Another Day, another shuffle

It's been a busy week for Cabinet shuffles - first Alberta, then Ontario, now the feds. Assuming this was more than a "hey! look over here!" ploy to shift attention away from prorogation, what should we make of Harper's moves?

Well, even though 10 ministers change jobs, it doesn't feel like a big shuffle. The only new face is future "stump-the-At-Issue-Pannel-picture" Rob Moore. Sure, there are a few promotions and demotions - Lisa Raitt gets bumped down to Labour, where she will presumably do less damage, while Rona Ambrose gets promoted to Public Works after a few years in...beats me - no one's seen or heard from her since 2006. So I guess she's served her time in purgatory.

Oh, and Diane Ablonczy moves from an enjoyable tourism portfolio over to Seniors Affairs. Let that be a cautionary warning for any other Harper Cabmins thinking about showing any sort of support for the gay community.

But, on the whole, the Cabinet doesn't look a lot different. Stelmach and McGuinty went for face lifts - Harper seems content with a new haircut.

Looking at some of that fine tuning, the two moves getting the most ink are Christian Paradis to Natural Resources and Stockwell Day to Treasury Board. On Paradis, the thinking is that Quebecers will feel better about a Quebecer selling them on oilsands expansion, than an Albertan. Or, at the very least, Paradis will be able to spar with Gilles Duceppe on that issue.

I'm not sure Stockwell Day's move to Treasury Board in itself means the Tories are preparing for a round of cuts, but the Conservatives are spinning it that way, and that likely means Flaherty will be more restrained in his next budget. As an aside, I did enjoy hearing Stock refer to the stimulus program as the "Action Canada Plan" - clearly there hasn't been enough government advertising to get the message out!

'Tis the Season to Shuffle

You know, it occurs to me I have more to say about a PC Cabinet shuffle in a province I don't live in, than on McGuinty's shuffle today. Perhaps I'll make following Ontario politics closer my New Years resolution for 2010.

So I'll be sure to update this post with links to some solid post-shuffle analysis from people who know what they're talking about.

As for my take, a large scale shuffle was definitely needed. Let's be honest, McGuinty has lost some big guns, and his 2009 was about as good as Tiger Woods'. This move lets Dalton recalibrate and refocus. Moreover, there's been some talk of a new throne speech when Queen's Park resumes sitting, although with proroguing on the "not hot" list for 2010, that may not be in the cards.

Beyond that, I won't comment much on the individual moves. Brad Duguid is the big winner, taking over Energy (making him the point man on the Green Energy Act's implementation) - everyone I know in the know speaks highly of him and the work he did in Aboriginal Affairs. Eric Hoskins is an excellent choice for Citizenship and Immigration. There's also been some speculation that one of the combo ministries could be split to let Glen Murray in after the by election, which would be a welcome addition.

But while Alberta's shuffle was designed to signal a new (rightward) shift, I don't really get the sense this one was designed to send a big message to the electorate. Rather, this was about McGuinty putting in place the team he wants selling his government in the lead-up to the 2011 provincial election.


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Broken Toews

Rumours are flying that Vic Toews, Minister of Whatever-The-Hell-He-Was-Shuffled-Out-Of-Justice-To, will soon be appointed as a federal judge in Manitoba...or not.

While some will cry about patronage, anything that gets Vic Toews out of Ottawa can't be that bad, so I don't have a huge problem with this. What it does mean is that, after nine months of non-stop election speculation, the media will soon move on to their second favourite topic - cabinet shuffle speculation!

Cabinet Shuffle

In most places, the first cabinet after an election is called a "new" Cabinet. In Alberta? It's called a cabinet shuffle. And, even as far as cabinet shuffles go, this one was minor with only two ministers changing portfolios. A few thoughts on the new PC cabinet:

1. By most standards, representing the two cities that make up two thirds of Alberta's population with under 40% of the cabinet spots, would be a slight. After only placing three Calgarians and one Edmontonian in his first Cabinet, this is likely enough to get Ed rave reviews.

2. Likewise, the seven women in this Cabinet is a massive jump from the two who made his first Cabinet. Of note, Iris Evans gets Finance.

3. The Cabinet has ballooned to 24, after Stelmach promised to cut its size during the leadership race. In addition, there are 10 parliamentary assistants (think Parliamentary Secretaries) and 5 cabinet committee chairs. So, in other words, if you're a Tory MLA who didn't get something today, you're in the minority.

4. Guy Boutlier is the only person dumped from Cabinet. Ouch.

5. Stelmach's most effective Minister, Dave Hancock, gets shuffled out of health, and into Education.

6. The "giant-killer killer", Alison Redford, winds up in Justice. Not bad for a rookie and it sure beats being a backbench MP in Ottawa, which she would have been had she beaten Rob Anders for the Calgary West nomination when she ran against him.


So, from the optics perspective, the only real knock Stelmach will get is from increasing the size of the Cabinet. Might be a good place to start the attacks if the ALP want to portray themselves as the fiscally conservative alternative in Alberta.

Shuffle Bored

Actually, it's looking like it won't be a boring shuffle at all, but I really wanted to use that as a title...

From every indication, it will be a major shuffle which means I was wrong that it would be a small shuffle, although I was only off by four days on the date. I'm tempted to give myself some credit for successfully predicting James Moore's exclusion from Cabinet but that's about as easy as saying "Rob Anders won't be in Cabinet", so I don't think it should count.

Anyways, the swearing in ceremony will be at 4:30 this afternoon. Kady O'Malley seems to have the best mix of inside info and obsessive blog updates, so I'd check her blog out for those of you who are so excited over the prospect of a Cabinet Shuffle that you can't concentrate at work. Early buzz appears to indicate movement involving MacKay, Bernier and Prentice.


UPDATE: O'Connor to Revenue, MacKay to Defense, Prentice to Industry, and Bernier to Foreign Affairs. 9 Ministers change portfolio and Ablonczkczxzzzy finally gets into Cabinet. Full thoughts later.


Random Comments: (to be updated throughout the afternoon/evening)

-The best lines from Kady O'Malley's blog:

Update 3:32pm... Maxime Bernier - probably Foreign Affairs - and his surprisingly hot wife. At least, I hope she's his wife.

Update 3:38pm... Okay, apparently *not* his wife. Bernier, that is. I'm thinking girlfriend, though, since now that I think about it, he's a suave divorce. Interesting dating technique: inviting her to your swearing-in.

-One reporter asked Harper a question about why he did the shuffle and he answered that Carole Skelton's departure made it necessary. Uh-huh. And since Gordon O'Connor was the most obvious choice for revenue, everything else just fell into place...

-One reporter wastes a question on toy safety, asking if Steve is concerned about his children. Harper looks confused since, I'm guessing, his kids have never owned toys in their lives.

-All in all, I think the big shuffle is a smart move. Mix it up in some troublesome portfolios and get ready to hit the fall with fresh faces, a throne speech, and some new priorities.

-Bernier in Foreign Affairs is probably because they'll need him to sell Afghanistan there. And, like Barbara Yaffe said on Newsworld, he's a "good dresser and kind of cute", so I guess he's a logical replacement for MacKay.

MacKay to Industry (e3)

More insane Cabinet shuffle speculation:

Several Conservative sources suggest the most senior ministries could be in for a housecleaning next week.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has summoned every minister to Ottawa on Monday morning.

Sources say Harper could shuffle more than a dozen cabinet positions to put a new face on his year-and-a-half old Conservative government.

Several of the most senior ministries are likely to change hands, including Defence, Foreign Affairs, Health and Industry.

More than a dozen changes? Uh-huh. In other news, rumour has it that a seven team trade that will see Rick Nash, Jarome Iginla, Chris Pronger, and Roberto Luongo switch teams is in the works.

Bold prediction. Gordon O'Connor is gone. And James Moore will probably get screwed over, as he always does. Above and beyond that, who knows?

Defense Pool

If you're like me and your hockey pool isn't going great, why not try your luck at the "Gordon O'Connor shuffle pool". Simply pick who the next Minister of Defense will be and when the shuffle will occur and I will use some arbitrary method to pick a winner.

And if you think Harper is a big Tammy Wynette fan and will stand by his man on this one, well then, feel free to pick 2014 for the shuffle...or pick a Liberal to be the next Minister of Defense.