Sunday, September 11, 2011

The Alberta Test Drive

No surprise, as Raj Sherman wins the Alberta Liberal leadership race on the first ballot:

Raj Sherman: 54% (4684 votes)
Hugh MacDonald: 26% (2239 votes)
Laurie Blakeman: 9% (854 votes)
Bill Harvey: 7% (626 votes)
Bruce Payne: 2% (197 votes)

As I wrote on Friday, this leadership race deserved watching, even outside Alberta, since it was the first in Canada to be run on a supporter system. The vote was open to all Liberal supporters, not just party members.

So how did the test drive go?

The number most will look at is 8,640 - the number of Albertans who voted, nearly double the total in the 2008 race. Of course, you take Sherman out of the equation and we're back to 2008 levels. I have anecdotal evidence to suggest some supporters wouldn't have taken out memberships, but if we're being honest about it, the new system clearly didn't lead to a stampede of interest in the Alberta grits.

What it did do was get the party contact information for 27,000 Albertans. Even if only a fraction take lawnsigns, volunteer, or donate money in the next election, that's a win.

But the most telling number in this little primary experiment is probably 626 - the number of votes Bill Harvey collected. Whenever I pitch the supporter system to Ontario Liberals, their biggest concern is that right-wing special interest groups will take over the party. I never really understood this, since there's nothing to stop them from paying $5 or $10 a head for memberships now. If anything, the primary system makes a takeover more difficult because it means more votes are needed to win. But the fear exists and, up until yesterday, there wasn't a good case study to dispute it.

Harvey was endorsed by Craig Chandler's PGIB group, yet he was a non-factor in this contest. If a sickly provincial Liberal Party had no problem fighting off a right-wing insurgency in Alberta, it seems clear the federal grits have little to fear from a supporter system.

No, this wouldn't solve all that plagues the LPC, because a lot of problems plague the LPC. But the Alberta test-drive shows it works, with little downside.

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Friday, September 09, 2011

This Week in Alberta - The Liberals Pick a Leader


It will be a busy fall politically, with provincial elections in Ontario, Saskatchewan, PEI, Newfoundland, and Manitoba. Although we likely won't see an Alberta vote until 2012, the province will get a new Premier, thanks to Ed Stelmach's surprise resignation in January. The first round of voting takes place on September 17th, and assuming no one gets the coveted 50% + 1, the three finalists will square off in a steer wrassling contest on October 1st to determine the winner.

Alberta's official opposition also finds itself in a leadership contest, with the winner being crowned tomorrow from the following list of candidates:

Laurie Blakeman: website, profile
Bill Harvey: website, profile
Hugh MacDonald: website, profile
Bruce Payne: website, profile
Raj Sherman: website, profile

The announcement likely won't get a ton of media coverage - after all, if media reports are to be believed, former PC MLA Raj Sherman is heading for an easy first ballot victory. And let's be honest, Alberta Liberal leadership contests usually turn out to be about as important in the scheme of things as Bloc Quebecois nomination meetings in Mount Royal.

But I'll still be watching the results tomorrow with interest, for a few reasons:

1. Despite the high number of supporters Sherman signed up, it remains to be seen how many will actually vote and how many will actually vote for him. Wednesday's bizarre tweet from Sherman only confirms this:


2. This is the first trial run of a primary-style "supporter system" in Canada, so politicos will be watching to see how many supporters actually take the time to vote. The Alberta Grits drew 4,500 votes when they picked a leader in 2008 - if they can triple that number, support for the system could pick up outside Alberta.

3. With Craig Chandler's ultra-Conservative PGIB backing Bill Harvey, the supporter system is getting a real test on just how "takeover proof" it is. If Harvey wins or comes close to the top, federal grits wouldn't dream of touching the system for at least a decade.

4. The ALP caucus is notorious for internal feuds, so it will be interesting to see whether or not the defeated candidates take their loss in stride. Hugh MacDonald has already raised doubts about the supporter list (without offering any proof) - if the defeated can't rally behind the winner, they might all find themselves out of work a year from now.

5. Finally, although a Liberal victory in Alberta seems far fetched, fanciful, ridiculous, or any synonym of your choosing, with the divided right the Alberta Liberals will be relevant in the next election. Their level of relevancy remains to be seen, but in an unpredictable election that might very well result in a minority government, it would be foolish not to pay attention to a party almost certain to pick up 20% to 30% of the vote.

I can't say I have a horse in this race. All five candidates bring their own unique set of skills and liabilities to the table. But I'll certainly be watching the result with interest tomorrow.

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Thursday, September 01, 2011

ALP Leadership Candidate Profiles: Everyone Take a Step to the Right

The Alberta Liberals will be selecting a new leader on September 10th, from among 5 candidates: Laurie Blakeman, Hugh MacDonald, Raj Sherman, Bruce Payne, and Bill Harvey.

Today, the final part of a series profiling the candidates. (Previously: Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Hugh MacDonald, Laurie Blakeman)



BILL HARVEY




Background: Harvey was a Campaign Coordinator for Laurence Decore's leadership bid in 1988, and dropped Decore's name nine times in the open letter declaring his candidacy. So for those of you trying to design an ALP leadership debate drinking game, you're welcome.

Harvey ran as a Liberal candidate in both the 2004 and 2008 elections, and made history the second time, becoming the first Liberal to be ever endorsed by Craig Chandler's ultra-conservative PGIB group (for those unfamiliar with Chandler, here's some delightful background about him).

In the real world, Harvey works in Calgary, in the Financial Services Industry.

Video: Harvey wasn't a declared candidate at this May's ALP convention, so I didn't get a chance to interview him. However, you can view a video of Bill on his website.

Online: Harvey has the basics and a functional website, but has a modest online presence. Follow the links to see his Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Can he win? Harvey is the biggest wild card in this contest - and that's saying a lot about a leadership race that includes Raj Sherman. While Harvey's PGIB connection may hurt him among some Liberals, it's impossible to deny Chandler's organization has the ability to sign up hundreds, if not thousands, of supporters in Calgary if they put their mind to it. I have no way of knowing if they're heeding Craig's call to support Harvey - after all, most PGIB members would sooner listen to "Friday" on repeat in the 5th corner of hell before being even remotely associated with the Liberal Party...but it would be presumptuous to rule out Harvey as an also-ran.

My Take: Harvey is the only candidate I haven't met, so there's only so much I can say about him. He does, however, appear to be a capable speaker from what I've seen online.

As you've no doubt figured out by now, Harvey has made no secret about his rightward leanings. Included in his policy platform is "creating a provincial police force, a freeze and review on bureaucracy spending, tossing corporate welfare programs, more charter schools, defending the oil and gas industry, and tough new child pornography laws". Some of these are certainly valid proposals, but they're not exactly the kinds of things you'll hear from Laurie Blakeman's platform.

So if you think the ALP needs to take a giant step to the right, Harvey is probably your man. Personally, I think the Alberta Liberals need to break the perception they're a tax and spend party (when they're clearly not), but Harvey's PGIB connection and rhetoric worries me. That's probably unfair to Bill - after all, he's been an active supporter of the ALP for over 20 years and has been approved as a candidate by the party establishment twice. And perhaps a rightward shift is the only way the Liberals will ever form government.

But without knowing more about him, he'd most likely rank 5th on my phantom ballot.

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Monday, August 01, 2011

Craig Chandler Supports the Liberals

This week's sign of the apocalypse - an e-mail sent out today by Craig Chandler to all PGIB members:

From: "PGIB Head Office"
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:33:02 -0600
To: Craig Chandler

ReplyTo: "PGIB Head Office"
Subject: A Serious Leadership Message For Albertans! - This Email Is URGENT In Nature - NOW

PLEASE VOTE IN THE ALBERTA LIBERAL LEADERSHIP RACE
Seriously! This Is NOT A Joke!

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Dear Friends,

I know when you read the words above you almost had a heart attack and were scared, been there, done that. I actually threw up about the whole situation. Folks, you know me and I am as solidly small 'c' conservative as they come, thus, I am asking for your trust. After the initial shock of seeing a Progressive Group for Independent Business (PGIB) logo promoting that you take part in a Liberal leadership race and actually read this letter, you will understand.

[...]

However, the main reason for our letter to you is because we think we need to hedge our bets. With the Alberta Progressive Conservative and the Wildrose Alliance Parties splitting each others vote, this forces us to have a well thought out strategy for the upcoming election. If the wrong person becomes leader of the Alberta Liberal Party and the party manages to crawl up the middle and form government, we are in serious, serious trouble as a province!

That is why we are asking you to register to support Bill Harvey who is seeking to become leader of the Alberta Liberal Party. I know what you are thinking, but, keep reading as this is really, really important for the future of this province. You do not have to be a member of the Alberta Liberal Party to vote so this is a real opportunity for the movement.

Bill Harvey is a long time PGIB member and his views are Classical Liberal in flavour or as what we refer to in the modern day as small 'c' conservative. Bill Harvey's policies of less government, lower taxes and political accountability are of the fiscally responsible Laurence Decore era. His view on eliminating Section 3 of the Alberta Human Rights Commission show that he values freedom of speech and freedom of religion. Bill Harvey's policies on putting Alberta first with an Alberta Provincial Police force, controlling our own immigration to his promotion of a Triple E Senate and defense of our oil & gas industry show that he will be a defender of the west.

What is also refreshing about Bill Harvey is that he is NOT a federa l Liberal! How anyone could be supporter of a party that is the enemy of this province is beyond me?


For those not familiar with Alberta politics, Craig Chandler is a colourful fellow who does things like organize fundraisers where you can shoot your gun at Liberal logos. In 2007, he was stripped of his PC nomination in Calgary Egmont in response to comments where he basically said Albertans should either "adapt" and vote Conservative, or leave the province. You can read a good recap of that saga here. These days, Craig runs the PGIB - the Progressive Group of Independent Business who are basically against everything progressive.

Well, it appears Craig himself has adapted, and is now supporting the Liberals and urging PGIB members to do likewise, in a bid to elect Bill Harvey ALP leader.

We'll find out in September how effective they've been, but this will make for an excellent case study in the impact of the primary system. As you'll recall, the ALP opened their doors to all Albertans in May, switching to a system where you didn't need a party membership to vote for the leader, or nominate candidates.

Many federal Liberals have been musing about this idea, and it seems likely the question will come to a vote at the January convention. I'm a huge proponent of open primaries, but detractors almost all point to the potential for takeover from right wing groups as the downside. If Harvey wins in Alberta or comes close, that would pretty much kill the idea of a primary system federally. However, if an organizationally weak Alberta Liberal Party can withstand the PGIB assault in Conservative heartland, it would be a clear sign that the federal Liberals have nothing to fear from opening their doors to all Canadians.

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