much they can do to prevent that at this point.

My advice would be to make the election all about Health Care - it's the one area where Sherman and the ALP have credibility and it's an important issue to voters. The Liberals may be fighting for media attention this campaign so they need to be focused, and Health Care is the smartest issue for them to be talking about.

Although they've now signed a deal, it likely helps that the Alberta Medical Association spent much of the past month running newspaper ads criticizing Redford's Health Care record.

Policy: The Liberals have released a relatively bold platform, funded by a proposed tax increase on the richest Albertans and businesses. Among their promises is a move towards free tuition, which should help the party hold their University ridings.


Brian Mason and the NDP

The NDP passed the Liberals federally in Alberta in 2008, and beat them by a 2:1 ratio there in 2011. Those results, coupled with positive polling numbers lead many to believe the NDP can vault ahead of the provincial Grits this campaign.

Somewhat surprisingly, Mason is the only leader back from the 2008 election. Despite the mustache, no one will mistake him for Jack Layton, but Mason is an underrated politician, capable of staying on message and delivering a good sound byte.

Strategy: NDP support remains concentrated in Edmonton, so that's where they'll spend the bulk of their time. Their message will likely be from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook.

Policy: With the Alberta Green Party desanctioned, the NDP have "gone green", right down to the colour palette on their website. Their four priorities include a "green energy plan" and "full value royalties", so they aren't afraid to go after big oil.


Glen Taylor and the Alberta Party

A year ago, the Alberta Party was making waves inside the political bubble - their messaging was solid, many of their key organizers had tasty victory with the Nenshi campaign, and they'd lured over ex-Liberal MLA Dave Taylor. However, like most internet fads, this one has faded, never really catching on with the public.

The Alberta Party will run around 30-40 candidates, with Taylor their only realistic hope (Glen that is, Dave isn't running). I'd put the over/under on their province-wide support at around 2%.

Strategy: Getting into the debates would be a huge boost for the Alberta Party, but this seems unlikely. Without that exposure, they'll need to rely on their strong online presence to get their message out.

Policy: They're big on #listening. You can check out their platform here.

Alberta 2011 in Review

One of my favourite sayings is "If you don't like the weather in Alberta, wait 30 minutes. If you don't like the politicians, wait 30 years." However, the sleepy world of Alberta politics has come alive in recent years and 2011 was no exception.

A year ago, Ed Stelmach was Premier, Ted Morton was his Finance Minister and heir apparent, and David Swann was the leader of the opposition. Today, "feminist lawyer" Alison Redford is Premier and former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman leads the Liberals. Perhaps most shockingly of all, NDP leader Brian Mason shaved his stache.

So for those who haven't been paying attention to Alberta politics, here's what you missed in 2011.


Ed Stelmach and his wife share a lighter moment at his resignation press conference.

The PCs 2011 Year in Review

At the start of 2011, the PCs were leading the polls and nearing their 40th consecutive year in power. Ed Stelmach had won 72 seats in his first election as leader, a 10-seat improvement over Ralph Klein. So, of course, he had to go.

On January 25th, admid rumours of internal dissention, Ed Stelmach resigned as Premier.

Two days later, Ted Morton resigned as Finance Minister, refusing to bring in a deficit budget. Well, another deficit budget - Ted had run a $5 billion deficit as Finance Minister in 2010. Oh, and during the 2011 leadership race he promised to balance the books in 2013 - the exact same pledge as in the budget he refused to deliver.

Despite high expectations, Morton's leadership campaign lumbered along to a disappointing fourth place finish. Some chalk this off to Morton's supporters having already left for the Wildrose Alliance, but I see it as voters punishing Morton for his inability to follow up his 2006 hit, Ted Morton is the man, with a new theme song.

Instead, Gary Mar emerged as the frontrunner, scoring endorsement after endorsement, and leading Alison Redford 41% to 19% after the first ballot. Mar had it in the bag, but then women, teachers, and other left wing pinkos stormed the ballot box for the second round of voting. When the dust settled, Redford was Premier and Gary Mar was lamenting the cruelty of the PC leadership rules over a beer with Jim Dinning.

After her victory, Redford named a Cabinet, cancelled then un-cancelled the fall sitting of the legislature, and kind of kept her fixed election date promise. That may not sound like a lot, but Redford spent a great deal of time "being awesome".

As 2012 begins, Redford is still very much in the honeymoon phase. Liberals are happy that Alberta has its first liberal Premier in 90 years. Conservatives are happy that they're at 51% in the polls. Yes, everyone is happy - except for...


Get with the media narrative people! Danielle Smith is, like, so 2010.

Wildrose Party 2011 in Review

For Danielle Smith, 2011 was a harsh dose of reality. She started the year as a media darling both inside and outside Alberta. Newspapers would routinely profile her under headlines like "Danielle Smith doesn't walk on water - she runs on it!" or "Danielle Smith: Great politician or the greatest politician?". Yes, she led a party which had received 7% of the vote last election, had changed it's name 3 times in as many years, and had 4 castoff MLAs. But her midichlorian count was off the charts - she was universally seen as the chosen one who would bring balance to Alberta politics.

Politics is often compared to High School and from 2009 to 2010, Danielle was the most popular girl in school. Why was she popular? Because she was cool. Why was she cool? If you're asking, that's a sign you're not cool.

But then the new girl showed up and Danielle was, like, so 2010. So how did Danielle respond? She started spreading rumours about Alison. Not cool.

So the Wildrose doesn't smell quite as sweet as it did in 2010. Still, it could be worse. Which brings us to...


Possible election slogan: Raj Against the PC Machine

The Liberal Party 2011 in Review

I usually describe David Swann to non-Albertans as "a less charismatic version of Stephane Dion". That's likely mean but, as the federal grits learned this spring, they could do a lot worse than Stephane Dion. The provincial Liberals may learn the same lesson in 2012.

After dumping Swann, the Liberals went out a replaced him with former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman - presumably on the assumption that what Albertans are looking for is a PC leader...only with NEP baggage.

Sherman is a colourful character. The former medical doctor was elected to the PCs in 2008, then was quit/fired in 2010 after sending off a late night angry e-mail to Ed Stelmach and 40 of his closest friends, where he railed against Stelmach's health care record. (Possible PC commercial in next campaign - "When the phone rings at 3 am...it's probably Raj Sherman calling")

Since then, Sherman has raised the spectre of scandal, bribery, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. At times, he sounds like a Health Care crusader. At times, he sounds like Oscar Fech. Sherman is very much a wild card.

It's hard to say how he'll play with the public, but after a string of dull-as-paint leaders, no one will accuse the Liberals of being boring next election. Which is more than can be said for...


Unlike "mainstream" parties who try to "get votes", the Alberta Party is "doing politics differently".

The Alberta Party 2011 in Review

Much like Rebecca Black, the Alberta Party burst onto the scene early in 2011 as an Internet sensation.

Like most internet memes, this one appears to have been mostly fleeting. Sure, there were highlights in 2011 - Dave Taylor, frustrated with the Liberals' policy of not electing him Liberal Leader, become the first Alberta Party MLA in January. And there was the day in March they got 47 re-tweets. But despite those bright moments, the only media attention on the Alberta Party of late has been "what happened to the Alberta Party" stories.

So how did it all go wrong? Many blame Glenn Taylor, who was named leader in May, after a lackluster leadership campaign. (fun fact: the Alberta Party has 3,169 followers on Twitter, but just 1,200 voted in its leadership race)

I see the Alberta Party problem more as one of "supply and demand" than anything else. Alberta politics needs a third party left of the PCs about as much as federal politics needs a third communist party. Yeah, neither the Marxist-Leninists nor the Communist Party have been very effective, but would a tech savvy, well branded "Workers Revolution Party" do much better? Likely not.



PS. Technically speaking, the NDP are also a political party in Alberta.

The Alberta Test Drive

No surprise, as Raj Sherman wins the Alberta Liberal leadership race on the first ballot:

Raj Sherman: 54% (4684 votes)
Hugh MacDonald: 26% (2239 votes)
Laurie Blakeman: 9% (854 votes)
Bill Harvey: 7% (626 votes)
Bruce Payne: 2% (197 votes)

As I wrote on Friday, this leadership race deserved watching, even outside Alberta, since it was the first in Canada to be run on a supporter system. The vote was open to all Liberal supporters, not just party members.

So how did the test drive go?

The number most will look at is 8,640 - the number of Albertans who voted, nearly double the total in the 2008 race. Of course, you take Sherman out of the equation and we're back to 2008 levels. I have anecdotal evidence to suggest some supporters wouldn't have taken out memberships, but if we're being honest about it, the new system clearly didn't lead to a stampede of interest in the Alberta grits.

What it did do was get the party contact information for 27,000 Albertans. Even if only a fraction take lawnsigns, volunteer, or donate money in the next election, that's a win.

But the most telling number in this little primary experiment is probably 626 - the number of votes Bill Harvey collected. Whenever I pitch the supporter system to Ontario Liberals, their biggest concern is that right-wing special interest groups will take over the party. I never really understood this, since there's nothing to stop them from paying $5 or $10 a head for memberships now. If anything, the primary system makes a takeover more difficult because it means more votes are needed to win. But the fear exists and, up until yesterday, there wasn't a good case study to dispute it.

Harvey was endorsed by Craig Chandler's PGIB group, yet he was a non-factor in this contest. If a sickly provincial Liberal Party had no problem fighting off a right-wing insurgency in Alberta, it seems clear the federal grits have little to fear from a supporter system.

No, this wouldn't solve all that plagues the LPC, because a lot of problems plague the LPC. But the Alberta test-drive shows it works, with little downside.

This Week in Alberta - The Liberals Pick a Leader

It will be a busy fall politically, with provincial elections in Ontario, Saskatchewan, PEI, Newfoundland, and Manitoba. Although we likely won't see an Alberta vote until 2012, the province will get a new Premier, thanks to Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation in January. The first round of voting takes place on September 17th, and assuming no one gets the coveted 50% + 1, the three finalists will square off in a steer wrassling contest on October 1st to determine the winner.

Alberta's official opposition also finds itself in a leadership contest, with the winner being crowned tomorrow from the following list of candidates:

Laurie Blakeman: website, profile
Bill Harvey: website, profile
Hugh MacDonald: website, profile
Bruce Payne: website, profile
Raj Sherman: website, profile

The announcement likely won't get a ton of media coverage - after all, if media reports are to be believed, former PC MLA Raj Sherman is heading for an easy first ballot victory. And let's be honest, Alberta Liberal leadership contests usually turn out to be about as important in the scheme of things as Bloc Quebecois nomination meetings in Mount Royal.

But I'll still be watching the results tomorrow with interest, for a few reasons:

1. Despite the high number of supporters Sherman signed up, it remains to be seen how many will actually vote and how many will actually vote for him. Wednesday's bizarre tweet from Sherman only confirms this:


2. This is the first trial run of a primary-style "supporter system" in Canada, so politicos will be watching to see how many supporters actually take the time to vote. The Alberta Grits drew 4,500 votes when they picked a leader in 2008 - if they can triple that number, support for the system could pick up outside Alberta.

3. With Craig Chandler's ultra-Conservative PGIB backing Bill Harvey, the supporter system is getting a real test on just how "takeover proof" it is. If Harvey wins or comes close to the top, federal grits wouldn't dream of touching the system for at least a decade.

4. The ALP caucus is notorious for internal feuds, so it will be interesting to see whether or not the defeated candidates take their loss in stride. Hugh MacDonald has already raised doubts about the supporter list (without offering any proof) - if the defeated can't rally behind the winner, they might all find themselves out of work a year from now.

5. Finally, although a Liberal victory in Alberta seems far fetched, fanciful, ridiculous, or any synonym of your choosing, with the divided right the Alberta Liberals will be relevant in the next election. Their level of relevancy remains to be seen, but in an unpredictable election that might very well result in a minority government, it would be foolish not to pay attention to a party almost certain to pick up 20% to 30% of the vote.

I can't say I have a horse in this race. All five candidates bring their own unique set of skills and liabilities to the table. But I'll certainly be watching the result with interest tomorrow.

ALP Leadership Candidate Profiles: The Doctor is in

The Alberta Liberals will be selecting a new leader on September 10th, from among 5 candidates: Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald, Raj Sherman, Bruce Payne, and Bill Harvey. To vote, simply register here as an ALP supporter by August 19th.

Today, the second part of a series profiling the candidates (previously - Bruce Payne).

RAJ SHERMAN



Background: Sherman moved to Canada from India at a young age, and has lived in Edmonton since the 1980s, attending the U of A and then staying to practice as an emergency room doctor. According to his rateMDs reviews, he was a pretty good one (one review states "McDreamy is an understatement"). Sherman took the plunge into elected politics in 2008, riding the Stelmach wave across Edmonton and taking back Edmonton-Meadowlark for the PCs.

So how did the good doctor go from PC backbencher to ALP leadership frontrunner in under a year? Well, it all comes down to his very own Kai Nagata moment last November, when he fired off a late night e-mail to his entire address book slamming the Stelmach government's Health Care record. Suffice to say, that was it for Raj in the PCs, and his move to the Liberals was a natural fit.

Video: I didn't have a chance to video interview Raj during May's ALP convention, but I include a mash-up of Sherman clips from the all-candidates debate conducted that weekend:



Online: Sherman has a fairly standard website, 570 Facebook supporters, and 2000 followers to what is a mostly mundane Twitter feed.

Can he win? I'd peg Raj as the front runner. Despite being a newcomer to the ALP, he has federal Liberal connections and has signed up a slew of new supporters. The big question for Sherman is how successful he'll be outside of Edmonton and how he'll place on the preferential ballot - after all, with 5 strong candidates, it's unlikely this one will be decided on the first ballot.

My Take: I worked with Raj on the Gerard Kennedy campaign in 2006, and he's certainly a likable chap. However, as his departure from PC caucus and subsequent claims of corruption, bribery, and cover-ups in the Health Care system show, Sherman is a loose cannon, prone to firing off in any direction if he gets worked up about an issue.

That, coupled with his lack of political experience, makes him a huge risk. At the same time, there's something to do said for the ALP taking a risk and going with the wild card. Sherman would bring a jolt of energy to a moribund party, and has credibility on the province's number one issue. Although some feel his Health Care focus makes him too one-dimensional, I honestly think Sherman should try to make it a single issue campaign about Health Care if he wins.

The Liberals have been out of power and largely irrelevant for close to a century, so there's something to be said for taking a chance and going all in on the doctor.

This Week in Alberta: The Liberals Land their Man

Maverick MLA Raj Sherman has found a new home with the Alberta Liberals. Sort of. He will sit as an independent Liberal for now, and run under the party's banner in the next election. And, oh yeah, he also announced his candidacy in the ALP leadership race.

For Sherman, it's a logical fit. He's been involved with the federal Liberals in the past. His best chance of re-election in Edmonton-Meadowlark is as a Liberal. He'd already indicated his desire to run for leadership, and the ALP needs a leader.

For the Liberals, there is a risk. I don't think it's fair to call Sherman a "loose cannon", but only because that implies he's tied loosely to the ship. For all intents and purposes, Sherman is a cannon tied to a rabid rhinoceros. He won't tow the party line, he's highly emotional, and he's prone to embelishment and exageration.

Still, he's tough and he's passionate, and is seen as a straight shooter who will fight for better Health Care. So despite the risk, this must still be considered a good catch by the Alberta grits. The party is desperate for media attention and Sherman will provide just that. After losing Dave Taylor, this gives them momentum - after all, it's the first time in over 70 years an MLA has crossed the floor to the Liberals.

It also gives them added credibility on the Health Care file - if Sherman's allegations pan out (still a big "if"). Albertans may not like a lot of things about the Liberals, but many would consider voting Liberal if they saw it as a symbolic vote for better Health Care. The ALP may finally have their wedge issue, and their ticket to relevancy.

This Week in Alberta

2011 is shaping up to be a fun year in Alberta politics, what with the PCs and Liberals both choosing new leaders, and a provincial election looming. That said, I suspect this blog's focus will be shifting to the federal scene for the next six weeks. Call it a hunch.

I will, however, strive to pay attention to the 28 seats up for grabs in Alberta. It's tough to find news when only 1 or 2 seats are in play, but there's always news to be found if you look hard enough. As always, feel free to e-mail me any tips you hear about Alberta campaigns.

With that said, a glance at provincial politics before it gets pushed to the back burner:

1. Raj Sherman is an interesting character. I worked with him back during the 2006 Liberal leadership race, and let's just say I'm not shocked by his actions over the past few months. You'll recall he was punted from the PC caucus back in November after sending his entire address book a typo-laden late night e-mail that was especially critical of Stelmach's performance on Health Care. Since then, Sherman has become a Health Care crusader, raising red flags about problems in the system. His voice was a welcome addition to a debate Alberta sorely needs to have. He'd even mused about running for leadership - he just hadn't decided on which party.

However, it appears the good doctor may have jumped the shark. Last week, Sherman made stunning claims in the legislature about bribery, fraud, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. The problem is, he has been unable to offer up proof, and has since backtracked on many of his wilder accusations. With his credibility taking a hit, it will be interesting to watch what Alberta's maverick MLA does next.


2. Partly due to Sherman's allegations, Ed Stelmach has called an inquiry into Health Care wait times. Consider it a parting gift for his successor.


3. One possible successor is Gary Mar, who is getting ready to declare his candidacy for the PC leadership race.


4. And what of the Wildrose in all of this? Kyle Olsen offers up analysis on their latest householder.


5. One of the newest Wildrosers is former PC Cabmin Lyle Oberg. If you want to see what Lyle and some of his more colourful friends have been up to in Vietnam, then mosey on over to Daveberta.

The Machine Against Raj

Raj Sherman sealed his fate with one click of the "send" button. Ever since his bizarre rant against the Stelmach government was made public last week, his days have appeared numbered. It therefore comes as no surprise that Sherman was booted from the PC caucus today (or, as Raj called it in his typo heavy e-mail, "caucas").

Given what Sherman has had to say about Stelmach and the fact that he tendered his resignation as the Health Minister's Parliamentary Assistant three weeks ago, I doubt either party is shedding many tears over this one.

So what does Sherman's departure mean? Well, in and of itself, he's a relative nobody - but it doesn't bode well for Stelmach that two of his MLAs have been quit/fired after accusing his government of breaking Health Care promises. This, when every indication is the PCs intend to use Health Care as a wedge with the Wildrose Alliance next election.

Alberta politics is traditionally dull during elections...and mind numbingly dull between elections. But since the last election, we've had a good old political jamboree. A PC caucus which won 72 seats in 2008 is now down to 67 MLAs after a by election loss, two defections, and 2 MLA ejections.

To that, you can toss in the surprise election of David Swann as ALP leader (which led to the departure of Dave Taylor) and, of course, the meteoric rise of Danielle Smith (fun fact: Danielle Smith doesn't walk on water, she runs on it!).

So, yeah, fun times. Stay tuned.

This Week in Alberta - Raj Against the Machine

Via Daveberta comes one of the most bizarre e-mails from an elected official ever leaked to the public.

PC MLA Raj Sherman fired off the angry e-mail to Ed Stelmach, felow MLAs, and friends on Wednesday. I repost it here verbatim, in its full glory:

From: Raj Sherman
Date: November 17, 2010 7:29:44 AM MST
To: Ed Stelmech, Gene Zwozdesky , jay ramotar , “fred.horne@assembly.ab.ca” , dave hancock , “ron.glen@gov.ab.ca” , Lloyd Snelgrove , “manmeet.bhullar@assembly.ab.ca” , “peter.sandhu@assembly.ab.ca”, Doug Elniski , “dave.quest@assembly.ab.ca” , “verlyn.olson@assembly.ab.ca” , “ken.allred@assembly.ab.ca” ,”doug.horner@gov.ab.ca”
Cc: “seanflanagan@shaw.ca” , “doctorjohn@shaw.ca” , Lau Huynh , David and Elizabeth Ariano , Robert Terry Kruhlak , “gmeikle@ualberta.ca” , “dalob@shaw.ca” , “pjdelaney60@hotmail.com”, “drpat@mac.com” , “amirza@ualberta.ca” , “dattamed@gmail.com” , David Bond , “bacon@telusplanet.net” , Stan Poplawski , “dneilson@dneilson.com” , Brian Holroyd , Paul Parks, Chris Evans , Ross Purser , “terry.sosnowski@capitalhealth.ca” , “terry.sosnowski@albertahealthservices.ca” , PJ White, Dave Coutts , ‘Uwe Welz’ , sandy gillis
Subject: RE: The Overcrowding Crisis

Dear XXX

Please accept my aoplogies.

I have forwarded many old emails to the current minister and deputy minister to place into context again for the fourth minister, the fourth CEO, and the third deputy minister, the underlying causes of the healthcare system woes leading to the emergency crisis that we have on our hands today (and have had for the past 5-6 years).

Many of the emails received by me as section president and as an elected member of the legislature, from our emergency colleagues, were received in confidence and many wished for me to keep their name out of it for fear of what the government or Capital Health and now AHS would do to our privileges. With AHS’ code of conduct, I did not want to put you or anyone at risk. I am sorry that I did not remember our conversation and your willingness to share your name.

I am whole heartedly in agreement with you. Three weeks ago, I offered the current minister my resignation as the parliametary assistant as I can no longer support the halthcare decisions made by AHS as well as some of those made by our government.

The premier made a promise to the ER doctors in writing and has broken his promise not only to the ER doctors, but also to the seniors, the 1.8 million Albertans who present for emergency care and their 2 million family members, and to all frontline healthcare professionals.

I will be meeting the premier today and my progressive conservative caucas colleagues tomorrow to discuss my future in his government as my trust in him and his cabinet is severly tarnished.

I must thank you for your passion and your rebuke of me (usually, I got heck for not hiding the names. Ask Chris Evans) as well as your courage to put your neck on the line. It’s time that I also take one for my the team that I trust, the front line ER doctors. Please stay tuned for my public comments.

Thank you for reminding me why I ran for public service in the first place!

Dear Political colleagues….meet my lifelong physician colleagues.

Cheers

Raj Sherman
p.s.
I hope that you don’t mind, I will be passing this letter onto my elected colleagues as well.

If it is any consolation, please feel comforted with the fact that I still work on Sundays and see the disaters happening including those of my father where he waits in the emergency room like anyone else….and he has had 5 near death experience this year alone in the emergency departments. A few months ago, his ambulance was diverted from a few blocks near the UofA hospital and he arrived to your emergency department, on the other end of town and had a wonderful tour of South Edmonton when he arrived ashen grey, sweaty, suffocating, with an oxygen saturation of 70% on 16 L of oxygen….and seconds away from death!!! Thanks to the efforts of Dr. Lau Nguyen and the Grey Nuns staff…he lives today, barely!

…and please do NOT feel comforted that healthcare will be any better with AHS’ inadequate plan to deal with the crisis and disasters that we will be facing in the 4 winter months ahead.

…and now, after this email, I will await my rebuke from my political colleagues….geeeeesh…a brown guy just can’t win…As Russel Peter’s says…”SOMEBODY GONNA GET HURT”….LOL…..a little bit of humor into what is a sad and very tragic situation…

Feel free to forward to whomever you wish