Alberta 2011 in Review

One of my favourite sayings is "If you don't like the weather in Alberta, wait 30 minutes. If you don't like the politicians, wait 30 years." However, the sleepy world of Alberta politics has come alive in recent years and 2011 was no exception.

A year ago, Ed Stelmach was Premier, Ted Morton was his Finance Minister and heir apparent, and David Swann was the leader of the opposition. Today, "feminist lawyer" Alison Redford is Premier and former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman leads the Liberals. Perhaps most shockingly of all, NDP leader Brian Mason shaved his stache.

So for those who haven't been paying attention to Alberta politics, here's what you missed in 2011.


Ed Stelmach and his wife share a lighter moment at his resignation press conference.

The PCs 2011 Year in Review

At the start of 2011, the PCs were leading the polls and nearing their 40th consecutive year in power. Ed Stelmach had won 72 seats in his first election as leader, a 10-seat improvement over Ralph Klein. So, of course, he had to go.

On January 25th, admid rumours of internal dissention, Ed Stelmach resigned as Premier.

Two days later, Ted Morton resigned as Finance Minister, refusing to bring in a deficit budget. Well, another deficit budget - Ted had run a $5 billion deficit as Finance Minister in 2010. Oh, and during the 2011 leadership race he promised to balance the books in 2013 - the exact same pledge as in the budget he refused to deliver.

Despite high expectations, Morton's leadership campaign lumbered along to a disappointing fourth place finish. Some chalk this off to Morton's supporters having already left for the Wildrose Alliance, but I see it as voters punishing Morton for his inability to follow up his 2006 hit, Ted Morton is the man, with a new theme song.

Instead, Gary Mar emerged as the frontrunner, scoring endorsement after endorsement, and leading Alison Redford 41% to 19% after the first ballot. Mar had it in the bag, but then women, teachers, and other left wing pinkos stormed the ballot box for the second round of voting. When the dust settled, Redford was Premier and Gary Mar was lamenting the cruelty of the PC leadership rules over a beer with Jim Dinning.

After her victory, Redford named a Cabinet, cancelled then un-cancelled the fall sitting of the legislature, and kind of kept her fixed election date promise. That may not sound like a lot, but Redford spent a great deal of time "being awesome".

As 2012 begins, Redford is still very much in the honeymoon phase. Liberals are happy that Alberta has its first liberal Premier in 90 years. Conservatives are happy that they're at 51% in the polls. Yes, everyone is happy - except for...


Get with the media narrative people! Danielle Smith is, like, so 2010.

Wildrose Party 2011 in Review

For Danielle Smith, 2011 was a harsh dose of reality. She started the year as a media darling both inside and outside Alberta. Newspapers would routinely profile her under headlines like "Danielle Smith doesn't walk on water - she runs on it!" or "Danielle Smith: Great politician or the greatest politician?". Yes, she led a party which had received 7% of the vote last election, had changed it's name 3 times in as many years, and had 4 castoff MLAs. But her midichlorian count was off the charts - she was universally seen as the chosen one who would bring balance to Alberta politics.

Politics is often compared to High School and from 2009 to 2010, Danielle was the most popular girl in school. Why was she popular? Because she was cool. Why was she cool? If you're asking, that's a sign you're not cool.

But then the new girl showed up and Danielle was, like, so 2010. So how did Danielle respond? She started spreading rumours about Alison. Not cool.

So the Wildrose doesn't smell quite as sweet as it did in 2010. Still, it could be worse. Which brings us to...


Possible election slogan: Raj Against the PC Machine

The Liberal Party 2011 in Review

I usually describe David Swann to non-Albertans as "a less charismatic version of Stephane Dion". That's likely mean but, as the federal grits learned this spring, they could do a lot worse than Stephane Dion. The provincial Liberals may learn the same lesson in 2012.

After dumping Swann, the Liberals went out a replaced him with former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman - presumably on the assumption that what Albertans are looking for is a PC leader...only with NEP baggage.

Sherman is a colourful character. The former medical doctor was elected to the PCs in 2008, then was quit/fired in 2010 after sending off a late night angry e-mail to Ed Stelmach and 40 of his closest friends, where he railed against Stelmach's health care record. (Possible PC commercial in next campaign - "When the phone rings at 3 am...it's probably Raj Sherman calling")

Since then, Sherman has raised the spectre of scandal, bribery, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. At times, he sounds like a Health Care crusader. At times, he sounds like Oscar Fech. Sherman is very much a wild card.

It's hard to say how he'll play with the public, but after a string of dull-as-paint leaders, no one will accuse the Liberals of being boring next election. Which is more than can be said for...


Unlike "mainstream" parties who try to "get votes", the Alberta Party is "doing politics differently".

The Alberta Party 2011 in Review

Much like Rebecca Black, the Alberta Party burst onto the scene early in 2011 as an Internet sensation.

Like most internet memes, this one appears to have been mostly fleeting. Sure, there were highlights in 2011 - Dave Taylor, frustrated with the Liberals' policy of not electing him Liberal Leader, become the first Alberta Party MLA in January. And there was the day in March they got 47 re-tweets. But despite those bright moments, the only media attention on the Alberta Party of late has been "what happened to the Alberta Party" stories.

So how did it all go wrong? Many blame Glenn Taylor, who was named leader in May, after a lackluster leadership campaign. (fun fact: the Alberta Party has 3,169 followers on Twitter, but just 1,200 voted in its leadership race)

I see the Alberta Party problem more as one of "supply and demand" than anything else. Alberta politics needs a third party left of the PCs about as much as federal politics needs a third communist party. Yeah, neither the Marxist-Leninists nor the Communist Party have been very effective, but would a tech savvy, well branded "Workers Revolution Party" do much better? Likely not.



PS. Technically speaking, the NDP are also a political party in Alberta.

This Week in Alberta - Jumping the Queue

Stephen Duckett (AKA Cookie Monster) has raised a stir by suggesting some politically connected individuals receive preferential treatment in Alberta's Health Care system, and are able to jump the queue.

The PCs have generally shrugged this one off, like most accusations against their government, but there has been one notable exception - leadership candidate Allison Redford, who has joined the call of the opposition parties and editorials for a public inquiry.


ALSO IN THE NEWS...

- The Alberta Liberals signed up 1,000 new supporters in the first week of their new open primary style membership system. And now, Alf Apps is talking about the federal Liberals doing the same thing.

- Ed Stelmach remains unpopular. But his numbers are improving.

This Week in Alberta

2011 is shaping up to be a fun year in Alberta politics, what with the PCs and Liberals both choosing new leaders, and a provincial election looming. That said, I suspect this blog's focus will be shifting to the federal scene for the next six weeks. Call it a hunch.

I will, however, strive to pay attention to the 28 seats up for grabs in Alberta. It's tough to find news when only 1 or 2 seats are in play, but there's always news to be found if you look hard enough. As always, feel free to e-mail me any tips you hear about Alberta campaigns.

With that said, a glance at provincial politics before it gets pushed to the back burner:

1. Raj Sherman is an interesting character. I worked with him back during the 2006 Liberal leadership race, and let's just say I'm not shocked by his actions over the past few months. You'll recall he was punted from the PC caucus back in November after sending his entire address book a typo-laden late night e-mail that was especially critical of Stelmach's performance on Health Care. Since then, Sherman has become a Health Care crusader, raising red flags about problems in the system. His voice was a welcome addition to a debate Alberta sorely needs to have. He'd even mused about running for leadership - he just hadn't decided on which party.

However, it appears the good doctor may have jumped the shark. Last week, Sherman made stunning claims in the legislature about bribery, fraud, and coverups in Alberta's Health Care system. The problem is, he has been unable to offer up proof, and has since backtracked on many of his wilder accusations. With his credibility taking a hit, it will be interesting to watch what Alberta's maverick MLA does next.


2. Partly due to Sherman's allegations, Ed Stelmach has called an inquiry into Health Care wait times. Consider it a parting gift for his successor.


3. One possible successor is Gary Mar, who is getting ready to declare his candidacy for the PC leadership race.


4. And what of the Wildrose in all of this? Kyle Olsen offers up analysis on their latest householder.


5. One of the newest Wildrosers is former PC Cabmin Lyle Oberg. If you want to see what Lyle and some of his more colourful friends have been up to in Vietnam, then mosey on over to Daveberta.

This Week in Alberta: Polling Numbers

A round up of recent news stories from Alberta:


1. The Wildrose Alliance have had their first semi-public internal party dust up, over the Little Bow nomination. While this certainly isn't good news by any means, it does show that a Wildrose nomination is now worth fighting over. The airing of internal party dirty laundry on the Internet is really just a coming of age ritual for political parties.


2. Justin Archer pens a guest post over at Daveberta on an Alberta Liberal's perspective of the Alberta Party. By and large, I tend to agree with Justin. Personally, I think the best bet would have been to blow up the ALP after the last election and start fresh - a new name, new members, an outsider in charge. If done correctly, the new party could very well have capitalized on a lot of the anti-Stelmach feelings Danielle Smith has instead lassoed. I'm a Liberal but that means I'm also a pragmatist, so I'm by no means one of these "we've lost as Liberals for 80 years and dammit, I'm ready to lose as Liberals for another 80" people.

But because I'm a pragmatist, I just don't see the Alberta Party being able to suck up enough oxygen to survive, so long as the ALP lives. It's always great to have more options, and I'm sure they'll appeal to a lot of former Green voters, but the party is basically advocating Liberal policies, and I'm skeptical this movement will accomplish much more than wounding the ALP (more so in the form of lost volunteers than lost votes).


3. An Environics poll is out, with the Liberals down slightly and the Wildrose up slightly from May:

PC 34%
WRA 32%
ALP 19%
NDP 13%

Most notably, the poll shows the Wildrose on the rise in Edmonton which is probably the one consolation the Liberals can take from these numbers - after all, a split right wing vote in Calgary and Edmonton means they'll pick up seats so long as they get their act together.

AlbertaVote has done up a seat projection which shows the PCs with a slim majority (45 seats), the Alliance a strong second (32 seats), and the ALP (5 seats) and NDP (3 seats) taking just a handful of seats.

Although I enjoy a good seat projection as much as the next statistical/political nerd, I'd be really cautious about extrapolating out these poll results into seats. And not just because we're only talking about 200-300 decided voters in each region. The big problem is the emergence of the Wildrose Alliance is such a wild card that you can't expect vote patterns to shift normally.

But hey, a little unpredictability in Alberta politics is a refreshing change.

This Week in Alberta - Behind the Numbers

It turns out the polling presentation made to the PC campaign committee at their AGM last weekend has been left on a public server. Oops.

Mind you, given the numbers are fairly flattering to Stelmach and don't reveal much about PC strategy or messaging, I suspect this may have been a somewhat intentional "accident". Still, it's worth taking a look, if only because we rarely see this level of in-depth polling data about Alberta in the public domain.


VOTE

The PCs already leaked the vote numbers, and why wouldn't they? They show Alberta's natural governing party leading the Wildrose Alliance 40% to 26%, an improvement from their 36% to 29% lead in June. Still, as the leaked presentation shows, the vote question asked about "local candidates" rather than naming the party leaders. I suspect the gap would be narrower had the vote question been on "the PCs led by Ed Stelmach, the Wildrose Alliance led by Danielle Smith, etc etc".

Regardless, the regional splits are the interesting ones here - given the small sample sizes we're dealing with, I averaged the June and October numbers together:

Calgary: WRA 36%, PC 32%, ALP 23%, NDP 6%
Edmonton: PC 42%, ALP 22%, NDP 18%, WRA 16%
Rural: PC 40%, WRA 30%, ALP 16%, NDP 10%

So long as the PCs continue to hold a firm grip on Edmonton, they'll stay in power, with the only question being "minority or majority". But if we ever see the Liberals and NDP return to their '04 numbers in Redmonton, then watch out - we've actually got a contest.


LEADERS

The take home message here is that Stelmach is still a drag on the PC brand, but not enough to drag them out of power - yet:

Stelmach: 43% favourable, 38% unfavourable (9% unfamiliar)
Smith: 30% favourable, 10% unfavourable (51% unfamiliar)
Mason: 24% favourable, 16% unfavourable (48% unfamiliar)
Swann: 17% favourable, 17% unfavourable (57% unfamiliar)

This is a big jump for Stelmach since June when close to half (47%) the province was unfavourable towards the big guy. Still, he's clearly a negative to the brand - 33% of Albertans say the PCs are the most competent party whereas only 23% say Stelmach is the most competent leader. I suspect we'd see a similar 10-point Ed-drag across most attributes.

Stelmach's biggest asset appears to be the "regular person" label, though I guess it depends if people think he's "a regular guy who is in way over his head when it comes to running a province" or "a regular guy like Ralph".

Half of Albertans still don't have an opinion on Danielle Smith - somewhat surprisingly given the media love-in she's enjoyed. This lack of awareness is clearly hurting her on some of the head-to-head leadership comparisons in the survey. But, man, if she can keep that 3-to-1 ratio of like-to-dislike when Albertans do become familiar with her, she'll be the next Premier. No question about it.

And before people jump on the Liberals, the survey refered to their leader as "Dr. David Swann". To me, that completely biases the respondent and (I would hope) the grits are smart enough not to be slapping the "Dr." on their campaign signs in 2012.


THE NEXT ELECTION

The most interesting part of this survey to me was the relative areas of strength between the PCs and the WRA. I'd assumed one of the biggest selling points of the Wildrose Alliance was the "balancing the books" argument. Yet, when asked which party is the most financially responsible, the PCs beat the WRA by a 3-to-1 ratio (32% to 10%). Even the tax-and-spend Liberals and that dang Dr. Swann are judged better money managers than the Wildrose Alliance.

Rather, where the Alliance seems to be connecting is at a more emotional, personal level. When asked about "values", the PCs only lead 27% to 21% - by far, the closest of the head-to-head attributes measured. And when the leaders are put head-to-head, Stelmach fares worst on the "caring" questions - "cares about the problems in my community", "cares about people like me", and "listens and responds to the views of others".

To me, this means the Danielle Smith Party has not surged because the PCs are "spending like Liberals". Rather, people see the PCs as an out of touch government which does not listen to, or care about, common Albertans.

And if that's true, it's actually good news for all the parties. It's good news for the WRA because they're strong on the "shares my values" question and that's one of the most powerful vote drivers in all of politics. It's good news for the Liberals because it means the WRA haven't surged on ideology (where the ALP can't compete with them) but rather on emotion (where they can). And it's good news for the PCs because, ironically enough, the largest strength of an otherwise dud of a leader is that people see him as the "common man" - the perfect counter to arguments their 40 year old government is out of touch.

Monday Quick Hits

1. The Hill Times has released their annual MP survey. John Baird and Bob Rae do well in the more meaningful categories, while Rona Ambrose and Pablo Rodriguez continue their dominance in the "best hair" category. Rona is also on top for sexiest woman, with Helena and Ruby falling off the list after a difficult year. For the men, Peter McKay held off a challenge from the "hippest MP", Justin Trudeau, to defend his crown.


2. In other polling news, the latest from Environics shows few changes in Alberta since March:

PC 34% (nc)
WAP 28% (-2%)
ALP 23% (nc)
NDP 12% (+2%)

They do some seat projections that show the PCs with a razor-thin majority but, for the life of me, I'm not sure how you can do a credible seat projection when a party rises from obscurity to second place.


3. In Quebec, the news is less rosy for the incumbent:

PQ 40%
Lib 31%
ADQ 8%
QS 8%
Green 7%

With the PQ up 48% to 22% among francophone voters, they're squarely in majority territory. We're still a ways off from an election but the federal parties should at least start thinking about the implications of having a separatist government in Quebec in a few years.


4. Speaking of which, a regular reader is looking to give away a pair of hardcover Rene Levesque biographies - Memories and My Quebec. If you're in Calgary you can pick them up, otherwise you can send cash for postage. If you're interest, drop me an e-mail and I'll get you in touch.

Bag O Links

1. This very cool site tracks polls, projections, and betting lines on the British election. (hat tip Coyne)


2. This nagging case of Jaffergis has become more annoying than a cold you can't shake, but for those interested, the latest is that the Tories don't want her to run again. Gee, you think?


3. Daveberta recaps the spring session of the Alberta legislature now that school is out for the summer.


4. Je suis un peu tard to the party on this one, but I firmly disagree with Ignatieff's decision to support the private members bill requiring Supreme Court Judges to be bilingual in English and French. Since the bill has passed third reading in the House, Rob Silver raises the delicious possibility of Harper calling on the unelected and undemocratic senate to kill it.


5. Over at PuckProb, I've updated the playoff probabilities and have a post up on the odds of coming back from a 3-1 series deficit.

This Week in Alberta - Police Raid Tory HQ!

Well, not exactly - but close!


1. It came out a few days ago that the RCMP raided Alberta's Justice Department last July, looking for proof of a forged document that had been entered into evidence at an earlier inquiry. Also:

According to Moore's sworn statement, the Department of Infrastructure freedom of information officer who was handling The Journal's access to information request told police she was directed not to release the politically embarrassing flight log records until after the election. The warrant also alleges a Department of Infrastructure IT staffer, who tried to discover how the e-mail was altered technically, was ordered to stop his investigations by a senior department bureaucrat.

2. Since I missed "this week in Alberta" last week, here's another blogger's week-in-review.


3. The Liberals muse about changing their name. Like the idea or not, I have a hard time seeing this one get the 75% vote it would need at an ALP convention to pass. But hell, at least it beats the annual 2 hour debate on the price of membership!


4. Earlier this month, David Swann shuffled his shadow Cabinet, naming Laurie Blakeman deputy leader and Dave Taylor Finance critic. This prompted the super-awesome suggestion by Daveberta that the ALP name critics who are not currently in caucus.

Think about it. Your critics are already doing the job of 3, due to a small caucus. And naming critics from outside caucus would be a great way to showcase future candidates, and give the party a voice in rural Alberta (where I presume several of the critics would come from).

This Week in Alberta: On the Ground Edition

I'm back from snowy Alberta, so here's a quick rundown what's new in wild rose country strong and free Alberta:


1. The Edmonton Journal has taken a page from the Hill Times with their annual MLA survey. Given the dearth of political intrigue in Alberta, finding out who the sexiest MLAs are is about as consequential as Alberta politics gets these days. Best hair, rudest, and all the other fun categories can be found here.

MLAs were also asked what superhero Ed Stelmach reminds them of - and Superman got the most votes (dear MLAs: seriously?). I'd be hesitant to pick a single superhero, but comparing Ed to Heroes might not be a bad idea given the convoluted and incomprehensible plot lines we've seen from that show this season.


2. Speaking of superheroes, what do Ralph Klein and the Joker have in common? (answer - and Dark Knight spoiler - at the end)


3. Also offering up an MLA report card is Daveberta.


4. New to the Alberta blog scene is Tiny Perfect. Tiny is a Dipper from Edmonton (as if there were any other kind of Alberta Dipper), and gets a hat tip for my next, non-Alberta, bullet point.


5. I'm sure everyone was expecting a lot of babies to be named "Barack" this year. But, there is one political power couple whose recent success has spawned a baby naming boom, as far away as England!


6. Given how this blog started, how could I not love an anonymous Alberta Liberal blog? Centre Bloq is new to the blogging scene, and is funny, smart, and willing to critique both the provincial and federal parties when they deserve to be criticized. Check it out.


7. Answer: They both blew up the General Hospital.