Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?

Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there's no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it's impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will look like.

The first problem with any seat projection is that all polls split Alberta into three regions for reporting purposes - Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta. While that's the most logical cut, just as downtown Calgary and suburban Calgary are two very different entities, lumping Red Deer and Peace River into the "rural Alberta" umbrella masks regional trends.

Moreover, the regional sample sizes in these polls are small, carrying large margins of error. It's not at all surprising to see the PCs up by 4 in Calgary Monday morning, but trailing by 14 come dinner time. Yes, it's possible a Wildrose chinook rolled across the city, but it's more likely we're dealing with the effects of small sample sizes and varying methodologies.

But even if we're lucky enough to get completely accurate polls, extrapolating out seat totals is a fool's errand. Seat projections in the last few federal elections have generally worked well, because we've had a good baseline to work with. If the Liberal vote is down 5 points in Ontario from 2008 to 2011, it's not hard to do the math for each riding. However, the Wildrose Alliance was little more than a protest party last time Albertans went to the polls, so it's counter productive to calculate their 2012 support using their 2008 vote. When a party rises from nothingness, it's extremely difficult to predict vote patterns - there's a reason seat projections showed the NDP winning anywhere from 20 to 70 seats in Quebec last spring, and a reason 308.com projects a Wildrose seat range of between 27 and 74 seats.

Toss in wild 4-way splits in Edmonton, incumbency effects, riding redistricting, and a map skewed to favour rural Alberta, and we're dealing with Alberta's most unpredictable election in a long time.

So the bottom line is we don't know what the next legislature will look like, but if the vote stays close, Alberta's first ever minority government is a distinct posibility. So what happens then?

The first thing to consider is the likelihood of defections. A floor crossing epidemic has spread across Alberta in recent years, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a handful of Progressive Conservatives take a step to the right after the election. Few PC MLAs supported Redford when she ran for leader, and she hasn't exactly endeared herself to them over the past month. Many in her caucus share the same Wildrose positions Redford spent the campaign ridiculing, and the prospect of an NDP-supported Redford budget might be too much for them to bear.

Hell, if Smith is only a handful of seats shy of a majority, expect an exodus. PC MLAs have never sat on the opposition benches, and many chose their party colours merely because they saw the PCs as the only avenue to power. It's not like Danielle Smith has her hands full of "Cabinet material" candidates to choose from, so she wouldn't hesitate for a second to offer Cabinet posts to entice one or two Tories across the floor.

But let's assume for a moment that Redford holds the PC ship together - maybe the PCs even find themselves ahead of the Wildrosers. The focus then shifts to the Liberals and NDP, who will likely win 4 to 10 seats between them. The Saskatchewan Liberals found themselves in a similar situation in 1996, and their decision to take Cabinet posts in an NDP government eventually led to the demise of that party. So it was somewhat curious when Liberal leader Raj Sherman began the negotiation process during an online debate yesterday, by asking Smith and Redford if they'd name him Minister of Health.

While I don't think the good doctor will get his wish, nearly everyone I've talked to assumes the PCs would cut some kind of deal with what's left of the left - even if they win fewer seats than the Wildrosers. But I'm not convinced.

The Liberals and NDP have spent decades waiting for the PC empire to crumble and if Smith offers them a deal - say some democratic reform measures and a hold on the more objectionable parts of Wildrose platform - I wouldn't be shocked to see an unholly alliance. After all, seeing the Wildrose Party in power would surely plunge the PCs into infighting and a leadership race.

For the Wildrose Party, the benefits of a deal with the left are obvious - the aforementioned PC chaos, and a chance to govern "non-scarily" thanks to the calming influence of the Liberals and NDP (think Stephen Harper from 2006 to 2011). Keep in mind, Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan has gone on record as stating he saw nothing wrong with Harper's threat to cut a deal with the separatists and socialists in 2004, after winning fewer seats than Paul Martin. Smith sounded like she was laying the groundwork for this type of arrangement during the leaders debate, when she went out of her way to compliment Raj Sherman and talked about how she's been able to work with the NDP in the legislature.

As strange as it may sound, life may soon be imitating the scenes from a satirical 2010 press gallery video, featuring Brian Mason barking orders ("left, left, left") at Danielle Smith and a Wildrose caucus decked out in orange NDP shirts. Hell, the video even features a cameo from then-independent MLA Raj Sherman.

Alberta Votes Day 19: The Morning After

The hype machines were in overdrive for yesterday's Alberta Leaders Debate, but the outcome was similar to most debates: steady but unspectacular performances from all the candidates, with the end result nothing more than re-enforcing existing attitudes. The post-debate Ipsos poll bears that out; when asked who won, 37% opted for Smith, 28% for Redford, 13% for Sherman, and 10% for Mason - similar to the party support levels in most recent polls.

Given she's leading the polls 10 days before the vote, a messy draw was likely good enough for Danielle Smith. If you'd never heard of Danielle Smith before, you'd likely be impressed by her performance - but the woman has been more over hyped than Tim Tebow, and I find her less likable over 90 minutes than in photo ops and sound bytes. There was nothing Laytonesque in her performance, but she gets marks for avoiding the "inside baseball" stuff more than Redford, and framing issues in a way casual voters can understand and relate to.

Alison Redford found herself under attack all night long, even from one of the moderators, Vassy Kepelos, who asked Redford a triple-barrelled question that amounted to "how could anyone in their right mind trust you?". But Redford held her own against each attack, looking very much like a Premier. In most elections, that would be more than enough for the PC leader, but Redford needed to make Danielle Smith look scary, and there was nothing scary about the mostly cheerful Smith who talked about her ability to work with the NDP, and spun Danny Dollars as a way to help the poorest Albertans. Redford failed to land a good soundbyte on conscience rights, and wasted far too much time attacking Smith over trivial insider issues.

Considering Michael Ignatieff made absolutely no headway going after Harper on Carson, Contempt, and Corruption during last May's debate, I don't know what Redford hoped to accomplish by continuing to press Smith over two year old floor crossings. The details are murky enough that it's not a clear cut ethical breach, and even if it were, I can't imagine it would shift a single vote outside of the two ridings in question. With all the things Danielle Smith has written or said in her lifetime, and all the extremist positions her party holds, Redford's inability to land a punch was disappointing.

Raj Sherman was the least polished of the four leaders, and the delivery of his over rehearsed sound bytes was often clunky. Despite the poor style marks, he scored well on content, striking a nice balance between pointing out the conservative nature of the PCs and selling his own party's platform. As expected, he pivoted to Health Care whenever possible, but Sherman held his own on other issues. He did enough to stop the bleeding to the PCs, but I'm skeptical we was compelling enough to win back Redford Liberals.

Brian Mason was the most seasoned debater on stage and looked the most at ease. He played all the NDP greatest hits, promising "results for people" and telling anecdotes of his conversations with Albertans. The only thing missing was a story about him taking Andrea Horwath's son to the emergency room. I suspect a lot of Albertans liked the Brian Mason they saw last night, but I can't imagine he moved many votes. He was short on specifics, and his overall "pro-tax, anti-oilsands" message won't move him far beyond the NDP base.


So where do we go from here?

The debate was a missed opportunity for Redford, leaving her no option but to blanket the Alberta airwaves with anti-Wildrose attack ads. The PC dynasty may be on the way out, but it's going to go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Alberta Votes Day 18: Debate Night in Edmonton

More often than not, the Alberta leader's debate is a mere formality, intended to create a vaneer of democracy in a province where elections tend to be meaningless. It's barely worth watching, because even if someone delivers the mythic "knock out punch", it doesn't affect the election outcome. Hell, had Ed Stelmach literally gone over to Kevin Taft and punched him in the face last debate, it wouldn't have changed much.

From 1997 to 2004, Ralph Klein's debate prep was never more intensive than taking a swig of whiskey before going on stage. In 2008, one of the debate questions was literally "how come none of you are charismatic?", to which Brian Mason gave a memorable - albeit unemotional - "my wife thinks I'm charismatic" rebuttal.

This time, it's different.

Alberta is in the midst of its first competitive election in 19 years, and tonight's debate could very well tip the scales. Three of the four leaders are rookies, and newspaper reporters routinely get Brian Mason's name wrong in stories, so it's not like he's a household name anywhere outside of the Mason household. For all intents and purposes, this will be the first and only chance for the leaders to make an impression.

Global will be airing the debate on the tube and online from 6:30 to 8 mountain time. If you're looking for a good time, the National Post offers a drinking game - for a simpler version, simply take a shot of Big Rock every time you hear the words "conscience rights", "41 years", or "money for nothing".

I'll be live blogging as long as I stay sober, and the following are what I'll be looking for from the party leaders:



She may never have run for an office higher than School Board Trustee, but Danielle Smith enters this debate as the favourite. She's photogenic, well spoken, and knows a thing or two about how to act in front of a TV camera.

Of course, most voters have likely gotten to know Smith through carefully orchestrated photo ops and sound bytes. Her challenge is therefore to remain likable for the full hour and a half. If she can accomplish that, the substance of the debate will be largely meaningless. So long as Smith doesn't look like the extremist Redford paints her out to be, the election is hers for the taking.



Alison Redford's gutsy debate performance 3 days before the PC leadership vote, in the wake of her mother's passing, likely won her that contest. It will take an equally impressive performance tonight for her to save the 41 year old PC dynasty (41 years - take a drink!).

Unlike Smith, who can win on style marks, Redford will need good content scores to take this one. And therein lies the problem. She must paint the Wildrose Party as extremists...for holding the same views as many in her caucus. She must woe Liberal and NDP voters worried about Smith, all the while reassuring conservatives she bleeds blue. She must present herself as an agent of change, yet make the case that Alberta can't afford the type of change the Wildrose Party is offering.

She will be forced to defend the PC record, but must brush off attacks over PC scandal. She will make the case for increased spending on health care and education, but will warn that Danielle Smith's numbers don't add up.

Redford is juggling a dozen balls in the air. If she pulls it off, she's going to impress a lot of people, but it's far more likely they'll all come crashing down on live TV.



Raj Sherman is likely the least polished of the four leaders, but he does project a certain amount of genuineness - especially when talking about Health Care. Expect Sherman to stay in his wheelhouse tonight, using Health Care to define himself (as a former ER doctor) and attack the PCs (over corruption and mismanagement). If you're placing bets, there's a 1 in 15 chance he'll show up to the debate wearing scrubs.

With Redford looking to her right, Sherman is unlikely to face the same "tax and spend" and "NEP" attacks as his predecessors. The challenge for this former Tory MLA lies in recapturing the Liberal base, as most polls have Liberal support cut in half from their 1997-2008 levels. With this in mind, he should not be afraid to rally progressives behind the Liberals' "tax the rich to pay for health and education" platform.

The risk he faces is that many Liberals may reluctantly back the evil empire, to stop the Wildrosers. For all intents and purposes, any attack on Smith tonight is a de facto attack on himself.



Brian Mason faces the least pressure of any leader, since the rise of the Wildrose does little to alter his message. He doesn't have the same balancing act as the other leaders, and can speak directly to his base of Edmontonians who get off on recycling.

Mason will therefore read from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook, arguing the other three parties are all the same. The over/under on the number of times he refers to Raj Sherman as "a former conservative" has been set at 4.5 for the night.

Alberta Votes

The writ has been dropped, and Albertans will go to the polls on April 23. The past few years have been wildly turbulent, with shocking municipal votes, the rise of the Wildrose, parties desanctioned and founded, leadership races in nearly every party (2 for the Liberals), and floor crosings aplenty. Despite this, the PCs are expected to win a 12th consecutive majority government. It is, after all, still Alberta.

If the election has prompted you to look in on Alberta politics for the first time in a while, the following overview should give you the background you need to keep score at home.


Alison Redford and the PCs

Redford stunned everyone with her come-from-behind win in last Fall's PC leadership race, despite trailing Gary Marr 41% to 19% after the first round of voting. That leadership contest was triggered by Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation, when the Premier was gently pushed aside over concerns about his electability - Stelmach you'll recall, was only able to win 72 of 83 seats in his first election as party leader in 2008.

Redford is seen as being squarely on the left of the PC Party, and was once called a "feminist lawyer" by Rob Anders. her leadership campaign focused on health care and education, targeting female voters. It should therefore come as no surprise that the Alberta Liberals have taken a hit in the polls since Redford's ascension to power.

Redford has remained popular since winning the leadership, but has proven to be one of the least exciting Premier's in the province's history. Not so much in terms of personality (no one could match her predecessor there), but in terms of content. She kind of kept her fixed election date promise, by giving herself a three month election window. She kind of kept her promise to hold an independent judicial inquiry into the health care system, but limited the mandate. Her budget was popular, but painfully cautious. There have been a few missteps and scandlettes, but even they have been boring (Gary Mar's post-leadership fundraising letter mentioned his position as ambassador...zzzzzz....).

She might as well be running on a slogan of "Meh. Why not?".

Election Strategy: The PCs have used a tagline of "Danielle Smith: Not Worth the Risk" in early attack ads, promoting the stability offered by the PCs - after all, what's more stable than a 40 year old government?

This stalking horse also serves to frame the election as a Wildrose-PC showdown, in a bid to scare "Redford Liberals" into voting PC and making disgruntled conservatives think twice about casting a protest vote for the Wildrose. Expect reports aplenty of "anonymous Conservatives" worried about a Wildrose victory - even if they're comfortably ahead in the polls.

Policy: I wouldn't hold my breath expecting anything bold from Redford. No new taxes, a little bit of money for Health Care, a little bit of money for feel good programs, and a little bit of...hey look over there at the Wildrose Party!



Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party

Danielle Smith was the golden girl of Alberta politics for a two year stretch, starting in the summer of 2009. She was the subject of countless "hey, let's see if anything interesting is happening in Alberta" political profiles by the national press, and the local media treated her like she walked on water. Then Alison Redford came along and now the only time the media talks about Smith is when they're chuckling over her bus.

Even if Smith can't lead the Wildrose Party to the promised land, the mere fact that we're talking about this possibility is quite the accomplishment. Dozens of right wing parties have come and gone in Alberta over the years, but none have ever moved beyond fringe status. While some of the Wildrose's success is no doubt due to the shortcomings of the PCs, I suspect at least half their votes are driven by Smith herself.

Strategy: The biggest asset the Wildrose Party has is Danielle Smith. If I were running the campaign, I'd make the election all about her and use a lot of flowery language about "change" and the "potential of Alberta". Instead, my suspicion is campaign manager Tom Flanagan is planing a nasty campaign which will be all about Alison Redford. I recognize there's a need to define your opponent, but I think there's a greater need to define Smith as something more than an angry outsider.

That said, if you're going to attack Redford, the best issue to go at her on is probably the revelation that PC MLAs were paid thousands to sit on a government committee which never met. It's a simple message anyone can understand, and it speaks to government entitlement and waste - a good wedge issue for the Wildrosers.

Just don't go overboard on it. Like I said - the focus should be on Danielle.

Policy: Think of the early Reform Party - a lot of talk about reducing spending, a splash of democratic reform, and avoid talking about social issues as much as possible. Given Alberta's flirtations with private health care over the years, it will be interesting to see if Smith dares go down that road. Either way, Health Care will be a dicey issue for her, since it's nearly impossible for the Wildrose Party to meet its targeted spending cuts without axing something from the Health Care budget.


Raj Sherman and the Alberta Liberal Party

The PCs are led by a woman many have accused of being a "closet Liberal". The Liberals? They have a former PC in charge.

Sherman's story is an odd one. After being elected as a PC in 2008 and named Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Health, Sherman was fired in 2010 after sending off a late night e-mail to his entire address book, blasting Ed Stelmach's performance on the Health Care file. Since then, he has raised shocking claims about inefficiency, intimidation, and corruption in the Health system. Depending on who you ask, he's either a Health Care crusader or a crazy person.

Strategy: If the election gets framed as a Smith/Redford showdown, the Liberals are going to get squeezed down to a handful of ridings. And truth be told, there's probably not much they can do to prevent that at this point.

My advice would be to make the election all about Health Care - it's the one area where Sherman and the ALP have credibility and it's an important issue to voters. The Liberals may be fighting for media attention this campaign so they need to be focused, and Health Care is the smartest issue for them to be talking about.

Although they've now signed a deal, it likely helps that the Alberta Medical Association spent much of the past month running newspaper ads criticizing Redford's Health Care record.

Policy: The Liberals have released a relatively bold platform, funded by a proposed tax increase on the richest Albertans and businesses. Among their promises is a move towards free tuition, which should help the party hold their University ridings.


Brian Mason and the NDP

The NDP passed the Liberals federally in Alberta in 2008, and beat them by a 2:1 ratio there in 2011. Those results, coupled with positive polling numbers lead many to believe the NDP can vault ahead of the provincial Grits this campaign.

Somewhat surprisingly, Mason is the only leader back from the 2008 election. Despite the mustache, no one will mistake him for Jack Layton, but Mason is an underrated politician, capable of staying on message and delivering a good sound byte.

Strategy: NDP support remains concentrated in Edmonton, so that's where they'll spend the bulk of their time. Their message will likely be from the traditional NDP "kitchen table" cookbook.

Policy: With the Alberta Green Party desanctioned, the NDP have "gone green", right down to the colour palette on their website. Their four priorities include a "green energy plan" and "full value royalties", so they aren't afraid to go after big oil.


Glen Taylor and the Alberta Party

A year ago, the Alberta Party was making waves inside the political bubble - their messaging was solid, many of their key organizers had tasty victory with the Nenshi campaign, and they'd lured over ex-Liberal MLA Dave Taylor. However, like most internet fads, this one has faded, never really catching on with the public.

The Alberta Party will run around 30-40 candidates, with Taylor their only realistic hope (Glen that is, Dave isn't running). I'd put the over/under on their province-wide support at around 2%.

Strategy: Getting into the debates would be a huge boost for the Alberta Party, but this seems unlikely. Without that exposure, they'll need to rely on their strong online presence to get their message out.

Policy: They're big on #listening. You can check out their platform here.

A Beginner's Guide to Alberta Politics, or, "What the @$#! is going on in Alberta?"

Like an oil reserve, Alberta politics tends to lie dormant for thousands of years, only to gush to the surface without warning. And when it does, it's usually messy.

Like the last two weeks.

For those of you lucky enough to not follow Alberta politics, it must have all seemed rather perplexing. A caucus coup against a Premier coming off a landslide victory last election. The Premier and Finance Minister both resigning in the span of 48 hours...Only to be followed by the leader of the opposition less than a week later. Hell, it was perplexing to even Alberta's most rabid political junkies.

So, for those of you in other parts of the country, I do my best here to summarize last week's political geyser with this helpful FAQ.


Last time I checked Ralph Klein was Premier. Who's this new guy?

Ed Stelmach won the PC leadership on the same day and in the same way Stephane Dion won the LPC leadership. Ted Morton and Jim Dinning had spent all of 2006 hitting each other over the head, so Ed Stelmach took his 15% of vote and came up the middle as the compromise candidate. PC members were so sick of the frontrunners that they didn't worry much about Ed's vision (or lack thereof) or his ability to communicate with other human beings (or lack thereof).

After that, the Calgary media ripped him apart for a year, Dave Bronconnier went all Danny Williams on his ass, and voters humbled Ed in a by election.

Not that it mattered. Alberta being Alberta, and Ed being a Conservative, he won a staggering 72 of 83 seats, 10 more than Ralph Klein left him. Maybe seeing that a guy like Ed could be Premier made voters feel better about themselves. Maybe he won on the strength of the insomniac vote, thankful for the cure his speeches offered them. For whatever reason, Ed appealed to voters and Ed won. It's hard to argue with success.

Unless, of course, you're the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.


So why do they want him out?

There are two competing theories. One is that the PCs are scared stiff of the Wildrose Alliance, a party with only 5% of the seats in the legislature but 80% of the media coverage in the province. Even though the Wildrose Alliance has never won a seat in a general election, Alberta has a history of new parties wiping out dynasties in the blink of an eye. A lot of PC MLAs now gaze longingly at the great right hope, Ted Morton, to ensure the dynasty lives on.

The other theory is that the PCs have been in power for so long they don't worry about the things most other parties worry about - like winning elections. Instead, it's all about internal power struggles. It's no secret the PC power brokers don't like Ed Stelmach. They've been waiting to drop him since he won and were the only people more disappointed with the last election results than Alberta Liberals. So when they saw an opening to defenestrate Ed, they didn't hesitate.

Regardless of the reason, Ed was pressured to quit. His Finance Minister and heir apparent, Ted Morton, said he'd quit if Stelmach made him deliver the budget. (I'm not sure if Morton really understood the responsibilities of being Finance Minister when he took the job)

Jean Chretien or Ralph Klein would have snarled, fired Morton, and fought on. Ed quit.


Woah, woah, easy there partner. Wildrose what? Who are these guys?

The Alberta Alliance was a protest party that won 1 seat in the 2004 election. They merged with the Wildrose Party (another protest party) before the 2008 election to avoid the vote split...and won 0 seats.

Then, in 2009, things changed. The PCs tabled Alberta's first deficit in 15 years. People began talking about the Wildrose Alliance. When Danielle Smith was named leader, they really started talking about the Wildrose Alliance.

Although a political rookie, Smith is smart, well spoken, and media savvy. Of course, it's hard for her not to impress when compared to the current crop of provincial party leaders - even the Oilers would look good lined up against a Bantam hockey team.

So the Alliance won the Calgary Glenmore by election. They showed they were different from the PCs by adding a PC cast-off and a pair of disgruntled PC back benchers. There may only be 4 Wildrose MLAs, but they have the 67-member PC caucus scared stiff.

In their current form, it's easiest to think of the Wildrose Alliance as an Alberta version of the ADQ - a charismatic leader in charge of an untested party with some very questionable policies. Luckily for Danielle Smith, the only policy the media seem interested in asking her about is her policy of "being awesome". She might be in trouble if they start asking about Health Care cuts.


A right wing vote split must be manna from heaven for the Liberals. Are they poised to form government?

Errr...


I mean, running against a pair of far right wingers like Danielle Smith and Ted Morton - that's a political double rainbow if I ever saw one. It seems impossible to mess up a gift like that.

Ummm...


So, yeah, with everything coming up roses, why did their leader quit?

Basically, the same reason Ed did. People got spooked by lackluster poll results, and the leader couldn't control an unruly caucus.


And the Alberta Party, what's their deal?

The Alberta Party came into existence last year when progressives, worried that a right-wing vote split might cause them to stumble into power for the first time in 90 years, decided to found another party.

Alberta Party turn ons include "listening" and "Twitter", and their turn offs include "politics as usual" and "explaining what politics as usual actually means".

They are made up of a loose coalition of Albertans disillusioned with the province's major parties and disgruntled Liberals who feel "Do you support Alberta?" is an easier door knocking pitch than "So how about that NEP, eh?".

They're still in the embryonic stage but in Alberta we believe political life begins at conception or, at the very least, your first floor crossing. And they got their first last week - Dave Taylor, a former Liberal MLA, who had grown disenchanted with the Alberta Liberals' policy of not picking Dave Taylor as their leader.

They are very much a wild card at this point.


And what about the NDP? Where do they figure into the current political landscape?

Good question.


And the Greens?

They were desanctioned after the last election, so they're basically about as relevant now as the NDP.


Desanctioned?

That's what happens when you try to stick up for the environment in Alberta.

There is, however, a movement afoot to create a new Green Party, called Vision 2012. Because after all, the one thing missing in Alberta is a 4th opposition party to left of the PCs. At the rate we're going, there will be more parties than voters by the next election.


So what happens now?

Ted Morton will run for the PC leadership. Morton, who brought in Alberta's first deficit budget in a generation, is expected to position himself as the only candidate fiscally conservative enough to stop the Wildrose Alliance. Assuming he avoids the fate of every other front runner in every leadership contest fought in Canada and around the world over the past decade, he will win.


And when is the next election again? I assume that Alberta, being Canada's bastion of democratic reform, has fixed election dates, right?

Ha ha ha. Good one.

Expect an election roughly 60 days after the first poll of 2012 which shows the PCs more than 12 points up on the Wildrosers.


And who will win?

The smart money is on the PC dynasty surviving into its 40s, but for the first time since 1993 we may actually have to wait until the election before calling it. Hell, if we're lucky, the campaign might actually be worth watching.



MEET THE KEY PLAYERS



Ed Stelmach enjoys a lighter moment at his farewell news conference



Danielle Smith not only walks on water, she runs on it!



Ted Morton is likely to be Alberta's next Premier. He's a University professor who thinks he's a cowboy.



David Swann is the most genuine and honest human being on the face of the earth. So, of course, he was doomed from the start.



This is NDP leader Brian Mason. You will never see or hear about him again as long as you live, so don't feel bad if you forget his name. Hell, it even happens to the Premier sometimes.


Reports are Dave Taylor will simply create "The Dave Taylor Party" should he not win the Alberta Party leadership.

No Matter How You Slice It...

'tis the season for eternal optimism:

CALGARY - They haven't elected a Calgary MLA for two decades and only snared one per cent of the vote in a recent city byelection, but NDP Leader Brian Mason remains optimistic his party can make a breakthrough in the heart of Conservative country.

Mason believes the redrawing of electoral boundaries for an expected 2012 election -- as well as adding four seats to the legislature, including potentially a few in Calgary -- could be a boon to the NDP.

In the last election, the NDP cracked 10% of the vote in two Calgary ridings, picking up 13% in Calgary North Hill and 14% in Calgary Fort.

So, for any aspiring gerrymanderers out there, the challenge is to divide up the Calgary map so that the Dippers win a seat in Calgary.

Alberta Votes 2008: The Ed-Files Election

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. OK, it was just the worst of times. Once the dust settled, Ed Stelmach had won a mind-boggling 72 seats, silencing his critics inside and outside the party. Here are the highlights of this blog's election coverage - a campaign which, despite the result, I really had a good time blogging about.

Alberta Votes Preview
Week 1 in Review
Returning Officer Scandal
Week 2 in Review
Rotten Tories.ca
Debate Live Blogging
Week 3 in Review
Week 4 in Review
AYL ad campaign
My Predictions

Election Night Reaction
Where do we go from here?