Today in Totally Useless Polling
The Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald have released polling information on the Alberta PC and Alberta Liberal leadership races, giving us valuable information about who is winning...among people who will not vote in the contest.
First, the numbers:
PCs
Mar 12%
Morton 8%
Redford 6%
Orman 4.7%
Horner 4.7%
Griffiths 1.5%
Liberals
Sherman 9%
Blakeman 6.5%
MacDonald 5.4%
Harvey 2.6%
Payne 2.1%
While this is all very interesting, the reality is only 3% of Albertans voted in the last PC leadership race (which, in fairness, isn't much below the province's voter turnout rate in recent elections). For the Liberals? The number is 0.2%, and that's only because I rounded it up.
So, of the 900 people who took part in this survey, there are probably under 30 who will vote in the PC race...and maybe 1 who will take the time to vote for a new Grit boss.
That's not to say we should completely ignore what the general public thinks. After all, despite what some recent decisions might lead you to believe, most parties try to pick leaders who will appeal to the public at large. So a survey measuring how familiar voters are with the candidates and what they think of them isn't a complete waste of space.
But there's absolutely zero benefit in using something like this to try and figure out who is leading.
First, the numbers:
PCs
Mar 12%
Morton 8%
Redford 6%
Orman 4.7%
Horner 4.7%
Griffiths 1.5%
Liberals
Sherman 9%
Blakeman 6.5%
MacDonald 5.4%
Harvey 2.6%
Payne 2.1%
While this is all very interesting, the reality is only 3% of Albertans voted in the last PC leadership race (which, in fairness, isn't much below the province's voter turnout rate in recent elections). For the Liberals? The number is 0.2%, and that's only because I rounded it up.
So, of the 900 people who took part in this survey, there are probably under 30 who will vote in the PC race...and maybe 1 who will take the time to vote for a new Grit boss.
That's not to say we should completely ignore what the general public thinks. After all, despite what some recent decisions might lead you to believe, most parties try to pick leaders who will appeal to the public at large. So a survey measuring how familiar voters are with the candidates and what they think of them isn't a complete waste of space.
But there's absolutely zero benefit in using something like this to try and figure out who is leading.
Labels: Alberta PC leadership race, ALP leadership race, polls say the darndest things
posted by calgarygrit at
6:00 PM
4 Comments:
Lol. Maybe the ALP should follow the lead of their federal cousins when it comes to choosing leaders: write down a set of rules, then select the leader by a different set of rules. Write down a new set of rules, and well, host a phone call to change the rules so that a new leader can be appointed on an interim basis.
I had been wondering if that process is what Sheila Copps was referring to when she commented that after all her years in the LPC there are some things about how the Party operates that she doesn't know. (The article was about her potential run for the Presidency of the Party.)
Polling popular opinion on a leadership selection contest is at least an interesting idea.
By
Anonymous, at 9:37 PM
I agree about the uselessness of this poll. It really doesn't mean anything. What I found of value in the poll was the voter support for parties (which I wrote about on my blog today).
The survey shows decided support for Alberta’s political parties at:
Progressive Conservative 43.3%
Wildrose 13.1%
Liberal 10.9%
NDP 10.9%
Alberta Party 1.7%
These results are difficult to interpret without seeing the regional breakdowns and a lot will depend on who the governing Progressive Conservatives (and to a much lesser extent, the Liberal Party) choose as their next leader this Fall.
By
daveberta, at 9:42 PM
Dave - Agreed. It's really hard to judge the Liberals and PCs without a leader.
But those are certainly disheartening numbers for the Wildrose Alliance.
By
calgarygrit, at 4:06 PM
"But those are certainly disheartening numbers for the Wildrose Alliance."
To say nothing of the Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party.
By
Brian Henry, at 4:59 PM
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